RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: russ044w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: russ044w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney WIDTH_RING LASI - 892 2 Russia Siberian larch 120 6326-4333 1729 1990 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 892161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 892162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 892171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 5 GAPS / 1811 1813 / 1828 1842 / 1854 1854 / 1902 1919 / / 1949 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 892172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 892182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1909 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 892192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1893 1893 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892193 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 892202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1832 1832 / 1885 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 892211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1811 1835 / 1884 1890 / 1910 1910 / 1952 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 892212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 892232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 892242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1888 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 892243 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 108 IN 2 GAPS / 1845 1848 / 1861 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1822 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 892261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1933 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 892262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 4 GAPS / 1787 1790 / 1851 1878 / 1968 1968 / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 892282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 2 GAPS / 1826 1844 / 1901 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 892291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 52 IN 2 GAPS / 1785 1827 / 1866 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 892292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 892302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1846 1850 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 892442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1967 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.016 0.324 1.813 7.680 0.261 0.334 2 892162 1815 1990 176 0.745 0.287 0.396 2.911 0.309 0.472 3 892171 1789 1990 202 0.619 0.313 0.622 3.118 0.318 0.752 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.702 0.298 0.245 2.780 0.275 0.727 5 892182 1831 1988 158 0.675 0.325 0.424 2.904 0.383 0.632 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.039 0.469 0.533 3.502 0.329 0.628 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.318 0.837 0.807 2.718 0.241 0.866 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.845 0.462 1.277 4.413 0.248 0.841 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.875 0.270 0.291 2.884 0.178 0.736 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.834 0.326 1.373 5.053 0.234 0.713 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.805 0.304 0.153 2.850 0.266 0.610 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.748 0.323 0.352 2.828 0.277 0.710 13 892231 1843 1890 48 0.542 0.220 1.325 4.772 0.326 0.446 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.467 0.264 1.243 4.170 0.338 0.742 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.797 0.369 0.984 3.617 0.239 0.763 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.053 0.416 0.209 3.148 0.285 0.654 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.968 0.644 1.731 6.200 0.259 0.817 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.722 0.329 0.813 3.560 0.277 0.718 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.803 0.347 0.777 3.201 0.256 0.746 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.434 0.223 0.856 3.721 0.329 0.660 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.514 0.326 1.119 3.813 0.335 0.769 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.619 0.376 1.050 3.639 0.294 0.816 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.646 0.316 0.616 2.642 0.245 0.832 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.123 0.570 0.099 2.171 0.299 0.696 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.316 0.440 -0.116 2.804 0.202 0.773 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.770 0.368 0.793 3.650 0.281 0.734 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.872 0.393 0.862 3.467 0.260 0.730 28 892441 1847 1990 144 0.479 0.220 0.501 2.746 0.279 0.710 29 892442 1839 1990 152 0.546 0.320 1.145 4.193 0.269 0.794 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1729 TO 1990 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.789 0.368 0.769 3.626 0.279 0.704 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.234 0.132 0.486 1.154 0.044 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 158 0.770 0.326 0.793 3.467 0.277 0.730 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.255 0.089 0.723 0.964 0.053 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.434 0.220 -0.116 2.171 0.178 0.334 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.619 0.304 0.396 2.850 0.256 0.660 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.875 0.393 1.119 3.813 0.309 0.769 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 1.318 0.837 1.813 7.680 0.383 0.866 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.469 0.248 0.012 -0.948 3.411 -0.366 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.366 SERIES 892172 AND 892192 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 892171 AND 892172 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.313 0.649 0.547 0.555 0.345 0.420 0.464 0.509 SDEV 0.397 0.125 0.150 0.166 0.233 0.220 0.233 0.207 SERR 0.162 0.021 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.815 0.969 0.965 0.970 0.932 0.947 0.955 0.959 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.791 0.283 0.731 3.344 0.210 0.736 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.407 0.214 0.140 102 160 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 0.89 1.00 1.16 2.05 7.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 173. 52. 47. 150. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.733 0.565 0.441 0.369 0.333 0.322 0.361 0.384 0.362 0.316 PACF 0.733 0.061 0.016 0.056 0.068 0.072 0.152 0.078 -0.009 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.124 0.178 0.204 0.218 0.227 0.234 0.241 0.249 0.258 0.266 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.567 0.752 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 1 0.64816147 0.05425677 0.00000000 0.77881551 2 892162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001841 0.75325954 3 892171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291993 0.34818661 4 892172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264706 0.45064822 5 892182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129903 0.61418003 6 892183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017583 1.05220854 7 892192 1 2.91900325 0.01304129 0.00000000 0.11851110 8 892193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00543567 1.38558567 9 892201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00701846 0.62541616 10 892202 1 0.51991159 0.01428126 0.00000000 0.65277481 11 892211 1 0.09361924 0.00533790 0.00000000 0.76834685 12 892212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00116215 0.65183598 13 892231 1 1.43650818 0.59803301 0.00000000 0.50572997 14 892232 1 0.51738632 0.01711343 0.00000000 0.28278145 15 892242 1 0.69367582 0.02372979 0.00000000 0.64766288 16 892243 1 0.69173193 0.01085173 0.00000000 0.61088336 17 892251 1 2.13177657 0.02240014 0.00000000 0.51291829 18 892261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00169418 0.92490387 19 892262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179834 1.03889823 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00302715 0.68010992 21 892272 1 0.98952174 0.01323268 0.00000000 0.22653107 22 892282 1 1.26961148 0.00886887 0.00000000 0.04725409 23 892283 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00618846 1.04532731 24 892291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00714760 1.73128080 25 892292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00737212 1.63980150 26 892301 1 0.98875266 0.01315618 0.00000000 0.42802620 27 892302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00554090 1.30666161 28 892441 1 0.58001071 0.07640024 0.00000000 0.42794994 29 892442 1 1.06419897 0.03718834 0.00000000 0.35486749 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.267 0.951 4.468 0.255 0.136 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.387 0.390 2.877 0.305 0.493 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.007 0.458 0.414 3.045 0.318 0.704 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.407 0.407 3.292 0.273 0.726 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.457 0.379 2.853 0.367 0.613 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.451 0.534 3.522 0.326 0.625 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.001 0.348 0.590 3.517 0.242 0.600 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.008 0.389 1.019 3.878 0.249 0.683 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.999 0.269 0.627 3.314 0.175 0.647 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.327 0.860 3.790 0.227 0.603 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.365 0.120 3.004 0.264 0.606 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.419 0.200 2.467 0.275 0.685 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.340 0.763 3.352 0.317 0.310 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.474 0.983 3.459 0.339 0.656 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.999 0.361 0.457 2.859 0.239 0.661 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.407 0.645 3.714 0.278 0.691 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.999 0.348 0.795 3.715 0.256 0.535 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.997 0.390 0.596 3.391 0.269 0.651 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.998 0.374 0.409 2.900 0.255 0.658 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.994 0.360 0.567 3.875 0.325 0.443 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.998 0.382 0.613 4.896 0.335 0.433 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.011 0.460 0.642 3.248 0.275 0.750 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.002 0.341 0.808 4.437 0.243 0.654 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.991 0.385 0.566 3.349 0.270 0.529 25 892292 1776 1867 92 0.999 0.300 0.306 3.403 0.191 0.711 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.356 0.273 3.011 0.279 0.550 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.001 0.336 0.010 2.553 0.251 0.605 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.429 0.682 3.465 0.277 0.681 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.430 0.860 3.891 0.276 0.678 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.380 0.568 3.433 0.274 0.597 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.004 0.055 0.256 0.557 0.043 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.382 0.590 3.391 0.273 0.647 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.001 0.071 0.356 0.704 0.054 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.991 0.267 0.010 2.467 0.175 0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.999 0.348 0.407 3.011 0.251 0.550 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.419 0.763 3.715 0.305 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.011 0.474 1.019 4.896 0.367 0.750 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892162 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892171 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892172 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892182 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892183 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892201 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892202 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892211 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892212 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892231 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892232 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892242 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892243 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892251 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892261 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892262 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892272 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892282 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892283 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892292 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892301 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892302 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892441 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 892442 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 0.999 0.257 0.855 4.174 0.254 0.095 2 892162 1815 1990 176 0.998 0.376 0.472 2.973 0.305 0.458 3 892171 1789 1990 202 0.993 0.410 0.086 2.552 0.318 0.625 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.995 0.377 0.200 2.982 0.273 0.673 5 892182 1831 1988 158 0.995 0.441 0.293 2.677 0.367 0.575 6 892183 1841 1990 150 0.994 0.425 0.309 3.065 0.326 0.606 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.998 0.337 0.471 3.355 0.242 0.581 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.994 0.342 0.694 3.281 0.248 0.610 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.997 0.252 1.086 5.041 0.174 0.585 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.998 0.313 0.715 3.514 0.227 0.586 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.996 0.341 -0.139 2.636 0.264 0.561 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.995 0.401 0.278 2.915 0.275 0.658 13 892231 1843 1890 48 0.997 0.302 0.154 2.474 0.318 0.207 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.993 0.440 0.994 3.965 0.339 0.622 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.994 0.316 0.292 2.786 0.240 0.569 16 892243 1757 1988 232 0.991 0.345 0.351 3.720 0.278 0.599 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.998 0.342 0.819 3.778 0.256 0.516 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.998 0.368 0.415 3.016 0.269 0.613 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.996 0.352 0.358 3.080 0.255 0.603 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.997 0.338 0.355 3.581 0.325 0.379 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.996 0.363 0.463 4.274 0.335 0.384 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.987 0.366 0.244 2.999 0.275 0.670 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.996 0.312 0.604 4.191 0.243 0.608 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.995 0.348 0.503 3.593 0.270 0.482 25 892292 1776 1867 92 0.996 0.274 -0.049 3.165 0.191 0.659 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.999 0.352 0.270 3.042 0.279 0.541 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.994 0.305 -0.036 2.997 0.250 0.530 28 892441 1847 1990 144 0.998 0.419 0.620 3.410 0.277 0.670 29 892442 1839 1990 152 0.996 0.390 0.618 3.481 0.276 0.618 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.996 0.352 0.424 3.335 0.274 0.548 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.003 0.050 0.300 0.590 0.043 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.996 0.348 0.358 3.165 0.273 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.003 0.062 0.349 0.611 0.054 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.987 0.252 -0.139 2.474 0.174 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.994 0.316 0.270 2.982 0.250 0.530 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 0.998 0.377 0.618 3.593 0.305 0.618 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.441 1.086 5.041 0.367 0.673 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.477 0.134 0.007 -0.590 4.256 -0.081 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 892192 AND 892232 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 892171 AND 892172 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.509 0.657 0.587 0.504 0.398 0.453 0.498 0.542 SDEV 0.222 0.115 0.129 0.167 0.215 0.221 0.190 0.171 SERR 0.091 0.019 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.909 0.970 0.970 0.963 0.945 0.954 0.960 0.964 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.995 0.283 0.337 2.884 0.211 0.605 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.107 0.035 0.201 78 184 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.36 1.00 1.07 1.42 22.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.602 0.349 0.202 0.091 0.029 -0.005 0.036 0.033 -0.031 -0.103 PACF 0.602 -0.021 0.000 -0.039 -0.012 -0.012 0.082 -0.022 -0.089 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.124 0.162 0.173 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.379 0.615 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.582 0.325 0.231 0.126 0.086 0.018 -0.009 -0.078 -0.148 -0.220 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.582 2 0.594 -0.021 3 0.595 -0.066 0.076 4 0.599 -0.069 0.108 -0.053 5 0.601 -0.073 0.110 -0.073 0.034 6 0.604 -0.078 0.118 -0.078 0.076 -0.070 7 0.604 -0.079 0.119 -0.079 0.076 -0.075 0.009 8 0.605 -0.087 0.127 -0.087 0.089 -0.084 0.073 -0.106 9 0.597 -0.081 0.120 -0.081 0.082 -0.074 0.066 -0.060 -0.077 10 0.587 -0.089 0.129 -0.090 0.093 -0.084 0.082 -0.070 0.001 -0.131 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2325.91 2219.63 2221.52 2221.98 2223.26 2224.96 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2225.68 2227.66 2226.67 2227.10 2224.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.582 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 33.85 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 151.17 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.582 0.339 0.197 0.115 0.067 0.039 0.023 0.013 0.008 0.0044 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892161 1 0.051 0.097 2 892162 1 0.216 0.465 3 892171 1 0.394 0.628 4 892172 1 0.461 0.676 5 892182 1 0.345 0.577 6 892183 1 0.378 0.613 7 892192 1 0.341 0.582 8 892193 1 0.385 0.612 9 892201 1 0.374 0.589 10 892202 1 0.377 0.594 11 892211 1 0.323 0.564 12 892212 1 0.438 0.659 13 892231 1 0.086 0.210 14 892232 1 0.392 0.623 15 892242 1 0.333 0.574 16 892243 1 0.360 0.599 17 892251 1 0.273 0.518 18 892261 1 0.391 0.624 19 892262 1 0.383 0.618 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892271 1 0.148 0.381 21 892272 1 0.161 0.385 22 892282 1 0.463 0.671 23 892283 1 0.382 0.617 24 892291 1 0.234 0.483 25 892292 1 0.438 0.662 26 892301 1 0.312 0.543 27 892302 1 0.288 0.536 28 892441 1 0.451 0.672 29 892442 1 0.384 0.619 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.330 0.551 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.109 0.134 MEDIAN 1 0.374 0.594 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.103 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.051 0.097 LOWER HINGE 1 0.288 0.536 UPPER HINGE 1 0.391 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.463 0.676 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.256 0.795 4.038 0.266 0.020 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.001 0.329 0.366 4.177 0.344 0.010 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.319 0.105 2.500 0.381 -0.010 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.278 0.349 3.202 0.307 0.053 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.360 0.205 2.945 0.418 0.080 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.334 0.156 3.640 0.397 0.029 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.274 0.235 3.521 0.315 -0.033 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.271 0.556 3.922 0.321 -0.083 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.203 1.210 6.022 0.213 0.116 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.251 0.016 3.839 0.299 -0.106 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.281 0.179 3.665 0.321 -0.051 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.301 0.253 3.299 0.354 -0.046 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.295 0.248 2.698 0.329 0.046 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.344 0.367 3.080 0.425 -0.047 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.258 0.367 3.054 0.281 0.040 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.276 0.106 3.605 0.323 0.017 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.292 0.368 3.791 0.317 0.042 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.286 0.058 3.060 0.330 -0.044 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.275 0.182 3.074 0.315 -0.036 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.312 0.113 3.595 0.379 -0.022 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.335 0.504 4.556 0.381 -0.046 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.272 -0.178 3.244 0.337 -0.099 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.245 0.158 3.674 0.293 -0.012 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.001 0.301 0.175 4.833 0.324 0.000 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.206 0.318 3.867 0.240 0.013 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.296 0.262 3.804 0.353 -0.085 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.257 0.017 3.503 0.300 -0.026 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.310 0.448 3.675 0.344 -0.005 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.306 0.703 5.249 0.345 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.287 0.298 3.694 0.329 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.037 0.270 0.746 0.048 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.286 0.248 3.640 0.324 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.039 0.212 0.664 0.046 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.203 -0.178 2.500 0.213 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.271 0.156 3.202 0.307 -0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.310 0.367 3.867 0.353 0.020 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.001 0.360 1.210 6.022 0.425 0.116 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.463 0.129 0.006 -0.707 4.000 -0.030 0.763 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 892192 AND 892232 129 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.763 SERIES 892171 AND 892172 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.472 0.497 0.467 0.504 0.464 0.431 0.443 0.488 SDEV 0.158 0.122 0.154 0.147 0.160 0.216 0.207 0.151 SERR 0.064 0.020 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.014 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.896 0.943 0.952 0.963 0.957 0.950 0.951 0.956 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.996 0.212 0.149 3.128 0.237 0.065 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.183 0.064 0.118 111 151 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.36 1.00 1.07 1.43 9.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.064 0.025 0.036 -0.026 -0.004 -0.058 0.051 0.052 -0.005 -0.090 PACF 0.064 0.021 0.033 -0.031 -0.002 -0.058 0.061 0.048 -0.009 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.019 0.036 -0.029 0.002 -0.062 0.051 0.050 -0.002 -0.089 PACF -0.002 0.019 0.036 -0.029 0.000 -0.062 0.053 0.052 0.001 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.999 0.265 0.268 2.727 0.198 0.590 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.588 0.357 0.215 0.102 0.047 0.012 0.048 0.031 -0.040 -0.118 PACF 0.588 0.017 -0.002 -0.042 0.001 -0.011 0.079 -0.033 -0.094 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.124 0.161 0.172 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.356 0.597 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES