RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS054E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS054E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 913 1 Moma River WIDTH_EARLY LADA - 913 2 Russia Larch 570 6553-14518 1591 1991 - 913 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 913011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1672 1672 / 1680 1681 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 913012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1607 1607 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 913041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1604 1604 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 913042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1570 1570 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 913052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1435 1435 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 913071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1406 1406 / 1670 1671 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 913072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1406 1406 / 1556 1556 / 1559 1559 / 1654 1655 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 913092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 1 GAPS / 1508 1522 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 913101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1678 1678 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 913121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1468 1468 / 1497 1497 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 913122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1472 1472 / 1494 1494 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 913011 1365 1701 337 0.338 0.204 1.090 4.581 0.377 0.723 2 913012 1361 1657 297 0.295 0.212 1.331 4.684 0.424 0.750 3 913021 1427 1676 250 0.370 0.390 2.234 7.749 0.487 0.837 4 913022 1430 1695 266 0.381 0.402 2.843 11.547 0.453 0.810 5 913041 1404 1648 245 0.536 0.561 1.932 6.727 0.409 0.891 6 913042 1403 1651 249 0.486 0.529 1.887 6.327 0.420 0.884 7 913051 1386 1656 271 0.341 0.269 1.444 5.254 0.418 0.781 8 913052 1377 1883 507 0.361 0.316 1.854 7.432 0.384 0.806 9 913062 1478 1695 218 0.292 0.237 1.845 7.940 0.392 0.798 10 913071 1337 1676 340 0.238 0.234 2.766 11.616 0.369 0.771 11 913072 1338 1945 608 0.212 0.200 2.149 8.592 0.423 0.801 12 913092 1373 1708 336 0.263 0.143 1.124 5.669 0.355 0.684 13 913101 1419 1690 272 0.399 0.403 1.720 5.965 0.414 0.893 14 913102 1419 1633 215 0.390 0.359 1.890 6.679 0.413 0.880 15 913111 1547 1692 146 0.327 0.161 0.728 3.319 0.447 0.384 16 913112 1549 1696 148 0.238 0.116 1.128 4.889 0.468 0.247 17 913121 1311 1528 218 0.270 0.236 1.802 6.888 0.412 0.838 18 913122 1337 1531 195 0.252 0.210 1.083 3.339 0.408 0.844 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 18 FROM 1311 TO 1945 635 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 282 0.333 0.288 1.714 6.622 0.415 0.757 STANDARD DEVIATION 114 0.087 0.128 0.577 2.336 0.034 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 258 0.333 0.237 1.824 6.503 0.413 0.803 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 105 0.118 0.186 0.805 2.860 0.032 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.212 0.116 0.728 3.319 0.355 0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 216 0.263 0.204 1.128 4.889 0.392 0.750 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 321 0.381 0.390 1.932 7.749 0.424 0.844 MAXIMUM VALUE 603 0.536 0.561 2.843 11.616 0.487 0.893 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 149 0.528 0.221 0.018 -0.375 2.764 -0.166 0.980 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.166 SERIES 913062 AND 913072 218 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.980 SERIES 913041 AND 913042 245 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.39 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1370. 1395. 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. CORR 6. 15. 36. 78. 105. 105. 91. 91. 91. 120. RBAR 0.571 0.551 0.497 0.631 0.506 0.499 0.548 0.504 0.522 0.398 SDEV 0.224 0.269 0.219 0.181 0.326 0.364 0.163 0.162 0.180 0.236 SERR 0.092 0.069 0.037 0.021 0.032 0.036 0.017 0.017 0.019 0.022 EPS 0.893 0.918 0.924 0.962 0.940 0.940 0.949 0.940 0.945 0.914 NSS 6.3 9.2 12.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 15.4 15.3 15.9 16.0 YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 105. 55. 21. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.432 0.588 0.256 0.254 -0.251 0.118 0.338 0.337 -0.149 -0.111 SDEV 0.247 0.268 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.286 SERR 0.024 0.036 0.062 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.923 0.952 0.789 0.677 -1.006 0.212 0.506 0.504 -0.349 -0.250 NSS 15.8 14.0 10.9 6.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1311 1945 635 0.329 0.214 1.249 4.633 0.326 0.820 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.606 0.513 0.015 104 531 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 2.21 1.00 1.16 3.37 61.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.20 0.00 0.80 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 258. 118. 146. 218. 336. 608. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.819 0.751 0.693 0.675 0.649 0.646 0.614 0.588 0.599 0.591 PACF 0.819 0.245 0.090 0.151 0.070 0.113 0.001 0.004 0.138 0.031 95% C.L. 0.079 0.121 0.148 0.167 0.183 0.197 0.210 0.221 0.231 0.240 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.717 0.531 0.142 -0.019 0.110 0.022 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 913011 1 0.49751973 0.01699866 0.00000000 0.24994804 2 913012 1 0.53407663 0.01071613 0.00000000 0.13409203 3 913021 1 1.63589001 0.03382208 0.00000000 0.18030930 4 913022 1 1.91592646 0.04418533 0.00000000 0.22116940 5 913041 1 2.17187285 0.02211015 0.00000000 0.14021032 6 913042 1 2.04101610 0.02147740 0.00000000 0.10874244 7 913051 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 913052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006063 0.37697700 9 913062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00259116 0.57597935 10 913071 1 0.95760286 0.02845784 0.00000000 0.13907030 11 913072 1 0.76034480 0.02698236 0.00000000 0.16519567 12 913092 1 0.49243328 0.06729805 0.00000000 0.24274184 13 913101 1 1.16727090 0.01087232 0.00000000 0.02535664 14 913102 1 1.11270845 0.02252885 0.00000000 0.16497980 15 913111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124329 0.41843647 16 913112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079156 0.29734969 17 913121 1 0.80400592 0.02066826 0.00000000 0.09338022 18 913122 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 913011 1365 1701 337 1.000 0.517 0.722 3.439 0.377 0.616 2 913012 1361 1657 297 1.004 0.578 1.344 6.234 0.425 0.621 3 913021 1427 1676 250 1.002 0.564 1.026 3.881 0.486 0.357 4 913022 1430 1695 266 1.001 0.526 0.916 3.614 0.452 0.453 5 913041 1404 1648 245 0.973 0.466 0.729 3.984 0.410 0.585 6 913042 1403 1651 249 0.969 0.480 0.784 3.940 0.425 0.500 7 913051 1386 1656 271 0.998 0.484 0.755 3.702 0.417 0.446 8 913052 1377 1883 507 1.000 0.877 1.810 7.012 0.384 0.805 9 913062 1478 1695 218 1.238 1.395 5.124 33.842 0.391 0.767 10 913071 1337 1676 340 1.002 0.559 2.909 19.477 0.368 0.603 11 913072 1338 1945 608 1.000 0.822 2.251 11.028 0.425 0.773 12 913092 1373 1708 336 1.000 0.485 0.582 3.065 0.351 0.599 13 913101 1419 1690 272 0.964 0.585 0.524 2.512 0.413 0.699 14 913102 1419 1633 215 1.005 0.536 0.276 2.363 0.411 0.615 15 913111 1547 1692 146 0.997 0.461 0.734 3.701 0.443 0.341 16 913112 1549 1696 148 0.999 0.472 1.291 5.645 0.465 0.205 17 913121 1311 1528 218 0.987 0.517 1.066 4.493 0.411 0.513 18 913122 1337 1531 195 0.995 0.500 0.657 3.021 0.412 0.459 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.007 0.601 1.306 6.942 0.415 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 115 0.059 0.229 1.158 7.852 0.034 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.522 0.850 3.910 0.413 0.592 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 118 0.007 0.093 0.622 2.795 0.034 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.964 0.461 0.276 2.363 0.351 0.205 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 218 0.995 0.484 0.722 3.439 0.391 0.453 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.002 0.578 1.344 6.234 0.425 0.621 MAXIMUM VALUE 608 1.238 1.395 5.124 33.842 0.486 0.805 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 913011 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 913012 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 913021 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 913022 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 913041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 913042 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 913051 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 913052 -67 339 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 913062 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 913071 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 913072 -67 407 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 913092 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 913101 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 913102 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 913111 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 913112 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 913121 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 913122 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 913011 1365 1701 337 0.997 0.510 0.688 3.330 0.377 0.608 2 913012 1361 1657 297 0.994 0.516 0.747 3.407 0.425 0.546 3 913021 1427 1676 250 0.996 0.525 0.782 3.379 0.486 0.315 4 913022 1430 1695 266 0.997 0.470 0.592 2.877 0.452 0.358 5 913041 1404 1648 245 0.994 0.383 0.453 3.608 0.411 0.189 6 913042 1403 1651 249 0.994 0.440 1.018 5.940 0.425 0.224 7 913051 1386 1656 271 0.997 0.473 0.678 3.503 0.417 0.431 8 913052 1377 1883 507 0.944 0.604 1.024 4.573 0.384 0.704 9 913062 1478 1695 218 1.004 0.574 1.108 4.411 0.390 0.609 10 913071 1337 1676 340 0.991 0.490 2.070 13.181 0.368 0.540 11 913072 1338 1945 608 0.962 0.624 1.384 6.390 0.425 0.682 12 913092 1373 1708 336 0.992 0.460 0.539 2.989 0.351 0.574 13 913101 1419 1690 272 0.988 0.552 0.528 2.939 0.413 0.598 14 913102 1419 1633 215 0.986 0.495 0.216 2.384 0.411 0.543 15 913111 1547 1692 146 0.990 0.412 0.543 3.255 0.443 0.180 16 913112 1549 1696 148 0.996 0.444 1.030 4.643 0.465 0.161 17 913121 1311 1528 218 0.995 0.476 0.718 3.177 0.411 0.377 18 913122 1337 1531 195 0.996 0.491 0.623 2.947 0.412 0.444 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 0.990 0.497 0.819 4.274 0.415 0.449 STANDARD DEVIATION 115 0.014 0.063 0.418 2.465 0.034 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 258 0.994 0.490 0.703 3.393 0.413 0.492 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 118 0.006 0.065 0.481 1.584 0.035 0.283 MINIMUM VALUE 146 0.944 0.383 0.216 2.384 0.351 0.161 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 218 0.990 0.460 0.543 2.989 0.390 0.315 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 0.996 0.525 1.024 4.573 0.425 0.598 MAXIMUM VALUE 608 1.004 0.624 2.070 13.181 0.486 0.704 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 149 0.427 0.152 0.012 0.312 3.294 0.012 0.860 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.012 SERIES 913072 AND 913092 336 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.860 SERIES 913021 AND 913022 247 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.39 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1370. 1395. 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. CORR 6. 15. 36. 78. 105. 105. 91. 91. 91. 120. RBAR 0.585 0.420 0.526 0.543 0.476 0.498 0.556 0.491 0.481 0.408 SDEV 0.213 0.298 0.221 0.232 0.382 0.264 0.142 0.162 0.188 0.225 SERR 0.087 0.077 0.037 0.026 0.037 0.026 0.015 0.017 0.020 0.021 EPS 0.898 0.869 0.932 0.946 0.933 0.940 0.951 0.936 0.936 0.917 NSS 6.3 9.2 12.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 15.4 15.3 15.9 16.0 YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 105. 55. 21. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.432 0.528 0.300 0.230 -0.191 0.146 0.305 0.272 -0.120 -0.147 SDEV 0.220 0.230 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 SERR 0.021 0.031 0.065 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.923 0.940 0.823 0.648 -0.668 0.254 0.468 0.428 -0.272 -0.344 NSS 15.8 14.0 10.9 6.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1311 1945 635 0.999 0.392 0.536 3.401 0.324 0.499 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.399 0.262 0.079 85 550 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.70 1.00 1.10 1.80 31.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.499 0.432 0.304 0.262 0.248 0.252 0.189 0.145 0.159 0.152 PACF 0.499 0.244 0.028 0.049 0.078 0.083 -0.024 -0.031 0.062 0.037 95% C.L. 0.079 0.097 0.109 0.114 0.118 0.121 0.124 0.126 0.127 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.294 0.378 0.243 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.362 0.347 0.190 0.151 0.155 0.170 0.113 0.040 0.040 0.022 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.362 2 0.272 0.248 3 0.271 0.246 0.007 4 0.271 0.243 0.002 0.015 5 0.269 0.242 -0.016 -0.005 0.076 6 0.263 0.243 -0.015 -0.026 0.053 0.086 7 0.264 0.244 -0.015 -0.026 0.056 0.089 -0.014 8 0.263 0.251 -0.011 -0.028 0.055 0.108 0.006 -0.077 9 0.263 0.250 -0.011 -0.029 0.055 0.108 0.005 -0.078 0.006 10 0.263 0.251 -0.011 -0.030 0.055 0.108 0.005 -0.080 0.003 0.009 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 5667.85 5580.59 5542.23 5544.21 5546.06 5544.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 5541.75 5543.63 5541.89 5543.87 5545.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.272 0.248 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.46 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.65 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.272 0.322 0.155 0.122 0.072 0.050 0.031 0.021 0.013 0.0089 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 913011 2 0.428 0.437 0.283 2 913012 2 0.333 0.424 0.223 3 913021 2 0.152 0.244 0.229 4 913022 2 0.201 0.258 0.281 5 913041 2 0.119 0.135 0.292 6 913042 2 0.121 0.167 0.255 7 913051 2 0.222 0.348 0.196 8 913052 2 0.519 0.606 0.150 9 913062 2 0.382 0.528 0.133 10 913071 2 0.346 0.394 0.271 11 913072 2 0.501 0.523 0.234 12 913092 2 0.350 0.477 0.170 13 913101 2 0.403 0.450 0.249 14 913102 2 0.328 0.433 0.207 15 913111 2 0.128 0.128 0.295 16 913112 2 0.082 0.122 0.240 17 913121 2 0.202 0.284 0.250 18 913122 2 0.235 0.364 0.187 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.281 0.351 0.230 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.136 0.150 0.048 MEDIAN 2 0.282 0.379 0.237 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.230 0.206 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.082 0.122 0.133 LOWER HINGE 2 0.152 0.244 0.196 UPPER HINGE 2 0.382 0.450 0.271 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.519 0.606 0.295 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 913011 1365 1701 337 1.000 0.387 0.516 3.622 0.444 -0.029 2 913012 1361 1657 297 1.001 0.419 0.479 3.826 0.491 -0.001 3 913021 1427 1676 250 1.003 0.477 0.362 3.039 0.551 0.022 4 913022 1430 1695 266 1.000 0.421 0.297 2.806 0.494 0.019 5 913041 1404 1648 245 1.000 0.359 0.339 3.627 0.420 -0.010 6 913042 1403 1651 249 1.001 0.413 1.117 7.552 0.442 -0.017 7 913051 1386 1656 271 1.000 0.418 0.247 3.266 0.487 -0.013 8 913052 1377 1883 507 1.001 0.414 0.599 4.226 0.470 -0.016 9 913062 1478 1695 218 1.000 0.451 0.723 4.688 0.497 -0.001 10 913071 1337 1676 340 1.000 0.396 1.149 8.609 0.434 -0.012 11 913072 1338 1945 608 1.002 0.439 1.168 7.352 0.480 -0.019 12 913092 1373 1708 336 1.000 0.370 0.231 3.117 0.414 0.003 13 913101 1419 1690 272 1.003 0.419 0.494 3.752 0.457 -0.015 14 913102 1419 1633 215 1.000 0.406 0.193 2.856 0.445 0.000 15 913111 1547 1692 146 1.000 0.386 0.539 3.686 0.448 -0.032 16 913112 1549 1696 148 1.000 0.425 0.816 3.890 0.470 -0.003 17 913121 1311 1528 218 1.000 0.427 0.586 3.352 0.484 -0.019 18 913122 1337 1531 195 1.001 0.427 0.459 3.272 0.499 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 284 1.001 0.414 0.573 4.252 0.468 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 115 0.001 0.028 0.311 1.730 0.034 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 258 1.000 0.418 0.505 3.657 0.470 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 118 0.001 0.031 0.384 0.960 0.047 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.359 0.193 2.806 0.414 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 218 1.000 0.396 0.339 3.266 0.444 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 336 1.001 0.427 0.723 4.226 0.491 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 608 1.003 0.477 1.168 8.609 0.551 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 149 0.500 0.125 0.010 -0.082 4.008 0.147 0.866 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.147 SERIES 913072 AND 913112 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.866 SERIES 913021 AND 913022 247 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.39 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 31.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1370. 1395. 1420. 1445. 1470. 1495. 1520. 1545. 1570. 1595. CORR 6. 15. 36. 78. 105. 105. 91. 91. 91. 120. RBAR 0.572 0.549 0.584 0.512 0.580 0.609 0.606 0.508 0.511 0.533 SDEV 0.216 0.193 0.134 0.224 0.206 0.146 0.113 0.153 0.156 0.176 SERR 0.088 0.050 0.022 0.025 0.020 0.014 0.012 0.016 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.893 0.918 0.946 0.939 0.955 0.961 0.960 0.940 0.943 0.948 NSS 6.3 9.2 12.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 15.4 15.3 15.9 16.0 YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 105. 55. 21. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.543 0.538 0.234 -0.239 -0.198 -0.050 0.027 0.026 0.147 0.103 SDEV 0.161 0.162 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 0.299 SERR 0.016 0.022 0.065 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.949 0.942 0.768 6.273 -0.704 -0.105 0.052 0.050 0.257 0.186 NSS 15.8 14.0 10.9 6.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1311 1945 635 1.001 0.310 0.158 3.136 0.360 -0.073 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.146 0.111 98 537 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.03 1.00 1.09 2.12 281.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.073 -0.033 -0.031 -0.017 0.019 0.098 0.004 -0.042 0.011 -0.027 PACF -0.073 -0.039 -0.036 -0.024 0.013 0.099 0.020 -0.032 0.013 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.079 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 -0.073 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.004 -0.037 -0.016 0.024 0.099 0.010 -0.038 0.007 -0.024 PACF -0.001 -0.004 -0.037 -0.016 0.024 0.098 0.009 -0.037 0.015 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.079 0.079 0.079 0.079 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1311 1945 635 1.001 0.341 0.407 2.994 0.310 0.355 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.354 0.341 0.166 0.146 0.123 0.148 0.078 0.034 0.054 0.031 PACF 0.354 0.247 -0.015 0.026 0.051 0.076 -0.028 -0.052 0.041 0.005 95% C.L. 0.079 0.089 0.097 0.098 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.179 0.267 0.246 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.28 MINUTES