RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS112E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS112E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 979 1 Yakutsk-Biol.Station WIDTH_EARLY LASI - 979 2 Russia Siberian larch 270 6213-12921 1730 1991 - 979 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 979041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 979111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 979132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1869 1885 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 979142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 0.780 0.354 -0.007 2.638 0.269 0.771 2 979012 1840 1991 152 0.792 0.359 0.289 2.872 0.233 0.759 3 979021 1902 1991 90 0.649 0.232 1.097 4.006 0.216 0.711 4 979022 1888 1991 104 0.790 0.248 0.706 3.209 0.228 0.555 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.693 0.351 0.646 3.523 0.368 0.660 6 979032 1865 1991 127 0.803 0.463 0.966 3.551 0.375 0.676 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.369 0.249 1.015 3.995 0.404 0.751 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.460 0.259 0.838 3.877 0.303 0.811 9 979051 1850 1991 142 0.685 0.400 0.437 2.351 0.339 0.751 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.444 0.238 0.513 2.556 0.279 0.805 11 979071 1810 1991 182 0.437 0.247 1.404 5.016 0.277 0.791 12 979072 1808 1991 184 0.371 0.177 0.662 3.028 0.246 0.775 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.390 0.267 1.327 4.385 0.314 0.807 14 979082 1860 1990 131 0.224 0.133 0.524 2.496 0.344 0.777 15 979101 1803 1991 189 0.546 0.489 1.554 5.081 0.328 0.861 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.534 0.452 1.206 3.834 0.354 0.837 17 979111 1790 1991 202 0.626 0.485 1.167 3.857 0.350 0.830 18 979112 1802 1972 171 0.534 0.361 1.533 4.759 0.313 0.731 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.488 0.349 1.683 7.368 0.277 0.817 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 0.429 0.306 1.624 5.432 0.283 0.802 21 979131 1796 1991 196 0.326 0.339 2.066 6.606 0.412 0.862 22 979132 1788 1991 204 0.289 0.300 1.713 4.967 0.422 0.864 23 979141 1730 1991 262 0.548 0.262 0.796 4.262 0.301 0.686 24 979142 1793 1991 199 0.571 0.255 1.461 5.705 0.262 0.673 25 979151 1815 1991 177 0.597 0.244 0.492 2.247 0.255 0.663 26 979152 1824 1991 168 0.603 0.228 0.620 3.151 0.264 0.604 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1730 TO 1991 262 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.538 0.310 1.013 4.030 0.308 0.755 STANDARD DEVIATION 38 0.162 0.093 0.520 1.312 0.058 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 0.540 0.284 0.991 3.867 0.302 0.773 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 44 0.220 0.112 0.841 1.940 0.086 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.224 0.133 -0.007 2.247 0.216 0.555 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.429 0.247 0.620 3.028 0.264 0.686 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 0.649 0.359 1.461 4.967 0.350 0.811 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.803 0.489 2.066 7.368 0.422 0.864 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.559 0.242 0.013 -0.982 3.614 -0.301 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.301 SERIES 979032 AND 979101 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 979131 AND 979132 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.476 0.581 0.462 0.413 0.441 0.595 0.467 SDEV 0.232 0.187 0.197 0.288 0.196 0.174 0.178 SERR 0.134 0.018 0.016 0.019 0.012 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.919 0.961 0.948 0.944 0.953 0.975 0.957 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.522 0.273 0.912 3.693 0.258 0.824 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.419 0.220 0.094 57 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.36 1.02 1.10 1.47 3.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 180. 54. 90. 142. 196. 262. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.820 0.753 0.690 0.641 0.639 0.652 0.656 0.636 0.624 0.592 PACF 0.820 0.246 0.073 0.049 0.170 0.169 0.097 -0.001 0.049 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.124 0.189 0.231 0.260 0.283 0.305 0.325 0.345 0.362 0.378 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.702 0.611 0.258 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 979011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116427 0.86519825 2 979012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118766 0.88315874 3 979021 1 0.83610451 0.07306473 0.00000000 0.52694440 4 979022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00357783 0.97783607 5 979031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00944004 1.12720883 6 979032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204924 0.93406451 7 979041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217563 0.59973085 8 979042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00314229 0.70692641 9 979051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00587312 1.10542107 10 979052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00504925 0.75230163 11 979071 1 0.77257073 0.02136427 0.00000000 0.24443573 12 979072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00258720 0.61018533 13 979081 1 0.88701987 0.01738708 0.00000000 0.14451608 14 979082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00276816 0.40689725 15 979101 1 1.63341773 0.01609192 0.00000000 0.03917450 16 979102 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 979111 1 1.46094739 0.01397082 0.00000000 0.10110226 18 979112 1 1.23412335 0.02638675 0.00000000 0.26743847 19 979121 1 1.12531114 0.01686772 0.00000000 0.14774784 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 979122 1 1.01122510 0.01651115 0.00000000 0.13796526 21 979131 1 1.39247501 0.03672123 0.00000000 0.13622285 22 979132 1 1.07232606 0.02469002 0.00000000 0.06377676 23 979141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044229 0.48939633 24 979142 1 0.74932849 0.04331592 0.00000000 0.48259303 25 979151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053211 0.54942220 26 979152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039082 0.56947607 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 0.999 0.442 -0.074 2.654 0.268 0.759 2 979012 1840 1991 152 0.999 0.442 0.251 2.898 0.232 0.745 3 979021 1902 1991 90 1.000 0.229 0.272 3.117 0.213 0.341 4 979022 1888 1991 104 0.998 0.271 0.509 3.162 0.226 0.404 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.994 0.369 0.164 2.839 0.365 0.370 6 979032 1865 1991 127 0.998 0.551 0.817 3.229 0.372 0.634 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.989 0.505 0.472 2.984 0.390 0.628 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.986 0.458 1.004 5.010 0.301 0.720 9 979051 1850 1991 142 0.973 0.439 0.608 3.519 0.335 0.574 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.992 0.344 0.419 2.962 0.277 0.527 11 979071 1810 1991 182 1.000 0.340 0.472 3.147 0.274 0.545 12 979072 1808 1991 184 1.006 0.304 0.508 3.339 0.245 0.482 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.997 0.391 0.813 3.913 0.313 0.482 14 979082 1860 1990 131 1.039 0.505 1.483 5.991 0.341 0.532 15 979101 1803 1991 189 1.034 0.471 0.787 3.387 0.326 0.603 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.998 0.396 0.774 4.137 0.352 0.329 17 979111 1790 1991 202 1.002 0.431 0.743 3.592 0.340 0.465 18 979112 1802 1972 171 1.001 0.353 0.234 3.101 0.311 0.406 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.993 0.400 0.747 3.627 0.275 0.608 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 1.000 0.323 0.201 2.577 0.281 0.440 21 979131 1796 1991 196 1.003 0.507 1.214 5.403 0.410 0.431 22 979132 1788 1991 204 1.039 0.489 0.494 2.910 0.410 0.391 23 979141 1730 1991 262 0.999 0.487 0.968 4.685 0.300 0.686 24 979142 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.321 0.173 3.070 0.258 0.508 25 979151 1815 1991 177 1.000 0.407 0.494 2.165 0.254 0.651 26 979152 1824 1991 168 1.000 0.379 0.673 3.246 0.263 0.597 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.001 0.406 0.585 3.487 0.305 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.015 0.081 0.353 0.896 0.056 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.404 0.509 3.196 0.301 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.004 0.127 0.515 0.664 0.079 0.197 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.973 0.229 -0.074 2.165 0.213 0.329 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.997 0.344 0.272 2.962 0.263 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.001 0.471 0.787 3.627 0.341 0.628 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.039 0.551 1.483 5.991 0.410 0.759 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 979011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 979012 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 979021 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 979022 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 979031 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 979032 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 979041 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 979042 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 979051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 979052 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 979071 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 979072 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 979081 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 979082 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 979101 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 979102 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 979111 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 979112 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 979121 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 979122 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 979131 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 979132 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 979141 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 979142 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 979151 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 979152 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 0.990 0.384 0.340 4.443 0.268 0.649 2 979012 1840 1991 152 0.994 0.370 0.346 3.998 0.233 0.646 3 979021 1902 1991 90 0.999 0.222 0.333 3.216 0.213 0.306 4 979022 1888 1991 104 0.997 0.235 0.286 2.723 0.226 0.249 5 979031 1901 1991 91 0.989 0.327 0.104 2.880 0.365 0.190 6 979032 1865 1991 127 0.984 0.402 0.896 3.595 0.369 0.373 7 979041 1806 1991 186 0.993 0.480 0.536 3.588 0.390 0.584 8 979042 1836 1991 156 0.993 0.407 0.706 3.801 0.301 0.632 9 979051 1850 1991 142 0.996 0.379 0.399 3.419 0.334 0.426 10 979052 1871 1991 121 0.996 0.321 0.358 2.956 0.277 0.439 11 979071 1810 1991 182 0.998 0.325 0.303 2.746 0.274 0.506 12 979072 1808 1991 184 0.998 0.292 0.448 3.219 0.245 0.460 13 979081 1792 1991 200 0.992 0.318 0.349 3.203 0.312 0.257 14 979082 1860 1990 131 0.986 0.367 0.656 4.273 0.342 0.347 15 979101 1803 1991 189 0.987 0.387 0.910 4.244 0.327 0.487 16 979102 1807 1991 185 0.998 0.385 0.701 4.006 0.352 0.321 17 979111 1790 1991 202 0.988 0.377 0.663 3.812 0.340 0.324 18 979112 1802 1972 171 0.993 0.313 0.142 2.831 0.311 0.272 19 979121 1806 1991 186 0.993 0.335 0.638 3.496 0.276 0.411 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 0.997 0.305 0.137 2.681 0.281 0.383 21 979131 1796 1991 196 0.995 0.468 0.986 5.045 0.410 0.340 22 979132 1788 1991 204 0.989 0.419 0.277 2.565 0.410 0.258 23 979141 1730 1991 262 0.982 0.405 0.653 4.276 0.300 0.584 24 979142 1793 1991 199 0.998 0.311 0.169 3.374 0.258 0.479 25 979151 1815 1991 177 0.993 0.334 0.664 3.236 0.254 0.501 26 979152 1824 1991 168 0.996 0.325 1.198 6.993 0.263 0.465 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 0.993 0.354 0.508 3.639 0.305 0.419 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.005 0.061 0.286 0.930 0.056 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 0.993 0.351 0.424 3.458 0.301 0.418 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.007 0.069 0.361 1.051 0.079 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.982 0.222 0.104 2.565 0.213 0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.989 0.318 0.303 2.956 0.263 0.321 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 0.997 0.387 0.664 4.006 0.342 0.501 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.999 0.480 1.198 6.993 0.410 0.649 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.444 0.123 0.007 -0.255 3.363 0.053 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.053 SERIES 979032 AND 979101 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 979011 AND 979012 145 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.252 0.438 0.451 0.465 0.466 0.530 0.457 SDEV 0.299 0.183 0.196 0.224 0.168 0.138 0.150 SERR 0.173 0.018 0.016 0.015 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.807 0.932 0.946 0.954 0.957 0.967 0.956 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.967 0.314 0.131 3.068 0.274 0.486 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.104 0.098 98 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.54 1.00 1.06 1.59 20.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.484 0.335 0.186 0.109 0.088 0.093 0.138 0.101 0.031 0.026 PACF 0.484 0.132 -0.024 -0.008 0.035 0.048 0.088 -0.015 -0.072 0.017 95% C.L. 0.124 0.150 0.161 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.169 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.248 0.422 0.130 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.379 0.252 0.120 0.034 -0.015 -0.020 0.081 0.009 -0.113 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.379 2 0.331 0.126 3 0.333 0.131 -0.013 4 0.332 0.136 0.000 -0.040 5 0.331 0.136 0.005 -0.030 -0.032 6 0.331 0.136 0.005 -0.030 -0.032 -0.001 7 0.331 0.140 0.008 -0.030 -0.048 -0.040 0.121 8 0.338 0.138 0.006 -0.032 -0.048 -0.033 0.138 -0.053 9 0.329 0.160 0.000 -0.040 -0.053 -0.032 0.161 0.003 -0.166 10 0.339 0.160 -0.010 -0.038 -0.050 -0.030 0.161 -0.007 -0.186 0.063 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2267.69 2229.03 2226.82 2228.78 2230.35 2232.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2234.08 2232.24 2233.51 2228.23 2229.18 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.331 0.126 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.74 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.68 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.331 0.236 0.120 0.070 0.038 0.021 0.012 0.007 0.004 0.0021 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 979011 2 0.446 0.662 0.007 2 979012 2 0.421 0.610 0.057 3 979021 2 0.101 0.315 -0.026 4 979022 2 0.066 0.237 0.048 5 979031 2 0.079 0.188 0.023 6 979032 2 0.161 0.338 0.107 7 979041 2 0.359 0.589 0.017 8 979042 2 0.407 0.691 -0.091 9 979051 2 0.197 0.462 -0.076 10 979052 2 0.207 0.484 -0.091 11 979071 2 0.261 0.467 0.079 12 979072 2 0.241 0.383 0.169 13 979081 2 0.154 0.184 0.286 14 979082 2 0.145 0.299 0.146 15 979101 2 0.261 0.409 0.164 16 979102 2 0.116 0.287 0.109 17 979111 2 0.168 0.252 0.223 18 979112 2 0.092 0.240 0.122 19 979121 2 0.200 0.334 0.189 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 979122 2 0.150 0.362 0.055 21 979131 2 0.182 0.248 0.273 22 979132 2 0.139 0.192 0.260 23 979141 2 0.373 0.456 0.220 24 979142 2 0.242 0.420 0.124 25 979151 2 0.253 0.508 -0.012 26 979152 2 0.224 0.427 0.086 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.217 0.386 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.146 0.110 MEDIAN 2 0.198 0.373 0.096 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.115 0.214 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.066 0.184 -0.091 LOWER HINGE 2 0.145 0.252 0.017 UPPER HINGE 2 0.261 0.467 0.169 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.446 0.691 0.286 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 979011 1847 1991 145 1.000 0.283 0.027 3.162 0.335 -0.016 2 979012 1840 1991 152 1.000 0.282 0.644 5.139 0.306 -0.002 3 979021 1902 1991 90 1.000 0.211 0.236 2.792 0.247 -0.001 4 979022 1888 1991 104 1.000 0.227 0.194 2.906 0.256 -0.002 5 979031 1901 1991 91 1.000 0.321 0.030 2.822 0.391 -0.003 6 979032 1865 1991 127 1.000 0.370 0.750 3.495 0.416 0.007 7 979041 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.380 0.362 3.564 0.441 -0.008 8 979042 1836 1991 156 1.000 0.314 0.411 3.103 0.355 -0.003 9 979051 1850 1991 142 1.000 0.340 0.670 3.889 0.373 -0.009 10 979052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.286 0.683 3.867 0.311 -0.008 11 979071 1810 1991 182 1.000 0.279 0.357 3.072 0.320 -0.001 12 979072 1808 1991 184 1.000 0.256 0.510 3.872 0.288 -0.016 13 979081 1792 1991 200 1.000 0.294 0.243 2.850 0.340 -0.034 14 979082 1860 1990 131 1.000 0.340 0.495 3.807 0.386 -0.005 15 979101 1803 1991 189 1.000 0.333 0.647 4.086 0.377 -0.008 16 979102 1807 1991 185 1.000 0.362 0.632 4.020 0.391 -0.005 17 979111 1790 1991 202 1.000 0.348 0.776 4.231 0.375 -0.030 18 979112 1802 1972 171 1.000 0.299 0.123 2.783 0.350 -0.007 19 979121 1806 1991 186 1.000 0.300 0.591 4.016 0.318 -0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 979122 1791 1991 201 1.000 0.282 0.140 3.083 0.317 0.001 21 979131 1796 1991 196 1.000 0.423 0.764 5.056 0.456 -0.002 22 979132 1788 1991 204 1.000 0.391 0.199 2.953 0.434 -0.029 23 979141 1730 1991 262 1.000 0.319 0.681 4.641 0.335 0.000 24 979142 1793 1991 199 1.000 0.271 0.262 3.250 0.304 0.004 25 979151 1815 1991 177 1.000 0.289 0.499 4.604 0.307 0.000 26 979152 1824 1991 168 1.000 0.286 0.427 4.795 0.326 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.000 0.311 0.437 3.687 0.348 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 40 0.000 0.049 0.238 0.737 0.054 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.299 0.461 3.686 0.337 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.000 0.059 0.411 1.015 0.075 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.211 0.027 2.783 0.247 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.282 0.236 3.072 0.311 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 196 1.000 0.340 0.647 4.086 0.386 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 1.000 0.423 0.776 5.139 0.456 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.464 0.100 0.006 0.021 2.994 0.197 0.763 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.197 SERIES 979032 AND 979102 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.763 SERIES 979151 AND 979152 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. 1965. CORR 3. 105. 153. 231. 276. 325. 300. RBAR 0.357 0.440 0.433 0.510 0.514 0.506 0.471 SDEV 0.191 0.135 0.142 0.149 0.144 0.135 0.140 SERR 0.110 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.873 0.933 0.942 0.961 0.964 0.964 0.958 NSS 12.4 17.7 21.2 24.0 25.5 26.0 25.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.990 0.261 0.273 3.381 0.289 0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.072 0.097 101 161 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.41 1.01 1.09 1.49 7.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.90 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.029 -0.045 -0.043 -0.029 -0.004 0.074 0.040 -0.009 0.097 PACF 0.032 -0.030 -0.043 -0.042 -0.029 -0.007 0.070 0.032 -0.009 0.106 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.000 -0.042 -0.042 -0.026 -0.005 0.072 0.041 -0.015 0.102 PACF -0.001 0.000 -0.042 -0.042 -0.026 -0.007 0.069 0.038 -0.018 0.108 95% C.L. 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1730 1991 262 0.990 0.281 0.230 3.212 0.258 0.364 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.363 0.226 0.072 0.017 0.009 0.027 0.080 0.064 0.013 0.047 PACF 0.363 0.109 -0.048 -0.020 0.012 0.030 0.072 0.009 -0.042 0.050 95% C.L. 0.124 0.139 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.144 0.324 0.108 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 6.98 MINUTES