RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS042E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS042E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 886 1 Shchely Bozh WIDTH_EARLY PCOB - 886 2 Russia Black Spuce 65 6613-5620 1784 1990 - 886 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 886031 1830 1990 161 0.803 0.451 1.690 7.250 0.271 0.776 2 886032 1829 2150 322 0.884 0.490 1.096 4.515 0.280 0.769 3 886042 1835 1985 151 1.043 0.540 0.908 3.825 0.344 0.668 4 886051 1829 1990 162 0.611 0.339 0.676 2.953 0.339 0.750 5 886052 1832 1990 159 0.712 0.400 0.702 2.986 0.314 0.765 6 886181 1785 1990 206 0.532 0.240 0.812 4.170 0.316 0.649 7 886182 1784 1990 207 0.449 0.226 1.025 5.194 0.351 0.655 8 886191 1785 1990 206 0.603 0.412 1.211 4.666 0.316 0.833 9 886192 1788 1990 203 0.591 0.357 1.550 5.771 0.299 0.806 10 886201 1802 1990 189 0.312 0.168 1.508 5.185 0.326 0.674 11 886202 1798 1990 193 0.305 0.170 1.552 5.957 0.357 0.665 12 886211 1793 1990 198 0.367 0.139 0.544 3.334 0.312 0.394 13 886212 1795 1990 196 0.398 0.186 0.986 3.730 0.309 0.616 14 886221 1788 1990 203 0.403 0.191 0.351 3.197 0.323 0.697 15 886222 1794 1990 197 0.371 0.143 0.550 3.310 0.324 0.482 16 886231 1786 1990 205 0.437 0.190 0.852 3.985 0.289 0.617 17 886232 1787 2170 384 0.404 0.285 0.760 3.208 0.385 0.736 18 886242 1817 1990 174 0.489 0.309 1.073 4.310 0.371 0.706 19 886251 1787 1990 204 0.441 0.180 0.995 4.292 0.301 0.536 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 886252 1790 1990 201 0.540 0.212 1.269 5.210 0.270 0.604 21 886411 1788 1961 174 0.665 0.477 2.616 10.929 0.301 0.831 22 886412 1789 1990 202 0.585 0.468 2.656 12.126 0.316 0.854 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1784 TO 2170 387 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 0.543 0.299 1.154 5.005 0.319 0.686 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.189 0.130 0.596 2.380 0.030 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 0.510 0.262 1.010 4.301 0.316 0.685 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.208 0.227 0.747 1.876 0.038 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.305 0.139 0.351 2.953 0.270 0.394 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.403 0.186 0.760 3.334 0.301 0.617 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 205 0.611 0.412 1.508 5.210 0.339 0.769 MAXIMUM VALUE 384 1.043 0.540 2.656 12.126 0.385 0.854 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.377 0.220 0.015 -0.186 3.304 -0.342 0.961 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 886191 AND 886242 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.961 SERIES 886031 AND 886032 161 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. 1990. 2015. 2040. 2065. CORR 120. 231. 231. 231. 210. 190. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.395 0.412 0.438 0.334 0.298 0.372 0.626 0.333 -0.056 0.164 SDEV 0.263 0.238 0.247 0.277 0.256 0.267 0.267 0.267 0.267 0.267 SERR 0.024 0.016 0.016 0.018 0.018 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.930 0.939 0.945 0.917 0.903 0.927 0.952 0.541 -0.118 0.282 NSS 20.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.4 11.8 2.4 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2090. 2115. CORR 1. 1. RBAR 0.348 -0.071 SDEV 0.267 0.267 SERR 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.516 -0.152 NSS 2.0 2.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 2170 387 0.563 0.303 1.013 4.508 0.263 0.807 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.708 0.601 -0.018 112 275 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.50 1.01 1.26 2.76 19.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 200. 31. 151. 174. 205. 384. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.805 0.710 0.665 0.603 0.595 0.589 0.598 0.615 0.595 0.557 PACF 0.805 0.177 0.153 0.013 0.149 0.094 0.136 0.117 0.009 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.102 0.154 0.185 0.208 0.225 0.241 0.255 0.270 0.284 0.296 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.673 0.630 0.080 0.158 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 886031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00162635 0.93477798 2 886032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055440 0.79468799 3 886042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00450544 1.38585699 4 886051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00299654 0.85551417 5 886052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00481057 1.09692144 6 886181 1 0.49013114 0.05235736 0.00000000 0.48763034 7 886182 1 0.49646237 0.02895470 0.00000000 0.36755353 8 886191 1 1.29586697 0.04777506 0.00000000 0.47403106 9 886192 1 1.36309958 0.04667091 0.00000000 0.45055383 10 886201 1 0.28961772 0.03027152 0.00000000 0.26236990 11 886202 1 0.28272176 0.02701413 0.00000000 0.25208259 12 886211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022459 0.38977081 13 886212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00095659 0.49218369 14 886221 1 0.44714853 0.06290600 0.00000000 0.36932591 15 886222 1 0.28424168 0.01443152 0.00000000 0.27789825 16 886231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00199653 0.64247203 17 886232 1 0.48357871 0.01342768 0.00000000 0.31137732 18 886242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00330381 0.77758884 19 886251 1 0.27008551 0.02235460 0.00000000 0.38288289 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 886252 1 0.39024892 0.01163160 0.00000000 0.39051586 21 886411 1 1.77567637 0.05106800 0.00000000 0.47031119 22 886412 1 2.05788755 0.06170728 0.00000000 0.42544731 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 886031 1830 1990 161 0.997 0.549 1.706 7.349 0.269 0.766 2 886032 1829 2150 322 1.000 0.551 1.091 4.483 0.279 0.767 3 886042 1835 1985 151 0.992 0.482 1.037 4.193 0.341 0.640 4 886051 1829 1990 162 0.985 0.483 0.557 2.781 0.337 0.699 5 886052 1832 1990 159 0.976 0.430 0.695 3.162 0.312 0.672 6 886181 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.409 0.382 3.020 0.315 0.610 7 886182 1784 1990 207 1.000 0.427 0.177 2.575 0.349 0.598 8 886191 1785 1990 206 0.999 0.573 0.617 2.518 0.315 0.790 9 886192 1788 1990 203 1.001 0.427 0.705 3.652 0.299 0.622 10 886201 1802 1990 189 1.000 0.480 1.305 5.181 0.325 0.627 11 886202 1798 1990 193 1.000 0.505 1.212 4.292 0.355 0.605 12 886211 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.374 0.446 3.111 0.310 0.382 13 886212 1795 1990 196 0.999 0.438 0.885 3.617 0.308 0.582 14 886221 1788 1990 203 0.999 0.444 0.097 2.450 0.321 0.685 15 886222 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.338 0.321 3.056 0.323 0.354 16 886231 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.327 0.304 3.050 0.288 0.407 17 886232 1787 2170 384 1.000 0.727 1.337 5.705 0.384 0.726 18 886242 1817 1990 174 0.973 0.505 1.339 5.488 0.369 0.586 19 886251 1787 1990 204 1.000 0.369 0.662 3.864 0.300 0.460 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 886252 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.332 0.651 3.636 0.269 0.477 21 886411 1788 1961 174 1.002 0.408 0.432 3.279 0.301 0.534 22 886412 1789 1990 202 1.002 0.494 0.109 2.412 0.315 0.723 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 0.997 0.458 0.730 3.767 0.317 0.605 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.008 0.093 0.452 1.248 0.030 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.441 0.656 3.448 0.315 0.616 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.001 0.097 0.710 1.271 0.037 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.973 0.327 0.097 2.412 0.269 0.354 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.999 0.408 0.382 3.020 0.300 0.534 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 205 1.000 0.505 1.091 4.292 0.337 0.699 MAXIMUM VALUE 384 1.002 0.727 1.706 7.349 0.384 0.790 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 886031 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 886032 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 886042 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 886051 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 886052 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 886181 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 886182 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 886191 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 886192 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 886201 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 886202 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 886211 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 886212 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 886221 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 886222 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 886231 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 886232 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 886242 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 886251 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 886252 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 886411 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 886412 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 886031 1830 1990 161 0.996 0.361 1.127 5.303 0.268 0.463 2 886032 1829 2150 322 0.975 0.459 0.876 4.505 0.279 0.702 3 886042 1835 1985 151 0.994 0.382 0.558 2.925 0.341 0.454 4 886051 1829 1990 162 0.994 0.371 0.580 3.998 0.337 0.386 5 886052 1832 1990 159 0.994 0.326 0.327 2.900 0.312 0.404 6 886181 1785 1990 206 0.994 0.373 0.194 2.985 0.314 0.538 7 886182 1784 1990 207 0.993 0.397 0.140 2.877 0.349 0.509 8 886191 1785 1990 206 0.983 0.440 0.156 2.462 0.315 0.652 9 886192 1788 1990 203 0.996 0.411 0.631 3.650 0.299 0.603 10 886201 1802 1990 189 0.994 0.451 1.074 4.300 0.325 0.593 11 886202 1798 1990 193 0.994 0.470 0.961 3.738 0.355 0.566 12 886211 1793 1990 198 0.998 0.370 0.488 3.196 0.310 0.359 13 886212 1795 1990 196 0.997 0.416 0.777 3.513 0.308 0.538 14 886221 1788 1990 203 0.986 0.401 0.248 3.216 0.320 0.599 15 886222 1794 1990 197 0.996 0.320 0.383 3.073 0.323 0.260 16 886231 1786 1990 205 0.999 0.325 0.339 3.162 0.288 0.396 17 886232 1787 2170 384 0.961 0.557 0.848 4.171 0.384 0.599 18 886242 1817 1990 174 0.994 0.405 0.745 3.703 0.369 0.363 19 886251 1787 1990 204 0.999 0.364 0.623 3.854 0.300 0.448 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 886252 1790 1990 201 0.999 0.325 0.559 3.440 0.268 0.459 21 886411 1788 1961 174 0.993 0.351 0.700 3.817 0.300 0.367 22 886412 1789 1990 202 0.996 0.352 0.440 2.817 0.315 0.374 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 0.992 0.392 0.581 3.527 0.317 0.483 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.009 0.058 0.289 0.665 0.030 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 0.994 0.377 0.569 3.476 0.314 0.461 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.003 0.064 0.438 0.869 0.038 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 151 0.961 0.320 0.140 2.462 0.268 0.260 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.993 0.352 0.339 2.985 0.300 0.386 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 205 0.996 0.416 0.777 3.854 0.337 0.593 MAXIMUM VALUE 384 0.999 0.557 1.127 5.303 0.384 0.702 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.334 0.162 0.011 0.498 3.249 -0.022 0.878 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 886032 AND 886191 162 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.878 SERIES 886201 AND 886202 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. 1990. 2015. 2040. 2065. CORR 120. 231. 231. 231. 210. 190. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.404 0.434 0.447 0.359 0.258 0.303 0.578 0.270 -0.084 0.146 SDEV 0.245 0.218 0.226 0.272 0.218 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 SERR 0.022 0.014 0.015 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.932 0.944 0.947 0.925 0.884 0.903 0.942 0.466 -0.184 0.255 NSS 20.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.4 11.8 2.4 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2090. 2115. CORR 1. 1. RBAR 0.193 -0.269 SDEV 0.217 0.217 SERR 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.323 -0.737 NSS 2.0 2.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 2170 387 0.990 0.353 0.440 3.768 0.281 0.508 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.316 0.200 0.117 66 321 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.04 1.00 1.09 2.13 5.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.507 0.381 0.325 0.256 0.231 0.198 0.207 0.188 0.150 0.122 PACF 0.507 0.166 0.110 0.033 0.053 0.023 0.069 0.027 -0.009 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.102 0.125 0.137 0.144 0.149 0.153 0.155 0.158 0.160 0.162 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.287 0.405 0.119 0.109 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.360 0.280 0.214 0.142 0.156 0.035 0.079 -0.011 -0.007 0.000 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.360 2 0.297 0.173 3 0.283 0.150 0.080 4 0.282 0.148 0.077 0.013 5 0.281 0.142 0.066 -0.006 0.069 6 0.287 0.142 0.072 0.005 0.092 -0.080 7 0.291 0.138 0.071 0.002 0.085 -0.093 0.047 8 0.294 0.131 0.078 0.002 0.090 -0.084 0.067 -0.072 9 0.293 0.131 0.077 0.002 0.090 -0.083 0.068 -0.070 -0.006 10 0.294 0.131 0.077 0.003 0.090 -0.083 0.068 -0.070 -0.007 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3288.03 3236.43 3226.60 3226.09 3228.03 3228.16 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3227.67 3228.83 3228.85 3230.83 3232.83 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.283 0.150 0.080 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.19 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.283 0.230 0.188 0.110 0.078 0.054 0.036 0.024 0.017 0.0112 0.008 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 886031 3 0.294 0.398 0.303 -0.159 2 886032 3 0.506 0.603 0.183 -0.050 3 886042 3 0.293 0.476 0.043 -0.230 4 886051 3 0.206 0.336 0.187 -0.013 5 886052 3 0.186 0.366 0.130 -0.053 6 886181 3 0.323 0.454 0.131 0.048 7 886182 3 0.328 0.352 0.239 0.084 8 886191 3 0.475 0.471 0.212 0.084 9 886192 3 0.371 0.556 0.080 0.002 10 886201 3 0.355 0.596 -0.026 0.038 11 886202 3 0.326 0.594 -0.069 0.044 12 886211 3 0.158 0.312 0.099 0.082 13 886212 3 0.306 0.475 0.154 -0.048 14 886221 3 0.432 0.388 0.199 0.174 15 886222 3 0.102 0.205 0.108 0.135 16 886231 3 0.182 0.347 0.048 0.135 17 886232 3 0.395 0.465 0.122 0.127 18 886242 3 0.138 0.357 0.018 0.010 19 886251 3 0.256 0.323 0.158 0.149 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 886252 3 0.254 0.358 0.115 0.145 21 886411 3 0.149 0.344 0.020 0.101 22 886412 3 0.185 0.302 0.084 0.161 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.283 0.413 0.115 0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.112 0.107 0.089 0.105 MEDIAN 3 0.294 0.377 0.118 0.065 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.170 0.131 0.135 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.102 0.205 -0.069 -0.230 LOWER HINGE 3 0.185 0.344 0.048 -0.013 UPPER HINGE 3 0.355 0.475 0.183 0.135 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.506 0.603 0.303 0.174 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 886031 1830 1990 161 1.000 0.301 1.136 6.239 0.313 -0.021 2 886032 1829 2150 322 1.001 0.321 0.583 4.494 0.341 0.000 3 886042 1835 1985 151 1.000 0.328 0.291 2.817 0.400 -0.056 4 886051 1829 1990 162 1.000 0.332 0.370 3.295 0.371 0.017 5 886052 1832 1990 159 1.000 0.296 0.106 3.042 0.351 0.007 6 886181 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.309 0.142 3.761 0.377 0.012 7 886182 1784 1990 207 1.000 0.326 0.267 3.379 0.386 0.013 8 886191 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.318 0.252 3.012 0.355 -0.008 9 886192 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.326 0.494 4.677 0.365 0.001 10 886201 1802 1990 189 1.000 0.363 0.871 4.394 0.406 -0.002 11 886202 1798 1990 193 1.000 0.385 0.644 3.580 0.442 -0.002 12 886211 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.339 0.801 4.112 0.350 -0.012 13 886212 1795 1990 196 1.000 0.346 0.826 4.200 0.366 0.000 14 886221 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.303 0.007 3.456 0.351 0.017 15 886222 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.303 0.403 3.167 0.352 0.002 16 886231 1786 1990 205 1.000 0.294 0.338 3.343 0.338 0.003 17 886232 1787 2170 384 1.001 0.432 1.484 9.673 0.445 -0.014 18 886242 1817 1990 174 1.000 0.377 0.682 4.008 0.426 0.001 19 886251 1787 1990 204 1.000 0.314 0.593 5.192 0.353 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 886252 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.281 0.384 3.639 0.310 -0.007 21 886411 1788 1961 174 1.000 0.323 0.578 3.680 0.344 0.000 22 886412 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.319 0.278 2.933 0.355 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 1.000 0.329 0.524 4.095 0.368 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 52 0.000 0.035 0.350 1.489 0.037 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.322 0.449 3.660 0.355 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.035 0.404 1.098 0.036 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 151 1.000 0.281 0.007 2.817 0.310 -0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.303 0.278 3.295 0.350 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 205 1.000 0.339 0.682 4.394 0.386 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 384 1.001 0.432 1.484 9.673 0.445 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.402 0.118 0.008 0.658 4.493 0.095 0.816 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.095 SERIES 886042 AND 886202 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.816 SERIES 886201 AND 886202 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. 1990. 2015. 2040. 2065. CORR 120. 231. 231. 231. 210. 190. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.546 0.459 0.439 0.416 0.313 0.373 0.369 0.086 -0.132 0.107 SDEV 0.120 0.132 0.164 0.171 0.174 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.176 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.961 0.949 0.945 0.940 0.909 0.927 0.873 0.181 -0.305 0.193 NSS 20.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.4 11.8 2.4 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2090. 2115. CORR 1. 1. RBAR 0.124 0.005 SDEV 0.176 0.176 SERR 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.221 0.011 NSS 2.0 2.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 2170 387 0.998 0.291 0.663 5.829 0.329 -0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.262 0.180 0.083 80 307 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.75 1.00 1.06 1.81 5.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.10 0.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.060 -0.042 -0.017 0.008 0.030 -0.006 0.065 0.030 -0.015 -0.019 PACF -0.060 -0.046 -0.022 0.003 0.029 -0.002 0.067 0.040 -0.005 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.033 0.001 0.068 0.037 -0.007 -0.012 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.033 0.001 0.068 0.037 -0.007 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 2170 387 0.998 0.319 0.559 4.159 0.281 0.373 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.372 0.299 0.240 0.174 0.158 0.117 0.139 0.109 0.066 0.051 PACF 0.372 0.186 0.097 0.027 0.043 0.008 0.060 0.013 -0.024 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.102 0.115 0.123 0.127 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.176 0.285 0.157 0.096 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES