RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: russ044t.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: russ044t.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney DENSITY_LATE LASI - 892 2 Russia Siberian larch 120 6326-4333 1729 1990 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 892161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 892162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 892171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 5 GAPS / 1811 1813 / 1828 1842 / 1854 1854 / 1902 1919 / / 1949 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 892172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1814 1814 / 1836 1836 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 892182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 51 IN 4 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1876 1876 / 1880 1881 / 1909 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 892192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1893 1893 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892193 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 892202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1832 1832 / 1885 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 892211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1811 1835 / 1884 1890 / 1910 1910 / 1952 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 892212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 892232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 892242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1888 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 892243 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 110 IN 3 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1845 1848 / 1860 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1822 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 892261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1933 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 892262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1822 1822 / 1836 1836 / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1787 1790 / 1851 1878 / 1967 1968 / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 892282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 56 IN 3 GAPS / 1813 1813 / 1826 1844 / 1901 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 892291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 3 GAPS / 1785 1827 / 1842 1842 / 1866 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 892292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 892302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1846 1850 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 892442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1967 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 8.252 0.458 -0.378 2.850 0.060 0.129 2 892162 1815 1990 176 8.148 0.777 -1.101 5.102 0.080 0.402 3 892171 1789 1990 202 8.012 0.834 -1.111 4.378 0.088 0.404 4 892172 1789 1990 202 8.003 0.725 -0.963 3.859 0.088 0.255 5 892182 1831 1988 158 7.367 0.698 -0.802 3.652 0.098 0.115 6 892183 1841 1990 150 6.408 0.538 -1.252 8.178 0.072 0.365 7 892192 1827 1990 164 6.761 0.836 -0.312 2.966 0.100 0.512 8 892193 1794 1990 197 6.603 1.152 -0.692 3.307 0.124 0.658 9 892201 1918 1987 70 5.671 0.450 -0.042 3.347 0.078 0.309 10 892202 1774 1952 179 6.168 0.698 -0.351 2.975 0.082 0.590 11 892211 1766 1990 225 6.951 0.679 -0.993 4.926 0.072 0.561 12 892212 1818 1990 173 6.706 0.685 -1.112 6.041 0.084 0.416 13 892231 1843 1890 48 7.222 0.830 -0.862 3.730 0.116 0.212 14 892232 1804 1955 152 7.308 0.902 -0.871 4.150 0.109 0.395 15 892242 1795 1989 195 8.213 0.619 -0.558 3.604 0.069 0.328 16 892243 1757 1988 232 7.904 0.477 -0.086 3.661 0.058 0.225 17 892251 1790 1990 201 7.052 0.594 0.107 3.982 0.072 0.384 18 892261 1740 1990 251 7.526 0.669 -0.857 4.963 0.076 0.417 19 892262 1729 1990 262 7.344 0.604 -1.505 10.200 0.071 0.367 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 6.988 1.026 -0.470 2.860 0.111 0.584 21 892272 1743 1990 248 6.988 1.158 -0.585 3.068 0.114 0.613 22 892282 1776 1990 215 6.255 0.879 -0.476 2.921 0.106 0.580 23 892283 1795 1922 128 6.671 0.528 -0.320 2.926 0.080 0.222 24 892291 1750 1910 161 7.556 0.956 -1.000 5.333 0.090 0.570 25 892292 1776 1867 92 7.272 0.575 0.616 3.386 0.072 0.341 26 892301 1788 1990 203 7.055 0.819 0.602 3.591 0.102 0.384 27 892302 1807 1956 150 6.786 0.715 -1.484 12.866 0.098 0.177 28 892441 1847 1990 144 6.766 0.715 -1.224 6.129 0.080 0.543 29 892442 1839 1990 152 6.717 0.614 -0.009 2.329 0.077 0.451 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1729 TO 1990 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 7.127 0.731 -0.624 4.527 0.087 0.397 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.648 0.187 0.552 2.336 0.017 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 157 7.052 0.698 -0.692 3.661 0.082 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.809 0.231 0.680 1.895 0.028 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 46 5.671 0.450 -1.505 2.329 0.058 0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 6.717 0.604 -1.000 3.068 0.072 0.309 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 7.526 0.834 -0.320 4.963 0.100 0.543 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 8.252 1.158 0.616 12.866 0.124 0.658 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.395 0.170 0.009 -0.337 2.865 -0.126 0.787 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.126 SERIES 892183 AND 892193 150 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.787 SERIES 892172 AND 892201 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.213 0.480 0.452 0.475 0.471 0.442 0.424 0.478 SDEV 0.266 0.160 0.156 0.172 0.169 0.174 0.220 0.176 SERR 0.109 0.027 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.723 0.939 0.949 0.959 0.959 0.952 0.947 0.954 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 7.260 0.532 0.060 2.918 0.063 0.437 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.285 -0.170 2.034 40 222 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.38 1.00 1.05 1.43 32.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 173. 52. 47. 150. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.435 0.384 0.312 0.240 0.259 0.249 0.240 0.196 0.144 0.124 PACF 0.435 0.240 0.105 0.027 0.100 0.079 0.057 -0.002 -0.034 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.124 0.145 0.160 0.169 0.174 0.180 0.185 0.190 0.193 0.194 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.250 0.306 0.209 0.106 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01070080 8.50098133 2 892162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00659782 8.74202251 3 892171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00227167 7.82712841 4 892172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142107 8.12581921 5 892182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062727 7.44773149 6 892183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00485174 6.04169416 7 892192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00477522 7.15603590 8 892193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01514054 8.10773468 9 892201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00776765 5.94660854 10 892202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00363737 6.48634195 11 892211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365568 7.41352844 12 892212 1 0.68710846 0.02015353 0.00000000 6.51383352 13 892231 1 0.83705348 0.14315534 0.00000000 7.10848045 14 892232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00740938 7.87770033 15 892242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249532 7.93575525 16 892243 1 0.51884180 0.00542961 0.00000000 7.53107357 17 892251 1 0.73770612 0.04613101 0.00000000 6.97623158 18 892261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331528 7.93550682 19 892262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197732 7.08282185 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01505627 8.19874477 21 892272 1 5.20147514 0.00286986 0.00000000 3.25055552 22 892282 1 1.69028890 0.01248512 0.00000000 5.57417059 23 892283 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113976 6.74468613 24 892291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00397196 7.98717928 25 892292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157536 7.26346159 26 892301 1 0.87785769 0.02061329 0.00000000 6.85080910 27 892302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00381576 6.50537109 28 892441 1 1.07113910 0.04595334 0.00000000 6.60814667 29 892442 1 0.77408069 0.05233881 0.00000000 6.60969591 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.052 -0.412 2.816 0.059 0.021 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.087 -1.221 5.915 0.081 0.248 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.102 -0.827 3.972 0.085 0.456 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.091 -1.114 4.262 0.087 0.292 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.091 -0.623 3.599 0.096 0.120 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.078 -1.439 8.346 0.072 0.243 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.118 -0.318 2.785 0.102 0.454 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.124 -0.746 3.747 0.124 0.228 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.074 -0.305 3.762 0.077 0.192 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.105 -0.682 3.732 0.080 0.530 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.091 -0.878 4.984 0.072 0.459 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.098 -1.271 6.385 0.084 0.368 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.112 -0.999 3.828 0.114 0.151 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.117 -0.800 4.205 0.107 0.320 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.069 -0.745 4.075 0.067 0.234 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.056 0.007 3.929 0.056 0.180 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.080 -0.294 3.617 0.071 0.318 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.082 -1.064 5.713 0.077 0.310 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.080 -1.405 10.372 0.072 0.333 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.111 -0.460 2.991 0.111 0.233 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.127 -0.740 3.277 0.115 0.347 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.125 -0.133 3.106 0.102 0.479 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.079 -0.297 2.854 0.080 0.216 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.114 -0.747 4.912 0.089 0.486 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.077 0.340 3.074 0.069 0.330 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.111 0.306 2.847 0.102 0.330 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.102 -1.625 13.334 0.097 0.117 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.100 -1.420 6.801 0.080 0.489 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.089 0.061 2.300 0.076 0.429 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.095 -0.685 4.674 0.086 0.307 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.020 0.526 2.447 0.018 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.091 -0.745 3.828 0.081 0.318 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.031 0.759 1.879 0.030 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.052 -1.625 2.300 0.056 0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.080 -1.064 3.106 0.072 0.228 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.111 -0.305 4.984 0.102 0.429 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.127 0.340 13.334 0.124 0.530 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892162 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892171 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892172 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892182 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892183 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892201 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892202 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892211 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892212 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892231 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892232 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892242 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892243 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892251 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892261 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892262 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892272 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892282 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892283 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892292 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892301 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892302 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892441 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 892442 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.050 -0.459 2.809 0.059 -0.051 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.080 -1.344 6.052 0.081 0.107 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.099 -0.825 4.104 0.085 0.424 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.090 -1.099 4.229 0.087 0.261 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.087 -0.817 4.069 0.096 0.039 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.077 -1.434 8.356 0.072 0.222 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.105 -0.664 3.466 0.102 0.321 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.121 -0.635 3.712 0.124 0.176 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.071 -0.306 3.498 0.077 0.140 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.999 0.088 -0.466 3.650 0.079 0.357 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.084 -1.017 5.930 0.072 0.370 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.097 -1.392 6.800 0.084 0.347 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.106 -1.010 4.074 0.114 0.043 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.115 -0.824 4.290 0.107 0.299 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.066 -0.732 4.101 0.067 0.150 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.056 -0.031 3.848 0.056 0.164 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.075 -0.317 4.012 0.071 0.213 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.079 -1.186 6.307 0.077 0.251 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.080 -1.420 10.506 0.072 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.110 -0.471 3.013 0.111 0.215 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.124 -0.738 3.299 0.115 0.318 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.999 0.115 -0.398 3.340 0.102 0.393 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.077 -0.327 2.923 0.080 0.181 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.999 0.097 -0.203 3.830 0.090 0.314 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.074 0.315 3.008 0.069 0.279 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.110 0.311 2.881 0.102 0.317 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.100 -1.650 13.895 0.097 0.064 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.099 -1.320 6.530 0.080 0.472 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.083 -0.033 2.523 0.076 0.349 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.090 -0.707 4.795 0.086 0.243 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.019 0.527 2.523 0.018 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.088 -0.732 4.012 0.081 0.261 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.028 0.772 2.590 0.030 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.999 0.050 -1.650 2.523 0.056 -0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.077 -1.099 3.340 0.072 0.164 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.105 -0.327 5.930 0.102 0.325 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.124 0.315 13.895 0.124 0.472 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.427 0.132 0.007 -0.133 2.922 -0.030 0.759 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 892183 AND 892292 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.759 SERIES 892161 AND 892172 47 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.326 0.523 0.480 0.479 0.492 0.453 0.455 0.466 SDEV 0.140 0.149 0.143 0.161 0.153 0.166 0.199 0.181 SERR 0.057 0.025 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.010 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.823 0.948 0.954 0.959 0.962 0.954 0.953 0.952 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.004 0.059 -0.387 2.713 0.063 0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.092 -0.045 0.105 126 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.75 1.00 1.15 1.90 40.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.131 0.074 -0.004 -0.084 -0.043 0.002 0.018 0.000 -0.045 -0.120 PACF 0.131 0.057 -0.021 -0.087 -0.021 0.023 0.019 -0.014 -0.054 -0.109 95% C.L. 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 0.131 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.096 0.028 -0.006 -0.121 -0.043 -0.001 -0.006 0.025 -0.009 -0.116 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.096 2 0.094 0.020 3 0.094 0.021 -0.011 4 0.093 0.023 0.000 -0.121 5 0.090 0.023 0.001 -0.119 -0.021 6 0.090 0.024 0.001 -0.119 -0.022 0.011 7 0.090 0.024 0.000 -0.119 -0.022 0.012 -0.006 8 0.091 0.024 0.000 -0.118 -0.022 0.011 -0.008 0.012 9 0.091 0.024 0.001 -0.118 -0.024 0.011 -0.007 0.014 -0.020 10 0.088 0.026 0.000 -0.117 -0.027 -0.002 -0.007 0.017 -0.010 -0.117 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1574.28 1573.87 1575.77 1577.74 1575.89 1577.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1579.74 1581.73 1583.69 1585.58 1583.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.096 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 0.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 100.92 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.096 0.009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892161 1 0.004 -0.051 2 892162 1 0.012 0.108 3 892171 1 0.218 0.424 4 892172 1 0.099 0.262 5 892182 1 0.009 0.039 6 892183 1 0.050 0.222 7 892192 1 0.138 0.325 8 892193 1 0.041 0.176 9 892201 1 0.026 0.141 10 892202 1 0.133 0.358 11 892211 1 0.139 0.372 12 892212 1 0.121 0.348 13 892231 1 0.002 0.044 14 892232 1 0.090 0.299 15 892242 1 0.036 0.150 16 892243 1 0.030 0.171 17 892251 1 0.050 0.218 18 892261 1 0.063 0.251 19 892262 1 0.110 0.329 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892271 1 0.050 0.215 21 892272 1 0.115 0.318 22 892282 1 0.184 0.394 23 892283 1 0.035 0.183 24 892291 1 0.114 0.322 25 892292 1 0.082 0.285 26 892301 1 0.126 0.317 27 892302 1 0.016 0.065 28 892441 1 0.224 0.473 29 892442 1 0.125 0.351 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.084 0.245 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.127 MEDIAN 1 0.082 0.262 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.090 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 -0.051 LOWER HINGE 1 0.035 0.171 UPPER HINGE 1 0.125 0.329 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.224 0.473 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.050 -0.453 2.845 0.057 0.002 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.080 -1.449 6.381 0.085 -0.002 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.090 -0.603 3.625 0.106 -0.091 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.086 -0.971 3.800 0.101 -0.047 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.087 -0.850 4.095 0.098 -0.003 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.075 -1.530 9.562 0.080 0.003 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.099 -0.729 3.469 0.118 -0.057 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.119 -0.662 3.844 0.136 -0.018 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.070 -0.341 3.539 0.082 0.010 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.083 -0.507 3.789 0.093 -0.025 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.078 -1.132 6.721 0.085 -0.001 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.090 -1.430 7.094 0.098 0.000 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.106 -1.055 4.104 0.117 -0.002 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.110 -0.738 3.971 0.120 0.001 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.065 -0.805 4.086 0.073 -0.018 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.055 -0.096 4.123 0.060 0.002 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.073 -0.411 3.784 0.079 -0.015 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.076 -1.067 5.269 0.085 -0.001 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.075 -1.311 8.672 0.082 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.107 -0.509 2.949 0.124 -0.012 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.118 -0.664 3.299 0.135 -0.038 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.106 -0.361 2.930 0.121 -0.071 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.076 -0.296 3.027 0.087 -0.006 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.092 -0.208 3.440 0.102 -0.025 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.070 0.181 2.939 0.078 0.010 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.104 0.153 2.761 0.120 -0.053 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.100 -1.668 13.964 0.099 0.008 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.087 -0.801 3.785 0.097 -0.003 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.078 -0.027 2.363 0.089 -0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.086 -0.701 4.629 0.097 -0.017 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.018 0.495 2.510 0.021 0.025 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.086 -0.664 3.789 0.097 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.024 0.694 0.824 0.035 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.050 -1.668 2.363 0.057 -0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.075 -1.055 3.299 0.082 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.100 -0.361 4.123 0.117 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.119 0.181 13.964 0.136 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.468 0.117 0.006 -0.274 3.272 0.000 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.000 SERIES 892183 AND 892292 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 892291 AND 892292 92 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.438 0.566 0.507 0.510 0.537 0.497 0.491 0.505 SDEV 0.103 0.131 0.127 0.154 0.129 0.145 0.168 0.155 SERR 0.042 0.022 0.010 0.011 0.007 0.009 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.883 0.956 0.959 0.964 0.968 0.961 0.959 0.959 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.004 0.058 -0.570 3.040 0.070 -0.131 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.099 -0.043 0.097 130 132 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.79 1.00 1.09 1.87 10.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.131 0.030 0.013 -0.093 -0.021 0.014 0.015 0.006 -0.021 -0.092 PACF -0.131 0.013 0.019 -0.091 -0.046 0.009 0.022 0.002 -0.029 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.131 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.015 0.005 -0.097 -0.033 0.013 0.018 0.006 -0.034 -0.095 PACF 0.002 0.015 0.005 -0.097 -0.033 0.017 0.020 -0.004 -0.042 -0.095 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.004 0.058 -0.442 2.887 0.062 0.099 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.099 0.024 -0.002 -0.099 -0.040 0.011 0.019 0.003 -0.043 -0.100 PACF 0.099 0.015 -0.006 -0.100 -0.021 0.021 0.018 -0.011 -0.050 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 0.099 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES