RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS080E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS080E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 945 1 Novoja Rieka WIDTH_EARLY LAGM - 945 2 Russia Dahurian larch 70 7227-10145 1624 1990 - 945 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 945011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 945021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 945051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 33 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 945071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 88 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 945101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 32 IN 2 GAPS / 1699 1708 / 1829 1850 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 945102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 945111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 2 GAPS / 1813 1833 / 1898 1905 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 945112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 50 IN 2 GAPS / 1697 1706 / 1812 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 945121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1817 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 945122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 65 IN 1 GAPS / 1810 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 945011 1887 1990 104 0.167 0.091 0.969 4.761 0.581 0.189 2 945012 1954 1990 37 0.285 0.185 1.341 3.779 0.471 0.506 3 945021 1804 1990 187 0.278 0.158 0.607 3.003 0.473 0.469 4 945022 1708 1990 283 0.235 0.130 0.506 2.832 0.470 0.517 5 945031 1856 1990 135 0.420 0.243 1.132 4.388 0.443 0.529 6 945032 1730 1990 261 0.207 0.158 1.274 4.905 0.504 0.645 7 945041 1827 1990 164 0.273 0.159 1.188 4.508 0.434 0.473 8 945042 1853 1967 115 0.463 0.266 0.960 4.198 0.493 0.402 9 945051 1784 1990 207 0.264 0.130 0.091 2.445 0.430 0.489 10 945052 1780 1990 211 0.278 0.138 0.766 4.231 0.416 0.499 11 945061 1774 1990 217 0.299 0.155 0.751 3.534 0.390 0.640 12 945062 1778 1990 213 0.209 0.111 1.273 5.648 0.442 0.496 13 945071 1744 1990 247 0.199 0.139 1.694 7.492 0.685 0.337 14 945072 1719 1990 272 0.164 0.102 0.923 4.276 0.630 0.324 15 945081 1834 1990 157 0.273 0.160 1.050 4.796 0.462 0.635 16 945082 1833 1990 158 0.284 0.176 0.948 3.996 0.467 0.654 17 945091 1862 1990 129 0.392 0.273 1.207 4.337 0.520 0.595 18 945092 1888 1990 103 0.277 0.160 0.840 3.299 0.452 0.572 19 945101 1659 1990 332 0.170 0.124 1.547 6.297 0.530 0.699 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 945102 1763 1990 228 0.229 0.153 0.637 2.874 0.442 0.736 21 945111 1712 1990 279 0.165 0.122 1.257 5.023 0.612 0.495 22 945112 1624 1990 367 0.188 0.116 1.225 5.097 0.524 0.560 23 945121 1733 1990 258 0.256 0.161 0.695 3.469 0.532 0.609 24 945122 1640 1990 351 0.267 0.158 0.452 2.525 0.483 0.630 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1624 TO 1990 367 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 194 0.260 0.157 0.972 4.238 0.495 0.529 STANDARD DEVIATION 72 0.078 0.046 0.370 1.199 0.072 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 196 0.265 0.156 0.964 4.254 0.472 0.523 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 109 0.078 0.034 0.518 1.466 0.085 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 36 0.164 0.091 0.091 2.445 0.390 0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.203 0.127 0.723 3.384 0.443 0.481 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 255 0.281 0.161 1.241 4.850 0.527 0.633 MAXIMUM VALUE 317 0.463 0.273 1.694 7.492 0.685 0.736 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.470 0.199 0.012 -0.843 3.765 -0.258 0.949 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.258 SERIES 945041 AND 945102 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.949 SERIES 945081 AND 945082 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 43.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. CORR 1. 3. 3. 21. 36. 78. 105. 120. 171. 210. RBAR 0.026 0.242 0.580 0.543 0.560 0.622 0.639 0.681 0.637 0.706 SDEV 0.000 0.248 0.105 0.154 0.131 0.122 0.157 0.155 0.206 0.135 SERR 0.000 0.143 0.061 0.034 0.022 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.009 EPS 0.072 0.562 0.902 0.916 0.938 0.960 0.967 0.976 0.974 0.982 NSS 2.9 4.0 6.7 9.2 11.9 14.5 16.5 19.2 21.5 22.7 YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 253. 231. RBAR 0.609 0.412 SDEV 0.144 0.205 SERR 0.009 0.013 EPS 0.973 0.942 NSS 23.0 23.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1624 1990 367 0.207 0.105 0.737 3.836 0.431 0.484 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.635 0.348 0.025 111 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.73 1.00 1.11 1.83 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 212. 120. 37. 146. 266. 367. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.483 0.447 0.335 0.284 0.245 0.191 0.151 0.157 0.091 0.162 PACF 0.483 0.278 0.064 0.040 0.039 -0.005 -0.012 0.049 -0.042 0.105 95% C.L. 0.104 0.126 0.143 0.151 0.157 0.161 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.167 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.296 0.349 0.278 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 945011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086337 0.11827181 2 945012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00458985 0.19765766 3 945021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089115 0.19459349 4 945022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039750 0.17846628 5 945031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00311150 0.20849198 6 945032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136868 0.02748453 7 945041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203632 0.44080129 8 945042 1 0.68003839 0.09807474 0.00000000 0.40609336 9 945051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039191 0.21771179 10 945052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008980 0.26891673 11 945061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065025 0.22806324 12 945062 1 0.18657072 0.00494941 0.00000000 0.09353420 13 945071 1 0.61696744 0.18538384 0.00000000 0.16756643 14 945072 1 0.12047824 0.01721178 0.00000000 0.13869616 15 945081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00172291 0.13694757 16 945082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210285 0.11681045 17 945091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012500 0.40006298 18 945092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001768 0.27577955 19 945101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039864 0.09413078 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 945102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026298 0.18910392 21 945111 1 0.25093383 0.03060782 0.00000000 0.12705801 22 945112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009692 0.15929687 23 945121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078380 0.12664805 24 945122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082430 0.11487461 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 945011 1887 1990 104 1.000 0.556 1.502 8.264 0.582 0.145 2 945012 1954 1990 37 1.003 0.610 0.968 2.708 0.459 0.464 3 945021 1804 1990 187 0.998 0.556 0.712 3.107 0.470 0.453 4 945022 1708 1990 283 1.002 0.542 0.593 3.560 0.468 0.463 5 945031 1856 1990 135 1.004 0.549 1.921 9.400 0.440 0.339 6 945032 1730 1990 261 1.062 0.696 1.871 8.954 0.503 0.456 7 945041 1827 1990 164 1.002 0.434 0.867 3.769 0.431 0.123 8 945042 1853 1967 115 1.000 0.501 0.379 2.856 0.489 0.299 9 945051 1784 1990 207 1.001 0.496 0.453 3.125 0.414 0.497 10 945052 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.501 0.865 4.627 0.414 0.496 11 945061 1774 1990 217 1.002 0.514 0.969 4.659 0.388 0.592 12 945062 1778 1990 213 1.000 0.471 0.727 4.578 0.440 0.415 13 945071 1744 1990 247 1.000 0.597 0.678 3.150 0.628 0.319 14 945072 1719 1990 272 0.999 0.586 0.548 2.902 0.627 0.215 15 945081 1834 1990 157 0.996 0.541 1.136 4.538 0.459 0.530 16 945082 1833 1990 158 1.002 0.561 1.121 4.830 0.464 0.503 17 945091 1862 1990 129 1.000 0.698 1.226 4.399 0.516 0.594 18 945092 1888 1990 103 1.000 0.579 0.839 3.298 0.448 0.566 19 945101 1659 1990 332 1.015 0.768 1.504 5.615 0.520 0.713 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 945102 1763 1990 228 1.003 0.690 0.850 3.241 0.443 0.739 21 945111 1712 1990 279 0.999 0.670 0.684 2.903 0.598 0.440 22 945112 1624 1990 367 1.001 0.639 1.456 6.390 0.509 0.571 23 945121 1733 1990 258 1.022 0.791 1.851 10.672 0.526 0.637 24 945122 1640 1990 351 1.001 0.519 0.667 3.818 0.463 0.438 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 1.005 0.586 1.016 4.807 0.488 0.459 STANDARD DEVIATION 83 0.013 0.093 0.454 2.288 0.066 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.001 0.559 0.866 4.108 0.466 0.463 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 120 0.003 0.138 0.660 2.085 0.076 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.996 0.434 0.379 2.708 0.388 0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.516 0.681 3.137 0.442 0.377 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 1.002 0.654 1.341 5.222 0.518 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 367 1.062 0.791 1.921 10.672 0.628 0.739 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 945011 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 945012 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 945021 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 945022 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 945031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 945032 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 945041 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 945042 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 945051 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 945052 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 945061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 945062 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 945071 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 945072 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 945081 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 945082 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 945091 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 945092 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 945101 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 945102 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 945111 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 945112 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 945121 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 945122 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 945011 1887 1990 104 0.996 0.542 1.598 9.425 0.582 0.082 2 945012 1954 1990 37 0.965 0.473 0.717 2.692 0.461 0.185 3 945021 1804 1990 187 0.991 0.530 0.660 3.060 0.470 0.418 4 945022 1708 1990 283 0.991 0.522 0.688 3.913 0.468 0.421 5 945031 1856 1990 135 0.993 0.510 1.864 9.902 0.440 0.283 6 945032 1730 1990 261 0.993 0.558 0.893 4.174 0.503 0.371 7 945041 1827 1990 164 0.998 0.426 0.874 3.779 0.431 0.105 8 945042 1853 1967 115 0.989 0.447 0.296 2.845 0.489 0.112 9 945051 1784 1990 207 0.993 0.445 0.109 2.606 0.413 0.363 10 945052 1780 1990 211 0.994 0.463 0.533 3.343 0.415 0.433 11 945061 1774 1990 217 0.988 0.482 1.170 6.102 0.388 0.532 12 945062 1778 1990 213 0.997 0.454 0.610 4.402 0.440 0.383 13 945071 1744 1990 247 0.988 0.553 0.478 2.877 0.628 0.235 14 945072 1719 1990 272 0.995 0.574 0.509 2.758 0.627 0.184 15 945081 1834 1990 157 0.992 0.517 1.107 4.620 0.459 0.488 16 945082 1833 1990 158 0.991 0.529 1.009 4.565 0.464 0.466 17 945091 1862 1990 129 0.987 0.558 0.888 3.788 0.515 0.283 18 945092 1888 1990 103 0.987 0.456 0.747 3.615 0.449 0.153 19 945101 1659 1990 332 0.978 0.626 0.953 3.702 0.520 0.598 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 945102 1763 1990 228 0.967 0.454 0.510 3.203 0.444 0.425 21 945111 1712 1990 279 0.982 0.625 0.617 2.910 0.598 0.398 22 945112 1624 1990 367 0.992 0.549 0.862 3.971 0.509 0.481 23 945121 1733 1990 258 0.945 0.553 0.905 4.066 0.526 0.451 24 945122 1640 1990 351 0.991 0.492 0.610 3.876 0.463 0.393 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.987 0.514 0.800 4.175 0.488 0.344 STANDARD DEVIATION 83 0.012 0.056 0.380 1.867 0.066 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 0.991 0.519 0.732 3.784 0.466 0.388 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 120 0.006 0.094 0.358 1.304 0.075 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 37 0.945 0.426 0.109 2.606 0.388 0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.987 0.459 0.571 2.985 0.442 0.210 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 0.993 0.553 0.929 4.288 0.517 0.442 MAXIMUM VALUE 367 0.998 0.626 1.864 9.902 0.628 0.598 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.565 0.112 0.007 -0.224 3.318 0.220 0.946 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.220 SERIES 945012 AND 945081 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.946 SERIES 945081 AND 945082 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 43.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. CORR 1. 3. 3. 21. 36. 78. 105. 120. 171. 210. RBAR 0.191 0.274 0.594 0.541 0.552 0.627 0.675 0.692 0.665 0.712 SDEV 0.000 0.233 0.083 0.151 0.122 0.110 0.133 0.145 0.186 0.090 SERR 0.000 0.134 0.048 0.033 0.020 0.012 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.006 EPS 0.408 0.603 0.907 0.915 0.936 0.961 0.972 0.977 0.977 0.982 NSS 2.9 4.0 6.7 9.2 11.9 14.5 16.5 19.2 21.5 22.7 YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 253. 231. RBAR 0.618 0.457 SDEV 0.126 0.163 SERR 0.008 0.011 EPS 0.974 0.951 NSS 23.0 23.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1624 1990 367 0.961 0.436 0.547 3.491 0.435 0.353 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.456 0.204 0.130 91 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.63 1.01 1.08 1.71 6.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.352 0.257 0.146 0.112 0.042 -0.034 -0.071 -0.070 -0.140 -0.050 PACF 0.352 0.152 0.019 0.029 -0.029 -0.074 -0.056 -0.019 -0.098 0.054 95% C.L. 0.104 0.117 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.145 0.299 0.152 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.277 0.190 0.173 0.070 0.043 -0.024 -0.055 -0.032 -0.162 -0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.277 2 0.243 0.123 3 0.230 0.098 0.102 4 0.232 0.100 0.106 -0.019 5 0.232 0.101 0.107 -0.017 -0.006 6 0.232 0.100 0.113 -0.011 0.007 -0.060 7 0.229 0.100 0.113 -0.006 0.012 -0.049 -0.050 8 0.229 0.100 0.113 -0.006 0.013 -0.048 -0.049 -0.001 9 0.228 0.093 0.106 -0.004 0.012 -0.032 -0.035 0.032 -0.145 10 0.241 0.090 0.109 -0.001 0.011 -0.032 -0.044 0.024 -0.165 0.087 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3515.32 3488.06 3484.46 3482.63 3484.50 3486.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3487.16 3488.26 3490.25 3484.50 3483.69 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.230 0.098 0.102 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.01 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.12 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.230 0.151 0.159 0.075 0.048 0.035 0.020 0.013 0.009 0.0053 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 945011 3 0.018 0.073 0.081 0.030 2 945012 3 0.125 0.159 0.082 0.107 3 945021 3 0.220 0.348 0.042 0.198 4 945022 3 0.244 0.282 0.224 0.115 5 945031 3 0.107 0.281 0.005 0.049 6 945032 3 0.174 0.314 0.070 0.133 7 945041 3 0.039 0.104 -0.010 0.158 8 945042 3 0.022 0.123 -0.054 0.083 9 945051 3 0.155 0.300 0.131 0.060 10 945052 3 0.258 0.329 0.299 -0.059 11 945061 3 0.292 0.507 -0.006 0.093 12 945062 3 0.158 0.361 0.024 0.074 13 945071 3 0.078 0.194 0.144 0.034 14 945072 3 0.052 0.159 0.074 0.094 15 945081 3 0.257 0.492 -0.050 0.117 16 945082 3 0.229 0.432 0.022 0.094 17 945091 3 0.144 0.202 0.128 0.196 18 945092 3 0.043 0.127 0.113 0.065 19 945101 3 0.398 0.461 0.126 0.130 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 945102 3 0.199 0.370 0.069 0.099 21 945111 3 0.196 0.311 0.195 0.034 22 945112 3 0.259 0.394 0.186 -0.002 23 945121 3 0.221 0.387 0.101 0.065 24 945122 3 0.185 0.318 0.183 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.170 0.293 0.091 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.096 0.126 0.088 0.060 MEDIAN 3 0.179 0.313 0.081 0.088 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.144 0.202 0.115 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.018 0.073 -0.054 -0.059 LOWER HINGE 3 0.093 0.177 0.023 0.042 UPPER HINGE 3 0.236 0.379 0.138 0.116 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.398 0.507 0.299 0.198 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 945011 1887 1990 104 1.000 0.538 1.679 9.930 0.587 0.001 2 945012 1954 1990 37 1.000 0.459 0.845 2.949 0.480 0.021 3 945021 1804 1990 187 1.003 0.462 0.413 3.252 0.521 0.018 4 945022 1708 1990 283 1.000 0.453 0.793 4.553 0.498 -0.001 5 945031 1856 1990 135 1.000 0.486 1.853 10.680 0.494 0.008 6 945032 1730 1990 261 1.001 0.507 0.785 4.027 0.564 0.016 7 945041 1827 1990 164 1.000 0.419 0.856 3.896 0.459 -0.009 8 945042 1853 1967 115 1.001 0.440 0.267 2.841 0.523 0.001 9 945051 1784 1990 207 1.001 0.406 0.046 3.004 0.468 0.007 10 945052 1780 1990 211 1.001 0.396 0.419 3.659 0.448 -0.005 11 945061 1774 1990 217 1.001 0.404 0.593 4.886 0.462 0.005 12 945062 1778 1990 213 1.001 0.416 0.328 4.048 0.501 0.006 13 945071 1744 1990 247 1.002 0.528 0.385 2.923 0.665 -0.001 14 945072 1719 1990 272 1.001 0.558 0.468 2.804 0.673 -0.003 15 945081 1834 1990 157 1.000 0.444 0.798 4.426 0.547 -0.005 16 945082 1833 1990 158 1.002 0.460 0.866 4.522 0.531 -0.003 17 945091 1862 1990 129 1.000 0.515 0.807 4.170 0.533 -0.005 18 945092 1888 1990 103 1.000 0.447 0.838 4.099 0.467 -0.002 19 945101 1659 1990 332 1.001 0.487 0.659 3.560 0.587 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 945102 1763 1990 228 1.000 0.407 0.368 3.187 0.482 0.000 21 945111 1712 1990 279 1.003 0.555 0.474 2.873 0.656 0.001 22 945112 1624 1990 367 1.002 0.467 0.400 3.224 0.569 0.003 23 945121 1733 1990 258 1.001 0.486 0.896 4.317 0.526 0.003 24 945122 1640 1990 351 1.000 0.444 0.622 4.285 0.502 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 1.001 0.466 0.686 4.255 0.531 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 83 0.001 0.048 0.406 1.972 0.065 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 212 1.001 0.460 0.640 3.962 0.522 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 120 0.001 0.068 0.435 1.276 0.086 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 37 1.000 0.396 0.046 2.804 0.448 -0.010 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.429 0.407 3.095 0.481 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 266 1.001 0.497 0.842 4.371 0.567 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 367 1.003 0.558 1.853 10.680 0.673 0.021 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 275 0.606 0.108 0.006 -0.567 4.031 0.181 0.949 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.181 SERIES 945012 AND 945081 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.949 SERIES 945081 AND 945082 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.64 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 43.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. CORR 1. 3. 3. 21. 36. 78. 105. 120. 171. 210. RBAR 0.242 0.376 0.641 0.616 0.582 0.604 0.710 0.712 0.677 0.744 SDEV 0.000 0.279 0.083 0.116 0.111 0.122 0.114 0.123 0.137 0.085 SERR 0.000 0.161 0.048 0.025 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.006 EPS 0.482 0.708 0.922 0.936 0.943 0.957 0.976 0.979 0.978 0.985 NSS 2.9 4.0 6.7 9.2 11.9 14.5 16.5 19.2 21.5 22.7 YEAR 1930. 1955. CORR 253. 231. RBAR 0.661 0.488 SDEV 0.108 0.142 SERR 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.978 0.957 NSS 23.0 23.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1624 1990 367 0.984 0.396 0.401 3.361 0.469 -0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.355 0.135 0.125 111 256 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.55 1.00 1.10 1.65 62.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.003 -0.043 0.029 0.008 -0.046 -0.070 -0.014 -0.122 0.014 PACF -0.019 0.002 -0.042 0.028 0.010 -0.048 -0.070 -0.017 -0.128 0.005 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.107 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.025 0.008 -0.055 -0.070 -0.018 -0.123 0.008 PACF 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.025 0.008 -0.055 -0.070 -0.019 -0.125 0.010 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.107 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.001 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1624 1990 367 0.985 0.416 0.563 3.506 0.414 0.275 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.274 0.183 0.158 0.082 0.028 -0.054 -0.084 -0.064 -0.136 -0.039 PACF 0.274 0.117 0.089 0.004 -0.025 -0.086 -0.068 -0.015 -0.093 0.050 95% C.L. 0.104 0.112 0.115 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.095 0.232 0.096 0.090 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES