RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River DENSITY_LATE PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 2 GAPS / 1924 1924 / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 875101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 875102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 7.257 0.610 -0.695 3.802 0.083 0.248 2 875012 1899 1990 92 6.392 0.728 -0.027 3.179 0.085 0.560 3 875021 1738 1990 253 5.194 0.752 0.247 3.044 0.110 0.520 4 875022 1720 1990 271 5.644 0.894 -0.108 2.430 0.107 0.646 5 875031 1775 1990 216 6.591 0.765 -0.454 2.714 0.110 0.314 6 875032 1801 1990 190 6.684 0.823 -0.011 3.006 0.093 0.544 7 875041 1852 1990 139 6.949 0.726 -0.484 3.549 0.098 0.371 8 875042 1860 1982 123 7.118 0.792 -0.445 3.218 0.093 0.432 9 875051 1883 1990 108 5.846 0.638 -0.201 3.426 0.103 0.247 10 875052 1890 1990 101 6.180 0.661 0.227 2.857 0.095 0.384 11 875071 1843 1897 55 6.478 0.681 -0.273 2.434 0.125 0.044 12 875072 1843 1990 148 6.330 0.710 0.006 2.772 0.086 0.526 13 875081 1885 1990 106 6.392 0.485 -0.413 3.026 0.073 0.256 14 875082 1876 1990 115 6.104 0.627 -0.250 2.546 0.091 0.375 15 875091 1753 1990 238 6.341 0.684 0.387 2.913 0.080 0.571 16 875092 1766 1951 186 6.361 0.493 0.111 2.614 0.074 0.310 17 875101 1762 1935 174 6.161 0.876 0.144 2.717 0.096 0.652 18 875102 1760 1935 176 6.004 0.814 -0.003 2.464 0.091 0.642 19 875111 1797 1990 194 5.761 0.709 -0.077 2.857 0.094 0.522 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 5.931 0.771 0.026 2.457 0.099 0.545 21 875131 1777 1990 214 5.047 0.701 0.290 2.914 0.106 0.511 22 875132 1808 1990 183 5.072 0.566 -0.408 2.991 0.104 0.330 23 875142 1786 1860 75 6.751 0.696 -0.202 2.814 0.094 0.327 24 875143 1798 2010 213 6.336 1.112 -2.632 16.034 0.116 0.534 25 875172 1918 1990 73 6.659 0.638 -0.739 3.075 0.100 0.149 26 875181 1922 1990 69 6.646 0.527 -0.420 4.947 0.068 0.477 27 875182 1922 1990 69 6.004 0.574 -0.568 2.838 0.087 0.328 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 6.231 0.706 -0.258 3.468 0.095 0.421 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.563 0.134 0.563 2.564 0.013 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 6.336 0.701 -0.201 2.913 0.094 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.651 0.135 0.449 0.412 0.017 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 54 5.047 0.485 -2.632 2.430 0.068 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 5.967 0.632 -0.433 2.715 0.086 0.321 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 6.619 0.768 0.016 3.127 0.104 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 7.257 1.112 0.387 16.034 0.125 0.652 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.368 0.188 0.010 -0.276 2.939 -0.178 0.895 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 875012 AND 875092 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.895 SERIES 875071 AND 875082 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.411 0.462 0.268 0.430 0.525 0.494 0.431 0.403 SDEV 0.126 0.183 0.276 0.214 0.143 0.139 0.183 0.237 SERR 0.073 0.031 0.031 0.024 0.014 0.012 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.851 0.913 0.841 0.924 0.954 0.955 0.946 0.939 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 6.141 0.593 -0.445 4.350 0.076 0.504 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.224 -0.132 1.547 51 240 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.42 1.01 1.09 1.51 20.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.503 0.482 0.375 0.351 0.332 0.322 0.255 0.222 0.140 0.134 PACF 0.503 0.307 0.078 0.082 0.086 0.075 -0.025 -0.018 -0.079 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.117 0.144 0.165 0.176 0.185 0.193 0.201 0.205 0.208 0.209 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.341 0.319 0.287 0.085 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 1 0.86460173 0.23418549 0.00000000 7.22101641 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00803350 5.98473787 3 875021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151347 5.00205803 4 875022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00696622 6.59102249 5 875031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00205331 6.36860466 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239360 6.96020555 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00693127 6.46337175 8 875042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00716062 6.67425299 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00309802 5.70409489 10 875052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217694 6.29062796 11 875071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003752 6.47923231 12 875072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00869459 6.97747660 13 875081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067501 6.42856598 14 875082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00848142 6.59566116 15 875091 1 1.94601059 0.00303439 0.00000000 4.95723295 16 875092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046711 6.31734657 17 875101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01264939 7.26743460 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01035238 6.92139482 19 875111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140706 5.89863157 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00588141 6.58355999 21 875131 1 1.12611926 0.02474220 0.00000000 4.83800888 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00148387 4.93550587 23 875142 1 1.02035928 0.17852423 0.00000000 6.68159342 24 875143 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00477886 5.82499981 25 875172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240621 6.57028532 26 875181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354403 6.76998281 27 875182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00182499 5.94003820 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.083 -0.601 3.899 0.082 0.224 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.110 -0.334 3.890 0.089 0.470 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.144 0.352 3.211 0.110 0.512 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.124 -0.168 2.697 0.107 0.419 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.115 -0.421 2.697 0.110 0.301 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.118 0.059 3.117 0.089 0.534 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.097 -0.367 3.400 0.097 0.264 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.106 -0.228 3.425 0.092 0.378 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.109 -0.144 3.380 0.101 0.305 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.106 0.190 2.735 0.094 0.371 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.105 -0.272 2.434 0.123 0.043 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.096 0.156 2.850 0.085 0.339 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.076 -0.412 2.987 0.073 0.251 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.091 -0.468 2.734 0.090 0.221 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.098 0.497 3.041 0.079 0.485 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.077 0.128 2.608 0.073 0.306 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.097 -0.080 3.501 0.094 0.281 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.104 0.098 2.852 0.091 0.385 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.122 -0.208 2.931 0.094 0.508 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.112 -0.038 2.694 0.098 0.399 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.127 0.070 2.956 0.106 0.420 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.111 -0.420 3.002 0.103 0.310 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.100 -0.146 2.918 0.093 0.288 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.168 -3.019 19.061 0.116 0.496 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.095 -0.749 3.112 0.098 0.140 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.079 -0.289 4.841 0.067 0.460 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.095 -0.566 2.929 0.085 0.319 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.106 -0.273 3.700 0.094 0.349 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.020 0.624 3.110 0.013 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.105 -0.208 2.987 0.094 0.339 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.018 0.481 0.598 0.015 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.076 -3.019 2.434 0.067 0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.096 -0.416 2.792 0.087 0.285 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.113 0.065 3.390 0.102 0.440 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.168 0.497 19.061 0.123 0.534 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.080 -0.644 4.117 0.082 0.178 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.999 0.097 -0.551 3.836 0.089 0.314 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.999 0.118 -0.201 3.336 0.110 0.295 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.999 0.110 -0.345 3.064 0.107 0.277 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.109 -0.360 2.653 0.110 0.231 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.108 0.132 3.474 0.089 0.437 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.091 -0.425 3.337 0.097 0.160 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.094 -0.255 3.259 0.092 0.190 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.101 -0.361 3.809 0.101 0.182 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.091 -0.237 2.735 0.095 0.168 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.101 -0.180 2.576 0.123 -0.016 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.091 0.038 3.028 0.085 0.271 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.070 -0.248 3.049 0.073 0.124 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.087 -0.558 2.970 0.090 0.155 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.999 0.091 0.403 2.928 0.079 0.403 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.075 0.165 2.670 0.073 0.270 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.091 -0.086 3.288 0.094 0.163 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.999 0.095 0.075 2.979 0.091 0.285 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.108 -0.300 3.249 0.094 0.393 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.098 0.033 2.702 0.098 0.232 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.999 0.120 0.104 3.081 0.106 0.346 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.107 -0.448 3.208 0.103 0.258 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.096 -0.044 2.978 0.093 0.227 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.164 -3.202 20.793 0.116 0.459 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.085 -0.542 3.237 0.099 -0.080 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.999 0.068 -0.374 5.100 0.066 0.275 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.999 0.085 -0.357 3.296 0.085 0.115 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.097 -0.325 3.880 0.094 0.234 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.019 0.631 3.420 0.013 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.095 -0.255 3.208 0.094 0.232 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.018 0.395 0.363 0.015 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.999 0.068 -3.202 2.576 0.066 -0.080 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.999 0.089 -0.400 2.974 0.087 0.166 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.107 -0.005 3.337 0.102 0.290 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.164 0.403 20.793 0.123 0.459 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.419 0.145 0.008 -0.409 3.547 -0.076 0.894 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.076 SERIES 875143 AND 875182 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.894 SERIES 875071 AND 875082 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.398 0.472 0.321 0.431 0.539 0.501 0.464 0.394 SDEV 0.012 0.179 0.217 0.192 0.138 0.134 0.169 0.197 SERR 0.007 0.030 0.025 0.022 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.843 0.916 0.873 0.924 0.957 0.956 0.953 0.936 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.997 0.074 -0.584 3.423 0.076 0.172 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.045 0.022 0.044 67 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.62 1.00 1.10 1.71 54.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.171 0.187 0.050 0.080 0.054 0.057 -0.037 -0.025 -0.107 -0.041 PACF 0.171 0.162 -0.005 0.046 0.031 0.026 -0.067 -0.030 -0.092 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.117 0.121 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.055 0.144 0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.110 0.156 0.026 0.108 0.063 0.011 -0.063 -0.010 -0.091 -0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.110 2 0.094 0.145 3 0.094 0.146 -0.004 4 0.095 0.133 -0.013 0.086 5 0.091 0.134 -0.018 0.082 0.044 6 0.092 0.136 -0.019 0.086 0.047 -0.028 7 0.090 0.140 -0.012 0.084 0.057 -0.021 -0.080 8 0.090 0.140 -0.012 0.085 0.057 -0.020 -0.080 -0.004 9 0.089 0.133 -0.013 0.090 0.064 -0.021 -0.068 0.003 -0.083 10 0.090 0.133 -0.013 0.090 0.064 -0.021 -0.068 0.002 -0.084 0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1695.14 1693.62 1689.41 1691.40 1691.22 1692.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1694.43 1694.57 1696.56 1696.55 1698.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.094 0.145 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.29 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.094 0.154 0.028 0.025 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.065 0.198 -0.106 2 875012 2 0.114 0.281 0.116 3 875021 2 0.169 0.210 0.291 4 875022 2 0.130 0.214 0.226 5 875031 2 0.105 0.179 0.227 6 875032 2 0.249 0.325 0.262 7 875041 2 0.064 0.172 -0.076 8 875042 2 0.041 0.184 0.048 9 875051 2 0.035 0.177 0.036 10 875052 2 0.030 0.164 0.027 11 875071 2 0.082 -0.017 -0.048 12 875072 2 0.077 0.258 0.054 13 875081 2 0.039 0.107 0.143 14 875082 2 0.031 0.141 0.087 15 875091 2 0.229 0.300 0.257 16 875092 2 0.131 0.254 0.067 17 875101 2 0.143 0.109 0.335 18 875102 2 0.191 0.193 0.330 19 875111 2 0.233 0.276 0.301 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.083 0.193 0.174 21 875131 2 0.203 0.263 0.242 22 875132 2 0.114 0.204 0.217 23 875142 2 0.082 0.196 0.166 24 875143 2 0.258 0.401 0.127 25 875172 2 0.008 -0.080 0.033 26 875181 2 0.076 0.279 -0.016 27 875182 2 0.112 0.087 0.244 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.115 0.195 0.139 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.073 0.099 0.127 MEDIAN 2 0.105 0.196 0.143 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.091 0.092 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.080 -0.106 LOWER HINGE 2 0.065 0.168 0.042 UPPER HINGE 2 0.156 0.260 0.243 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.258 0.401 0.335 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.079 -0.674 3.967 0.090 -0.016 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.091 -0.391 3.692 0.101 0.000 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.108 -0.428 3.366 0.120 -0.023 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.103 -0.312 3.046 0.117 -0.019 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.103 -0.302 2.854 0.118 -0.013 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.094 0.060 3.482 0.102 0.008 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.090 -0.455 3.183 0.104 -0.014 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.092 -0.287 3.284 0.100 0.005 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.099 -0.511 4.083 0.109 0.003 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.090 -0.360 2.849 0.103 0.000 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.101 -0.232 2.574 0.123 -0.013 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.087 0.148 3.108 0.095 0.003 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.068 -0.216 3.539 0.075 0.006 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.086 -0.604 3.168 0.096 0.000 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.080 0.269 3.415 0.092 -0.029 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.072 0.220 2.619 0.084 -0.017 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.084 -0.177 3.234 0.097 -0.026 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.086 -0.095 2.877 0.099 -0.032 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.095 -0.061 2.832 0.104 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.094 0.122 2.778 0.107 0.000 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.109 -0.172 3.833 0.123 -0.045 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.101 -0.503 3.394 0.114 -0.012 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.092 -0.028 2.732 0.101 0.006 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.143 -1.540 17.802 0.145 0.022 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.085 -0.559 3.275 0.095 -0.002 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.065 -0.187 4.814 0.075 0.000 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.082 -0.180 3.970 0.083 0.050 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.092 -0.276 3.843 0.103 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.015 0.357 2.837 0.016 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.091 -0.232 3.275 0.101 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.015 0.364 0.750 0.017 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.065 -1.540 2.574 0.075 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.085 -0.442 2.865 0.095 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.100 -0.078 3.615 0.111 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.143 0.269 17.802 0.145 0.050 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.448 0.138 0.008 -0.549 3.679 -0.110 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.110 SERIES 875143 AND 875182 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 875071 AND 875082 22 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.393 0.516 0.409 0.507 0.555 0.528 0.503 0.408 SDEV 0.051 0.130 0.143 0.159 0.154 0.129 0.161 0.185 SERR 0.029 0.022 0.016 0.018 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.841 0.928 0.909 0.943 0.959 0.961 0.959 0.940 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.999 0.071 -0.587 3.630 0.083 -0.090 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.025 0.011 0.047 61 230 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.60 40.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.090 -0.029 -0.031 0.030 0.009 0.047 -0.047 -0.008 -0.088 0.023 PACF -0.090 -0.037 -0.037 0.023 0.012 0.050 -0.035 -0.013 -0.092 0.000 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.090 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.034 0.029 0.014 0.045 -0.047 -0.019 -0.094 0.005 PACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.034 0.029 0.014 0.044 -0.045 -0.019 -0.093 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.999 0.072 -0.634 3.577 0.076 0.103 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.103 0.155 0.000 0.057 0.014 0.043 -0.058 -0.029 -0.118 -0.019 PACF 0.103 0.146 -0.029 0.038 0.010 0.028 -0.068 -0.030 -0.097 0.003 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.124 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.032 0.088 0.146 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES