RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: russ044i.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: russ044i.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney DENSITY_EARLY LASI - 892 2 Russia Siberian larch 120 6326-4333 1729 1990 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 892161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 892162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 892171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 5 GAPS / 1811 1813 / 1828 1842 / 1854 1854 / 1902 1919 / / 1949 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 892172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1814 1814 / 1836 1836 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 892182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 51 IN 4 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1876 1876 / 1880 1881 / 1909 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 892192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1893 1893 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892193 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 892202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1832 1832 / 1885 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 892211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1811 1835 / 1884 1890 / 1910 1910 / 1952 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 892212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 892232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 892242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1888 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 892243 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 110 IN 3 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1845 1848 / 1860 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1822 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 892261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1933 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 892262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1822 1822 / 1836 1836 / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1787 1790 / 1851 1878 / 1967 1968 / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 892282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 3 GAPS / 1813 1813 / 1826 1844 / 1901 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 892291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 3 GAPS / 1785 1827 / 1842 1842 / 1866 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 892292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 892302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1846 1850 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 892442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1967 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 3.295 0.232 0.612 2.456 0.060 0.404 2 892162 1815 1990 176 3.327 0.416 0.841 4.522 0.074 0.563 3 892171 1789 1990 202 3.612 0.614 2.003 9.478 0.112 0.377 4 892172 1789 1990 202 3.212 0.454 0.564 3.103 0.091 0.584 5 892182 1831 1988 158 3.121 0.397 0.969 5.092 0.110 0.304 6 892183 1841 1990 150 2.651 0.430 1.516 5.926 0.114 0.413 7 892192 1827 1990 164 2.356 0.529 1.255 7.388 0.096 0.767 8 892193 1794 1990 197 2.129 0.438 0.194 2.308 0.089 0.861 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.957 0.222 1.923 10.381 0.099 0.164 10 892202 1774 1952 179 2.217 0.351 0.611 4.071 0.093 0.655 11 892211 1766 1990 225 2.560 0.534 0.728 4.185 0.097 0.702 12 892212 1818 1990 173 2.463 0.524 -0.106 2.426 0.100 0.807 13 892231 1843 1890 48 2.657 0.292 0.481 2.722 0.099 0.289 14 892232 1804 1955 152 3.064 0.386 0.486 3.499 0.112 0.325 15 892242 1795 1989 195 3.293 0.501 1.209 4.394 0.077 0.671 16 892243 1757 1988 232 3.353 0.517 0.065 2.724 0.079 0.796 17 892251 1790 1990 201 2.865 0.305 0.902 6.750 0.083 0.409 18 892261 1740 1990 251 3.074 0.410 1.190 7.515 0.079 0.623 19 892262 1729 1990 262 3.048 0.366 1.399 8.169 0.087 0.369 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 2.959 0.370 1.381 8.576 0.112 0.108 21 892272 1743 1990 248 2.739 0.408 2.011 10.927 0.123 0.159 22 892282 1776 1990 215 2.597 0.419 1.923 8.663 0.128 0.220 23 892283 1795 1922 128 2.322 0.370 2.343 12.618 0.109 0.433 24 892291 1750 1910 161 3.416 0.408 1.972 10.081 0.109 -0.004 25 892292 1776 1867 92 3.046 0.261 0.119 3.200 0.079 0.235 26 892301 1788 1990 203 3.003 0.420 0.709 3.368 0.098 0.542 27 892302 1807 1956 150 2.997 0.374 1.487 7.809 0.098 0.264 28 892441 1847 1990 144 3.400 0.417 0.318 3.099 0.079 0.672 29 892442 1839 1990 152 3.561 0.412 1.307 5.973 0.086 0.295 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1729 TO 1990 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 2.907 0.406 1.049 5.911 0.096 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.445 0.091 0.673 3.007 0.016 0.233 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 157 3.003 0.410 0.969 5.092 0.097 0.409 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.696 0.068 0.923 4.968 0.026 0.366 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.957 0.222 -0.106 2.308 0.060 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 2.597 0.370 0.564 3.200 0.083 0.289 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 3.293 0.438 1.487 8.169 0.109 0.655 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 3.612 0.614 2.343 12.618 0.128 0.861 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.299 0.178 0.009 -0.108 2.770 -0.208 0.719 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.208 SERIES 892243 AND 892283 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.719 SERIES 892162 AND 892243 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.253 0.332 0.253 0.237 0.305 0.282 0.311 0.331 SDEV 0.153 0.214 0.232 0.244 0.221 0.248 0.255 0.206 SERR 0.062 0.036 0.019 0.017 0.013 0.016 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.765 0.893 0.884 0.889 0.919 0.907 0.917 0.919 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 2.917 0.241 0.138 3.571 0.067 0.439 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.193 0.136 0.112 50 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.44 1.01 1.06 1.49 3.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 173. 52. 47. 150. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.437 0.361 0.304 0.240 0.321 0.339 0.282 0.302 0.280 0.276 PACF 0.437 0.210 0.114 0.041 0.185 0.148 0.030 0.085 0.065 0.058 95% C.L. 0.124 0.145 0.158 0.167 0.172 0.181 0.191 0.197 0.204 0.210 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.246 0.320 0.176 0.119 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 1 0.41670588 0.03145237 0.00000000 3.08890605 2 892162 1 2.44538164 0.00302655 0.00000000 1.43671167 3 892171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422242 4.07737350 4 892172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00500271 3.71568632 5 892182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121501 3.22403622 6 892183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00380257 2.93769383 7 892192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00530950 2.79672194 8 892193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00548475 2.67113018 9 892201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126638 2.00152802 10 892202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107433 2.29701757 11 892211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00361528 3.00415039 12 892212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00480425 2.87581730 13 892231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037831 2.64760637 14 892232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144814 2.96403956 15 892242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00568265 3.95176339 16 892243 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00478612 3.70473528 17 892251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067666 2.79983401 18 892261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00174940 3.28367758 19 892262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123395 2.88517642 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 1 0.13578756 0.01112879 0.00000000 2.90676284 21 892272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110583 2.86534858 22 892282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046568 2.64427257 23 892283 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00378711 2.07737207 24 892291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174856 3.28780532 25 892292 1 0.09707560 0.06583595 0.00000000 3.02924800 26 892301 1 0.94827020 0.02431259 0.00000000 2.81412506 27 892302 1 0.20405726 0.03929494 0.00000000 2.97280312 28 892441 1 1.25837731 0.01236008 0.00000000 2.81605792 29 892442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200305 3.41858959 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.066 0.493 2.554 0.058 0.256 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.089 2.078 11.425 0.073 0.140 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.144 1.792 9.090 0.115 0.207 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.112 1.490 6.468 0.093 0.300 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.119 0.849 5.067 0.107 0.271 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.148 1.711 6.592 0.113 0.313 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.999 0.190 1.294 7.181 0.099 0.677 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.999 0.140 0.679 3.029 0.090 0.679 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.113 2.054 11.243 0.097 0.148 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.154 0.549 4.279 0.094 0.637 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.999 0.174 0.935 4.586 0.105 0.585 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.999 0.190 0.287 2.377 0.101 0.771 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.110 0.475 2.706 0.097 0.283 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.127 0.598 3.491 0.114 0.279 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.111 1.293 8.440 0.077 0.462 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.114 1.700 7.142 0.077 0.565 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.106 0.978 7.337 0.083 0.394 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.122 1.165 6.480 0.080 0.566 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.115 1.231 7.746 0.086 0.324 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.128 1.287 7.138 0.116 0.103 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.145 1.788 9.922 0.125 0.143 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.164 1.431 6.919 0.131 0.263 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.146 2.763 16.259 0.109 0.330 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.113 1.503 8.606 0.115 -0.011 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.084 0.296 3.262 0.081 0.202 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.118 0.980 5.265 0.097 0.351 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.123 1.464 7.819 0.099 0.265 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.088 0.226 3.310 0.078 0.350 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.115 1.050 4.980 0.091 0.225 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.126 1.188 6.576 0.097 0.347 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.030 0.611 3.146 0.017 0.195 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.119 1.231 6.592 0.097 0.300 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.033 0.824 3.540 0.026 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.999 0.066 0.226 2.377 0.058 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.112 0.679 4.279 0.083 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.145 1.503 7.819 0.109 0.462 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.190 2.763 16.259 0.131 0.771 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892162 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892171 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892172 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892182 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892183 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892201 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892202 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892211 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892212 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892231 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892232 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892242 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892243 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892251 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892261 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892262 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892272 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892282 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892283 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892292 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892301 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892302 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892441 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 892442 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.054 0.314 2.471 0.058 -0.007 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.088 2.199 12.104 0.073 0.117 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.128 2.171 10.879 0.115 -0.001 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.106 1.598 6.904 0.093 0.233 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.116 0.981 5.854 0.107 0.230 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.143 1.865 7.600 0.113 0.248 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.998 0.165 1.634 10.204 0.099 0.582 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.999 0.114 0.303 2.997 0.090 0.519 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.103 1.757 9.844 0.097 0.033 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.999 0.129 0.672 4.396 0.094 0.502 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.999 0.130 1.025 5.893 0.105 0.289 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.998 0.140 0.270 3.777 0.100 0.539 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.105 0.945 3.449 0.097 0.203 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.999 0.117 0.900 4.256 0.114 0.144 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.999 0.095 1.950 13.905 0.077 0.281 16 892243 1757 1988 232 0.999 0.101 1.307 6.334 0.077 0.453 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.999 0.096 1.501 11.272 0.083 0.238 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.999 0.113 1.203 7.691 0.080 0.488 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.106 1.386 8.480 0.086 0.222 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.999 0.123 1.427 7.523 0.116 0.017 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.143 1.845 10.364 0.125 0.116 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.161 1.572 7.748 0.130 0.224 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.999 0.134 2.633 14.645 0.109 0.248 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.112 1.487 8.564 0.115 -0.026 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.078 0.319 3.694 0.081 0.062 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.112 0.950 4.715 0.097 0.282 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.999 0.112 1.812 10.395 0.098 0.130 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.085 0.315 3.415 0.078 0.305 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.114 1.093 5.131 0.091 0.203 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.999 0.115 1.291 7.397 0.097 0.237 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.024 0.633 3.369 0.017 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.113 1.386 7.523 0.097 0.230 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.026 0.812 5.808 0.025 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.998 0.054 0.270 2.471 0.058 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.999 0.103 0.945 4.396 0.083 0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.129 1.757 10.204 0.109 0.289 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.165 2.633 14.645 0.130 0.582 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.289 0.144 0.007 -0.154 2.970 -0.140 0.685 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.140 SERIES 892192 AND 892242 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.685 SERIES 892292 AND 892441 21 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.320 0.329 0.273 0.244 0.301 0.334 0.279 0.287 SDEV 0.137 0.214 0.224 0.222 0.210 0.209 0.221 0.210 SERR 0.056 0.036 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.820 0.891 0.894 0.892 0.918 0.926 0.904 0.902 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.991 0.064 0.698 4.301 0.065 0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.462 0.267 -0.186 112 150 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.97 1.00 1.10 2.06 25.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.117 0.007 -0.007 -0.108 0.024 0.046 -0.034 -0.031 0.004 0.023 PACF 0.117 -0.007 -0.007 -0.107 0.050 0.039 -0.046 -0.034 0.021 0.030 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 0.119 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.111 0.027 0.028 -0.113 0.017 0.087 -0.030 -0.009 0.035 0.048 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.111 2 0.109 0.015 3 0.109 0.013 0.023 4 0.111 0.014 0.036 -0.121 5 0.117 0.013 0.036 -0.125 0.043 6 0.113 0.024 0.033 -0.126 0.032 0.087 7 0.117 0.025 0.027 -0.125 0.034 0.092 -0.045 8 0.116 0.027 0.028 -0.128 0.034 0.093 -0.043 -0.021 9 0.117 0.029 0.024 -0.129 0.040 0.092 -0.044 -0.026 0.043 10 0.114 0.031 0.027 -0.135 0.037 0.100 -0.045 -0.028 0.035 0.066 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1609.08 1607.86 1609.80 1611.65 1609.82 1611.34 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1611.34 1612.80 1614.68 1616.20 1617.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.111 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.22 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.111 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892161 1 0.010 -0.008 2 892162 1 0.014 0.119 3 892171 1 0.000 -0.001 4 892172 1 0.085 0.237 5 892182 1 0.054 0.231 6 892183 1 0.065 0.250 7 892192 1 0.361 0.588 8 892193 1 0.314 0.521 9 892201 1 0.001 0.033 10 892202 1 0.257 0.504 11 892211 1 0.095 0.292 12 892212 1 0.325 0.554 13 892231 1 0.073 0.204 14 892232 1 0.021 0.145 15 892242 1 0.102 0.283 16 892243 1 0.277 0.473 17 892251 1 0.090 0.241 18 892261 1 0.273 0.490 19 892262 1 0.084 0.223 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892271 1 0.018 0.017 21 892272 1 0.026 0.116 22 892282 1 0.062 0.224 23 892283 1 0.071 0.249 24 892291 1 0.007 -0.026 25 892292 1 0.006 0.064 26 892301 1 0.083 0.286 27 892302 1 0.017 0.132 28 892441 1 0.098 0.312 29 892442 1 0.076 0.203 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.102 0.240 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.176 MEDIAN 1 0.073 0.231 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.079 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.026 LOWER HINGE 1 0.018 0.119 UPPER HINGE 1 0.098 0.292 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.361 0.588 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.054 0.312 2.459 0.058 0.001 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.087 2.279 12.503 0.077 -0.001 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.128 2.171 10.877 0.115 0.000 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.103 1.625 7.125 0.104 -0.042 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.112 1.005 5.994 0.119 -0.008 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.139 1.812 7.815 0.128 -0.011 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.133 1.596 14.025 0.132 -0.091 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.098 0.134 3.272 0.118 -0.125 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.103 1.742 9.813 0.099 0.000 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.111 0.267 5.489 0.117 -0.031 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.125 0.892 6.895 0.122 -0.027 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.117 0.063 5.470 0.127 -0.069 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.103 0.893 3.443 0.104 0.036 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.116 0.801 3.937 0.122 -0.004 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.091 2.236 17.299 0.088 -0.042 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.089 0.993 6.108 0.097 -0.104 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.093 1.429 12.004 0.094 -0.043 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.098 1.548 12.869 0.101 -0.101 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.103 1.260 10.209 0.097 -0.043 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.123 1.438 7.543 0.118 -0.002 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.142 1.823 10.577 0.135 -0.013 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.157 1.489 8.250 0.148 -0.024 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.130 3.007 17.246 0.121 -0.025 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.112 1.493 8.600 0.113 0.002 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.078 0.298 3.731 0.083 -0.001 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.107 1.035 5.508 0.111 -0.008 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.111 1.866 11.092 0.105 0.001 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.081 0.117 3.173 0.090 0.010 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.111 1.149 6.092 0.100 -0.038 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.109 1.268 8.256 0.108 -0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.021 0.734 4.069 0.019 0.038 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.111 1.429 7.543 0.111 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.025 0.850 5.387 0.024 0.042 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.054 0.063 2.459 0.058 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.098 0.892 5.489 0.097 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.123 1.742 10.877 0.121 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.157 3.007 17.299 0.148 0.036 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.310 0.139 0.007 -0.064 2.822 -0.107 0.705 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 892192 AND 892291 84 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.705 SERIES 892292 AND 892441 21 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.359 0.330 0.303 0.266 0.314 0.366 0.309 0.342 SDEV 0.138 0.201 0.213 0.199 0.182 0.180 0.202 0.197 SERR 0.057 0.034 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.844 0.891 0.907 0.903 0.923 0.935 0.916 0.922 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.993 0.062 0.523 4.385 0.071 -0.113 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.440 0.251 -0.177 124 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.68 1.00 1.08 1.76 13.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.112 -0.032 0.017 -0.137 0.006 0.054 -0.039 -0.027 -0.007 0.051 PACF -0.112 -0.045 0.008 -0.138 -0.026 0.042 -0.029 -0.051 -0.022 0.060 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 -0.114 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.045 -0.003 -0.138 -0.002 0.053 -0.036 -0.033 -0.005 0.041 PACF -0.006 -0.045 -0.004 -0.140 -0.005 0.040 -0.038 -0.049 -0.010 0.051 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.993 0.062 0.668 4.417 0.064 0.098 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.097 -0.037 -0.023 -0.138 -0.011 0.048 -0.033 -0.037 -0.007 0.031 PACF 0.097 -0.047 -0.015 -0.137 0.015 0.037 -0.046 -0.046 -0.001 0.041 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 0.099 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES