RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: russ044l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: russ044l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney WIDTH_LATE LASI - 892 2 Russia Siberian larch 120 6326-4333 1729 1990 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 892161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 892162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 892171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 5 GAPS / 1811 1813 / 1828 1842 / 1854 1854 / 1902 1919 / / 1949 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 892172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 892182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1909 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 892192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1893 1893 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892193 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 892202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1832 1832 / 1885 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 892211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1811 1835 / 1884 1890 / 1910 1910 / 1952 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 892212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 892232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 892242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1888 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 892243 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 108 IN 2 GAPS / 1845 1848 / 1861 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1822 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 892261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1933 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 892262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 4 GAPS / 1787 1790 / 1851 1878 / 1968 1968 / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 892282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 2 GAPS / 1826 1844 / 1901 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 892291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 52 IN 2 GAPS / 1785 1827 / 1866 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 892292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 892302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1846 1850 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 892442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1967 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 0.389 0.149 1.045 3.748 0.395 0.181 2 892162 1815 1990 176 0.284 0.138 1.069 4.168 0.333 0.483 3 892171 1789 1990 202 0.258 0.132 0.950 4.510 0.340 0.645 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.287 0.123 0.489 3.548 0.307 0.601 5 892182 1831 1988 158 0.322 0.167 0.611 3.442 0.437 0.522 6 892183 1841 1990 150 0.516 0.282 1.197 5.485 0.400 0.563 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.410 0.302 0.751 2.896 0.320 0.794 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.194 0.134 1.732 6.111 0.225 0.875 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.263 0.091 0.587 3.473 0.249 0.535 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.267 0.087 0.886 4.121 0.261 0.440 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.260 0.120 0.812 3.842 0.283 0.635 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.244 0.126 0.747 3.190 0.306 0.662 13 892231 1843 1890 48 0.190 0.093 1.210 4.615 0.383 0.484 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.162 0.105 1.318 3.922 0.327 0.771 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.285 0.178 1.436 5.154 0.308 0.740 16 892243 1757 1988 232 0.384 0.194 0.898 4.963 0.337 0.663 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.347 0.264 1.816 7.048 0.364 0.737 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.224 0.116 1.355 5.561 0.316 0.638 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.239 0.102 0.886 3.574 0.303 0.608 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.149 0.086 1.288 5.193 0.308 0.646 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.170 0.110 1.130 3.511 0.301 0.789 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.196 0.117 1.097 4.050 0.266 0.817 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.181 0.112 1.875 8.306 0.269 0.797 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.458 0.248 0.441 2.718 0.363 0.592 25 892292 1776 1867 92 0.526 0.192 0.073 3.202 0.271 0.674 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.268 0.145 1.246 4.979 0.313 0.692 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.318 0.161 1.173 4.800 0.342 0.658 28 892441 1847 1990 144 0.205 0.104 0.709 2.865 0.337 0.662 29 892442 1839 1990 152 0.246 0.164 1.518 5.507 0.344 0.769 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1729 TO 1990 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.284 0.150 1.046 4.431 0.321 0.644 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.101 0.059 0.419 1.289 0.048 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 158 0.263 0.132 1.069 4.121 0.316 0.658 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.117 0.057 0.537 1.643 0.041 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.149 0.086 0.073 2.718 0.225 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.205 0.110 0.751 3.511 0.301 0.592 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.322 0.167 1.288 5.154 0.342 0.740 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 0.526 0.302 1.875 8.306 0.437 0.875 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.413 0.212 0.011 -0.680 3.114 -0.262 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.262 SERIES 892192 AND 892201 70 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 892231 AND 892232 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.208 0.542 0.503 0.465 0.321 0.384 0.415 0.415 SDEV 0.418 0.148 0.152 0.201 0.218 0.214 0.257 0.202 SERR 0.171 0.025 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.717 0.952 0.958 0.957 0.925 0.939 0.945 0.942 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.259 0.093 0.705 3.279 0.232 0.694 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.726 0.493 0.000 128 134 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.34 1.00 1.13 2.47 71.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 173. 52. 47. 150. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.691 0.511 0.413 0.356 0.345 0.305 0.294 0.233 0.199 0.192 PACF 0.691 0.063 0.073 0.062 0.100 0.003 0.069 -0.061 0.017 0.033 95% C.L. 0.124 0.173 0.194 0.207 0.217 0.225 0.231 0.237 0.240 0.243 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.482 0.693 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00480104 0.49996194 2 892162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013043 0.27345607 3 892171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108956 0.16425112 4 892172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00085202 0.20681956 5 892182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047034 0.30369881 6 892183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104271 0.59512484 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160868 0.35322261 9 892201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191094 0.19530435 10 892202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017323 0.28878313 11 892211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023353 0.29910901 12 892212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013567 0.25891727 13 892231 1 0.64220238 0.63506418 0.00000000 0.17533547 14 892232 1 0.17197303 0.02195216 0.00000000 0.11246624 15 892242 1 0.36427259 0.02006821 0.00000000 0.19874039 16 892243 1 0.32436624 0.00940378 0.00000000 0.16065149 17 892251 1 0.75389898 0.01529510 0.00000000 0.11939238 18 892261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044819 0.27798617 19 892262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015943 0.25954062 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111270 0.23989606 21 892272 1 0.32937568 0.01372795 0.00000000 0.07852190 22 892282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00145671 0.35109955 23 892283 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00174799 0.29344857 24 892291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00274917 0.70263219 25 892292 1 0.23443335 0.04727761 0.00000000 0.45777872 26 892301 1 0.33367160 0.01264209 0.00000000 0.14896020 27 892302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159761 0.44020453 28 892441 1 0.15757096 0.07252002 0.00000000 0.19017452 29 892442 1 0.58333856 0.05078532 0.00000000 0.16914767 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.344 0.906 3.364 0.387 0.004 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.478 0.999 3.992 0.327 0.484 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.002 0.469 0.468 2.884 0.328 0.666 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.999 0.413 0.365 3.013 0.301 0.615 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.503 0.660 3.301 0.402 0.553 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.534 1.060 4.738 0.397 0.567 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.005 0.462 1.057 4.556 0.319 0.583 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.045 0.498 1.430 4.634 0.228 0.787 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.998 0.314 0.603 3.011 0.245 0.451 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.319 0.760 3.761 0.254 0.478 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.440 0.587 3.356 0.267 0.663 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.513 0.726 3.176 0.305 0.670 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.414 0.526 2.686 0.368 0.396 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.591 1.467 4.673 0.323 0.712 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.464 0.844 3.690 0.298 0.664 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.001 0.547 1.313 5.875 0.317 0.715 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.003 0.486 1.292 4.937 0.356 0.516 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.997 0.460 1.092 4.684 0.304 0.590 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.420 0.802 3.421 0.301 0.590 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.991 0.389 1.083 5.055 0.306 0.441 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.999 0.405 1.462 9.237 0.304 0.484 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.090 0.747 4.377 32.928 0.247 0.696 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.518 2.879 13.384 0.268 0.647 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.992 0.445 0.787 3.701 0.326 0.494 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.366 0.575 3.997 0.251 0.674 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.999 0.426 0.735 3.271 0.311 0.520 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.999 0.410 0.414 3.312 0.331 0.528 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.506 0.930 3.451 0.335 0.653 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.503 1.539 7.270 0.350 0.593 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.004 0.462 1.094 5.495 0.312 0.567 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.019 0.086 0.802 5.715 0.045 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.462 0.906 3.761 0.311 0.590 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.001 0.090 0.632 1.426 0.033 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.991 0.314 0.365 2.686 0.228 0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.999 0.413 0.660 3.312 0.298 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.503 1.292 4.738 0.331 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.090 0.747 4.377 32.928 0.402 0.787 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892162 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892171 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892172 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892182 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892183 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892201 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892202 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892211 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892212 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892231 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892232 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892242 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892243 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892251 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892261 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892262 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892272 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892282 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892283 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892292 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892301 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892302 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892441 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 892442 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.338 0.895 3.382 0.386 -0.018 2 892162 1815 1990 176 0.998 0.471 1.063 3.955 0.327 0.450 3 892171 1789 1990 202 0.993 0.446 0.443 3.077 0.328 0.633 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.996 0.394 0.283 2.810 0.301 0.581 5 892182 1831 1988 158 0.995 0.489 0.600 3.099 0.402 0.514 6 892183 1841 1990 150 0.993 0.499 0.796 4.039 0.397 0.546 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.993 0.429 0.910 3.920 0.319 0.537 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.989 0.366 1.142 4.248 0.227 0.662 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.998 0.302 1.061 4.159 0.245 0.396 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.998 0.307 0.651 3.472 0.254 0.455 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.992 0.392 0.342 3.195 0.268 0.607 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.991 0.483 0.753 3.741 0.305 0.626 13 892231 1843 1890 48 0.998 0.371 0.065 2.395 0.372 0.286 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.989 0.534 1.568 5.805 0.322 0.688 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.987 0.407 0.774 3.402 0.298 0.579 16 892243 1757 1988 232 0.979 0.436 1.197 6.279 0.317 0.622 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.997 0.470 1.185 4.264 0.356 0.489 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.996 0.418 0.825 3.903 0.304 0.527 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.996 0.376 0.472 2.734 0.301 0.515 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.997 0.358 0.835 4.782 0.306 0.354 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.996 0.374 1.057 7.017 0.305 0.433 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.985 0.370 1.200 6.672 0.247 0.605 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.991 0.448 2.493 11.773 0.268 0.612 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.995 0.412 0.742 3.834 0.327 0.462 25 892292 1776 1867 92 0.995 0.333 0.217 3.265 0.250 0.604 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.998 0.421 0.788 3.485 0.311 0.509 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.993 0.388 0.572 4.117 0.330 0.473 28 892441 1847 1990 144 0.998 0.496 0.872 3.360 0.335 0.640 29 892442 1839 1990 152 0.996 0.461 1.238 6.018 0.350 0.532 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.994 0.413 0.863 4.352 0.312 0.514 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.005 0.060 0.465 1.858 0.045 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.995 0.412 0.825 3.903 0.311 0.532 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.005 0.090 0.463 0.904 0.033 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.979 0.302 0.065 2.395 0.227 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.992 0.371 0.600 3.360 0.298 0.462 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 0.997 0.461 1.063 4.264 0.330 0.607 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.534 2.493 11.773 0.402 0.688 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.414 0.142 0.007 -0.465 3.579 -0.047 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.047 SERIES 892192 AND 892242 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 892201 AND 892302 39 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.374 0.570 0.528 0.425 0.373 0.406 0.454 0.427 SDEV 0.249 0.131 0.146 0.192 0.210 0.208 0.212 0.190 SERR 0.102 0.022 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.852 0.957 0.962 0.950 0.939 0.945 0.953 0.944 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.983 0.289 0.511 3.049 0.209 0.598 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.372 0.146 0.130 88 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.59 1.00 1.10 1.70 9.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.595 0.319 0.158 0.102 0.066 0.072 0.074 -0.018 -0.071 -0.096 PACF 0.595 -0.054 -0.015 0.040 -0.004 0.047 0.017 -0.124 -0.022 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.124 0.162 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.176 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.360 0.598 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.595 0.307 0.167 0.122 0.083 0.070 0.029 -0.097 -0.153 -0.186 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.595 2 0.638 -0.073 3 0.640 -0.087 0.023 4 0.639 -0.084 -0.004 0.043 5 0.639 -0.084 -0.005 0.048 -0.008 6 0.639 -0.085 -0.005 0.051 -0.027 0.028 7 0.640 -0.086 -0.003 0.051 -0.030 0.054 -0.039 8 0.634 -0.077 -0.008 0.059 -0.030 0.039 0.065 -0.163 9 0.629 -0.075 -0.007 0.058 -0.029 0.039 0.063 -0.143 -0.032 10 0.626 -0.087 -0.001 0.061 -0.031 0.044 0.062 -0.149 0.020 -0.083 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2376.91 2264.49 2265.11 2266.97 2268.48 2270.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2272.25 2273.85 2268.82 2270.55 2270.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.595 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 35.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 154.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.595 0.354 0.210 0.125 0.074 0.044 0.026 0.016 0.009 0.0055 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892161 1 0.022 -0.019 2 892162 1 0.205 0.453 3 892171 1 0.402 0.633 4 892172 1 0.339 0.581 5 892182 1 0.279 0.518 6 892183 1 0.316 0.559 7 892192 1 0.312 0.538 8 892193 1 0.445 0.663 9 892201 1 0.164 0.404 10 892202 1 0.243 0.460 11 892211 1 0.380 0.608 12 892212 1 0.392 0.626 13 892231 1 0.205 0.293 14 892232 1 0.483 0.689 15 892242 1 0.343 0.583 16 892243 1 0.391 0.624 17 892251 1 0.251 0.489 18 892261 1 0.290 0.533 19 892262 1 0.273 0.518 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892271 1 0.126 0.355 21 892272 1 0.196 0.436 22 892282 1 0.392 0.605 23 892283 1 0.393 0.621 24 892291 1 0.214 0.462 25 892292 1 0.412 0.614 26 892301 1 0.266 0.509 27 892302 1 0.224 0.473 28 892441 1 0.413 0.641 29 892442 1 0.285 0.532 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.299 0.517 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.140 MEDIAN 1 0.290 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.168 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.022 -0.019 LOWER HINGE 1 0.224 0.462 UPPER HINGE 1 0.392 0.614 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.483 0.689 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.338 0.898 3.377 0.381 -0.003 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.002 0.415 1.126 5.349 0.389 0.018 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.345 0.462 2.957 0.390 -0.026 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.321 0.448 3.519 0.357 0.018 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.418 0.438 3.612 0.484 0.068 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.411 0.728 4.825 0.473 0.031 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.362 0.614 3.366 0.423 -0.096 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.274 0.772 5.154 0.313 -0.068 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.276 0.861 3.424 0.306 0.010 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.273 0.305 3.637 0.328 -0.084 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.311 0.437 4.361 0.352 -0.080 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.001 0.374 0.565 3.880 0.391 -0.006 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.355 0.069 2.460 0.389 0.108 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.387 0.778 4.579 0.417 0.084 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.330 0.701 3.471 0.346 0.038 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.340 0.574 3.995 0.374 0.031 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.410 0.770 4.039 0.432 0.061 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.352 0.894 5.557 0.370 -0.056 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.321 0.553 3.110 0.363 -0.042 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.001 0.333 0.382 3.830 0.374 0.002 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.337 1.147 8.709 0.369 -0.038 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.295 1.407 11.795 0.312 -0.122 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.351 2.271 11.686 0.350 0.071 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.001 0.361 0.738 5.475 0.378 0.035 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.262 0.068 3.137 0.284 0.140 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.001 0.361 0.891 4.797 0.384 -0.050 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.342 0.538 4.429 0.398 -0.004 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.381 0.852 4.362 0.394 0.040 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.390 1.417 9.082 0.425 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.346 0.748 4.896 0.378 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.044 0.438 2.401 0.046 0.063 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.345 0.728 4.039 0.378 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.053 0.429 1.683 0.043 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.262 0.068 2.460 0.284 -0.122 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.321 0.462 3.471 0.352 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.374 0.891 5.154 0.394 0.038 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.002 0.418 2.271 11.795 0.484 0.140 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.380 0.124 0.006 -0.248 3.430 -0.018 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.018 SERIES 892192 AND 892292 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 892161 AND 892172 47 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.344 0.415 0.400 0.410 0.393 0.372 0.381 0.341 SDEV 0.174 0.132 0.147 0.157 0.149 0.199 0.211 0.192 SERR 0.071 0.022 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.013 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.835 0.922 0.938 0.947 0.944 0.937 0.938 0.922 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.991 0.223 0.486 3.615 0.238 0.102 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.251 0.111 0.117 107 155 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.63 1.00 1.09 1.71 6.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.101 0.025 -0.028 0.016 0.002 0.035 0.108 -0.036 -0.041 -0.023 PACF 0.101 0.014 -0.032 0.022 -0.001 0.033 0.103 -0.060 -0.035 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.102 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.018 -0.033 0.019 -0.003 0.024 0.109 -0.044 -0.036 -0.017 PACF -0.002 0.018 -0.033 0.019 -0.002 0.023 0.111 -0.045 -0.039 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.993 0.277 0.495 2.914 0.199 0.601 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.599 0.362 0.210 0.148 0.106 0.101 0.098 -0.003 -0.061 -0.096 PACF 0.599 0.006 -0.015 0.041 0.007 0.041 0.025 -0.133 -0.034 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.124 0.162 0.174 0.178 0.180 0.180 0.181 0.182 0.182 0.182 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.362 0.602 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.34 MINUTES