RUN: RUSS003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS084E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS084E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 952 1 Kheygiyakha-River WIDTH_EARLY LASI - 952 2 Russia Siberian larch 100 6523-7252 1767 1990 - 952 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 952251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 37 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1938 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 952302 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 70 IN 1 GAPS / 1831 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 952311 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 33 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1869 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 952342 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1827 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 952371 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 952372 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 42 IN 3 GAPS / 1804 1804 / 1815 1825 / 1922 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 952211 1792 1985 194 0.368 0.276 1.776 7.244 0.434 0.725 2 952212 1784 2210 427 0.382 0.316 1.939 7.245 0.377 0.825 3 952231 1791 1990 200 0.668 0.325 0.864 4.942 0.390 0.579 4 952232 1801 1990 190 0.696 0.358 0.737 3.764 0.412 0.566 5 952251 1804 1981 178 0.575 0.311 0.387 2.437 0.424 0.635 6 952252 1788 1990 203 0.550 0.345 0.749 3.222 0.398 0.686 7 952261 1838 1990 153 0.639 0.283 0.887 4.291 0.310 0.615 8 952262 1836 1990 155 0.706 0.320 0.847 3.782 0.300 0.679 9 952271 1776 1990 215 0.398 0.269 1.296 4.934 0.382 0.757 10 952272 1785 1990 206 0.369 0.228 1.149 4.383 0.408 0.694 11 952281 1802 2170 369 0.500 0.218 0.518 3.381 0.372 0.431 12 952291 1803 1990 188 0.635 0.304 0.000 2.536 0.408 0.570 13 952292 1824 1990 167 0.670 0.402 0.965 4.028 0.456 0.587 14 952301 1843 1990 148 0.451 0.254 0.535 2.590 0.483 0.637 15 952302 1810 1990 181 0.277 0.196 1.123 4.296 0.491 0.734 16 952311 1819 1990 172 0.653 0.385 0.735 3.420 0.461 0.642 17 952312 1895 1990 96 0.905 0.406 0.246 2.583 0.387 0.557 18 952321 1793 1990 198 0.363 0.243 1.035 3.797 0.513 0.677 19 952322 1840 1946 107 0.542 0.327 0.831 2.965 0.396 0.689 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 952341 1839 1990 152 0.299 0.168 0.813 3.776 0.431 0.678 21 952342 1811 1990 180 0.360 0.257 1.085 3.712 0.423 0.786 22 952351 1771 1990 220 0.475 0.352 1.407 5.264 0.453 0.791 23 952352 1780 1990 211 0.354 0.241 1.267 5.009 0.514 0.688 24 952361 1771 1990 220 0.579 0.350 1.756 7.674 0.339 0.763 25 952362 1782 1990 209 0.475 0.294 1.364 5.396 0.328 0.821 26 952371 1780 1990 211 0.312 0.198 0.880 3.699 0.436 0.701 27 952372 1767 1990 224 0.371 0.224 1.200 4.895 0.382 0.698 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1767 TO 2210 444 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.503 0.291 0.977 4.269 0.411 0.674 STANDARD DEVIATION 69 0.157 0.064 0.452 1.406 0.056 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 0.475 0.294 0.887 3.797 0.408 0.686 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.269 0.094 0.490 1.538 0.063 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.277 0.168 0.000 2.437 0.300 0.431 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 152 0.368 0.242 0.743 3.400 0.382 0.625 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 207 0.637 0.336 1.233 4.938 0.445 0.729 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 0.905 0.406 1.939 7.674 0.514 0.825 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.531 0.159 0.008 -0.671 3.803 -0.059 0.902 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 952212 AND 952342 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.902 SERIES 952251 AND 952252 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 37.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. CORR 78. 190. 325. 325. 351. 325. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.643 0.584 0.622 0.586 0.565 0.680 -0.082 0.043 0.009 0.077 SDEV 0.101 0.216 0.127 0.137 0.172 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 SERR 0.011 0.016 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.972 0.971 0.977 0.974 0.972 0.983 2.249 0.347 0.017 0.143 NSS 19.3 24.0 26.0 26.5 27.0 26.5 23.8 11.8 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2070. 2095. 2120. 2145. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR -0.025 -0.170 -0.076 0.369 SDEV 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS -0.051 -0.410 -0.165 0.539 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1767 2210 444 0.492 0.236 1.502 7.237 0.291 0.708 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.472 0.321 0.061 73 371 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.66 1.00 1.08 1.74 15.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 42. 96. 170. 211. 427. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.706 0.608 0.478 0.421 0.357 0.345 0.325 0.305 0.298 0.258 PACF 0.706 0.217 -0.024 0.066 0.019 0.081 0.047 0.016 0.048 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.095 0.134 0.157 0.170 0.179 0.185 0.191 0.196 0.200 0.204 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.532 0.548 0.229 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 952211 1 1.13918996 0.08426839 0.00000000 0.30109876 2 952212 1 1.67018259 0.08830915 0.00000000 0.33943769 3 952231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003949 0.66428143 4 952232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00032256 0.66556394 5 952251 1 0.26547822 0.03086553 0.00000000 0.48283154 6 952252 1 1.08343756 0.09197140 0.00000000 0.49494278 7 952261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120220 0.73132783 8 952262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258345 0.50429744 9 952271 1 0.73589104 0.03168431 0.00000000 0.29197878 10 952272 1 1.00725830 0.14331190 0.00000000 0.33695737 11 952281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016113 0.47054318 12 952291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00233467 0.41421381 13 952292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291228 0.42494914 14 952301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00308238 0.22110590 15 952302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060595 0.20916945 16 952311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00343265 0.29565710 17 952312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00362364 0.72956580 18 952321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126703 0.23716249 19 952322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113208 0.48064363 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 952341 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00149931 0.18431596 21 952342 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00355438 0.02668438 22 952351 1 1.25690019 0.09200782 0.00000000 0.41617346 23 952352 1 0.85427409 0.07373950 0.00000000 0.30093446 24 952361 1 1.38367260 0.05846371 0.00000000 0.47440338 25 952362 1 1.26378918 0.09168489 0.00000000 0.41224083 26 952371 1 0.37090626 0.01601558 0.00000000 0.17824450 27 952372 1 0.71371645 0.06601391 0.00000000 0.28193462 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 952211 1792 1985 194 1.001 0.615 1.046 3.886 0.431 0.634 2 952212 1784 2210 427 1.001 0.741 1.815 7.318 0.377 0.770 3 952231 1791 1990 200 1.000 0.487 0.877 4.997 0.388 0.575 4 952232 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.515 0.737 3.704 0.410 0.556 5 952251 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.553 0.674 3.173 0.421 0.642 6 952252 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.591 0.753 3.656 0.395 0.650 7 952261 1838 1990 153 1.000 0.433 0.889 4.312 0.308 0.634 8 952262 1836 1990 155 1.003 0.408 0.240 2.529 0.298 0.593 9 952271 1776 1990 215 1.000 0.550 0.586 3.123 0.380 0.679 10 952272 1785 1990 206 1.000 0.555 0.848 3.800 0.405 0.664 11 952281 1802 2170 369 1.000 0.435 0.549 3.508 0.371 0.423 12 952291 1803 1990 188 0.997 0.484 0.471 3.026 0.406 0.530 13 952292 1824 1990 167 0.998 0.608 1.667 7.048 0.453 0.525 14 952301 1843 1990 148 1.011 0.509 0.518 3.334 0.480 0.430 15 952302 1810 1990 181 1.003 0.619 1.325 6.042 0.452 0.689 16 952311 1819 1990 172 1.013 0.644 2.117 10.550 0.442 0.604 17 952312 1895 1990 96 1.001 0.443 0.364 3.135 0.383 0.517 18 952321 1793 1990 198 1.011 0.705 1.903 9.182 0.511 0.616 19 952322 1840 1946 107 0.999 0.605 0.854 2.972 0.392 0.669 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 952341 1839 1990 152 1.008 0.568 1.215 5.488 0.428 0.584 21 952342 1811 1990 180 1.102 0.910 4.744 32.515 0.418 0.518 22 952351 1771 1990 220 0.999 0.675 1.224 4.786 0.451 0.783 23 952352 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.578 0.583 3.041 0.512 0.603 24 952361 1771 1990 220 1.000 0.435 0.210 2.440 0.337 0.626 25 952362 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.513 0.616 3.034 0.325 0.758 26 952371 1780 1990 211 0.999 0.620 0.951 4.179 0.423 0.732 27 952372 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.585 0.895 3.580 0.368 0.727 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 199 1.005 0.570 1.062 5.495 0.406 0.620 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.020 0.110 0.886 5.760 0.054 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.568 0.854 3.704 0.406 0.626 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 41 0.002 0.119 0.636 2.114 0.058 0.108 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.997 0.408 0.210 2.440 0.298 0.423 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.498 0.584 3.129 0.379 0.566 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 1.002 0.617 1.220 5.242 0.437 0.674 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 1.102 0.910 4.744 32.515 0.512 0.783 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 952211 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 952212 -67 286 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 952231 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 952232 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 952251 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 952252 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 952261 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 952262 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 952271 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 952272 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 952281 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 952291 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 952292 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 952301 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 952302 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 952311 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 952312 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 952321 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 952322 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 952341 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 952342 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 952351 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 952352 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 952361 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 952362 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 952371 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 952372 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 952211 1792 1985 194 0.981 0.530 0.991 4.355 0.431 0.560 2 952212 1784 2210 427 0.976 0.644 1.552 6.248 0.377 0.722 3 952231 1791 1990 200 0.995 0.459 0.504 3.429 0.388 0.542 4 952232 1801 1990 190 0.998 0.503 0.648 3.366 0.410 0.535 5 952251 1804 1981 178 0.992 0.515 0.665 3.520 0.421 0.565 6 952252 1788 1990 203 0.983 0.539 0.839 4.558 0.395 0.596 7 952261 1838 1990 153 0.994 0.404 0.675 3.870 0.308 0.584 8 952262 1836 1990 155 0.991 0.364 0.342 2.860 0.298 0.516 9 952271 1776 1990 215 0.992 0.521 0.539 3.134 0.380 0.642 10 952272 1785 1990 206 0.995 0.502 0.547 3.099 0.405 0.564 11 952281 1802 2170 369 0.998 0.422 0.488 3.475 0.371 0.399 12 952291 1803 1990 188 0.986 0.434 0.439 3.600 0.405 0.440 13 952292 1824 1990 167 0.997 0.590 1.569 6.703 0.452 0.501 14 952301 1843 1990 148 0.994 0.474 0.436 3.255 0.479 0.356 15 952302 1810 1990 181 0.986 0.541 0.912 5.059 0.453 0.620 16 952311 1819 1990 172 0.993 0.532 0.789 3.946 0.442 0.567 17 952312 1895 1990 96 0.993 0.421 0.401 3.306 0.383 0.461 18 952321 1793 1990 198 0.989 0.567 0.597 2.764 0.511 0.482 19 952322 1840 1946 107 0.985 0.521 0.449 2.556 0.391 0.576 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 952341 1839 1990 152 0.993 0.500 0.602 3.582 0.428 0.545 21 952342 1811 1990 180 0.997 0.580 1.801 8.414 0.418 0.455 22 952351 1771 1990 220 0.988 0.529 0.320 2.645 0.450 0.594 23 952352 1780 1990 211 0.995 0.531 0.352 2.727 0.512 0.472 24 952361 1771 1990 220 0.990 0.404 0.210 2.737 0.337 0.555 25 952362 1782 1990 209 0.978 0.445 0.525 2.928 0.325 0.695 26 952371 1780 1990 211 0.969 0.520 0.634 3.528 0.423 0.640 27 952372 1767 1990 224 0.978 0.504 0.987 4.702 0.368 0.637 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 199 0.989 0.500 0.697 3.865 0.406 0.549 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.007 0.064 0.395 1.372 0.054 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.992 0.515 0.597 3.475 0.405 0.560 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 41 0.009 0.080 0.370 1.138 0.058 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.969 0.364 0.210 2.556 0.298 0.356 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 169 0.985 0.452 0.444 3.013 0.379 0.491 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 0.994 0.532 0.814 4.151 0.437 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 0.998 0.644 1.801 8.414 0.512 0.722 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.562 0.105 0.006 -0.452 3.999 0.211 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.211 SERIES 952212 AND 952311 172 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 952251 AND 952252 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 37.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. CORR 78. 190. 325. 325. 351. 325. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.658 0.597 0.646 0.614 0.586 0.639 -0.079 0.003 0.008 0.083 SDEV 0.094 0.205 0.111 0.123 0.162 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 SERR 0.011 0.015 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.974 0.973 0.979 0.977 0.974 0.979 2.339 0.032 0.015 0.153 NSS 19.3 24.0 26.0 26.5 27.0 26.5 23.8 11.8 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2070. 2095. 2120. 2145. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR -0.039 -0.196 -0.026 0.382 SDEV 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS -0.081 -0.487 -0.052 0.553 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1767 2210 444 1.020 0.403 0.535 4.041 0.300 0.593 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.415 0.347 -0.010 93 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.31 1.00 1.09 1.40 7.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.592 0.468 0.271 0.210 0.132 0.124 0.120 0.140 0.165 0.079 PACF 0.592 0.181 -0.099 0.040 -0.003 0.042 0.049 0.051 0.067 -0.118 95% C.L. 0.095 0.124 0.139 0.143 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.150 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.379 0.503 0.230 -0.100 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.586 0.488 0.255 0.134 0.033 0.016 -0.037 -0.009 -0.022 -0.079 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.586 2 0.457 0.220 3 0.491 0.292 -0.156 4 0.480 0.312 -0.122 -0.070 5 0.479 0.310 -0.116 -0.062 -0.017 6 0.480 0.313 -0.111 -0.076 -0.040 0.047 7 0.482 0.311 -0.114 -0.081 -0.025 0.069 -0.047 8 0.484 0.309 -0.114 -0.079 -0.022 0.060 -0.062 0.031 9 0.484 0.309 -0.113 -0.079 -0.022 0.059 -0.061 0.033 -0.005 10 0.483 0.313 -0.121 -0.072 -0.025 0.050 -0.074 0.071 0.054 -0.122 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4339.48 4154.64 4134.52 4125.57 4125.39 4127.26 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4128.28 4129.30 4130.87 4132.86 4128.20 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.480 0.312 -0.122 -0.070 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 39.36 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 164.91 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.480 0.543 0.289 0.180 0.077 0.020 -0.008 -0.020 -0.020 -.0161 -0.011 -0.006 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 952211 4 0.343 0.475 0.222 -0.081 -0.018 2 952212 4 0.569 0.542 0.242 -0.096 0.130 3 952231 4 0.339 0.475 0.224 -0.056 -0.094 4 952232 4 0.301 0.478 0.135 0.011 -0.089 5 952251 4 0.340 0.558 0.099 -0.136 -0.044 6 952252 4 0.365 0.647 -0.078 0.014 -0.051 7 952261 4 0.478 0.365 0.522 -0.011 -0.191 8 952262 4 0.293 0.465 0.132 -0.101 0.114 9 952271 4 0.458 0.525 0.298 -0.074 -0.097 10 952272 4 0.363 0.487 0.209 -0.001 -0.195 11 952281 4 0.215 0.319 0.279 -0.060 -0.069 12 952291 4 0.201 0.435 0.044 -0.061 -0.016 13 952292 4 0.309 0.529 0.082 -0.276 0.039 14 952301 4 0.156 0.311 0.150 -0.014 -0.028 15 952302 4 0.425 0.515 0.243 0.005 -0.142 16 952311 4 0.359 0.443 0.239 -0.011 -0.018 17 952312 4 0.374 0.323 0.449 -0.125 0.004 18 952321 4 0.276 0.401 0.217 0.019 -0.111 19 952322 4 0.398 0.496 0.325 -0.212 -0.021 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 952341 4 0.319 0.460 0.167 -0.006 -0.003 21 952342 4 0.221 0.417 0.074 0.060 -0.049 22 952351 4 0.400 0.464 0.280 -0.049 -0.031 23 952352 4 0.296 0.353 0.299 0.046 -0.155 24 952361 4 0.350 0.455 0.261 -0.097 0.006 25 952362 4 0.505 0.630 0.188 -0.186 0.103 26 952371 4 0.456 0.462 0.264 -0.002 0.026 27 952372 4 0.428 0.565 0.137 -0.112 0.123 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.353 0.466 0.211 -0.060 -0.032 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.096 0.086 0.121 0.080 0.088 MEDIAN 4 0.350 0.465 0.222 -0.056 -0.028 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.114 0.094 0.135 0.097 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.156 0.311 -0.078 -0.276 -0.195 LOWER HINGE 4 0.299 0.426 0.136 -0.099 -0.091 UPPER HINGE 4 0.412 0.520 0.271 -0.002 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.569 0.647 0.522 0.060 0.130 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 952211 1792 1985 194 1.002 0.426 0.446 4.309 0.507 0.002 2 952212 1784 2210 427 1.005 0.409 1.405 8.579 0.416 0.060 3 952231 1791 1990 200 1.000 0.371 0.456 4.061 0.435 -0.012 4 952232 1801 1990 190 1.001 0.417 0.573 4.166 0.474 0.003 5 952251 1804 1981 178 1.001 0.414 0.305 3.059 0.498 0.003 6 952252 1788 1990 203 1.006 0.412 0.527 3.687 0.473 0.015 7 952261 1838 1990 153 1.000 0.292 -0.072 3.552 0.332 0.000 8 952262 1836 1990 155 1.000 0.306 0.338 3.012 0.352 0.005 9 952271 1776 1990 215 1.002 0.378 0.446 4.173 0.426 -0.011 10 952272 1785 1990 206 1.002 0.396 0.358 3.840 0.467 0.008 11 952281 1802 2170 369 1.000 0.374 0.675 3.970 0.409 0.000 12 952291 1803 1990 188 1.000 0.389 0.298 3.934 0.469 0.001 13 952292 1824 1990 167 1.001 0.486 1.292 6.457 0.527 -0.006 14 952301 1843 1990 148 1.001 0.435 0.459 3.393 0.499 0.000 15 952302 1810 1990 181 1.000 0.410 0.445 4.468 0.492 0.004 16 952311 1819 1990 172 1.005 0.407 0.687 4.578 0.473 0.028 17 952312 1895 1990 96 1.000 0.336 0.023 3.090 0.413 -0.001 18 952321 1793 1990 198 1.000 0.480 0.572 3.068 0.565 -0.007 19 952322 1840 1946 107 1.000 0.404 0.868 5.395 0.443 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 952341 1839 1990 152 1.000 0.412 0.571 3.671 0.465 -0.002 21 952342 1811 1990 180 1.002 0.507 2.065 11.553 0.487 -0.001 22 952351 1771 1990 220 1.000 0.411 0.327 3.193 0.475 -0.001 23 952352 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.446 0.331 3.181 0.520 -0.008 24 952361 1771 1990 220 1.000 0.326 0.101 3.230 0.381 0.000 25 952362 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.313 0.578 3.988 0.353 0.001 26 952371 1780 1990 211 1.000 0.384 0.691 4.760 0.438 0.000 27 952372 1767 1990 224 1.000 0.381 0.950 5.308 0.427 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 199 1.001 0.397 0.582 4.432 0.452 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.002 0.052 0.442 1.863 0.056 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.407 0.459 3.970 0.467 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 41 0.002 0.039 0.347 1.212 0.068 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.292 -0.072 3.012 0.332 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.376 0.334 3.311 0.421 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 1.002 0.415 0.681 4.523 0.489 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 1.006 0.507 2.065 11.553 0.565 0.060 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.512 0.087 0.005 0.082 3.848 0.195 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.195 SERIES 952212 AND 952312 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 952251 AND 952252 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 37.49 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. CORR 78. 190. 325. 325. 351. 325. 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.591 0.520 0.542 0.558 0.546 0.544 0.191 0.221 0.208 0.107 SDEV 0.110 0.148 0.125 0.115 0.127 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.007 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.965 0.963 0.969 0.971 0.970 0.969 0.849 0.770 0.344 0.193 NSS 19.3 24.0 26.0 26.5 27.0 26.5 23.8 11.8 2.0 2.0 YEAR 2070. 2095. 2120. 2145. CORR 1. 1. 1. 1. RBAR -0.103 -0.126 0.074 0.247 SDEV 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS -0.229 -0.289 0.138 0.396 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1767 2210 444 1.006 0.297 0.412 4.186 0.327 0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.240 0.166 0.084 74 370 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.30 1.00 1.08 1.38 14.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.033 -0.007 -0.046 -0.021 -0.053 -0.010 -0.023 0.024 0.124 -0.015 PACF 0.033 -0.008 -0.045 -0.018 -0.053 -0.009 -0.025 0.020 0.120 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.049 -0.005 -0.026 0.016 0.121 -0.022 PACF -0.001 -0.003 -0.001 0.001 -0.049 -0.005 -0.027 0.016 0.122 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.002 -0.001 -0.003 -0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1767 2210 444 1.008 0.379 0.231 3.210 0.295 0.579 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.578 0.474 0.229 0.107 0.003 -0.011 -0.011 0.010 0.040 -0.028 PACF 0.578 0.210 -0.170 -0.071 -0.024 0.042 0.033 0.012 0.030 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.095 0.123 0.138 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.386 0.480 0.310 -0.136 -0.072 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES