RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS082E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS082E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 949 1 Yevoyakha river WIDTH_EARLY LASI - 949 2 Russia Siberian larch 30 6605-7741 1671 1990 - 949 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 949291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1709 1715 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 949292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1862 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 949211 1714 1990 277 0.570 0.320 1.124 4.804 0.366 0.687 2 949212 1738 1990 253 0.575 0.295 0.739 3.939 0.357 0.644 3 949221 1849 1990 142 0.628 0.425 1.631 6.368 0.450 0.667 4 949222 1853 1990 138 0.630 0.369 0.905 4.033 0.455 0.549 5 949231 1851 1990 140 0.638 0.308 1.049 4.691 0.360 0.583 6 949232 1860 1990 131 0.620 0.342 1.957 8.356 0.372 0.578 7 949241 1847 1990 144 0.811 0.393 1.090 4.707 0.336 0.663 8 949242 1852 1990 139 0.743 0.321 0.848 3.905 0.318 0.590 9 949251 1786 1990 205 0.422 0.245 0.699 2.673 0.388 0.589 10 949252 1790 1917 128 0.508 0.290 0.659 3.174 0.498 0.470 11 949261 1854 1990 137 0.490 0.336 2.016 8.667 0.404 0.556 12 949262 1852 1990 139 0.581 0.458 2.116 7.697 0.383 0.651 13 949272 1844 1990 147 0.444 0.282 1.048 3.557 0.391 0.644 14 949281 1872 1990 119 0.375 0.247 0.811 2.600 0.356 0.755 15 949282 1855 1990 136 0.371 0.251 0.979 2.965 0.399 0.763 16 949291 1671 1990 320 0.260 0.160 1.008 4.094 0.434 0.577 17 949292 1681 1990 310 0.231 0.161 1.864 6.778 0.445 0.668 18 949301 1870 1990 121 0.463 0.211 0.115 2.269 0.354 0.610 19 949302 1875 1990 116 0.473 0.277 0.760 3.207 0.425 0.651 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 949311 1850 1990 141 0.449 0.385 1.406 4.393 0.443 0.738 21 949312 1839 1990 152 0.358 0.296 1.527 4.599 0.427 0.804 22 949321 1864 1990 127 0.710 0.367 0.140 2.564 0.428 0.595 23 949322 1889 1990 102 0.755 0.321 0.179 2.659 0.358 0.537 24 949331 1861 1990 130 0.570 0.302 0.682 3.508 0.386 0.663 25 949332 1872 1990 119 0.610 0.260 0.042 2.385 0.395 0.498 26 949341 1847 1990 144 0.384 0.258 0.922 3.055 0.392 0.786 27 949342 1847 1990 144 0.393 0.245 1.274 4.709 0.415 0.633 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1671 TO 1990 320 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.521 0.301 1.022 4.309 0.398 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.149 0.071 0.572 1.805 0.042 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.508 0.296 0.979 3.939 0.392 0.644 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.217 0.085 0.621 1.698 0.064 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 102 0.231 0.160 0.042 2.269 0.318 0.470 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 129 0.407 0.254 0.719 3.010 0.363 0.581 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 0.624 0.339 1.340 4.708 0.427 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 313 0.811 0.458 2.116 8.667 0.498 0.804 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.465 0.217 0.012 -0.447 3.079 -0.180 0.934 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 949272 AND 949321 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.934 SERIES 949281 AND 949282 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 15. 15. 171. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.748 0.339 0.470 0.690 0.587 0.576 0.626 0.520 0.481 0.540 SDEV 0.000 0.270 0.168 0.114 0.128 0.157 0.192 0.158 0.190 0.155 SERR 0.000 0.156 0.069 0.046 0.033 0.040 0.015 0.009 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.904 0.663 0.806 0.927 0.914 0.955 0.976 0.966 0.961 0.968 NSS 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.7 7.5 15.7 24.5 26.6 26.3 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1990 320 0.456 0.196 0.599 3.292 0.346 0.538 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.615 0.438 0.025 56 264 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 1.06 1.00 1.07 2.13 96.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 139. 16. 102. 129. 146. 320. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.537 0.554 0.403 0.326 0.336 0.242 0.221 0.151 0.119 0.061 PACF 0.537 0.374 0.027 -0.036 0.122 -0.019 -0.024 -0.041 -0.012 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.112 0.140 0.165 0.177 0.185 0.192 0.196 0.199 0.200 0.201 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.391 0.336 0.377 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 949211 1 0.82726413 0.05558343 0.00000000 0.51785839 2 949212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094826 0.45443252 3 949221 1 1.61068487 0.07470278 0.00000000 0.48137230 4 949222 1 0.89439648 0.06349251 0.00000000 0.53114462 5 949231 1 0.45771948 0.05299971 0.00000000 0.57768410 6 949232 1 0.72766757 0.06311866 0.00000000 0.53507239 7 949241 1 1.31022608 0.07228652 0.00000000 0.68973982 8 949242 1 1.16064584 0.12750553 0.00000000 0.68183708 9 949251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00283519 0.71397561 10 949252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00342892 0.72882134 11 949261 1 0.71543062 0.03987597 0.00000000 0.36254704 12 949262 1 1.28145111 0.03849282 0.00000000 0.34713489 13 949272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00453891 0.78036904 14 949281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00431228 0.63369465 15 949282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00270784 0.55651635 16 949291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00125211 0.46716842 17 949292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058457 0.32131699 18 949301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00150975 0.37121075 19 949302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00342006 0.27251273 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 949311 1 1.19177902 0.02012904 0.00000000 0.05737490 21 949312 1 0.95709163 0.02876403 0.00000000 0.14458153 22 949321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00594037 0.32965878 23 949322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00412607 0.54221314 24 949331 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00284797 0.38338104 25 949332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00279526 0.44228458 26 949341 1 0.83935016 0.09571796 0.00000000 0.32579288 27 949342 1 0.63771588 0.07009539 0.00000000 0.33172080 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 949211 1714 1990 277 0.999 0.500 0.548 2.807 0.365 0.630 2 949212 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.515 0.894 4.299 0.356 0.620 3 949221 1849 1990 142 1.000 0.501 0.779 3.623 0.446 0.383 4 949222 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.524 0.619 3.148 0.453 0.437 5 949231 1851 1990 140 1.000 0.449 0.770 3.984 0.358 0.532 6 949232 1860 1990 131 1.000 0.444 0.764 3.896 0.370 0.505 7 949241 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.371 -0.086 2.549 0.334 0.429 8 949242 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.368 0.192 2.714 0.315 0.478 9 949251 1786 1990 205 1.004 0.411 0.467 3.153 0.387 0.293 10 949252 1790 1917 128 0.988 0.519 0.663 3.068 0.494 0.375 11 949261 1854 1990 137 1.000 0.537 1.040 4.606 0.402 0.445 12 949262 1852 1990 139 1.003 0.513 0.898 3.665 0.380 0.508 13 949272 1844 1990 147 1.009 0.427 0.418 2.568 0.389 0.382 14 949281 1872 1990 119 0.980 0.471 0.846 3.287 0.353 0.569 15 949282 1855 1990 136 0.983 0.565 1.002 3.293 0.395 0.689 16 949291 1671 1990 320 1.032 0.532 1.565 7.880 0.427 0.520 17 949292 1681 1990 310 0.997 0.610 1.550 6.028 0.442 0.609 18 949301 1870 1990 121 1.001 0.450 0.300 3.071 0.351 0.547 19 949302 1875 1990 116 1.015 0.596 1.803 10.673 0.421 0.480 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 949311 1850 1990 141 0.995 0.469 0.585 3.972 0.440 0.407 21 949312 1839 1990 152 1.005 0.476 0.645 3.981 0.425 0.453 22 949321 1864 1990 127 0.991 0.455 -0.013 2.580 0.424 0.417 23 949322 1889 1990 102 1.000 0.406 0.222 2.761 0.355 0.454 24 949331 1861 1990 130 1.003 0.511 0.631 3.209 0.383 0.607 25 949332 1872 1990 119 1.000 0.418 0.299 3.021 0.392 0.395 26 949341 1847 1990 144 0.999 0.627 1.254 4.836 0.389 0.757 27 949342 1847 1990 144 0.999 0.566 1.426 5.849 0.413 0.579 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.490 0.744 4.019 0.395 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.009 0.069 0.477 1.809 0.041 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.500 0.663 3.293 0.389 0.480 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.003 0.081 0.508 1.097 0.064 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 102 0.980 0.368 -0.086 2.549 0.315 0.293 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 129 0.999 0.447 0.442 3.045 0.361 0.423 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.002 0.528 0.950 4.142 0.425 0.574 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 1.032 0.627 1.803 10.673 0.494 0.757 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 949211 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 949212 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 949221 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 949222 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 949231 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 949232 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 949241 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 949242 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 949251 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 949252 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 949261 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 949262 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 949272 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 949281 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 949282 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 949291 -67 214 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 949292 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 949301 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 949302 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 949311 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 949312 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 949321 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 949322 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 949331 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 949332 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 949341 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 949342 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 949211 1714 1990 277 0.997 0.491 0.565 2.923 0.364 0.625 2 949212 1738 1990 253 0.992 0.497 0.908 4.455 0.356 0.601 3 949221 1849 1990 142 0.999 0.492 0.719 3.478 0.446 0.386 4 949222 1853 1990 138 0.997 0.509 0.531 3.063 0.452 0.407 5 949231 1851 1990 140 0.998 0.431 0.864 4.467 0.358 0.459 6 949232 1860 1990 131 0.999 0.444 0.908 4.384 0.370 0.486 7 949241 1847 1990 144 0.998 0.362 -0.036 2.659 0.334 0.376 8 949242 1852 1990 139 0.998 0.363 0.222 2.814 0.315 0.465 9 949251 1786 1990 205 0.997 0.394 0.357 2.971 0.387 0.259 10 949252 1790 1917 128 0.993 0.455 0.356 2.714 0.494 0.142 11 949261 1854 1990 137 0.990 0.500 0.902 4.302 0.403 0.375 12 949262 1852 1990 139 0.993 0.483 0.943 4.194 0.379 0.451 13 949272 1844 1990 147 0.994 0.387 0.315 2.698 0.389 0.276 14 949281 1872 1990 119 0.991 0.400 0.263 2.417 0.353 0.418 15 949282 1855 1990 136 0.978 0.400 0.226 2.354 0.396 0.395 16 949291 1671 1990 320 0.996 0.449 0.822 4.543 0.427 0.395 17 949292 1681 1990 310 0.984 0.528 1.028 4.380 0.441 0.504 18 949301 1870 1990 121 0.993 0.426 0.171 2.852 0.350 0.526 19 949302 1875 1990 116 0.994 0.499 0.447 3.098 0.421 0.492 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 949311 1850 1990 141 0.997 0.453 0.423 3.658 0.439 0.374 21 949312 1839 1990 152 0.998 0.462 0.699 4.628 0.426 0.412 22 949321 1864 1990 127 0.996 0.456 0.199 3.091 0.425 0.398 23 949322 1889 1990 102 0.990 0.363 0.152 2.917 0.354 0.329 24 949331 1861 1990 130 0.992 0.473 0.484 3.080 0.383 0.565 25 949332 1872 1990 119 0.998 0.414 0.306 3.014 0.392 0.387 26 949341 1847 1990 144 0.988 0.508 1.004 4.243 0.388 0.591 27 949342 1847 1990 144 0.990 0.521 1.683 7.924 0.413 0.479 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.994 0.450 0.573 3.605 0.395 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.005 0.051 0.380 1.143 0.041 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.994 0.455 0.484 3.091 0.389 0.412 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.006 0.087 0.599 1.456 0.064 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 102 0.978 0.362 -0.036 2.354 0.315 0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 129 0.991 0.407 0.284 2.885 0.361 0.381 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 0.997 0.494 0.883 4.341 0.425 0.489 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 0.999 0.528 1.683 7.924 0.494 0.625 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.582 0.096 0.005 -0.153 3.149 0.308 0.859 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.308 SERIES 949222 AND 949322 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.859 SERIES 949231 AND 949232 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 15. 15. 171. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.704 0.392 0.501 0.647 0.625 0.678 0.672 0.580 0.547 0.588 SDEV 0.000 0.286 0.166 0.149 0.100 0.082 0.095 0.149 0.164 0.131 SERR 0.000 0.165 0.068 0.061 0.026 0.021 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.007 EPS 0.882 0.712 0.824 0.913 0.926 0.971 0.980 0.973 0.969 0.974 NSS 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.7 7.5 15.7 24.5 26.6 26.3 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1990 320 0.973 0.361 0.392 3.432 0.335 0.383 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.461 0.207 0.075 59 261 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.70 1.01 1.10 1.79 192.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.382 0.460 0.279 0.169 0.179 0.045 -0.013 -0.076 -0.084 -0.107 PACF 0.382 0.367 0.038 -0.100 0.054 -0.060 -0.115 -0.076 0.011 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.112 0.127 0.146 0.153 0.155 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.264 0.241 0.370 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.452 0.510 0.211 0.176 0.009 -0.032 -0.162 -0.205 -0.262 -0.337 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.452 2 0.279 0.384 3 0.338 0.427 -0.154 4 0.328 0.455 -0.132 -0.065 5 0.323 0.445 -0.099 -0.041 -0.073 6 0.319 0.442 -0.105 -0.015 -0.054 -0.059 7 0.312 0.436 -0.107 -0.028 0.000 -0.020 -0.122 8 0.299 0.434 -0.107 -0.031 -0.011 0.027 -0.089 -0.107 9 0.291 0.428 -0.105 -0.031 -0.013 0.019 -0.059 -0.086 -0.069 10 0.280 0.413 -0.115 -0.028 -0.015 0.014 -0.077 -0.014 -0.019 -0.169 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2990.56 2919.36 2870.36 2864.65 2865.30 2865.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2866.48 2863.66 2861.97 2862.47 2855.20 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.338 0.427 -0.154 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 33.78 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 151.02 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.338 0.541 0.173 0.237 0.070 0.098 0.027 0.040 0.010 0.0163 0.003 0.007 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 949211 3 0.448 0.469 0.323 -0.077 2 949212 3 0.391 0.474 0.164 0.061 3 949221 3 0.246 0.330 0.331 -0.182 4 949222 3 0.301 0.320 0.412 -0.171 5 949231 3 0.265 0.373 0.270 -0.092 6 949232 3 0.343 0.398 0.385 -0.207 7 949241 3 0.294 0.270 0.402 -0.094 8 949242 3 0.295 0.344 0.329 -0.071 9 949251 3 0.149 0.181 0.289 0.008 10 949252 3 0.131 0.093 0.332 0.006 11 949261 3 0.278 0.274 0.405 -0.108 12 949262 3 0.288 0.344 0.327 -0.090 13 949272 3 0.248 0.166 0.434 -0.020 14 949281 3 0.294 0.268 0.370 -0.004 15 949282 3 0.289 0.240 0.391 0.003 16 949291 3 0.223 0.281 0.266 0.026 17 949292 3 0.428 0.187 0.368 0.229 18 949301 3 0.403 0.452 0.400 -0.243 19 949302 3 0.326 0.430 0.297 -0.153 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 949311 3 0.250 0.296 0.364 -0.135 21 949312 3 0.269 0.285 0.350 -0.034 22 949321 3 0.298 0.239 0.388 0.020 23 949322 3 0.171 0.295 0.238 -0.125 24 949331 3 0.388 0.475 0.334 -0.203 25 949332 3 0.237 0.365 0.273 -0.247 26 949341 3 0.368 0.538 0.176 -0.118 27 949342 3 0.264 0.417 0.207 -0.102 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.292 0.326 0.327 -0.079 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.108 0.072 0.105 MEDIAN 3 0.289 0.320 0.332 -0.092 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.085 0.139 0.106 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.131 0.093 0.164 -0.247 LOWER HINGE 3 0.249 0.269 0.281 -0.144 UPPER HINGE 3 0.334 0.407 0.387 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.448 0.538 0.434 0.229 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 949211 1714 1990 277 1.000 0.364 0.460 3.864 0.416 -0.002 2 949212 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.387 0.762 4.956 0.419 0.007 3 949221 1849 1990 142 1.000 0.427 0.477 3.860 0.487 0.015 4 949222 1853 1990 138 1.000 0.425 0.417 3.979 0.480 0.005 5 949231 1851 1990 140 1.000 0.370 0.406 3.952 0.403 0.004 6 949232 1860 1990 131 1.000 0.359 0.468 3.702 0.404 -0.004 7 949241 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.309 -0.062 3.194 0.349 -0.018 8 949242 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.305 0.154 3.121 0.357 -0.005 9 949251 1786 1990 205 1.001 0.361 0.235 3.370 0.420 -0.004 10 949252 1790 1917 128 1.000 0.425 0.364 2.924 0.490 0.002 11 949261 1854 1990 137 1.002 0.420 0.437 4.943 0.458 0.017 12 949262 1852 1990 139 1.001 0.408 0.690 5.303 0.446 -0.009 13 949272 1844 1990 147 1.000 0.335 0.338 3.217 0.381 -0.001 14 949281 1872 1990 119 1.000 0.336 0.374 3.294 0.369 -0.011 15 949282 1855 1990 136 1.000 0.337 0.078 2.267 0.397 -0.002 16 949291 1671 1990 320 1.000 0.396 0.607 3.759 0.463 0.001 17 949292 1681 1990 310 1.000 0.399 0.455 3.875 0.456 0.008 18 949301 1870 1990 121 1.000 0.326 -0.023 3.170 0.375 -0.005 19 949302 1875 1990 116 1.000 0.405 0.426 2.934 0.460 -0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 949311 1850 1990 141 1.000 0.393 0.280 3.578 0.446 0.006 21 949312 1839 1990 152 1.001 0.391 0.527 4.893 0.431 0.005 22 949321 1864 1990 127 1.000 0.381 0.146 2.749 0.447 -0.004 23 949322 1889 1990 102 1.000 0.331 -0.046 2.693 0.396 0.003 24 949331 1861 1990 130 1.001 0.367 0.552 3.847 0.405 0.010 25 949332 1872 1990 119 1.000 0.360 0.344 3.440 0.430 0.001 26 949341 1847 1990 144 1.003 0.396 0.702 4.317 0.449 0.005 27 949342 1847 1990 144 1.000 0.449 1.162 6.558 0.470 0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.376 0.397 3.769 0.426 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 59 0.001 0.038 0.267 0.928 0.040 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.381 0.417 3.702 0.430 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.054 0.245 0.783 0.057 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 102 1.000 0.305 -0.062 2.267 0.349 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.348 0.257 3.182 0.400 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.402 0.502 3.965 0.457 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 1.003 0.449 1.162 6.558 0.490 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.529 0.080 0.004 0.373 3.972 0.289 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.289 SERIES 949232 AND 949292 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 949231 AND 949232 131 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 40.09 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 3. 6. 6. 15. 15. 171. 300. 325. 325. RBAR 0.658 0.562 0.611 0.599 0.593 0.618 0.582 0.532 0.538 0.545 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.068 0.077 0.098 0.066 0.116 0.123 0.106 0.111 SERR 0.000 0.071 0.028 0.031 0.025 0.017 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.859 0.831 0.880 0.895 0.916 0.962 0.972 0.968 0.968 0.969 NSS 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.7 7.5 15.7 24.5 26.6 26.3 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1990 320 0.990 0.303 0.276 3.992 0.357 -0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.386 0.147 0.066 71 249 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.43 1.00 1.08 1.51 21.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.066 0.039 0.041 -0.072 0.116 -0.009 -0.060 -0.083 -0.038 -0.024 PACF -0.066 0.035 0.046 -0.068 0.105 0.008 -0.065 -0.106 -0.031 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.003 -0.009 -0.058 0.116 0.001 -0.066 -0.092 -0.038 -0.019 PACF 0.003 -0.003 -0.009 -0.058 0.117 -0.001 -0.068 -0.094 -0.024 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.004 0.003 -0.003 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1671 1990 320 0.992 0.367 0.242 2.983 0.324 0.463 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.461 0.487 0.209 0.163 0.096 0.005 -0.084 -0.140 -0.161 -0.161 PACF 0.461 0.348 -0.142 -0.050 0.057 -0.086 -0.141 -0.054 -0.012 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.112 0.134 0.154 0.158 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.326 0.351 0.393 -0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES