RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: russ044x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: russ044x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney DENSITY_MAXIMUM LASI - 892 2 Russia Siberian larch 120 6326-4333 1729 1990 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 892161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1990 1990 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 892162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1846 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 892171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 5 GAPS / 1811 1813 / 1828 1842 / 1854 1854 / 1902 1919 / / 1949 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 892172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1949 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 892182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 48 IN 2 GAPS / 1864 1864 / 1909 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 892192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1893 1893 / 1927 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892193 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 892202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1832 1832 / 1885 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 892211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 4 GAPS / 1811 1835 / 1884 1890 / 1910 1910 / 1952 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 892212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 892232 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1851 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 892242 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1888 / 1954 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 892243 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 108 IN 2 GAPS / 1845 1848 / 1861 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1822 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 892261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 2 GAPS / 1869 1870 / 1933 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 892262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892271 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1836 1836 / 1865 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 34 IN 4 GAPS / 1787 1790 / 1851 1878 / 1968 1968 / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 892282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 55 IN 2 GAPS / 1826 1844 / 1901 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 892291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 52 IN 2 GAPS / 1785 1827 / 1866 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 892292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1828 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 892302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1846 1850 / 1922 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 892442 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1967 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 0.898 0.047 -0.572 3.320 0.058 0.042 2 892162 1815 1990 176 0.885 0.080 -1.487 7.127 0.077 0.341 3 892171 1789 1990 202 0.873 0.096 -1.583 6.036 0.090 0.451 4 892172 1789 1990 202 0.872 0.079 -1.358 5.562 0.083 0.353 5 892182 1831 1988 158 0.797 0.084 -1.249 4.390 0.101 0.213 6 892183 1841 1990 150 0.703 0.063 -2.452 18.355 0.076 0.287 7 892192 1827 1990 164 0.747 0.087 -0.342 3.027 0.098 0.472 8 892193 1794 1990 197 0.732 0.121 -0.872 3.698 0.117 0.640 9 892201 1918 1987 70 0.635 0.048 -0.272 3.800 0.078 0.240 10 892202 1774 1952 179 0.684 0.074 -0.224 2.919 0.086 0.507 11 892211 1766 1990 225 0.763 0.068 -1.078 5.608 0.071 0.490 12 892212 1818 1990 173 0.735 0.071 -1.343 6.992 0.075 0.468 13 892231 1843 1890 48 0.792 0.089 -0.918 3.722 0.116 0.123 14 892232 1804 1955 152 0.802 0.097 -1.099 4.866 0.108 0.375 15 892242 1795 1989 195 0.895 0.065 -0.505 3.604 0.068 0.321 16 892243 1757 1988 232 0.858 0.055 -0.768 5.631 0.059 0.212 17 892251 1790 1990 201 0.771 0.065 0.013 3.760 0.069 0.451 18 892261 1740 1990 251 0.821 0.071 -1.028 5.811 0.073 0.391 19 892262 1729 1990 262 0.804 0.066 -2.072 15.896 0.073 0.315 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 0.764 0.114 -0.492 2.967 0.118 0.510 21 892272 1743 1990 248 0.767 0.126 -0.778 3.534 0.118 0.568 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.691 0.096 -0.704 3.337 0.104 0.572 23 892283 1795 1922 128 0.726 0.056 -0.234 3.365 0.079 0.168 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.840 0.116 -1.118 4.984 0.107 0.497 25 892292 1776 1867 92 0.805 0.077 0.822 3.615 0.084 0.319 26 892301 1788 1990 203 0.785 0.098 0.223 2.976 0.115 0.328 27 892302 1807 1956 150 0.754 0.081 0.320 2.661 0.100 0.290 28 892441 1847 1990 144 0.747 0.088 -1.325 5.995 0.091 0.529 29 892442 1839 1990 152 0.736 0.080 0.045 2.224 0.089 0.464 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 29 FROM 1729 TO 1990 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.782 0.081 -0.774 5.165 0.089 0.377 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.067 0.021 0.720 3.582 0.018 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 158 0.771 0.080 -0.778 3.760 0.086 0.375 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.085 0.030 0.977 2.295 0.029 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.635 0.047 -2.452 2.224 0.058 0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.736 0.066 -1.249 3.337 0.075 0.290 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.821 0.096 -0.272 5.631 0.104 0.490 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 0.898 0.126 0.822 18.355 0.118 0.640 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.402 0.167 0.008 -0.387 3.100 -0.228 0.790 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.228 SERIES 892183 AND 892292 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.790 SERIES 892172 AND 892201 70 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.234 0.510 0.464 0.514 0.467 0.432 0.421 0.474 SDEV 0.254 0.170 0.152 0.160 0.182 0.184 0.217 0.185 SERR 0.104 0.028 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.746 0.945 0.951 0.965 0.958 0.950 0.947 0.953 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 0.797 0.057 -0.010 2.895 0.064 0.387 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.271 -0.169 0.220 42 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.29 1.01 1.05 1.34 31.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 173. 52. 47. 150. 202. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.385 0.350 0.290 0.216 0.245 0.241 0.233 0.217 0.171 0.138 PACF 0.385 0.237 0.119 0.028 0.103 0.090 0.066 0.039 -0.007 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.124 0.141 0.153 0.162 0.166 0.171 0.176 0.181 0.185 0.187 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.211 0.267 0.204 0.119 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079104 0.91654199 2 892162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063651 0.94264978 3 892171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031965 0.84589374 4 892172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010425 0.88164186 5 892182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001510 0.80078429 6 892183 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048756 0.66625595 7 892192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044108 0.78374726 8 892193 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154625 0.88556564 9 892201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076826 0.66227329 10 892202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040383 0.71967161 11 892211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031178 0.80244911 12 892212 1 0.07869165 0.03112350 0.00000000 0.72070789 13 892231 1 0.09568942 0.14733638 0.00000000 0.77932757 14 892232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072612 0.85741323 15 892242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033407 0.85893065 16 892243 1 0.04752976 0.01336574 0.00000000 0.83265585 17 892251 1 0.11033553 0.05319354 0.00000000 0.76125008 18 892261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032053 0.86060971 19 892262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018058 0.78004354 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157446 0.89025432 21 892272 1 0.47044730 0.00348250 0.00000000 0.45048431 22 892282 1 0.17611144 0.01317444 0.00000000 0.62137944 23 892283 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012701 0.73389518 24 892291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052515 0.89529598 25 892292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018773 0.80307263 26 892301 1 0.07678533 0.02139259 0.00000000 0.76780903 27 892302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041913 0.72460788 28 892441 1 0.12412289 0.04911977 0.00000000 0.72997743 29 892442 1 0.10097070 0.05639474 0.00000000 0.72280687 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.050 -0.523 3.299 0.057 -0.024 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.083 -1.641 8.123 0.078 0.198 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.107 -1.213 5.376 0.089 0.486 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.089 -1.428 5.843 0.081 0.347 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.102 -0.967 4.179 0.101 0.203 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.086 -2.694 19.390 0.075 0.192 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.112 -0.379 2.853 0.099 0.423 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.122 -0.913 4.116 0.117 0.239 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.072 -0.579 4.522 0.077 0.132 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.099 -0.548 3.391 0.083 0.438 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.085 -0.978 5.397 0.072 0.395 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.092 -1.508 7.436 0.076 0.415 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.109 -1.105 3.860 0.114 0.054 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.116 -1.006 4.747 0.106 0.321 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.065 -0.762 4.187 0.066 0.200 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.062 -0.445 4.664 0.059 0.212 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.078 -0.449 3.596 0.068 0.355 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.080 -1.356 7.209 0.074 0.295 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.081 -1.996 16.054 0.073 0.289 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.117 -0.589 3.267 0.119 0.168 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.132 -0.869 3.754 0.119 0.340 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.127 -0.379 3.166 0.101 0.486 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.077 -0.247 3.240 0.079 0.161 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.125 -0.812 4.531 0.105 0.421 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.091 0.538 3.305 0.082 0.285 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.122 0.011 2.561 0.114 0.296 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.103 0.130 2.334 0.100 0.232 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.113 -1.408 6.569 0.091 0.485 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.105 0.092 2.016 0.088 0.448 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.097 -0.828 5.275 0.088 0.293 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.021 0.679 3.794 0.018 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.099 -0.812 4.179 0.083 0.295 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.032 0.768 2.098 0.025 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.050 -2.694 2.016 0.057 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.081 -1.213 3.299 0.075 0.200 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.113 -0.445 5.397 0.101 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.132 0.538 19.390 0.119 0.486 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892161 -67 31 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892162 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892171 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892172 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892182 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892183 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892192 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892193 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892201 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892202 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892211 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892212 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892231 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892232 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892242 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892243 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892251 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892261 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892262 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892271 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892272 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892282 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892283 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892291 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892292 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892301 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892302 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892441 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 892442 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.049 -0.498 3.265 0.057 -0.087 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.078 -1.774 8.500 0.078 0.054 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.105 -1.225 5.544 0.089 0.457 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.087 -1.419 5.819 0.081 0.312 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.099 -1.151 4.454 0.101 0.154 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.086 -2.669 19.248 0.075 0.178 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.100 -0.656 3.432 0.099 0.294 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.118 -0.786 4.024 0.117 0.182 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.069 -0.476 4.237 0.077 0.061 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.088 -0.385 3.485 0.083 0.293 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.081 -1.104 6.276 0.072 0.335 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.091 -1.608 7.817 0.076 0.402 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.103 -1.066 4.080 0.113 -0.078 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.115 -1.021 4.791 0.106 0.307 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.063 -0.760 4.196 0.066 0.129 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.061 -0.507 4.574 0.059 0.196 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.073 -0.494 3.936 0.068 0.245 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.078 -1.499 8.155 0.074 0.251 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.081 -2.028 16.360 0.073 0.279 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.116 -0.596 3.327 0.119 0.151 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.130 -0.862 3.780 0.119 0.315 22 892282 1776 1990 215 0.999 0.117 -0.641 3.699 0.101 0.406 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.075 -0.296 3.319 0.079 0.119 24 892291 1750 1910 161 0.999 0.111 -0.404 3.750 0.106 0.284 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.088 0.483 3.208 0.082 0.235 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.120 0.056 2.632 0.114 0.279 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.099 0.169 2.388 0.100 0.165 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.111 -1.307 6.349 0.091 0.468 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.097 0.011 2.162 0.088 0.354 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.093 -0.845 5.407 0.088 0.232 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.020 0.687 3.819 0.018 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.091 -0.760 4.080 0.083 0.251 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.033 0.749 2.387 0.026 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.999 0.049 -2.669 2.162 0.057 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.078 -1.225 3.432 0.075 0.154 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.111 -0.476 5.819 0.101 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.130 0.483 19.248 0.119 0.468 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.433 0.135 0.007 -0.361 3.856 -0.227 0.755 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.227 SERIES 892183 AND 892292 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.755 SERIES 892161 AND 892172 47 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.333 0.550 0.491 0.518 0.486 0.445 0.450 0.470 SDEV 0.148 0.158 0.138 0.153 0.170 0.177 0.198 0.186 SERR 0.060 0.026 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.828 0.953 0.956 0.965 0.961 0.952 0.952 0.953 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.005 0.059 -0.456 2.834 0.063 0.115 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.103 -0.049 0.109 138 124 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.86 1.00 1.10 1.96 6.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.056 -0.005 -0.089 -0.049 -0.001 0.011 0.018 -0.023 -0.108 PACF 0.114 0.043 -0.016 -0.090 -0.030 0.017 0.013 0.007 -0.035 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 0.114 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.079 0.027 0.004 -0.112 -0.041 0.007 -0.019 0.029 -0.005 -0.126 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.079 2 0.078 0.021 3 0.078 0.021 0.000 4 0.078 0.024 0.009 -0.114 5 0.075 0.024 0.009 -0.112 -0.024 6 0.075 0.026 0.009 -0.112 -0.026 0.018 7 0.076 0.025 0.007 -0.112 -0.025 0.020 -0.019 8 0.076 0.025 0.007 -0.110 -0.025 0.019 -0.020 0.019 9 0.076 0.025 0.008 -0.110 -0.027 0.019 -0.020 0.020 -0.015 10 0.075 0.027 0.005 -0.108 -0.030 0.005 -0.019 0.023 -0.006 -0.126 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1589.55 1589.89 1591.77 1593.77 1592.36 1594.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1596.12 1598.03 1599.93 1601.87 1599.66 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892161 0 0.008 2 892162 0 0.003 3 892171 0 0.210 4 892172 0 0.098 5 892182 0 0.024 6 892183 0 0.032 7 892192 0 0.089 8 892193 0 0.033 9 892201 0 0.004 10 892202 0 0.086 11 892211 0 0.113 12 892212 0 0.163 13 892231 0 0.006 14 892232 0 0.095 15 892242 0 0.017 16 892243 0 0.040 17 892251 0 0.063 18 892261 0 0.063 19 892262 0 0.080 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892271 0 0.023 21 892272 0 0.100 22 892282 0 0.165 23 892283 0 0.015 24 892291 0 0.085 25 892292 0 0.057 26 892301 0 0.078 27 892302 0 0.028 28 892441 0 0.219 29 892442 0 0.127 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.073 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.060 MEDIAN 0 0.063 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.003 LOWER HINGE 0 0.024 UPPER HINGE 0 0.098 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.219 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892161 1944 1990 47 1.000 0.049 -0.498 3.265 0.057 -0.087 2 892162 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.078 -1.774 8.500 0.078 0.054 3 892171 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.105 -1.225 5.544 0.088 0.457 4 892172 1789 1990 202 1.000 0.087 -1.419 5.819 0.081 0.312 5 892182 1831 1988 158 1.000 0.099 -1.151 4.454 0.101 0.154 6 892183 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.086 -2.669 19.248 0.075 0.178 7 892192 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.100 -0.656 3.432 0.099 0.294 8 892193 1794 1990 197 1.000 0.118 -0.786 4.024 0.117 0.182 9 892201 1918 1987 70 1.000 0.069 -0.476 4.237 0.077 0.061 10 892202 1774 1952 179 1.000 0.088 -0.385 3.485 0.083 0.293 11 892211 1766 1990 225 1.000 0.081 -1.104 6.276 0.072 0.335 12 892212 1818 1990 173 1.000 0.091 -1.608 7.817 0.076 0.402 13 892231 1843 1890 48 1.000 0.103 -1.066 4.080 0.113 -0.078 14 892232 1804 1955 152 1.000 0.115 -1.021 4.791 0.106 0.307 15 892242 1795 1989 195 1.000 0.063 -0.760 4.196 0.066 0.129 16 892243 1757 1988 232 1.000 0.061 -0.507 4.574 0.059 0.196 17 892251 1790 1990 201 1.000 0.073 -0.494 3.936 0.068 0.245 18 892261 1740 1990 251 1.000 0.078 -1.500 8.155 0.074 0.251 19 892262 1729 1990 262 1.000 0.081 -2.028 16.360 0.073 0.279 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892271 1795 1955 161 1.000 0.116 -0.596 3.327 0.119 0.151 21 892272 1743 1990 248 1.000 0.130 -0.862 3.780 0.119 0.315 22 892282 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.117 -0.641 3.699 0.101 0.406 23 892283 1795 1922 128 1.000 0.075 -0.296 3.319 0.079 0.119 24 892291 1750 1910 161 1.000 0.111 -0.404 3.750 0.106 0.284 25 892292 1776 1867 92 1.000 0.088 0.483 3.208 0.082 0.235 26 892301 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.120 0.056 2.632 0.114 0.279 27 892302 1807 1956 150 1.000 0.099 0.169 2.388 0.100 0.165 28 892441 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.111 -1.307 6.349 0.091 0.468 29 892442 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.097 0.011 2.162 0.088 0.354 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 1.000 0.093 -0.845 5.407 0.088 0.232 STANDARD DEVIATION 55 0.000 0.020 0.687 3.819 0.018 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.091 -0.760 4.080 0.083 0.251 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.000 0.033 0.749 2.387 0.025 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.049 -2.669 2.162 0.057 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.078 -1.225 3.432 0.075 0.154 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 202 1.000 0.111 -0.476 5.819 0.101 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.130 0.483 19.248 0.119 0.468 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 394 0.433 0.135 0.007 -0.361 3.856 -0.227 0.755 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.227 SERIES 892183 AND 892292 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.755 SERIES 892161 AND 892172 47 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.04 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 6. 36. 153. 210. 300. 253. 231. 190. RBAR 0.333 0.550 0.491 0.518 0.486 0.445 0.450 0.470 SDEV 0.148 0.158 0.138 0.153 0.170 0.177 0.198 0.186 SERR 0.060 0.026 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.828 0.953 0.956 0.965 0.961 0.952 0.952 0.953 NSS 9.6 16.7 22.5 25.7 26.0 24.9 24.4 22.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.006 0.059 -0.456 2.835 0.063 0.115 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.102 -0.049 0.108 137 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.86 1.00 1.10 1.96 6.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.055 -0.004 -0.089 -0.050 -0.001 0.011 0.018 -0.023 -0.108 PACF 0.114 0.043 -0.015 -0.091 -0.030 0.017 0.013 0.007 -0.035 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 0.115 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1729 1990 262 1.006 0.059 -0.456 2.835 0.063 0.115 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.055 -0.004 -0.089 -0.050 -0.001 0.011 0.018 -0.023 -0.108 PACF 0.114 0.043 -0.015 -0.091 -0.030 0.017 0.013 0.007 -0.035 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.015 0.115 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES