RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS034N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS034N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 877 1 Shchuchye-River DENSITY_MINIMUM PCOB - 877 2 Russia Black Spuce 90 6649-6917 1710 1990 - 877 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 877022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 1 GAPS / 1820 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 877031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 877032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 877041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 877051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 3 GAPS / 1816 1817 / 1863 1863 / 1887 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 877052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1866 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 877082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1859 1860 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 877092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1962 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 877101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1900 1900 / 1936 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 877102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 877111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1801 1804 / 1936 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 877112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1804 1804 / 1837 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 877122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1863 1863 / 1867 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 877021 1776 1990 215 0.310 0.032 1.133 7.255 0.071 0.515 2 877022 1788 1990 203 0.351 0.038 0.485 3.299 0.083 0.467 3 877031 1742 1990 249 0.364 0.060 0.123 2.358 0.064 0.855 4 877032 1833 1990 158 0.323 0.045 0.805 3.123 0.071 0.728 5 877041 1870 1990 121 0.283 0.029 0.759 3.453 0.079 0.433 6 877042 1881 1990 110 0.301 0.024 0.304 2.457 0.068 0.412 7 877051 1753 1990 238 0.354 0.054 0.522 2.817 0.087 0.716 8 877052 1725 1987 263 0.311 0.076 1.802 7.915 0.107 0.796 9 877061 1809 1990 182 0.320 0.047 0.140 3.630 0.080 0.656 10 877062 1837 1990 154 0.363 0.064 1.381 4.377 0.088 0.751 11 877071 1826 1990 165 0.360 0.045 0.039 2.552 0.069 0.726 12 877072 1831 1990 160 0.322 0.030 0.325 2.935 0.076 0.453 13 877081 1787 1990 204 0.315 0.029 0.497 3.517 0.083 0.294 14 877082 1770 1990 221 0.335 0.045 0.665 4.056 0.102 0.464 15 877091 1749 1963 215 0.300 0.035 0.476 3.187 0.084 0.568 16 877092 1766 1990 225 0.297 0.039 0.614 3.502 0.086 0.647 17 877101 1780 1990 211 0.299 0.033 0.568 3.687 0.077 0.533 18 877102 1768 1990 223 0.292 0.035 0.940 4.176 0.068 0.690 19 877111 1784 1970 187 0.365 0.035 0.187 2.623 0.085 0.419 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 877112 1710 1977 268 0.381 0.045 0.515 3.291 0.095 0.429 21 877121 1908 1990 83 0.318 0.027 0.410 3.032 0.083 0.227 22 877122 1747 1921 175 0.262 0.035 0.876 3.271 0.103 0.358 23 877211 1881 1990 110 0.269 0.031 1.108 4.226 0.089 0.389 24 877212 1895 1990 96 0.271 0.024 0.358 3.000 0.077 0.333 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1710 TO 1990 281 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.319 0.040 0.626 3.656 0.082 0.536 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.034 0.013 0.421 1.332 0.011 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 185 0.316 0.035 0.518 3.295 0.083 0.491 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 65 0.054 0.015 0.499 0.904 0.013 0.288 MINIMUM VALUE 83 0.262 0.024 0.039 2.358 0.064 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 155 0.298 0.031 0.341 2.968 0.074 0.415 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 220 0.352 0.045 0.841 3.871 0.087 0.703 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.381 0.076 1.802 7.915 0.107 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.217 0.258 0.016 -0.405 2.609 -0.506 0.707 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.506 SERIES 877031 AND 877052 246 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.707 SERIES 877031 AND 877032 158 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 91. 105. 171. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.118 0.311 0.330 0.209 0.172 0.266 0.253 0.201 SDEV 0.259 0.206 0.166 0.252 0.305 0.273 0.194 0.197 SERR 0.150 0.034 0.017 0.025 0.023 0.020 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.532 0.853 0.886 0.827 0.807 0.890 0.888 0.852 NSS 8.5 12.9 15.8 18.1 20.1 22.3 23.3 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1710 1990 281 0.329 0.034 2.189 10.098 0.065 0.645 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.231 -0.138 0.096 57 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.61 1.00 1.10 1.70 26.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 195. 66. 83. 156. 222. 268. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.643 0.662 0.559 0.521 0.421 0.448 0.354 0.329 0.305 0.311 PACF 0.643 0.424 0.087 0.042 -0.076 0.121 -0.031 -0.037 0.038 0.080 95% C.L. 0.119 0.161 0.196 0.218 0.235 0.245 0.257 0.263 0.269 0.274 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.563 0.284 0.354 0.083 0.137 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 877021 1 0.04955567 0.02092774 0.00000000 0.29931581 2 877022 1 0.02734006 0.02945162 0.00000000 0.34735179 3 877031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061439 0.44075850 4 877032 1 0.12055732 0.01736238 0.00000000 0.28320473 5 877041 1 0.08566507 0.00790706 0.00000000 0.22784567 6 877042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023100 0.28845203 7 877051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035472 0.39822394 8 877052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056009 0.23699908 9 877061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057163 0.26808086 10 877062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005106 0.35889992 11 877071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052846 0.40404433 12 877072 1 0.05304098 0.02600262 0.00000000 0.30911285 13 877081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014372 0.32929006 14 877082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016842 0.35519820 15 877091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040436 0.34367052 16 877092 1 0.10980628 0.02277559 0.00000000 0.27628747 17 877101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018267 0.31727806 18 877102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009128 0.30205312 19 877111 1 0.07771979 0.01128901 0.00000000 0.33321285 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 877112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014203 0.40184355 21 877121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023551 0.30842200 22 877122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024209 0.24170366 23 877211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002543 0.26804337 24 877212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023928 0.25985307 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 877021 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.097 1.915 12.020 0.071 0.436 2 877022 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.106 0.533 3.452 0.083 0.429 3 877031 1742 1990 249 0.999 0.108 0.146 3.138 0.065 0.662 4 877032 1833 1990 158 1.000 0.104 0.396 2.863 0.071 0.564 5 877041 1870 1990 121 1.000 0.086 0.603 3.711 0.079 0.202 6 877042 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.077 0.314 2.426 0.068 0.346 7 877051 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.139 0.682 2.713 0.087 0.667 8 877052 1725 1987 263 1.001 0.196 2.048 9.944 0.108 0.699 9 877061 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.114 0.793 5.142 0.080 0.472 10 877062 1837 1990 154 1.000 0.176 1.430 4.492 0.087 0.747 11 877071 1826 1990 165 1.000 0.103 0.006 2.603 0.069 0.593 12 877072 1831 1990 160 1.000 0.083 0.321 2.913 0.076 0.319 13 877081 1787 1990 204 1.000 0.089 0.635 3.701 0.083 0.219 14 877082 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.134 0.707 4.309 0.101 0.484 15 877091 1749 1963 215 1.000 0.080 0.565 3.834 0.084 0.103 16 877092 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.098 0.706 4.254 0.086 0.327 17 877101 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.102 0.618 4.634 0.077 0.471 18 877102 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.117 0.946 4.523 0.068 0.675 19 877111 1784 1970 187 1.000 0.082 0.488 3.440 0.083 0.225 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 877112 1710 1977 268 1.000 0.114 0.523 3.123 0.095 0.419 21 877121 1908 1990 83 1.000 0.082 0.179 2.671 0.082 0.189 22 877122 1747 1921 175 1.000 0.127 0.898 3.554 0.102 0.308 23 877211 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.116 1.142 4.333 0.088 0.384 24 877212 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.086 0.694 3.494 0.076 0.287 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 1.000 0.109 0.720 4.220 0.082 0.426 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.029 0.498 2.227 0.011 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 195 1.000 0.103 0.627 3.627 0.083 0.424 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 66 0.000 0.031 0.404 1.394 0.013 0.282 MINIMUM VALUE 83 0.999 0.077 0.006 2.426 0.065 0.103 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.086 0.442 3.018 0.074 0.297 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 222 1.000 0.117 0.846 4.412 0.087 0.579 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.001 0.196 2.048 12.020 0.108 0.747 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 877021 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 877022 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 877031 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 877032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 877041 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 877042 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 877051 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 877052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 877061 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 877062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 877071 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 877072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 877081 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 877082 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 877091 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 877092 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 877101 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 877102 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 877111 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 877112 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 877121 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 877122 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 877211 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 877212 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 877021 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.081 1.465 9.590 0.071 0.255 2 877022 1788 1990 203 0.999 0.097 0.709 4.060 0.083 0.320 3 877031 1742 1990 249 0.999 0.086 0.642 3.797 0.065 0.474 4 877032 1833 1990 158 0.999 0.092 0.510 3.235 0.071 0.455 5 877041 1870 1990 121 1.000 0.085 0.559 3.602 0.079 0.186 6 877042 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.064 0.152 2.505 0.068 0.082 7 877051 1753 1990 238 0.999 0.114 0.723 3.142 0.087 0.517 8 877052 1725 1987 263 0.998 0.166 2.264 12.229 0.108 0.609 9 877061 1809 1990 182 0.999 0.102 0.890 4.705 0.080 0.359 10 877062 1837 1990 154 0.999 0.138 0.895 3.775 0.087 0.598 11 877071 1826 1990 165 1.000 0.091 0.291 3.287 0.069 0.476 12 877072 1831 1990 160 1.000 0.076 0.271 3.323 0.076 0.194 13 877081 1787 1990 204 1.000 0.080 0.385 3.249 0.083 0.038 14 877082 1770 1990 221 0.999 0.105 0.275 4.682 0.101 0.203 15 877091 1749 1963 215 1.000 0.079 0.571 3.829 0.084 0.093 16 877092 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.081 0.678 3.360 0.086 0.066 17 877101 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.082 0.453 4.018 0.077 0.213 18 877102 1768 1990 223 0.999 0.089 0.850 4.486 0.069 0.447 19 877111 1784 1970 187 1.000 0.075 0.417 3.116 0.083 0.090 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 877112 1710 1977 268 0.999 0.103 0.603 3.520 0.096 0.280 21 877121 1908 1990 83 1.000 0.070 0.199 2.860 0.083 -0.089 22 877122 1747 1921 175 0.999 0.100 0.699 3.774 0.102 -0.060 23 877211 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.093 1.087 4.307 0.088 0.115 24 877212 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.082 0.675 3.437 0.076 0.227 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 0.999 0.093 0.678 4.245 0.082 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.022 0.451 2.160 0.011 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 195 1.000 0.088 0.623 3.688 0.083 0.220 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 66 0.000 0.021 0.386 0.916 0.013 0.359 MINIMUM VALUE 83 0.998 0.064 0.152 2.505 0.065 -0.089 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.999 0.080 0.401 3.268 0.074 0.091 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 222 1.000 0.101 0.786 4.184 0.087 0.451 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.166 2.264 12.229 0.108 0.609 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.248 0.129 0.008 -0.317 2.919 -0.130 0.584 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.130 SERIES 877021 AND 877062 154 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.584 SERIES 877111 AND 877112 187 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 91. 105. 171. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.200 0.334 0.333 0.241 0.206 0.263 0.231 0.232 SDEV 0.191 0.156 0.163 0.241 0.241 0.237 0.173 0.170 SERR 0.111 0.026 0.017 0.023 0.018 0.017 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.681 0.866 0.887 0.851 0.839 0.888 0.875 0.874 NSS 8.5 12.9 15.8 18.1 20.1 22.3 23.3 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1710 1990 281 0.999 0.060 0.449 3.004 0.067 0.040 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.265 0.160 -0.087 88 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.76 1.00 1.09 1.85 12.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.040 0.232 0.050 0.103 -0.030 0.018 -0.063 -0.008 -0.026 0.096 PACF 0.040 0.230 0.035 0.051 -0.056 -0.017 -0.054 -0.008 0.008 0.113 95% C.L. 0.119 0.120 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.056 0.031 0.231 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.044 0.207 -0.002 0.181 0.035 0.022 -0.103 0.001 -0.097 0.095 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.044 2 -0.035 0.205 3 -0.038 0.206 0.015 4 -0.040 0.176 0.020 0.146 5 -0.047 0.175 0.012 0.148 0.048 6 -0.045 0.181 0.012 0.154 0.046 -0.039 7 -0.050 0.187 0.033 0.156 0.070 -0.045 -0.130 8 -0.055 0.185 0.035 0.162 0.071 -0.038 -0.132 -0.038 9 -0.058 0.175 0.032 0.167 0.084 -0.035 -0.118 -0.042 -0.078 10 -0.050 0.179 0.045 0.171 0.075 -0.053 -0.121 -0.061 -0.072 0.107 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1504.95 1506.42 1496.30 1498.24 1494.21 1495.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1497.13 1494.30 1495.91 1496.20 1494.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.035 0.205 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.035 0.207 -0.014 0.043 -0.004 0.009 -0.001 0.002 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 877021 2 0.076 0.234 0.082 2 877022 2 0.149 0.258 0.198 3 877031 2 0.244 0.417 0.124 4 877032 2 0.312 0.307 0.326 5 877041 2 0.102 0.144 0.230 6 877042 2 0.017 0.078 0.044 7 877051 2 0.358 0.383 0.264 8 877052 2 0.393 0.516 0.158 9 877061 2 0.231 0.244 0.332 10 877062 2 0.408 0.445 0.262 11 877071 2 0.325 0.317 0.340 12 877072 2 0.107 0.144 0.263 13 877081 2 0.073 0.028 0.267 14 877082 2 0.071 0.167 0.175 15 877091 2 0.094 0.066 0.293 16 877092 2 0.044 0.054 0.195 17 877101 2 0.111 0.170 0.220 18 877102 2 0.243 0.360 0.196 19 877111 2 0.103 0.062 0.305 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 877112 2 0.175 0.203 0.276 21 877121 2 0.013 -0.083 0.061 22 877122 2 0.037 -0.050 0.178 23 877211 2 0.013 0.115 0.001 24 877212 2 0.073 0.203 0.113 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.157 0.199 0.204 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.126 0.156 0.095 MEDIAN 2 0.105 0.187 0.209 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.172 0.239 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 -0.083 0.001 LOWER HINGE 2 0.072 0.072 0.141 UPPER HINGE 2 0.243 0.312 0.271 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.408 0.516 0.340 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 877021 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.078 1.747 11.312 0.080 -0.006 2 877022 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.090 0.748 4.176 0.095 -0.020 3 877031 1742 1990 249 1.000 0.075 0.837 4.681 0.080 -0.011 4 877032 1833 1990 158 1.000 0.077 0.818 3.998 0.086 -0.054 5 877041 1870 1990 121 1.000 0.081 0.515 3.869 0.084 -0.031 6 877042 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.064 0.106 2.661 0.071 0.004 7 877051 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.094 0.371 4.182 0.107 -0.064 8 877052 1725 1987 263 1.000 0.129 1.048 6.627 0.141 -0.011 9 877061 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.090 1.205 7.497 0.088 0.024 10 877062 1837 1990 154 1.000 0.106 0.921 6.332 0.107 -0.012 11 877071 1826 1990 165 1.000 0.074 0.784 4.750 0.080 -0.033 12 877072 1831 1990 160 1.000 0.072 0.376 3.824 0.081 -0.013 13 877081 1787 1990 204 1.000 0.077 0.399 3.426 0.084 -0.009 14 877082 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.102 0.366 5.365 0.109 -0.001 15 877091 1749 1963 215 1.000 0.075 0.706 3.816 0.083 0.003 16 877092 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.079 0.780 3.858 0.088 -0.011 17 877101 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.078 0.463 3.979 0.084 -0.033 18 877102 1768 1990 223 1.000 0.078 0.820 4.657 0.083 -0.024 19 877111 1784 1970 187 1.000 0.072 0.340 2.705 0.084 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 877112 1710 1977 268 1.000 0.095 0.865 4.630 0.106 -0.048 21 877121 1908 1990 83 1.000 0.070 0.215 2.812 0.080 -0.002 22 877122 1747 1921 175 1.000 0.099 0.828 4.452 0.097 -0.007 23 877211 1881 1990 110 1.000 0.092 1.070 4.329 0.093 0.000 24 877212 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.080 0.693 3.623 0.085 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 1.000 0.084 0.709 4.648 0.091 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.014 0.360 1.836 0.015 0.020 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 195 1.000 0.079 0.764 4.179 0.085 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 66 0.000 0.018 0.463 0.895 0.014 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 83 1.000 0.064 0.106 2.661 0.071 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.075 0.388 3.820 0.082 -0.028 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 222 1.000 0.093 0.851 4.715 0.096 -0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 268 1.000 0.129 1.747 11.312 0.141 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.296 0.099 0.006 -0.156 2.915 0.005 0.580 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.005 SERIES 877041 AND 877121 83 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.580 SERIES 877111 AND 877112 187 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 36. 91. 105. 171. 190. 231. 231. RBAR 0.295 0.359 0.383 0.328 0.278 0.323 0.265 0.275 SDEV 0.082 0.122 0.115 0.155 0.153 0.172 0.156 0.137 SERR 0.047 0.020 0.012 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.782 0.879 0.907 0.898 0.885 0.914 0.894 0.897 NSS 8.5 12.9 15.8 18.1 20.1 22.3 23.3 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1710 1990 281 0.997 0.057 0.359 2.871 0.072 -0.206 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.255 0.147 -0.084 96 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.62 1.01 1.12 1.74 13.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.205 -0.014 -0.004 0.047 -0.069 0.012 -0.051 -0.054 -0.008 0.133 PACF -0.205 -0.059 -0.021 0.043 -0.053 -0.011 -0.057 -0.083 -0.038 0.122 95% C.L. 0.119 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.046 -0.206 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.015 0.035 -0.066 -0.017 -0.071 -0.063 0.003 0.115 PACF -0.001 -0.002 -0.015 0.035 -0.066 -0.018 -0.070 -0.068 0.006 0.111 95% C.L. 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1710 1990 281 0.997 0.057 0.383 2.927 0.067 -0.053 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 0.212 -0.048 0.075 -0.087 -0.004 -0.088 -0.036 -0.029 0.098 PACF -0.053 0.210 -0.030 0.029 -0.071 -0.034 -0.057 -0.043 0.003 0.113 95% C.L. 0.119 0.120 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.048 -0.042 0.211 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES