RUN: RUSS002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS062E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS062E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 923 1 Kedvaran WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 923 2 Russia Scots pine, Scotch pine 70 6415-5334 1717 1990 - 923 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 923392 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 25 IN 1 GAPS / 1843 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 923411 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1814 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 923412 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 4 GAPS / 1806 1808 / 1846 1847 / 2070 2071 / 2105 2105 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 923432 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1839 1843 / 1919 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 923441 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1952 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 923452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 923461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1840 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 923471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1768 1768 / 1775 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 923482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1757 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 923492 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1844 1844 / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 923181 1775 1990 216 0.425 0.192 0.511 2.356 0.209 0.842 2 923182 1856 1990 135 0.665 0.279 0.103 2.114 0.221 0.779 3 923191 1778 1990 213 0.371 0.230 0.761 2.653 0.287 0.838 4 923192 1774 1990 217 0.374 0.200 0.785 3.231 0.271 0.801 5 923201 1850 1990 141 0.389 0.235 1.359 4.269 0.301 0.762 6 923202 1820 1990 171 0.365 0.206 1.015 3.487 0.267 0.805 7 923211 1801 1990 190 0.496 0.238 0.950 4.225 0.272 0.758 8 923212 1774 1990 217 0.353 0.187 0.905 3.303 0.283 0.798 9 923321 1774 1990 217 0.447 0.208 0.995 5.336 0.235 0.805 10 923322 1838 1990 153 0.609 0.208 0.709 3.924 0.235 0.618 11 923391 1841 1990 150 0.340 0.177 1.388 4.555 0.247 0.829 12 923392 1775 1986 212 0.262 0.181 1.756 6.427 0.291 0.875 13 923401 1755 1990 236 0.434 0.287 1.225 4.205 0.224 0.884 14 923402 1777 1990 214 0.479 0.305 0.974 3.132 0.244 0.858 15 923411 1745 1965 221 0.468 0.247 0.721 2.903 0.264 0.823 16 923412 1774 2230 457 0.605 0.353 0.469 2.621 0.287 0.783 17 923431 1813 1990 178 0.628 0.503 2.068 7.602 0.292 0.893 18 923432 1818 1990 173 0.604 0.500 2.006 7.097 0.285 0.870 19 923441 1825 1990 166 0.797 0.363 1.021 3.668 0.187 0.865 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 923442 1825 1986 162 0.578 0.374 0.847 2.850 0.250 0.887 21 923451 1835 1990 156 0.545 0.400 1.630 4.966 0.232 0.920 22 923452 1817 1990 174 0.644 0.428 0.941 3.031 0.239 0.906 23 923461 1807 1990 184 0.611 0.393 1.134 3.707 0.242 0.864 24 923462 1819 1990 172 0.655 0.453 1.385 4.066 0.212 0.920 25 923471 1717 1990 274 0.316 0.199 1.071 3.466 0.315 0.807 26 923472 1730 1990 261 0.325 0.235 1.668 5.876 0.315 0.842 27 923481 1720 1924 205 0.364 0.212 0.707 3.208 0.322 0.810 28 923482 1719 1990 272 0.366 0.275 0.986 3.462 0.378 0.820 29 923491 1806 1990 185 0.483 0.271 1.243 4.616 0.312 0.795 30 923492 1797 1990 194 0.441 0.248 1.354 5.129 0.300 0.800 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1717 TO 2230 514 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.481 0.286 1.090 4.050 0.267 0.829 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.132 0.098 0.444 1.361 0.041 0.060 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 0.458 0.248 1.005 3.687 0.269 0.826 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.238 0.155 0.574 1.484 0.057 0.070 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.262 0.177 0.103 2.114 0.187 0.618 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.366 0.208 0.785 3.132 0.235 0.800 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 0.605 0.363 1.359 4.616 0.292 0.870 MAXIMUM VALUE 449 0.797 0.503 2.068 7.602 0.378 0.920 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.268 0.419 0.020 -0.189 1.649 -0.553 0.960 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.553 SERIES 923182 AND 923411 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.960 SERIES 923431 AND 923432 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 10. 15. 91. 253. 378. 435. 406. 378. RBAR 0.451 0.585 0.308 0.472 0.529 0.264 0.258 0.276 SDEV 0.210 0.166 0.285 0.261 0.229 0.305 0.280 0.232 SERR 0.066 0.043 0.030 0.016 0.012 0.015 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.881 0.954 0.905 0.961 0.971 0.915 0.911 0.917 NSS 9.0 14.8 21.4 27.4 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1717 2230 514 0.557 0.268 0.831 3.645 0.245 0.726 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.146 -0.080 0.170 69 445 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.92 1.01 1.07 1.99 15.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 192. 46. 135. 171. 217. 457. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.724 0.593 0.529 0.451 0.404 0.420 0.450 0.438 0.454 0.422 PACF 0.724 0.143 0.123 0.008 0.047 0.147 0.142 0.036 0.097 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.088 0.126 0.146 0.161 0.170 0.177 0.185 0.193 0.201 0.209 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.542 0.603 0.069 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 923181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208069 0.19961585 2 923182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00448293 0.36012381 3 923191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00259459 0.09308265 4 923192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200070 0.15634793 5 923201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113618 0.30840933 6 923202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00231776 0.16599450 7 923211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00224039 0.28167418 8 923212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174657 0.16225038 9 923321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00209595 0.21854582 10 923322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00280038 0.39345545 11 923391 1 0.63182431 0.08329203 0.00000000 0.29163995 12 923392 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112226 0.39951223 13 923401 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00250500 0.73069853 14 923402 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00346507 0.85132682 15 923411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165049 0.65370494 16 923412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044474 0.50025588 17 923431 1 1.59562480 0.02629652 0.00000000 0.29507586 18 923432 1 1.92526090 0.04038835 0.00000000 0.34601024 19 923441 1 0.93119830 0.02230667 0.00000000 0.55598009 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 923442 1 1.25334930 0.01739995 0.00000000 0.16370842 21 923451 1 1.26678634 0.02231561 0.00000000 0.19667609 22 923452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00646822 1.20461428 23 923461 1 1.21298015 0.01387531 0.00000000 0.17827825 24 923462 1 1.58800852 0.02159625 0.00000000 0.24212107 25 923471 1 0.41835871 0.02066958 0.00000000 0.24324949 26 923472 1 0.65922099 0.02189111 0.00000000 0.21120460 27 923481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212731 0.58306456 28 923482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00242662 0.70044738 29 923491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265670 0.73053288 30 923492 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166392 0.60462564 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 923181 1775 1990 216 1.010 0.364 0.704 4.018 0.208 0.728 2 923182 1856 1990 135 0.992 0.344 0.698 3.016 0.219 0.669 3 923191 1778 1990 213 1.001 0.418 0.368 2.736 0.285 0.666 4 923192 1774 1990 217 0.987 0.378 0.532 3.189 0.269 0.656 5 923201 1850 1990 141 0.996 0.567 1.224 4.005 0.299 0.743 6 923202 1820 1990 171 0.990 0.422 0.734 3.593 0.266 0.666 7 923211 1801 1990 190 0.999 0.402 0.645 3.197 0.271 0.656 8 923212 1774 1990 217 1.015 0.458 0.773 3.429 0.282 0.724 9 923321 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.368 0.850 4.495 0.234 0.691 10 923322 1838 1990 153 1.005 0.292 0.419 2.913 0.233 0.485 11 923391 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.434 1.554 6.514 0.245 0.758 12 923392 1775 1986 212 0.987 0.591 1.561 6.205 0.275 0.843 13 923401 1755 1990 236 1.004 0.493 1.192 5.085 0.224 0.792 14 923402 1777 1990 214 0.999 0.393 0.916 4.176 0.243 0.630 15 923411 1745 1965 221 0.988 0.448 0.726 3.130 0.260 0.774 16 923412 1774 2230 457 1.001 0.607 0.477 3.080 0.328 0.748 17 923431 1813 1990 178 1.003 0.479 0.820 3.272 0.290 0.669 18 923432 1818 1990 173 1.003 0.465 0.836 3.989 0.279 0.685 19 923441 1825 1990 166 1.000 0.346 0.555 2.965 0.184 0.764 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 923442 1825 1986 162 1.001 0.428 0.846 4.274 0.248 0.747 21 923451 1835 1990 156 1.004 0.412 0.653 2.987 0.231 0.728 22 923452 1817 1990 174 1.023 0.430 0.762 4.099 0.235 0.717 23 923461 1807 1990 184 1.004 0.408 0.540 2.859 0.245 0.710 24 923462 1819 1990 172 1.003 0.296 0.095 2.534 0.212 0.630 25 923471 1717 1990 274 1.000 0.566 1.376 5.681 0.313 0.785 26 923472 1730 1990 261 1.001 0.503 0.747 3.800 0.314 0.761 27 923481 1720 1924 205 0.977 0.455 0.754 3.614 0.321 0.676 28 923482 1719 1990 272 1.006 0.522 0.927 3.902 0.375 0.561 29 923491 1806 1990 185 0.997 0.434 0.476 2.834 0.311 0.638 30 923492 1797 1990 194 0.995 0.474 0.695 3.251 0.299 0.709 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 1.000 0.440 0.782 3.761 0.267 0.700 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.009 0.079 0.331 1.003 0.042 0.072 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.432 0.740 3.511 0.268 0.709 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.007 0.086 0.295 1.083 0.064 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.977 0.292 0.095 2.534 0.184 0.485 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 171 0.996 0.393 0.555 3.016 0.234 0.666 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.004 0.479 0.850 4.099 0.299 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 1.023 0.607 1.561 6.514 0.375 0.843 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 923181 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 923182 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 923191 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 923192 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 923201 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 923202 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 923211 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 923212 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 923321 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 923322 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 923391 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 923392 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 923401 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 923402 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 923411 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 923412 -67 306 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 923431 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 923432 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 923441 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 923442 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 923451 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 923452 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 923461 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 923462 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 923471 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 923472 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 923481 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 923482 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 923491 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 923492 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 923181 1775 1990 216 0.988 0.298 0.713 4.217 0.208 0.616 2 923182 1856 1990 135 0.988 0.264 0.925 4.258 0.219 0.419 3 923191 1778 1990 213 0.987 0.348 0.111 3.108 0.285 0.517 4 923192 1774 1990 217 0.993 0.327 0.177 2.933 0.269 0.553 5 923201 1850 1990 141 0.993 0.425 0.627 3.191 0.299 0.609 6 923202 1820 1990 171 0.990 0.358 0.478 3.367 0.266 0.513 7 923211 1801 1990 190 0.988 0.350 0.655 3.452 0.270 0.553 8 923212 1774 1990 217 0.990 0.384 0.722 4.137 0.282 0.654 9 923321 1774 1990 217 0.994 0.332 0.594 4.416 0.235 0.620 10 923322 1838 1990 153 0.998 0.250 -0.014 2.812 0.233 0.285 11 923391 1841 1990 150 0.995 0.353 0.761 3.965 0.246 0.636 12 923392 1775 1986 212 0.979 0.498 1.999 9.951 0.275 0.734 13 923401 1755 1990 236 0.975 0.368 0.822 4.356 0.224 0.688 14 923402 1777 1990 214 0.986 0.315 0.510 3.121 0.243 0.500 15 923411 1745 1965 221 0.994 0.317 -0.154 2.878 0.260 0.543 16 923412 1774 2230 457 0.985 0.601 0.972 5.059 0.328 0.727 17 923431 1813 1990 178 0.986 0.384 0.637 3.152 0.289 0.526 18 923432 1818 1990 173 0.989 0.368 0.607 3.676 0.280 0.532 19 923441 1825 1990 166 0.991 0.306 0.461 2.983 0.185 0.702 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 923442 1825 1986 162 0.990 0.388 0.624 3.533 0.249 0.708 21 923451 1835 1990 156 0.991 0.365 0.495 2.727 0.231 0.637 22 923452 1817 1990 174 0.988 0.358 0.443 3.463 0.235 0.643 23 923461 1807 1990 184 0.990 0.363 0.507 3.366 0.244 0.661 24 923462 1819 1990 172 0.998 0.286 0.137 2.663 0.212 0.609 25 923471 1717 1990 274 0.987 0.527 1.289 5.456 0.313 0.760 26 923472 1730 1990 261 0.990 0.472 0.650 3.453 0.314 0.735 27 923481 1720 1924 205 0.994 0.394 0.536 3.244 0.321 0.505 28 923482 1719 1990 272 0.980 0.438 0.573 2.930 0.375 0.472 29 923491 1806 1990 185 0.993 0.410 0.380 2.787 0.311 0.591 30 923492 1797 1990 194 0.987 0.426 0.625 3.284 0.300 0.635 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 0.989 0.376 0.595 3.731 0.267 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.005 0.076 0.394 1.362 0.042 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 192 0.990 0.364 0.600 3.367 0.268 0.613 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.006 0.082 0.253 1.155 0.064 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.975 0.250 -0.154 2.663 0.185 0.285 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 171 0.987 0.327 0.461 2.983 0.235 0.526 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 0.993 0.410 0.713 4.137 0.299 0.661 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 0.998 0.601 1.999 9.951 0.375 0.760 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.359 0.153 0.007 0.204 3.099 -0.006 0.908 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.006 SERIES 923412 AND 923442 162 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.908 SERIES 923491 AND 923492 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 10. 15. 91. 253. 378. 435. 406. 378. RBAR 0.506 0.594 0.323 0.450 0.486 0.336 0.301 0.284 SDEV 0.182 0.118 0.258 0.207 0.154 0.211 0.218 0.210 SERR 0.058 0.031 0.027 0.013 0.008 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.902 0.956 0.911 0.957 0.966 0.938 0.927 0.920 NSS 9.0 14.8 21.4 27.4 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1717 2230 514 0.993 0.357 0.134 2.686 0.259 0.599 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.068 0.032 0.124 102 412 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.74 1.01 1.11 1.84 42.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.598 0.420 0.344 0.244 0.188 0.175 0.222 0.194 0.177 0.156 PACF 0.598 0.096 0.094 -0.022 0.017 0.048 0.130 -0.005 0.021 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.088 0.116 0.127 0.134 0.137 0.139 0.141 0.144 0.146 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.370 0.531 0.046 0.093 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.576 0.374 0.336 0.281 0.198 0.107 0.125 0.048 -0.018 0.030 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.576 2 0.540 0.063 3 0.531 -0.017 0.147 4 0.525 -0.016 0.127 0.037 5 0.526 -0.014 0.127 0.048 -0.020 6 0.525 -0.010 0.135 0.047 0.014 -0.065 7 0.530 -0.012 0.132 0.037 0.015 -0.105 0.076 8 0.537 -0.022 0.133 0.040 0.028 -0.107 0.129 -0.099 9 0.533 -0.017 0.129 0.041 0.030 -0.101 0.128 -0.076 -0.042 10 0.537 -0.010 0.118 0.050 0.027 -0.104 0.117 -0.075 -0.086 0.083 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4639.54 4434.22 4434.20 4424.96 4426.24 4428.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4427.84 4426.83 4423.78 4424.88 4423.33 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.531 -0.017 0.147 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 34.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 153.60 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.531 0.265 0.279 0.222 0.152 0.118 0.093 0.070 0.053 0.0404 0.031 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0027 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 923181 3 0.404 0.534 0.062 0.104 2 923182 3 0.233 0.326 0.210 0.047 3 923191 3 0.295 0.434 0.090 0.107 4 923192 3 0.334 0.518 -0.001 0.103 5 923201 3 0.391 0.608 -0.041 0.096 6 923202 3 0.288 0.535 -0.037 0.065 7 923211 3 0.318 0.551 -0.063 0.121 8 923212 3 0.457 0.548 0.067 0.131 9 923321 3 0.411 0.612 -0.100 0.181 10 923322 3 0.143 0.207 0.121 0.194 11 923391 3 0.426 0.568 0.108 0.017 12 923392 3 0.566 0.707 0.037 0.023 13 923401 3 0.498 0.538 0.159 0.071 14 923402 3 0.278 0.452 0.059 0.067 15 923411 3 0.301 0.524 0.065 -0.049 16 923412 3 0.531 0.704 0.030 0.002 17 923431 3 0.299 0.449 0.086 0.093 18 923432 3 0.291 0.510 0.043 -0.003 19 923441 3 0.504 0.637 0.015 0.105 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 923442 3 0.508 0.683 -0.027 0.089 21 923451 3 0.446 0.513 0.144 0.068 22 923452 3 0.431 0.554 0.089 0.071 23 923461 3 0.465 0.513 0.160 0.078 24 923462 3 0.379 0.569 0.048 0.034 25 923471 3 0.582 0.689 0.051 0.052 26 923472 3 0.551 0.623 0.121 0.038 27 923481 3 0.272 0.440 0.077 0.083 28 923482 3 0.266 0.385 0.080 0.163 29 923491 3 0.373 0.514 0.058 0.109 30 923492 3 0.431 0.627 -0.093 0.169 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.389 0.536 0.054 0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.110 0.074 0.056 MEDIAN 3 0.397 0.536 0.060 0.080 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.169 0.102 0.075 0.060 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.143 0.207 -0.100 -0.049 LOWER HINGE 3 0.295 0.510 0.015 0.047 UPPER HINGE 3 0.465 0.612 0.090 0.107 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.582 0.707 0.210 0.194 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 923181 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.231 0.293 3.888 0.259 -0.014 2 923182 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.228 0.130 3.283 0.256 -0.021 3 923191 1778 1990 213 1.000 0.292 0.008 4.082 0.336 -0.010 4 923192 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.271 0.045 3.222 0.323 -0.018 5 923201 1850 1990 141 1.000 0.331 0.343 4.648 0.404 0.007 6 923202 1820 1990 171 1.000 0.301 0.597 5.025 0.326 0.005 7 923211 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.289 0.504 3.667 0.328 -0.006 8 923212 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.282 0.270 3.064 0.331 0.000 9 923321 1774 1990 217 1.000 0.256 0.789 5.347 0.289 -0.016 10 923322 1838 1990 153 1.000 0.232 -0.114 3.320 0.261 0.003 11 923391 1841 1990 150 1.000 0.267 0.154 3.247 0.311 0.003 12 923392 1775 1986 212 1.000 0.326 1.343 10.531 0.337 -0.012 13 923401 1755 1990 236 1.000 0.261 0.872 4.650 0.278 -0.006 14 923402 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.271 0.840 4.661 0.300 -0.007 15 923411 1745 1965 221 1.000 0.266 0.180 2.977 0.308 -0.005 16 923412 1774 2230 457 1.010 0.372 1.702 11.664 0.363 0.035 17 923431 1813 1990 178 1.000 0.320 0.714 4.347 0.340 0.000 18 923432 1818 1990 173 1.001 0.307 0.368 4.601 0.334 0.008 19 923441 1825 1990 166 1.000 0.216 0.775 4.765 0.233 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 923442 1825 1986 162 1.000 0.272 0.429 3.711 0.307 0.001 21 923451 1835 1990 156 1.000 0.275 0.883 5.266 0.289 -0.013 22 923452 1817 1990 174 1.000 0.270 0.402 4.022 0.296 -0.006 23 923461 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.266 -0.027 3.608 0.303 -0.001 24 923462 1819 1990 172 1.000 0.225 -0.031 2.664 0.266 -0.004 25 923471 1717 1990 274 1.000 0.341 0.882 5.099 0.366 0.001 26 923472 1730 1990 261 1.000 0.317 0.665 3.940 0.362 -0.001 27 923481 1720 1924 205 1.000 0.336 0.431 3.923 0.377 -0.001 28 923482 1719 1990 272 1.000 0.375 0.339 3.197 0.432 0.007 29 923491 1806 1990 185 1.001 0.322 0.353 3.233 0.354 -0.006 30 923492 1797 1990 194 1.002 0.317 0.271 3.167 0.362 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 204 1.000 0.288 0.480 4.427 0.321 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.002 0.042 0.412 1.966 0.046 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.278 0.385 3.931 0.324 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.000 0.054 0.595 1.414 0.065 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.216 -0.114 2.664 0.233 -0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.266 0.180 3.247 0.289 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.000 0.320 0.775 4.661 0.354 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 457 1.010 0.375 1.702 11.664 0.432 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.385 0.106 0.005 0.289 4.166 0.060 0.838 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.060 SERIES 923412 AND 923452 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.838 SERIES 923491 AND 923492 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 10. 15. 91. 253. 378. 435. 406. 378. RBAR 0.396 0.499 0.382 0.432 0.441 0.406 0.405 0.392 SDEV 0.117 0.111 0.150 0.122 0.126 0.129 0.137 0.146 SERR 0.037 0.029 0.016 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.855 0.937 0.930 0.954 0.959 0.953 0.953 0.949 NSS 9.0 14.8 21.4 27.4 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1717 2230 514 1.001 0.276 0.425 5.356 0.315 -0.083 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.067 0.030 0.084 105 409 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.59 1.00 1.08 1.67 7.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.083 -0.050 0.039 -0.004 -0.020 -0.030 0.122 0.008 0.058 0.027 PACF -0.083 -0.057 0.030 -0.001 -0.017 -0.035 0.116 0.027 0.077 0.033 95% C.L. 0.088 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.089 0.091 0.091 0.091 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.083 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.007 -0.013 -0.024 0.124 0.027 0.065 0.027 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.007 -0.013 -0.024 0.124 0.027 0.066 0.027 95% C.L. 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.090 0.090 0.090 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1717 2230 514 1.001 0.345 0.292 2.669 0.246 0.589 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.588 0.394 0.364 0.294 0.229 0.216 0.256 0.209 0.191 0.147 PACF 0.588 0.074 0.162 0.016 0.013 0.051 0.118 -0.021 0.039 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.088 0.115 0.125 0.133 0.138 0.141 0.143 0.147 0.149 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.367 0.533 -0.015 0.163 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.39 MINUTES