RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River WIDTH_LATE PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1923 1926 / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 875101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1883 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.173 0.105 1.763 7.443 0.256 0.679 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.177 0.083 1.376 5.570 0.261 0.705 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.086 0.033 0.916 4.285 0.221 0.699 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.118 0.122 5.735 39.633 0.250 0.753 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.140 0.083 2.719 11.772 0.275 0.533 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.147 0.122 3.528 18.660 0.285 0.496 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.123 0.050 0.974 3.449 0.293 0.436 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.113 0.047 1.087 4.216 0.273 0.612 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.115 0.046 0.957 3.521 0.230 0.723 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.116 0.080 2.647 13.244 0.299 0.701 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.146 0.049 1.371 4.401 0.327 0.086 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.112 0.040 1.725 8.513 0.252 0.483 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.151 0.059 1.658 6.462 0.231 0.592 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.161 0.085 2.370 9.978 0.229 0.671 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.130 0.176 4.311 21.831 0.305 0.920 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.119 0.078 1.645 7.116 0.321 0.688 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.071 0.032 1.154 4.930 0.300 0.619 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.085 0.040 1.073 5.174 0.293 0.626 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.077 0.049 4.632 34.406 0.245 0.488 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.074 0.047 3.021 14.422 0.275 0.688 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.068 0.032 1.553 6.796 0.231 0.738 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.092 0.044 1.484 6.252 0.276 0.604 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.135 0.055 1.106 4.901 0.243 0.539 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.099 0.055 0.739 3.175 0.282 0.747 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.110 0.052 1.834 7.030 0.245 0.581 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.129 0.042 1.513 5.523 0.272 0.236 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.145 0.035 0.805 3.760 0.218 0.327 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.119 0.065 1.989 9.869 0.266 0.592 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.031 0.034 1.272 9.129 0.031 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.118 0.050 1.553 6.462 0.272 0.619 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.047 0.038 1.412 6.224 0.045 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.068 0.032 0.739 3.175 0.218 0.086 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 95 0.096 0.043 1.097 4.651 0.244 0.515 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.143 0.081 2.509 10.875 0.289 0.700 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.177 0.176 5.735 39.633 0.327 0.920 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.311 0.238 0.013 -0.249 2.731 -0.387 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.387 SERIES 875041 AND 875143 139 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 875051 AND 875052 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.265 0.351 0.310 0.269 0.238 0.143 0.272 0.229 SDEV 0.354 0.245 0.228 0.196 0.224 0.194 0.233 0.214 SERR 0.204 0.041 0.026 0.022 0.022 0.017 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.746 0.868 0.867 0.856 0.855 0.785 0.897 0.870 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.107 0.031 1.212 4.783 0.167 0.641 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.348 0.283 0.010 106 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.80 3.19 1.00 1.17 4.36 392.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.19 0.00 0.77 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.639 0.539 0.470 0.452 0.455 0.406 0.350 0.310 0.319 0.333 PACF 0.639 0.221 0.109 0.125 0.132 0.015 -0.024 -0.006 0.065 0.073 95% C.L. 0.117 0.158 0.181 0.198 0.211 0.224 0.234 0.241 0.247 0.252 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.465 0.442 0.138 0.030 0.064 0.140 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00285229 0.30556616 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212936 0.28019205 3 875021 1 0.10050933 0.00493283 0.00000000 0.02842858 4 875022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057562 0.19647643 5 875031 1 0.15844667 0.02790370 0.00000000 0.11432509 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069182 0.20770593 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064038 0.16777603 8 875042 1 0.09148943 0.01698147 0.00000000 0.07495604 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101062 0.16985109 10 875052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149505 0.19189109 11 875071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040620 0.13462625 12 875072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034786 0.13767236 13 875081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075048 0.19071698 14 875082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078932 0.20647597 15 875091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093640 0.24168918 16 875092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097116 0.20951352 17 875101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043376 0.10823176 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052143 0.13143052 19 875111 1 0.16449104 0.03822609 0.00000000 0.05505805 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 1 0.18098690 0.03586584 0.00000000 0.05142771 21 875131 1 0.08919244 0.01589000 0.00000000 0.04330429 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051389 0.13968234 23 875142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00137212 0.18734054 24 875143 1 0.20527875 0.07215032 0.00000000 0.08641451 25 875172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00156547 0.16764840 26 875181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046730 0.14519608 27 875182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032956 0.15689684 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.012 0.375 1.614 5.935 0.254 0.360 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.306 1.365 5.822 0.249 0.424 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.304 1.295 6.296 0.220 0.461 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.004 0.699 5.198 35.572 0.250 0.690 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.570 4.205 25.702 0.274 0.506 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.993 0.782 5.013 35.125 0.295 0.469 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.995 0.335 1.115 3.966 0.291 0.250 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.377 1.273 4.629 0.271 0.507 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.996 0.282 0.878 3.159 0.224 0.439 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.991 0.492 3.048 17.382 0.297 0.548 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.330 1.321 4.219 0.321 0.065 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.999 0.337 2.277 11.488 0.251 0.420 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.997 0.336 1.538 6.746 0.229 0.500 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.995 0.482 2.632 11.910 0.228 0.633 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.017 0.934 3.661 17.773 0.305 0.859 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.042 0.490 0.956 4.338 0.320 0.532 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.997 0.314 1.050 5.740 0.299 0.203 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.002 0.342 0.491 3.546 0.293 0.291 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.999 0.291 1.179 5.917 0.245 0.246 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.001 0.294 0.995 5.045 0.275 0.070 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.316 0.665 2.901 0.231 0.480 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.001 0.354 1.838 8.834 0.275 0.288 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.997 0.352 1.911 8.170 0.241 0.366 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.999 0.496 0.639 3.031 0.281 0.664 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.316 1.748 7.883 0.243 0.227 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.314 1.253 4.402 0.268 0.179 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.241 1.188 4.881 0.215 0.296 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.001 0.410 1.865 9.645 0.265 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.010 0.166 1.289 9.097 0.031 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.337 1.321 5.917 0.268 0.424 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.003 0.172 1.012 5.791 0.050 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.991 0.241 0.491 2.901 0.215 0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.997 0.314 1.082 4.370 0.242 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.001 0.486 2.094 10.161 0.292 0.507 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.042 0.934 5.198 35.572 0.321 0.859 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.994 0.341 1.717 6.516 0.253 0.264 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.998 0.294 1.281 5.528 0.248 0.382 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.996 0.280 1.205 6.003 0.220 0.388 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.987 0.591 4.885 33.233 0.250 0.650 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.994 0.507 3.838 21.925 0.275 0.437 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.988 0.627 4.139 27.092 0.296 0.408 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.997 0.288 0.893 3.367 0.292 0.064 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.998 0.369 1.364 5.095 0.271 0.477 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.996 0.247 0.756 2.908 0.224 0.286 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.988 0.385 2.361 13.322 0.296 0.396 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.998 0.319 1.297 4.246 0.321 0.001 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.996 0.294 1.832 8.761 0.251 0.314 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.995 0.255 1.269 5.911 0.230 0.193 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.993 0.334 2.007 8.871 0.230 0.395 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.950 0.659 3.090 14.308 0.305 0.800 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.978 0.353 1.067 5.482 0.320 0.250 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.999 0.309 0.985 5.367 0.299 0.170 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.996 0.325 0.490 3.584 0.293 0.205 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.999 0.286 1.248 6.349 0.245 0.216 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.999 0.289 1.178 5.774 0.275 0.013 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.997 0.301 0.642 3.060 0.231 0.417 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.997 0.339 1.937 10.122 0.275 0.237 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.994 0.309 1.870 8.130 0.241 0.241 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.985 0.405 1.081 5.278 0.282 0.494 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.999 0.311 1.690 7.384 0.243 0.225 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.998 0.303 1.281 4.641 0.268 0.124 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.999 0.232 1.507 7.033 0.214 0.245 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.993 0.354 1.738 8.863 0.265 0.307 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.010 0.112 1.077 7.391 0.031 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.996 0.311 1.297 6.003 0.268 0.264 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.004 0.070 0.774 3.629 0.051 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.950 0.232 0.490 2.908 0.214 0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.993 0.292 1.130 5.187 0.242 0.211 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.998 0.361 1.904 8.816 0.293 0.402 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.999 0.659 4.885 33.233 0.321 0.800 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.177 0.148 0.008 0.332 2.849 -0.160 0.644 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.160 SERIES 875092 AND 875172 34 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.644 SERIES 875051 AND 875052 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.329 0.280 0.217 0.199 0.184 0.202 0.214 0.175 SDEV 0.255 0.196 0.185 0.155 0.185 0.177 0.190 0.181 SERR 0.147 0.033 0.021 0.018 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.800 0.826 0.801 0.800 0.809 0.847 0.864 0.828 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.919 0.189 0.524 3.416 0.172 0.382 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.360 0.230 0.014 108 183 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.87 3.36 1.00 1.17 4.53 58.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.22 0.00 0.74 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.381 0.355 0.255 0.188 0.171 0.118 0.059 0.023 -0.070 -0.024 PACF 0.381 0.245 0.074 0.014 0.042 -0.001 -0.046 -0.038 -0.108 0.022 95% C.L. 0.117 0.133 0.146 0.152 0.155 0.157 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.202 0.287 0.246 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.363 0.389 0.271 0.168 0.119 0.105 0.013 -0.016 -0.120 -0.147 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.363 2 0.255 0.297 3 0.231 0.276 0.081 4 0.235 0.287 0.090 -0.040 5 0.234 0.289 0.097 -0.034 -0.024 6 0.234 0.290 0.094 -0.043 -0.031 0.031 7 0.236 0.288 0.092 -0.037 -0.013 0.045 -0.062 8 0.233 0.291 0.091 -0.039 -0.008 0.062 -0.049 -0.058 9 0.225 0.284 0.099 -0.040 -0.013 0.074 -0.011 -0.028 -0.129 10 0.215 0.282 0.098 -0.034 -0.014 0.070 -0.003 -0.005 -0.111 -0.081 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2237.04 2197.89 2173.10 2173.18 2174.71 2176.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2178.27 2179.14 2180.16 2177.24 2177.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.255 0.297 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 126.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.255 0.362 0.168 0.150 0.088 0.067 0.043 0.031 0.021 0.0145 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.121 0.209 0.219 2 875012 2 0.153 0.379 0.017 3 875021 2 0.163 0.343 0.118 4 875022 2 0.430 0.599 0.078 5 875031 2 0.258 0.318 0.273 6 875032 2 0.250 0.285 0.310 7 875041 2 0.015 0.060 0.069 8 875042 2 0.233 0.446 0.067 9 875051 2 0.134 0.248 0.132 10 875052 2 0.159 0.382 0.039 11 875071 2 0.012 0.001 -0.107 12 875072 2 0.107 0.285 0.091 13 875081 2 0.060 0.177 0.082 14 875082 2 0.179 0.393 0.013 15 875091 2 0.658 0.635 0.206 16 875092 2 0.164 0.169 0.329 17 875101 2 0.047 0.157 0.076 18 875102 2 0.142 0.139 0.322 19 875111 2 0.063 0.206 0.105 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.013 0.011 0.110 21 875131 2 0.197 0.355 0.150 22 875132 2 0.103 0.196 0.173 23 875142 2 0.085 0.201 0.168 24 875143 2 0.252 0.466 0.058 25 875172 2 0.067 0.199 0.126 26 875181 2 0.032 0.117 0.074 27 875182 2 0.097 0.277 -0.109 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.155 0.269 0.118 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.138 0.157 0.111 MEDIAN 2 0.134 0.248 0.105 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.194 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.012 0.001 -0.109 LOWER HINGE 2 0.065 0.173 0.068 UPPER HINGE 2 0.188 0.367 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.658 0.635 0.329 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.320 1.558 5.945 0.278 0.011 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.271 1.500 7.175 0.290 -0.004 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.256 1.387 7.123 0.262 -0.001 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.008 0.419 4.427 37.000 0.334 0.045 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.001 0.437 3.324 22.418 0.347 -0.018 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.006 0.529 4.149 30.786 0.354 -0.004 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.286 0.926 3.412 0.297 0.005 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.324 0.971 4.657 0.327 0.002 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.234 0.771 3.184 0.255 -0.027 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.353 2.039 10.151 0.347 0.001 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.318 1.204 4.154 0.327 -0.002 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.278 1.728 8.811 0.287 -0.003 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.250 1.476 6.103 0.250 -0.010 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.306 1.735 7.678 0.278 -0.004 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.385 1.612 8.503 0.373 0.009 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.322 1.131 6.723 0.330 -0.002 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.304 0.884 5.274 0.327 -0.009 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.301 0.560 4.160 0.306 -0.004 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.276 1.245 6.667 0.275 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.287 1.191 5.967 0.281 -0.002 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.270 0.900 4.221 0.277 -0.012 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.324 1.978 10.124 0.305 -0.024 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.296 2.173 9.743 0.266 -0.003 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.351 1.506 6.957 0.355 0.005 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.300 1.969 9.030 0.261 -0.001 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.300 1.297 5.117 0.281 0.005 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.223 1.402 6.495 0.232 0.021 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.001 0.316 1.668 9.170 0.300 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.002 0.065 0.934 8.040 0.037 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.301 1.476 6.723 0.290 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.047 0.691 3.725 0.053 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.223 0.560 3.184 0.232 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.277 1.161 5.195 0.276 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.324 1.852 8.920 0.329 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.008 0.529 4.427 37.000 0.373 0.045 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.169 0.131 0.007 0.378 3.165 -0.127 0.605 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.127 SERIES 875071 AND 875091 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.605 SERIES 875051 AND 875052 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.328 0.299 0.228 0.188 0.183 0.176 0.193 0.168 SDEV 0.038 0.143 0.133 0.132 0.134 0.152 0.171 0.164 SERR 0.022 0.024 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.800 0.839 0.810 0.789 0.809 0.823 0.848 0.821 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.962 0.165 0.612 4.455 0.187 0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.372 0.263 -0.062 131 160 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 1.76 1.00 1.18 2.94 2365.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.26 0.00 0.69 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.018 0.043 0.001 0.048 0.038 -0.032 -0.030 -0.173 -0.103 PACF 0.007 0.018 0.043 0.000 0.047 0.036 -0.034 -0.035 -0.176 -0.105 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.048 0.039 -0.029 -0.028 -0.173 -0.104 PACF -0.001 0.000 0.042 0.000 0.048 0.037 -0.029 -0.032 -0.178 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.962 0.187 0.605 3.896 0.166 0.382 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.380 0.402 0.251 0.183 0.135 0.081 -0.015 -0.042 -0.134 -0.088 PACF 0.380 0.301 0.038 -0.016 0.004 -0.016 -0.100 -0.054 -0.104 0.015 95% C.L. 0.117 0.133 0.149 0.155 0.158 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.224 0.266 0.302 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES