RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS045E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS045E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 892 1 Voroney WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 892 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 120 6326-4333 1723 1991 - 892 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 892331 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1964 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 892352 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 892381 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 892401 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 70 IN 1 GAPS / 1888 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 892412 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 892421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1843 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 892431 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 892452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1796 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892321 1914 1991 78 1.786 0.968 0.784 2.615 0.208 0.881 2 892322 1931 1991 61 1.681 0.937 0.595 2.369 0.233 0.883 3 892331 1939 1991 53 1.065 0.286 0.714 3.105 0.184 0.645 4 892332 1925 1991 67 1.333 0.436 0.593 2.935 0.149 0.809 5 892341 1805 1991 187 0.484 0.204 1.197 5.718 0.213 0.793 6 892342 1842 1991 150 0.427 0.161 0.464 2.856 0.227 0.723 7 892351 1803 1991 189 0.586 0.228 0.953 4.501 0.218 0.691 8 892352 1818 1991 174 0.562 0.205 0.861 3.967 0.223 0.643 9 892361 1920 1988 69 1.439 0.870 0.793 2.414 0.208 0.912 10 892362 1914 1991 78 1.177 0.544 0.601 2.313 0.179 0.850 11 892371 1837 1991 155 0.750 0.269 0.972 4.322 0.194 0.785 12 892372 1886 1991 106 0.759 0.315 0.393 2.327 0.199 0.851 13 892381 1919 1991 73 1.399 0.447 -0.048 2.362 0.176 0.812 14 892382 1934 1991 58 1.399 0.449 0.159 2.202 0.188 0.736 15 892391 1825 1991 167 0.472 0.127 0.590 3.601 0.187 0.618 16 892392 1831 1991 161 0.391 0.154 0.110 2.657 0.204 0.775 17 892401 1740 1991 252 0.607 0.433 0.637 2.477 0.254 0.922 18 892402 1748 1934 187 0.569 0.344 0.624 2.362 0.246 0.904 19 892411 1723 1991 269 0.446 0.396 2.156 9.373 0.269 0.888 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892412 1746 1990 245 0.498 0.338 0.967 3.264 0.265 0.908 21 892421 1798 1991 194 0.548 0.263 1.057 3.161 0.208 0.836 22 892422 1755 1991 237 0.494 0.234 0.736 2.672 0.221 0.854 23 892431 1829 1991 163 0.516 0.256 1.152 5.063 0.254 0.765 24 892432 1810 1990 181 0.474 0.178 0.099 2.961 0.232 0.747 25 892451 1758 1991 234 0.329 0.220 0.984 3.082 0.280 0.886 26 892452 1746 1930 185 0.411 0.230 0.866 3.246 0.261 0.821 27 892461 1777 1907 131 0.532 0.290 0.981 3.055 0.229 0.875 28 892462 1771 1961 191 0.471 0.329 1.234 3.771 0.248 0.913 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1723 TO 1991 269 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.772 0.361 0.758 3.384 0.220 0.812 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.438 0.224 0.434 1.466 0.032 0.089 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 0.555 0.288 0.760 3.008 0.219 0.829 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.648 0.211 0.385 1.241 0.051 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.329 0.127 -0.048 2.202 0.149 0.618 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 78 0.473 0.224 0.591 2.446 0.196 0.756 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.121 0.434 0.976 3.686 0.247 0.884 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 1.786 0.968 2.156 9.373 0.280 0.922 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 356 0.364 0.348 0.018 -0.341 2.085 -0.483 0.950 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.483 SERIES 892342 AND 892372 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.950 SERIES 892461 AND 892462 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.18 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 36. 66. 120. 171. 153. 136. 210. RBAR 0.341 0.685 0.369 0.493 0.347 0.389 0.269 0.398 SDEV 0.190 0.106 0.319 0.251 0.249 0.206 0.329 0.234 SERR 0.049 0.018 0.039 0.023 0.019 0.017 0.028 0.016 EPS 0.812 0.961 0.903 0.948 0.911 0.929 0.895 0.942 NSS 8.4 11.4 15.9 18.6 19.4 20.6 23.1 24.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1723 1991 269 0.664 0.336 2.162 10.766 0.150 0.860 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.021 -0.010 0.265 74 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.71 2.53 1.00 1.19 3.73 22.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.08 0.00 0.83 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 165. 112. 53. 78. 190. 269. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.857 0.764 0.684 0.617 0.599 0.573 0.568 0.553 0.525 0.506 PACF 0.857 0.113 0.023 0.026 0.166 0.029 0.097 0.018 -0.009 0.029 95% C.L. 0.122 0.192 0.233 0.261 0.282 0.300 0.316 0.331 0.344 0.356 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.856 0.817 0.116 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02425840 2.74423242 2 892322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04308461 3.01693439 3 892331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00640357 1.22621620 4 892332 1 1.34142101 0.05099024 0.00000000 0.96253633 5 892341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031205 0.51334310 6 892342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217192 0.59071320 7 892351 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165179 0.42921761 8 892352 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230118 0.35368690 9 892361 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03968140 2.82826948 10 892362 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02063228 1.99189806 11 892371 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230244 0.57079679 12 892372 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00438945 0.52384365 13 892381 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01652666 2.01745009 14 892382 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01973423 1.98112524 15 892391 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029090 0.44724119 16 892392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165048 0.25693247 17 892401 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00508128 1.04662406 19 892411 1 1.42679322 0.01918774 0.00000000 0.17381920 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892412 1 1.02868569 0.01185472 0.00000000 0.16482280 21 892421 1 0.81388694 0.01351187 0.00000000 0.26500881 22 892422 1 0.80130059 0.00906661 0.00000000 0.16575299 23 892431 1 0.97429848 0.11182340 0.00000000 0.47393748 24 892432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00150274 0.61083794 25 892451 1 0.76497781 0.00941061 0.00000000 0.02147252 26 892452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326929 0.71656716 27 892461 1 1.06939566 0.01362802 0.00000000 0.03697079 28 892462 1 1.07073116 0.01493628 0.00000000 0.11964170 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892321 1914 1991 78 0.986 0.405 0.959 3.491 0.209 0.788 2 892322 1931 1991 61 1.061 0.627 3.810 16.914 0.229 0.713 3 892331 1939 1991 53 1.000 0.242 0.331 2.730 0.175 0.563 4 892332 1925 1991 67 1.000 0.223 0.192 3.148 0.146 0.623 5 892341 1805 1991 187 1.000 0.424 1.296 6.083 0.212 0.787 6 892342 1842 1991 150 0.997 0.320 1.116 4.566 0.226 0.615 7 892351 1803 1991 189 0.997 0.348 0.744 3.690 0.216 0.644 8 892352 1818 1991 174 0.999 0.291 1.014 4.196 0.216 0.480 9 892361 1920 1988 69 1.185 0.805 4.362 23.607 0.207 0.519 10 892362 1914 1991 78 1.022 0.299 1.559 7.644 0.178 0.600 11 892371 1837 1991 155 1.000 0.326 0.617 3.273 0.193 0.711 12 892372 1886 1991 106 0.998 0.374 0.344 2.222 0.197 0.793 13 892381 1919 1991 73 0.996 0.198 -0.005 2.524 0.171 0.498 14 892382 1934 1991 58 1.001 0.224 0.231 3.607 0.184 0.411 15 892391 1825 1991 167 1.000 0.265 0.512 3.573 0.185 0.605 16 892392 1831 1991 161 0.992 0.354 0.488 2.858 0.203 0.729 17 892401 1740 1991 252 1.005 0.303 0.223 3.868 0.221 0.482 18 892402 1748 1934 187 1.077 0.579 2.034 8.844 0.244 0.770 19 892411 1723 1991 269 0.989 0.376 0.742 4.397 0.269 0.660 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892412 1746 1990 245 1.007 0.470 0.430 2.542 0.263 0.790 21 892421 1798 1991 194 1.001 0.282 0.339 3.025 0.206 0.596 22 892422 1755 1991 237 1.002 0.275 0.408 3.043 0.220 0.518 23 892431 1829 1991 163 1.000 0.459 1.411 7.095 0.255 0.732 24 892432 1810 1990 181 0.998 0.360 0.584 4.331 0.230 0.714 25 892451 1758 1991 234 1.002 0.361 0.696 4.793 0.279 0.561 26 892452 1746 1930 185 1.033 0.440 1.783 10.498 0.261 0.707 27 892461 1777 1907 131 1.003 0.265 0.528 3.154 0.228 0.355 28 892462 1771 1961 191 1.012 0.439 1.666 8.329 0.246 0.669 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.013 0.369 1.015 5.644 0.217 0.630 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.039 0.133 1.019 4.727 0.032 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.351 0.656 3.779 0.216 0.634 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.008 0.153 0.977 3.493 0.042 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.986 0.198 -0.005 2.222 0.146 0.355 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 78 0.998 0.278 0.376 3.096 0.195 0.540 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.006 0.431 1.354 6.589 0.237 0.722 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 1.185 0.805 4.362 23.607 0.279 0.793 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 892321 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 892322 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 892331 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 892332 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 892341 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 892342 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 892351 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 892352 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 892361 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 892362 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 892371 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 892372 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 892381 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 892382 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 892391 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 892392 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 892401 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 892402 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 892411 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 892412 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 892421 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 892422 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 892431 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 892432 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 892451 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 892452 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 892461 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 892462 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892321 1914 1991 78 0.987 0.291 0.361 2.502 0.210 0.562 2 892322 1931 1991 61 0.991 0.299 0.593 3.657 0.228 0.552 3 892331 1939 1991 53 0.995 0.204 0.167 2.482 0.173 0.387 4 892332 1925 1991 67 0.997 0.190 0.089 3.004 0.146 0.514 5 892341 1805 1991 187 0.994 0.299 1.005 5.288 0.212 0.569 6 892342 1842 1991 150 0.992 0.263 0.751 3.711 0.226 0.436 7 892351 1803 1991 189 0.994 0.299 0.665 3.361 0.216 0.560 8 892352 1818 1991 174 0.997 0.275 0.940 4.207 0.216 0.431 9 892361 1920 1988 69 0.997 0.240 0.768 5.176 0.204 0.321 10 892362 1914 1991 78 0.996 0.223 0.611 3.566 0.176 0.431 11 892371 1837 1991 155 0.990 0.261 0.284 3.286 0.194 0.561 12 892372 1886 1991 106 0.985 0.292 0.424 3.067 0.196 0.664 13 892381 1919 1991 73 0.998 0.171 -0.018 3.133 0.170 0.328 14 892382 1934 1991 58 0.996 0.170 -0.688 4.434 0.184 0.062 15 892391 1825 1991 167 0.997 0.227 0.518 3.676 0.185 0.465 16 892392 1831 1991 161 0.997 0.256 0.719 4.849 0.203 0.439 17 892401 1740 1991 252 0.999 0.296 0.157 3.788 0.221 0.475 18 892402 1748 1934 187 0.986 0.337 0.498 3.849 0.244 0.634 19 892411 1723 1991 269 0.997 0.360 0.556 3.877 0.269 0.606 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892412 1746 1990 245 0.982 0.401 0.357 3.058 0.263 0.727 21 892421 1798 1991 194 0.997 0.263 0.286 3.182 0.206 0.540 22 892422 1755 1991 237 0.999 0.260 0.343 3.056 0.220 0.480 23 892431 1829 1991 163 0.982 0.364 1.342 6.485 0.255 0.609 24 892432 1810 1990 181 0.988 0.304 0.636 4.559 0.230 0.571 25 892451 1758 1991 234 0.998 0.348 0.505 4.146 0.279 0.533 26 892452 1746 1930 185 0.995 0.339 0.318 3.748 0.260 0.590 27 892461 1777 1907 131 0.999 0.254 0.482 3.215 0.228 0.328 28 892462 1771 1961 191 0.989 0.359 1.423 7.452 0.246 0.573 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 0.993 0.280 0.503 3.922 0.216 0.498 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.005 0.060 0.410 1.123 0.032 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 0.995 0.283 0.502 3.694 0.216 0.537 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.008 0.073 0.390 1.163 0.042 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.982 0.170 -0.688 2.482 0.146 0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 78 0.989 0.247 0.302 3.158 0.195 0.434 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 0.997 0.320 0.692 4.321 0.237 0.572 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 0.999 0.401 1.423 7.452 0.279 0.727 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 356 0.320 0.168 0.009 -0.313 3.146 -0.208 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.208 SERIES 892382 AND 892451 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 892451 AND 892452 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.18 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 36. 66. 120. 171. 153. 136. 210. RBAR 0.382 0.469 0.519 0.514 0.366 0.409 0.310 0.328 SDEV 0.173 0.164 0.177 0.162 0.169 0.198 0.258 0.192 SERR 0.045 0.027 0.022 0.015 0.013 0.016 0.022 0.013 EPS 0.838 0.910 0.945 0.952 0.918 0.935 0.912 0.923 NSS 8.4 11.4 15.9 18.6 19.4 20.6 23.1 24.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1723 1991 269 0.995 0.199 0.262 3.546 0.147 0.597 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.211 0.093 0.114 82 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.46 1.00 1.05 1.51 23.69 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.595 0.386 0.244 0.129 0.091 0.013 -0.002 -0.021 -0.039 -0.032 PACF 0.595 0.050 -0.006 -0.040 0.034 -0.073 0.018 -0.018 -0.018 0.005 95% C.L. 0.122 0.159 0.173 0.178 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.369 0.605 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.525 0.316 0.204 0.118 0.091 -0.001 -0.038 -0.051 -0.062 -0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.525 2 0.496 0.055 3 0.495 0.042 0.025 4 0.495 0.043 0.032 -0.013 5 0.496 0.042 0.030 -0.028 0.029 6 0.498 0.039 0.033 -0.024 0.073 -0.089 7 0.496 0.041 0.033 -0.023 0.074 -0.077 -0.023 8 0.496 0.040 0.034 -0.023 0.075 -0.076 -0.015 -0.016 9 0.496 0.040 0.032 -0.022 0.074 -0.076 -0.015 -0.007 -0.018 10 0.497 0.040 0.033 -0.017 0.069 -0.074 -0.017 -0.010 -0.052 0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2137.72 2052.89 2054.08 2055.91 2057.86 2059.63 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2059.51 2061.36 2063.29 2065.21 2065.91 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.525 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.59 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 138.10 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.525 0.276 0.145 0.076 0.040 0.021 0.011 0.006 0.003 0.0016 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 892321 1 0.342 0.566 2 892322 1 0.332 0.561 3 892331 1 0.154 0.392 4 892332 1 0.272 0.520 5 892341 1 0.355 0.580 6 892342 1 0.241 0.438 7 892351 1 0.336 0.564 8 892352 1 0.197 0.432 9 892361 1 0.195 0.359 10 892362 1 0.197 0.437 11 892371 1 0.320 0.565 12 892372 1 0.471 0.666 13 892381 1 0.163 0.330 14 892382 1 0.018 0.062 15 892391 1 0.231 0.479 16 892392 1 0.220 0.469 17 892401 1 0.250 0.480 18 892402 1 0.409 0.635 19 892411 1 0.391 0.613 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 892412 1 0.569 0.731 21 892421 1 0.304 0.541 22 892422 1 0.255 0.480 23 892431 1 0.385 0.615 24 892432 1 0.347 0.589 25 892451 1 0.293 0.535 26 892452 1 0.356 0.596 27 892461 1 0.112 0.333 28 892462 1 0.329 0.574 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.287 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.132 MEDIAN 1 0.298 0.538 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.143 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.018 0.062 LOWER HINGE 1 0.208 0.438 UPPER HINGE 1 0.351 0.584 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.569 0.731 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 892321 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.239 0.003 3.053 0.255 0.089 2 892322 1931 1991 61 1.000 0.248 0.696 3.647 0.274 0.088 3 892331 1939 1991 53 1.000 0.188 0.084 2.551 0.197 0.012 4 892332 1925 1991 67 1.000 0.162 0.106 3.174 0.186 0.030 5 892341 1805 1991 187 1.000 0.244 0.758 4.869 0.269 -0.086 6 892342 1842 1991 150 1.000 0.237 0.375 3.130 0.279 -0.105 7 892351 1803 1991 189 1.000 0.246 0.650 4.589 0.280 -0.091 8 892352 1818 1991 174 1.000 0.248 0.764 4.354 0.273 -0.050 9 892361 1920 1988 69 1.000 0.224 1.064 6.452 0.239 -0.047 10 892362 1914 1991 78 1.000 0.200 0.801 5.034 0.219 -0.028 11 892371 1837 1991 155 1.000 0.215 0.107 3.588 0.235 0.017 12 892372 1886 1991 106 1.000 0.217 -0.039 3.383 0.259 -0.144 13 892381 1919 1991 73 1.000 0.162 -0.042 2.891 0.179 0.080 14 892382 1934 1991 58 1.000 0.170 -0.725 4.540 0.190 -0.007 15 892391 1825 1991 167 1.000 0.199 0.310 4.025 0.231 -0.011 16 892392 1831 1991 161 1.000 0.223 0.328 4.395 0.247 -0.033 17 892401 1740 1991 252 1.000 0.260 0.467 6.149 0.266 -0.075 18 892402 1748 1934 187 1.000 0.260 0.599 4.219 0.288 -0.059 19 892411 1723 1991 269 1.000 0.283 0.077 4.192 0.336 -0.098 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 892412 1746 1990 245 1.000 0.273 -0.088 3.318 0.354 -0.191 21 892421 1798 1991 194 1.000 0.222 0.051 3.635 0.259 -0.067 22 892422 1755 1991 237 1.000 0.228 0.303 3.074 0.270 -0.084 23 892431 1829 1991 163 1.000 0.287 0.587 4.711 0.321 -0.057 24 892432 1810 1990 181 1.000 0.246 0.625 4.485 0.279 0.007 25 892451 1758 1991 234 1.000 0.294 0.413 4.088 0.332 -0.049 26 892452 1746 1930 185 1.000 0.272 0.309 4.289 0.308 -0.004 27 892461 1777 1907 131 1.000 0.240 0.454 3.727 0.258 -0.007 28 892462 1771 1961 191 1.000 0.294 1.105 7.792 0.309 0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.000 0.235 0.362 4.191 0.264 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 65 0.000 0.037 0.393 1.147 0.045 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.239 0.351 4.140 0.267 -0.040 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.044 0.557 1.214 0.047 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 53 1.000 0.162 -0.725 2.551 0.179 -0.191 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 78 1.000 0.216 0.080 3.351 0.237 -0.080 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.260 0.637 4.565 0.284 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 269 1.000 0.294 1.105 7.792 0.354 0.089 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 356 0.339 0.126 0.007 -0.211 3.316 -0.149 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.149 SERIES 892382 AND 892451 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 892451 AND 892452 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 94.18 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 15. 36. 66. 120. 171. 153. 136. 210. RBAR 0.265 0.381 0.448 0.461 0.423 0.422 0.363 0.348 SDEV 0.140 0.133 0.152 0.136 0.154 0.171 0.169 0.122 SERR 0.036 0.022 0.019 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.008 EPS 0.751 0.876 0.928 0.941 0.934 0.938 0.929 0.929 NSS 8.4 11.4 15.9 18.6 19.4 20.6 23.1 24.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1723 1991 269 0.998 0.151 -0.104 3.324 0.171 0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.192 0.089 0.080 81 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.44 1.00 1.09 1.53 13.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.067 0.064 -0.042 0.075 -0.049 -0.001 0.000 -0.045 0.038 PACF 0.002 0.067 0.064 -0.047 0.067 -0.048 -0.004 -0.005 -0.033 0.030 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.067 0.064 -0.043 0.075 -0.049 -0.001 0.000 -0.045 0.038 PACF 0.000 0.067 0.064 -0.047 0.067 -0.048 -0.004 -0.005 -0.033 0.030 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1723 1991 269 0.998 0.183 0.271 3.509 0.141 0.559 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.557 0.351 0.218 0.098 0.083 0.006 -0.006 -0.021 -0.047 -0.039 PACF 0.557 0.060 0.001 -0.054 0.055 -0.075 0.015 -0.018 -0.028 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.122 0.155 0.167 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.322 0.565 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.72 MINUTES