RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River DENSITY_EARLY PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 875101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 875102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 3.440 0.435 0.749 3.496 0.087 0.522 2 875012 1899 1990 92 2.983 0.365 -0.246 2.373 0.070 0.718 3 875021 1738 1990 253 2.878 0.340 0.684 3.563 0.077 0.629 4 875022 1720 1990 271 3.209 0.488 0.693 3.151 0.074 0.829 5 875031 1775 1990 216 3.530 0.377 0.508 4.126 0.083 0.512 6 875032 1801 1990 190 3.865 0.490 0.805 3.485 0.079 0.650 7 875041 1852 1990 139 3.687 0.476 0.417 3.214 0.104 0.443 8 875042 1860 1982 123 3.735 0.390 0.427 2.797 0.085 0.468 9 875051 1883 1990 108 2.958 0.234 -0.185 3.179 0.064 0.522 10 875052 1890 1990 101 2.994 0.257 1.108 5.031 0.070 0.445 11 875071 1843 1897 55 3.505 0.320 0.134 3.094 0.070 0.588 12 875072 1843 1990 148 3.679 0.335 0.507 4.208 0.074 0.496 13 875081 1885 1990 106 3.074 0.244 1.284 5.961 0.061 0.544 14 875082 1876 1990 115 3.056 0.371 1.022 3.457 0.056 0.788 15 875091 1753 1990 238 3.877 0.492 1.248 5.102 0.084 0.594 16 875092 1766 1951 186 4.100 0.419 0.612 3.383 0.079 0.519 17 875101 1762 1935 174 3.706 0.377 0.376 2.976 0.084 0.423 18 875102 1760 1935 176 3.572 0.353 0.894 5.009 0.083 0.359 19 875111 1797 1990 194 3.660 0.351 0.103 2.961 0.072 0.510 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 3.947 0.397 0.185 2.706 0.075 0.573 21 875131 1777 1990 214 3.092 0.339 0.529 3.148 0.088 0.440 22 875132 1808 1990 183 2.934 0.309 1.077 5.479 0.086 0.389 23 875142 1786 1860 75 3.761 0.323 0.665 2.890 0.078 0.396 24 875143 1798 2010 213 3.494 0.538 -3.866 26.421 0.092 0.532 25 875172 1918 1990 73 3.354 0.246 0.085 2.655 0.067 0.309 26 875181 1922 1990 69 3.094 0.369 0.567 2.746 0.085 0.512 27 875182 1922 1990 69 2.979 0.339 0.324 3.212 0.068 0.688 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 3.413 0.369 0.397 4.438 0.078 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.368 0.080 0.940 4.494 0.010 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 3.494 0.365 0.529 3.214 0.078 0.519 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.632 0.079 0.522 1.198 0.014 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 54 2.878 0.234 -3.866 2.373 0.056 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 3.065 0.329 0.255 2.968 0.070 0.444 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 3.697 0.408 0.777 4.167 0.084 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 4.100 0.538 1.284 26.421 0.104 0.829 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.206 0.188 0.010 -0.289 3.372 -0.373 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.373 SERIES 875032 AND 875082 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 875181 AND 875182 69 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.290 0.360 0.256 0.225 0.287 0.330 0.262 0.291 SDEV 0.164 0.192 0.218 0.200 0.216 0.255 0.230 0.192 SERR 0.095 0.032 0.025 0.023 0.021 0.022 0.018 0.013 EPS 0.769 0.873 0.833 0.824 0.884 0.915 0.892 0.903 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 3.485 0.257 0.667 4.041 0.060 0.480 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.078 -0.064 0.669 49 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.86 1.00 1.07 1.93 3.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.10 0.00 0.81 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.478 0.412 0.259 0.299 0.200 0.234 0.136 0.202 0.131 0.194 PACF 0.478 0.237 -0.006 0.148 -0.012 0.081 -0.042 0.093 -0.012 0.075 95% C.L. 0.117 0.142 0.157 0.163 0.170 0.173 0.178 0.179 0.182 0.184 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.273 0.364 0.239 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057326 3.41323447 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01158408 2.40742064 3 875021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00241505 3.18489265 4 875022 1 1.96248460 0.00429817 0.00000000 2.05296445 5 875031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093865 3.42787862 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00348673 3.58306289 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00188775 3.55483580 8 875042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018863 3.74632955 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122648 2.89602828 10 875052 1 0.14596877 0.00912306 0.00000000 2.89892554 11 875071 1 0.77000564 0.04637133 0.00000000 3.23278666 12 875072 1 1.37696755 0.24000297 0.00000000 3.64461970 13 875081 1 1.18524003 0.00300212 0.00000000 2.06027865 14 875082 1 1.28770375 0.03597347 0.00000000 2.75509953 15 875091 1 1.19248927 0.07855889 0.00000000 3.81592035 16 875092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00140715 3.96848536 17 875101 1 0.48803160 0.02332675 0.00000000 3.58994961 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00146671 3.44790173 19 875111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034250 3.62619352 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291782 3.62340713 21 875131 1 0.22742333 0.02625392 0.00000000 3.05201912 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007860 2.92681265 23 875142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00297923 3.64772248 24 875143 1 0.49491054 0.09036281 0.00000000 3.46951580 25 875172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151518 3.29777408 26 875181 1 2.20018148 0.00724918 0.00000000 1.36878109 27 875182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01030471 3.33994031 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.126 0.740 3.451 0.087 0.516 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.079 -0.244 2.680 0.070 0.416 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.099 0.654 3.790 0.076 0.490 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.091 0.603 3.295 0.074 0.488 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.106 0.583 3.916 0.082 0.501 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.117 0.866 4.108 0.081 0.591 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.129 0.731 3.821 0.103 0.430 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.104 0.415 2.774 0.085 0.464 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.077 -0.159 3.097 0.062 0.510 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.086 1.111 4.853 0.069 0.432 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.073 -0.484 3.172 0.069 0.372 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.083 0.363 4.442 0.073 0.428 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.073 1.138 4.936 0.061 0.432 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.061 0.359 3.160 0.056 0.235 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.119 1.571 6.921 0.084 0.541 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.100 0.529 3.216 0.078 0.500 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.097 0.640 3.573 0.084 0.352 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.097 0.666 4.638 0.084 0.342 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.096 0.185 2.973 0.072 0.509 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.088 0.275 3.128 0.074 0.450 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.108 0.572 3.174 0.088 0.420 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.105 1.065 5.430 0.086 0.387 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.084 0.457 2.675 0.077 0.363 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.154 -3.868 26.765 0.092 0.523 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.073 0.160 2.633 0.066 0.287 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.086 0.183 2.578 0.083 0.150 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.090 0.422 2.661 0.066 0.517 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.096 0.353 4.513 0.077 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.020 0.950 4.561 0.011 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.096 0.529 3.295 0.077 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.022 0.469 1.241 0.014 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.061 -3.868 2.578 0.056 0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.083 0.230 3.035 0.069 0.380 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.106 0.699 4.275 0.084 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.154 1.571 26.765 0.103 0.591 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.101 1.779 9.011 0.087 0.301 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.068 -0.186 2.926 0.069 0.223 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.092 0.680 3.984 0.076 0.395 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.087 0.578 3.210 0.074 0.448 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.999 0.097 0.754 4.331 0.082 0.416 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.110 0.945 4.305 0.081 0.537 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.999 0.109 0.489 3.554 0.103 0.240 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.099 0.607 3.046 0.085 0.382 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.068 -0.334 3.154 0.062 0.361 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.080 0.983 4.641 0.069 0.365 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.066 -0.547 3.655 0.068 0.243 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.081 0.274 4.529 0.073 0.395 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.070 1.197 5.159 0.061 0.399 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.060 0.388 3.264 0.056 0.226 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.114 1.465 6.544 0.084 0.504 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.092 0.464 3.312 0.078 0.407 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.088 0.683 3.686 0.084 0.234 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.092 0.641 4.725 0.084 0.261 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.086 0.069 3.239 0.072 0.397 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.081 0.447 3.357 0.074 0.343 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.103 0.657 3.467 0.088 0.364 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.102 1.031 5.340 0.086 0.350 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.072 0.401 3.195 0.077 0.164 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.154 -3.791 26.466 0.092 0.519 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.067 0.320 2.977 0.066 0.166 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.082 0.095 2.542 0.083 0.075 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.082 0.363 3.194 0.066 0.413 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.089 0.387 4.845 0.077 0.338 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.020 0.976 4.524 0.011 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.087 0.489 3.554 0.077 0.364 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.024 0.421 1.382 0.014 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.999 0.060 -3.791 2.542 0.056 0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.076 0.297 3.202 0.069 0.241 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.100 0.719 4.585 0.084 0.403 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.154 1.779 26.466 0.103 0.537 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.279 0.126 0.007 -0.356 3.118 -0.155 0.582 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.155 SERIES 875051 AND 875143 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.582 SERIES 875041 AND 875102 84 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.353 0.383 0.294 0.251 0.314 0.354 0.292 0.328 SDEV 0.150 0.199 0.188 0.182 0.203 0.209 0.193 0.171 SERR 0.086 0.033 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.018 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.816 0.884 0.858 0.844 0.896 0.923 0.905 0.917 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.993 0.062 0.230 2.996 0.062 0.232 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.205 0.103 -0.043 90 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.03 1.00 1.10 2.13 13.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.82 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.232 0.194 0.023 0.099 -0.007 0.007 -0.104 -0.029 -0.126 -0.023 PACF 0.232 0.149 -0.054 0.083 -0.039 -0.014 -0.099 0.005 -0.093 0.022 95% C.L. 0.117 0.123 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.132 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.079 0.197 0.152 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.156 0.219 0.010 0.122 0.000 0.073 -0.014 -0.001 -0.059 0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.156 2 0.125 0.200 3 0.136 0.206 -0.052 4 0.140 0.188 -0.064 0.090 5 0.142 0.186 -0.061 0.093 -0.021 6 0.143 0.183 -0.058 0.086 -0.026 0.036 7 0.144 0.183 -0.057 0.085 -0.022 0.039 -0.020 8 0.143 0.184 -0.057 0.087 -0.024 0.045 -0.016 -0.030 9 0.142 0.183 -0.055 0.086 -0.020 0.042 -0.007 -0.023 -0.045 10 0.143 0.184 -0.055 0.085 -0.019 0.039 -0.006 -0.030 -0.050 0.035 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1541.71 1536.49 1526.65 1527.85 1527.49 1529.36 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1530.98 1532.86 1534.61 1536.02 1537.66 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.125 0.200 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.125 0.215 0.052 0.050 0.017 0.012 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.0008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.170 0.231 0.243 2 875012 2 0.059 0.208 0.072 3 875021 2 0.177 0.349 0.131 4 875022 2 0.237 0.368 0.192 5 875031 2 0.206 0.341 0.187 6 875032 2 0.340 0.406 0.252 7 875041 2 0.196 0.149 0.380 8 875042 2 0.175 0.345 0.136 9 875051 2 0.155 0.421 -0.129 10 875052 2 0.158 0.328 0.110 11 875071 2 0.208 0.237 0.023 12 875072 2 0.256 0.261 0.341 13 875081 2 0.174 0.402 0.032 14 875082 2 0.070 0.235 -0.040 15 875091 2 0.336 0.338 0.329 16 875092 2 0.238 0.291 0.289 17 875101 2 0.182 0.149 0.366 18 875102 2 0.127 0.204 0.221 19 875111 2 0.244 0.277 0.312 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.137 0.297 0.136 21 875131 2 0.177 0.284 0.222 22 875132 2 0.173 0.275 0.218 23 875142 2 0.064 0.132 0.195 24 875143 2 0.332 0.562 -0.083 25 875172 2 0.046 0.150 0.091 26 875181 2 0.007 0.074 0.029 27 875182 2 0.177 0.440 -0.057 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.179 0.287 0.155 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.084 0.110 0.141 MEDIAN 2 0.177 0.284 0.187 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.077 0.128 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.007 0.074 -0.129 LOWER HINGE 2 0.146 0.219 0.052 UPPER HINGE 2 0.223 0.347 0.248 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.340 0.562 0.380 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.094 1.336 7.369 0.098 0.039 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.066 -0.069 2.749 0.077 -0.004 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.083 0.727 4.352 0.091 -0.001 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.076 0.415 3.035 0.087 -0.004 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.086 0.540 4.252 0.097 -0.005 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.089 0.575 3.469 0.097 0.014 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.098 0.300 3.039 0.108 0.018 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.090 0.295 2.886 0.101 0.006 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.062 -0.324 3.064 0.071 -0.013 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.074 0.750 3.838 0.079 0.012 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.064 -0.635 3.814 0.075 0.009 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.070 0.143 3.812 0.081 0.002 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.064 0.610 3.108 0.072 0.007 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.059 0.457 3.549 0.062 -0.005 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.093 1.187 6.193 0.098 -0.010 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.080 0.279 3.385 0.090 -0.016 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.080 0.488 3.121 0.089 0.008 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.086 0.562 4.439 0.093 -0.027 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.075 0.477 3.719 0.080 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.075 0.253 3.070 0.087 -0.008 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.093 0.904 4.092 0.100 -0.010 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.093 1.508 8.035 0.097 0.019 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.070 0.260 2.777 0.082 -0.001 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.130 -1.728 24.906 0.129 -0.029 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.066 0.432 2.944 0.072 0.009 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.081 0.063 2.629 0.087 0.000 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.074 0.697 3.635 0.080 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.080 0.389 4.640 0.088 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.015 0.621 4.263 0.014 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.080 0.457 3.549 0.087 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.020 0.397 1.120 0.018 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.059 -1.728 2.629 0.062 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.070 0.256 3.052 0.080 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.090 0.653 4.172 0.097 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.130 1.508 24.906 0.129 0.039 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.326 0.114 0.006 -0.681 3.395 -0.068 0.569 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.068 SERIES 875081 AND 875101 51 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.569 SERIES 875131 AND 875132 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.363 0.425 0.376 0.354 0.370 0.365 0.331 0.366 SDEV 0.063 0.152 0.127 0.127 0.144 0.178 0.153 0.171 SERR 0.037 0.025 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.823 0.900 0.897 0.898 0.917 0.926 0.920 0.929 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.996 0.058 0.162 2.825 0.071 -0.090 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.179 0.082 -0.032 95 196 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.10 1.00 1.09 2.19 24.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.82 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 -0.066 -0.102 0.088 -0.029 0.025 -0.102 0.022 -0.104 0.095 PACF -0.089 -0.075 -0.116 0.063 -0.031 0.020 -0.089 -0.004 -0.113 0.057 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.090 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.005 -0.112 0.074 -0.033 0.020 -0.110 0.010 -0.108 0.075 PACF -0.009 -0.005 -0.112 0.073 -0.034 0.009 -0.096 -0.002 -0.105 0.052 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.013 -0.009 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.996 0.059 0.224 2.882 0.064 0.120 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.120 0.210 -0.057 0.098 -0.056 0.016 -0.134 -0.009 -0.139 0.026 PACF 0.120 0.198 -0.107 0.079 -0.046 -0.015 -0.107 0.003 -0.091 0.036 95% C.L. 0.117 0.119 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.071 0.117 0.211 -0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES