RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River DENSITY_MINIMUM PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1923 1926 / 1942 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 875101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 875102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 875111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.250 0.042 1.277 4.957 0.121 0.416 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.217 0.038 -0.363 2.278 0.090 0.782 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.231 0.037 0.838 3.807 0.103 0.599 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.259 0.045 0.978 4.004 0.091 0.784 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.274 0.033 0.621 4.542 0.098 0.407 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.309 0.049 0.823 3.188 0.103 0.575 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.290 0.048 0.752 3.260 0.140 0.352 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.291 0.040 0.819 3.423 0.110 0.453 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.229 0.023 -0.084 4.050 0.068 0.573 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.225 0.021 0.573 3.102 0.083 0.305 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.277 0.034 0.905 4.248 0.099 0.441 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.300 0.035 0.665 4.290 0.093 0.447 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.237 0.025 1.649 7.002 0.077 0.555 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.237 0.039 1.420 4.445 0.081 0.764 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.321 0.051 1.011 3.911 0.116 0.487 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.344 0.053 0.932 3.857 0.110 0.609 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.313 0.041 0.901 3.705 0.112 0.293 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.300 0.040 1.431 6.152 0.108 0.323 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.310 0.036 -0.294 5.913 0.092 0.428 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.344 0.048 0.220 2.651 0.090 0.648 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.259 0.036 0.532 3.210 0.129 0.227 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.235 0.033 1.435 6.906 0.124 0.227 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.303 0.035 1.178 4.487 0.095 0.443 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.277 0.047 -2.557 18.361 0.113 0.494 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.261 0.026 0.031 2.859 0.087 0.358 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.231 0.037 0.943 3.915 0.111 0.514 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.225 0.038 1.008 4.571 0.102 0.642 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.272 0.038 0.654 4.707 0.102 0.487 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.038 0.008 0.822 2.973 0.017 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.274 0.038 0.838 4.004 0.102 0.453 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 104 0.066 0.009 0.457 1.215 0.021 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.217 0.021 -2.557 2.278 0.068 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 95 0.236 0.035 0.553 3.342 0.091 0.382 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 199 0.302 0.044 1.010 4.556 0.111 0.587 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.344 0.053 1.649 18.361 0.140 0.784 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.203 0.192 0.011 -0.468 4.249 -0.423 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.423 SERIES 875012 AND 875181 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 875071 AND 875072 55 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.379 0.314 0.356 0.235 0.263 0.365 0.291 0.251 SDEV 0.120 0.234 0.187 0.198 0.209 0.245 0.210 0.199 SERR 0.069 0.039 0.021 0.022 0.020 0.021 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.833 0.848 0.889 0.832 0.870 0.926 0.905 0.884 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.282 0.028 0.901 4.613 0.076 0.516 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.000 0.000 0.043 69 222 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.64 1.00 1.07 1.70 5.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.514 0.480 0.376 0.404 0.313 0.350 0.294 0.331 0.272 0.310 PACF 0.514 0.292 0.075 0.164 0.004 0.108 0.025 0.088 0.005 0.070 95% C.L. 0.117 0.145 0.165 0.177 0.189 0.196 0.204 0.210 0.217 0.222 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.335 0.362 0.298 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019350 0.24132824 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129736 0.15282835 3 875021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031137 0.27096742 4 875022 1 0.14003681 0.00840842 0.00000000 0.20403740 5 875031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009829 0.26331741 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046606 0.26938456 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010157 0.28303409 8 875042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029569 0.30922699 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013524 0.22284172 10 875052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002376 0.22413465 11 875071 1 0.07923599 0.06879379 0.00000000 0.25768498 12 875072 1 0.14843659 0.25602531 0.00000000 0.29656273 13 875081 1 0.04175590 0.02924431 0.00000000 0.22383413 14 875082 1 0.14521833 0.05451080 0.00000000 0.21419895 15 875091 1 0.13712472 0.09838749 0.00000000 0.31514174 16 875092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017619 0.32766637 17 875101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002996 0.31038892 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034082 0.27059463 19 875111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005551 0.30522883 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048780 0.29006252 21 875131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003468 0.25505725 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003237 0.23210412 23 875142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060910 0.28005406 24 875143 1 0.03384942 0.00930029 0.00000000 0.26223940 25 875172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027953 0.25047946 26 875181 1 0.10425334 0.05180381 0.00000000 0.20339382 27 875182 1 0.13782316 0.01402578 0.00000000 0.13738693 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.166 1.317 5.084 0.120 0.400 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.100 0.026 2.657 0.088 0.399 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.124 0.871 4.105 0.102 0.368 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.109 0.706 4.058 0.091 0.398 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.117 0.715 4.500 0.097 0.390 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.135 1.072 4.409 0.104 0.457 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.167 0.863 3.488 0.139 0.347 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.132 0.763 3.159 0.109 0.399 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.095 0.109 3.883 0.067 0.552 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.091 0.598 3.135 0.082 0.303 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.100 0.150 2.731 0.099 0.198 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.107 0.504 4.338 0.092 0.373 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.095 1.263 5.349 0.077 0.409 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.083 0.064 3.347 0.080 0.227 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.151 1.239 5.188 0.116 0.421 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.151 0.793 3.574 0.109 0.592 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.132 0.854 3.630 0.112 0.289 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.120 1.123 5.704 0.108 0.201 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.116 -0.257 5.967 0.092 0.402 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.103 0.414 3.180 0.090 0.380 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.139 0.496 3.166 0.129 0.226 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.139 1.396 6.697 0.123 0.224 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.105 0.516 3.410 0.094 0.348 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.170 -2.547 18.781 0.112 0.482 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.096 0.084 2.830 0.086 0.313 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.115 0.425 2.633 0.110 0.171 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.123 0.816 4.038 0.101 0.414 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.122 0.532 4.557 0.101 0.359 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.025 0.754 3.038 0.017 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.117 0.706 3.883 0.101 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.035 0.586 1.620 0.021 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.999 0.083 -2.547 2.633 0.067 0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.102 0.282 3.173 0.090 0.296 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.137 0.867 4.792 0.111 0.405 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.170 1.396 18.781 0.139 0.592 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.140 2.505 10.924 0.119 0.205 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.085 0.413 3.227 0.088 0.141 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.119 0.838 3.980 0.102 0.317 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.106 0.624 3.969 0.091 0.367 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.999 0.109 0.828 4.460 0.097 0.298 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.130 1.087 4.363 0.104 0.417 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.998 0.143 0.918 4.109 0.139 0.124 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.129 0.830 3.293 0.109 0.353 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.999 0.081 -0.221 4.116 0.067 0.393 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.087 0.495 3.157 0.082 0.255 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.094 0.249 2.954 0.099 0.094 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.104 0.607 4.681 0.092 0.336 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.092 1.203 5.201 0.077 0.389 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.082 0.081 3.382 0.080 0.213 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.999 0.143 1.304 5.800 0.116 0.366 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.999 0.137 0.758 3.819 0.109 0.499 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.119 0.806 4.075 0.112 0.161 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.114 1.051 5.540 0.108 0.132 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.999 0.106 -0.507 6.991 0.092 0.280 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.097 0.493 3.418 0.090 0.304 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.133 0.637 3.534 0.129 0.168 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.133 1.347 6.785 0.123 0.167 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.999 0.086 0.309 2.999 0.093 0.096 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.170 -2.510 18.705 0.112 0.481 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.089 0.234 3.115 0.086 0.210 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.107 0.416 2.570 0.110 0.055 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.999 0.113 0.919 4.853 0.101 0.300 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.113 0.582 4.964 0.101 0.264 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.023 0.836 3.235 0.017 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.109 0.637 4.075 0.101 0.280 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.039 0.558 1.689 0.021 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.998 0.081 -2.510 2.570 0.067 0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.999 0.093 0.361 3.338 0.090 0.164 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.132 0.918 5.027 0.111 0.359 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.170 2.505 18.705 0.139 0.499 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.283 0.123 0.007 -0.043 3.052 -0.067 0.673 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 875112 AND 875182 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.673 SERIES 875131 AND 875132 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.331 0.335 0.388 0.251 0.290 0.384 0.306 0.307 SDEV 0.024 0.232 0.181 0.179 0.194 0.196 0.178 0.169 SERR 0.014 0.039 0.020 0.020 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.802 0.860 0.902 0.844 0.885 0.931 0.911 0.909 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.994 0.079 0.524 3.843 0.077 0.216 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.307 0.158 -0.083 86 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.12 1.00 1.12 2.24 23.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.15 0.00 0.80 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.215 0.241 0.071 0.117 0.007 0.036 -0.020 0.016 -0.094 -0.006 PACF 0.215 0.204 -0.015 0.064 -0.038 0.006 -0.025 0.012 -0.095 0.021 95% C.L. 0.117 0.123 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.090 0.171 0.212 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.094 0.273 -0.011 0.114 -0.017 0.098 0.069 0.042 -0.055 0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.094 2 0.069 0.267 3 0.085 0.271 -0.060 4 0.088 0.257 -0.064 0.051 5 0.089 0.256 -0.061 0.052 -0.013 6 0.090 0.253 -0.057 0.036 -0.018 0.062 7 0.085 0.254 -0.060 0.040 -0.038 0.055 0.077 8 0.086 0.255 -0.061 0.041 -0.039 0.060 0.079 -0.019 9 0.085 0.263 -0.055 0.037 -0.035 0.054 0.103 -0.011 -0.093 10 0.085 0.263 -0.056 0.037 -0.035 0.054 0.103 -0.012 -0.094 0.004 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1696.64 1696.03 1676.57 1677.52 1678.78 1680.73 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1681.60 1681.87 1683.76 1683.21 1685.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.069 0.267 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.069 0.271 0.037 0.075 0.015 0.021 0.005 0.006 0.002 0.0017 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.086 0.168 0.194 2 875012 2 0.034 0.127 0.116 3 875021 2 0.135 0.266 0.177 4 875022 2 0.178 0.301 0.203 5 875031 2 0.118 0.256 0.149 6 875032 2 0.212 0.335 0.205 7 875041 2 0.132 0.082 0.343 8 875042 2 0.161 0.306 0.169 9 875051 2 0.167 0.433 -0.084 10 875052 2 0.073 0.251 0.046 11 875071 2 0.070 0.087 0.089 12 875072 2 0.193 0.235 0.301 13 875081 2 0.166 0.411 -0.009 14 875082 2 0.062 0.191 0.105 15 875091 2 0.228 0.246 0.329 16 875092 2 0.346 0.327 0.349 17 875101 2 0.160 0.102 0.370 18 875102 2 0.094 0.098 0.258 19 875111 2 0.143 0.212 0.254 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.144 0.234 0.234 21 875131 2 0.086 0.128 0.243 22 875132 2 0.119 0.117 0.300 23 875142 2 0.015 0.091 0.061 24 875143 2 0.304 0.500 -0.041 25 875172 2 0.055 0.219 -0.045 26 875181 2 0.024 0.052 0.088 27 875182 2 0.141 0.241 0.209 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.135 0.223 0.171 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.078 0.116 0.128 MEDIAN 2 0.135 0.234 0.194 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.088 0.162 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.015 0.052 -0.084 LOWER HINGE 2 0.079 0.122 0.088 UPPER HINGE 2 0.167 0.284 0.256 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.346 0.500 0.370 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.134 2.308 9.827 0.130 0.013 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.083 0.387 3.106 0.093 -0.004 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.110 0.793 3.730 0.118 0.004 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.095 0.503 3.258 0.105 -0.004 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.103 0.662 5.109 0.112 -0.010 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.116 0.975 4.215 0.124 0.005 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.133 0.662 3.409 0.144 0.003 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.118 0.541 3.184 0.125 0.009 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.074 -0.435 3.650 0.079 0.000 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.084 0.456 3.008 0.094 -0.001 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.093 0.245 2.959 0.102 0.019 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.093 0.272 3.791 0.106 -0.002 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.084 0.553 3.761 0.094 0.015 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.080 0.133 3.158 0.088 0.009 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.126 1.133 5.759 0.131 -0.004 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.111 0.490 3.525 0.129 -0.026 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.109 0.555 3.593 0.115 -0.011 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.109 0.842 5.072 0.113 -0.028 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.098 -0.392 8.192 0.102 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.090 0.361 3.338 0.100 0.008 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.128 0.739 4.033 0.138 -0.008 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.125 1.573 8.381 0.127 0.017 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.086 0.267 2.946 0.098 -0.002 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.147 -1.098 16.008 0.152 -0.020 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.087 0.403 3.189 0.096 -0.004 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.107 0.446 2.558 0.111 0.009 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.105 0.888 4.827 0.115 0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.105 0.528 4.725 0.113 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.019 0.622 2.889 0.018 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.105 0.503 3.650 0.112 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.028 0.449 1.763 0.027 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.074 -1.098 2.558 0.079 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.089 0.316 3.186 0.099 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.117 0.766 4.950 0.126 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.147 2.308 16.008 0.152 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.306 0.117 0.006 -0.022 3.013 0.008 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 875111 AND 875181 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 875131 AND 875132 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.324 0.374 0.441 0.297 0.332 0.393 0.323 0.318 SDEV 0.043 0.201 0.142 0.156 0.146 0.154 0.153 0.161 SERR 0.025 0.034 0.016 0.018 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.796 0.879 0.920 0.872 0.903 0.934 0.917 0.914 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.996 0.072 0.446 3.308 0.083 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.234 0.118 -0.052 96 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.74 1.01 1.13 1.87 14.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.82 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 -0.020 -0.039 0.052 -0.041 0.017 -0.025 0.032 -0.096 0.048 PACF -0.070 -0.025 -0.042 0.046 -0.037 0.013 -0.021 0.024 -0.090 0.033 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.040 0.047 -0.038 0.015 -0.025 0.025 -0.094 0.036 PACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.040 0.047 -0.038 0.013 -0.022 0.020 -0.090 0.033 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.996 0.075 0.573 3.642 0.079 0.081 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.081 0.281 -0.004 0.119 -0.041 0.044 -0.055 0.029 -0.111 0.018 PACF 0.081 0.276 -0.046 0.049 -0.042 0.005 -0.034 0.016 -0.091 0.016 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.087 0.058 0.281 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES