RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River WIDTH_RING PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.956 0.501 0.479 2.273 0.251 0.790 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.046 0.483 0.631 2.654 0.185 0.854 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.429 0.177 1.055 4.810 0.284 0.622 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.528 0.282 1.462 6.501 0.257 0.762 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.577 0.256 1.906 8.789 0.246 0.598 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.522 0.261 0.888 4.945 0.241 0.669 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.505 0.206 0.706 3.353 0.252 0.659 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.491 0.192 1.359 6.025 0.238 0.652 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.613 0.240 1.177 4.925 0.230 0.711 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.676 0.345 0.965 3.269 0.258 0.770 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.763 0.234 0.612 3.173 0.290 0.333 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.546 0.246 0.454 2.409 0.249 0.748 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.903 0.341 1.161 3.884 0.193 0.772 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.802 0.361 1.280 4.047 0.182 0.863 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.437 0.326 1.887 7.157 0.285 0.892 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.434 0.269 1.181 4.368 0.317 0.748 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.354 0.179 0.622 3.174 0.362 0.700 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.426 0.246 0.742 2.834 0.351 0.775 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.326 0.148 1.838 9.028 0.240 0.659 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.307 0.222 1.906 6.736 0.289 0.823 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.301 0.152 0.976 3.508 0.315 0.724 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.445 0.205 0.673 2.746 0.323 0.650 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.663 0.268 0.236 2.319 0.263 0.687 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.457 0.217 0.382 2.726 0.282 0.740 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.519 0.251 1.634 5.573 0.213 0.809 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.646 0.215 0.772 3.038 0.257 0.526 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.826 0.249 0.113 2.797 0.217 0.607 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.574 0.262 1.004 4.336 0.262 0.709 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.200 0.086 0.523 1.938 0.046 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.522 0.246 0.965 3.508 0.257 0.724 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.234 0.065 0.693 2.443 0.048 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.301 0.148 0.113 2.273 0.182 0.333 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.435 0.211 0.627 2.816 0.239 0.656 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.670 0.275 1.320 5.259 0.287 0.773 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.046 0.501 1.906 9.028 0.362 0.892 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.419 0.333 0.019 -0.768 2.550 -0.465 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.465 SERIES 875091 AND 875182 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 875101 AND 875102 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.384 0.470 0.513 0.531 0.459 0.435 0.568 0.396 SDEV 0.303 0.256 0.180 0.224 0.342 0.248 0.252 0.267 SERR 0.175 0.043 0.020 0.025 0.033 0.021 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.836 0.915 0.939 0.948 0.941 0.944 0.968 0.937 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.488 0.156 0.595 3.058 0.209 0.619 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.439 0.367 0.019 83 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.81 1.00 1.10 1.91 35.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.617 0.606 0.495 0.484 0.411 0.349 0.278 0.240 0.256 0.224 PACF 0.617 0.363 0.061 0.106 0.010 -0.045 -0.058 -0.014 0.104 0.028 95% C.L. 0.117 0.156 0.185 0.203 0.218 0.228 0.236 0.240 0.243 0.247 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.466 0.392 0.365 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01397647 1.60610127 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01442517 1.75880146 3 875021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030163 0.39086297 4 875022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130527 0.70537680 5 875031 1 0.79681313 0.05013253 0.00000000 0.50491321 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00246996 0.74582666 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00222503 0.66050047 8 875042 1 0.51907831 0.00786401 0.00000000 0.15987188 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00449290 0.86700314 10 875052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00714945 1.04085946 11 875071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00292136 0.68092930 12 875072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00376052 0.82644236 13 875081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00228440 1.02485716 14 875082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267624 0.95765674 15 875091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00236623 0.72007555 16 875092 1 0.71161675 0.01344394 0.00000000 0.17408018 17 875101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00246854 0.57013553 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00333811 0.72116166 19 875111 1 0.40345836 0.01564557 0.00000000 0.20007662 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 1 0.80068535 0.02382550 0.00000000 0.15785266 21 875131 1 0.45145893 0.01493281 0.00000000 0.16688158 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00231143 0.65789765 23 875142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00567653 0.87877476 24 875143 1 0.47327486 0.05244747 0.00000000 0.41620222 25 875172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00785172 0.80941778 26 875181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00409134 0.50260019 27 875182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00745342 0.56536233 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.988 0.305 0.172 2.891 0.250 0.518 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.996 0.276 0.133 2.163 0.187 0.651 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.410 1.193 5.992 0.283 0.609 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.993 0.457 1.032 4.836 0.256 0.699 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.357 1.313 6.312 0.244 0.529 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.989 0.429 2.000 11.582 0.234 0.637 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.995 0.357 0.868 4.220 0.251 0.553 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.331 0.977 4.856 0.236 0.539 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.997 0.286 0.767 4.638 0.224 0.538 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.991 0.351 0.589 2.795 0.256 0.601 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.301 0.618 3.097 0.284 0.307 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.995 0.354 1.208 4.593 0.248 0.611 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.999 0.357 1.000 3.810 0.191 0.742 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.997 0.420 1.273 4.357 0.180 0.842 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.987 0.556 1.339 5.141 0.284 0.814 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.004 0.476 0.813 3.385 0.316 0.593 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.989 0.348 0.224 2.931 0.360 0.322 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.995 0.394 0.453 2.997 0.349 0.471 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.296 0.566 3.198 0.238 0.418 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.997 0.344 0.429 3.103 0.288 0.487 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.336 0.496 3.203 0.314 0.368 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.999 0.365 0.634 3.431 0.321 0.429 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.995 0.375 0.756 3.300 0.260 0.607 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.999 0.454 0.413 2.966 0.280 0.716 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.006 0.304 0.296 2.979 0.209 0.605 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.001 0.312 1.008 4.489 0.253 0.436 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.998 0.249 0.767 4.717 0.213 0.417 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.997 0.363 0.790 4.147 0.260 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.005 0.069 0.430 1.809 0.046 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.997 0.354 0.767 3.431 0.253 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.005 0.093 0.545 1.631 0.049 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.987 0.249 0.133 2.163 0.180 0.307 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.995 0.309 0.475 3.047 0.235 0.453 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.402 1.020 4.677 0.284 0.624 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.006 0.556 2.000 11.582 0.360 0.842 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.995 0.278 0.164 3.400 0.250 0.441 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.996 0.250 -0.020 2.103 0.186 0.586 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.994 0.381 1.631 9.636 0.283 0.555 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.994 0.396 1.199 5.990 0.257 0.617 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.995 0.303 1.473 7.008 0.244 0.393 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.995 0.354 1.445 8.726 0.234 0.508 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.992 0.267 0.468 3.952 0.250 0.302 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.996 0.310 1.005 4.650 0.236 0.493 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.995 0.239 0.410 4.052 0.223 0.396 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.992 0.285 0.133 2.410 0.254 0.427 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.997 0.286 0.543 2.844 0.285 0.233 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.996 0.320 0.913 3.921 0.248 0.524 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.993 0.228 0.244 3.237 0.191 0.461 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.993 0.246 0.406 3.699 0.180 0.597 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.969 0.446 0.957 3.600 0.284 0.724 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.978 0.396 0.663 3.119 0.315 0.477 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.998 0.338 0.240 2.892 0.360 0.221 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.991 0.349 0.202 2.546 0.349 0.315 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.997 0.267 0.529 3.429 0.238 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.997 0.298 0.269 2.747 0.288 0.267 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.998 0.320 0.282 2.858 0.314 0.320 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.996 0.348 0.489 3.194 0.321 0.386 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.990 0.302 0.411 2.739 0.257 0.453 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.987 0.388 0.609 3.892 0.280 0.595 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.998 0.285 0.183 2.951 0.208 0.570 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.993 0.267 0.834 3.873 0.252 0.266 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.999 0.229 0.659 4.371 0.212 0.342 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.993 0.310 0.605 3.994 0.259 0.436 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.006 0.057 0.442 1.830 0.046 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.995 0.302 0.489 3.429 0.252 0.441 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.004 0.081 0.617 1.127 0.049 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.969 0.228 -0.020 2.103 0.180 0.221 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.993 0.267 0.257 2.875 0.235 0.318 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.996 0.348 0.874 4.002 0.284 0.539 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.999 0.446 1.631 9.636 0.360 0.724 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.403 0.161 0.009 -0.153 2.751 -0.084 0.805 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.084 SERIES 875072 AND 875181 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.805 SERIES 875142 AND 875143 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.384 0.504 0.478 0.512 0.462 0.527 0.501 0.405 SDEV 0.314 0.179 0.197 0.186 0.233 0.181 0.193 0.217 SERR 0.181 0.030 0.022 0.021 0.023 0.016 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.836 0.925 0.930 0.944 0.942 0.961 0.959 0.939 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.969 0.248 0.354 2.881 0.218 0.420 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.130 0.075 0.139 74 217 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.75 1.01 1.08 1.83 237.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.419 0.444 0.297 0.267 0.176 0.109 0.009 -0.025 -0.031 -0.059 PACF 0.419 0.326 0.047 0.039 -0.023 -0.057 -0.105 -0.053 0.019 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.117 0.136 0.155 0.163 0.168 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.271 0.281 0.333 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.343 0.461 0.281 0.228 0.119 0.072 -0.062 -0.044 -0.069 -0.124 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.343 2 0.209 0.390 3 0.183 0.375 0.068 4 0.185 0.385 0.072 -0.026 5 0.183 0.391 0.101 -0.012 -0.075 6 0.179 0.390 0.106 0.007 -0.066 -0.049 7 0.172 0.381 0.107 0.021 -0.013 -0.024 -0.136 8 0.169 0.380 0.107 0.022 -0.010 -0.015 -0.132 -0.024 9 0.170 0.385 0.107 0.022 -0.011 -0.019 -0.146 -0.030 0.038 10 0.172 0.384 0.099 0.021 -0.012 -0.018 -0.140 -0.008 0.048 -0.059 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2382.22 2347.85 2301.95 2302.61 2304.41 2304.78 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2306.09 2302.66 2304.49 2306.07 2307.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.209 0.390 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 25.14 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.59 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.209 0.433 0.172 0.205 0.110 0.103 0.064 0.054 0.036 0.0284 0.020 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.246 0.383 0.156 2 875012 2 0.381 0.474 0.201 3 875021 2 0.332 0.467 0.162 4 875022 2 0.411 0.495 0.203 5 875031 2 0.233 0.276 0.302 6 875032 2 0.329 0.366 0.288 7 875041 2 0.153 0.253 0.168 8 875042 2 0.282 0.413 0.164 9 875051 2 0.194 0.319 0.201 10 875052 2 0.238 0.323 0.249 11 875071 2 0.110 0.231 0.018 12 875072 2 0.347 0.360 0.314 13 875081 2 0.282 0.328 0.292 14 875082 2 0.385 0.516 0.148 15 875091 2 0.591 0.454 0.374 16 875092 2 0.340 0.303 0.368 17 875101 2 0.151 0.150 0.324 18 875102 2 0.239 0.194 0.386 19 875111 2 0.214 0.215 0.343 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.141 0.196 0.272 21 875131 2 0.175 0.230 0.281 22 875132 2 0.300 0.228 0.411 23 875142 2 0.257 0.346 0.244 24 875143 2 0.386 0.465 0.219 25 875172 2 0.333 0.579 -0.006 26 875181 2 0.093 0.233 0.141 27 875182 2 0.127 0.316 0.083 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.269 0.337 0.234 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.114 0.107 MEDIAN 2 0.257 0.323 0.244 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.152 0.202 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.093 0.150 -0.006 LOWER HINGE 2 0.185 0.232 0.163 UPPER HINGE 2 0.336 0.433 0.308 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.591 0.579 0.411 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.243 -0.177 2.845 0.282 0.014 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.197 0.134 3.133 0.223 0.006 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.312 1.345 7.417 0.341 0.010 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.303 0.868 5.109 0.329 -0.004 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.265 0.979 5.951 0.274 0.004 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.290 1.505 8.370 0.272 -0.024 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.251 0.349 3.906 0.269 0.029 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.266 0.659 4.135 0.275 0.026 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.215 0.435 4.126 0.249 0.008 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.249 0.399 3.211 0.290 -0.010 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.278 0.373 2.902 0.330 0.006 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.258 1.059 4.717 0.283 -0.012 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.193 0.297 3.670 0.218 0.002 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.193 0.155 3.821 0.226 0.011 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.285 0.261 3.225 0.328 -0.005 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.322 0.552 3.182 0.353 -0.037 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.311 0.088 2.708 0.368 -0.018 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.305 0.138 2.863 0.363 -0.031 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.236 0.381 3.397 0.256 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.276 0.372 3.205 0.304 0.004 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.291 0.239 3.009 0.341 -0.013 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.293 0.463 3.014 0.335 -0.038 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.260 0.475 2.938 0.296 0.003 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.303 0.631 4.195 0.334 0.001 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.232 0.619 3.542 0.260 -0.006 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.254 0.588 3.577 0.278 0.000 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.214 0.351 3.691 0.243 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.263 0.502 3.921 0.293 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.038 0.380 1.374 0.044 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.265 0.399 3.542 0.283 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.052 0.346 1.057 0.067 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.193 -0.177 2.708 0.218 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.239 0.279 3.074 0.264 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.292 0.625 4.130 0.332 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.322 1.505 8.370 0.368 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.433 0.151 0.008 -0.357 2.907 0.035 0.853 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.035 SERIES 875071 AND 875102 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.853 SERIES 875142 AND 875143 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.503 0.543 0.556 0.571 0.512 0.547 0.509 0.450 SDEV 0.102 0.099 0.118 0.131 0.146 0.138 0.172 0.223 SERR 0.059 0.016 0.013 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.892 0.936 0.948 0.956 0.952 0.963 0.960 0.949 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.987 0.205 0.373 3.471 0.239 -0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.223 0.101 0.059 89 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.75 1.00 1.08 1.83 34.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.084 -0.003 0.026 0.044 0.036 0.011 -0.108 -0.070 -0.021 -0.081 PACF -0.084 -0.010 0.025 0.048 0.045 0.018 -0.110 -0.095 -0.043 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 -0.084 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.003 0.030 0.050 0.041 0.004 -0.115 -0.083 -0.035 -0.081 PACF 0.000 0.003 0.030 0.050 0.041 0.003 -0.119 -0.090 -0.041 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.000 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.988 0.239 0.387 2.964 0.214 0.360 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.359 0.475 0.255 0.250 0.127 0.071 -0.045 -0.069 -0.057 -0.094 PACF 0.359 0.397 0.013 0.007 -0.045 -0.072 -0.122 -0.060 0.054 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.117 0.131 0.153 0.159 0.164 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.167 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.269 0.216 0.400 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES