RUN: russredo FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS113E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS113E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 980 1 Tirekhtjakh river WIDTH_EARLY LADA - 980 2 Russia Larch 350 6737-13728 1565 1991 - 980 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 980062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1654 1655 / 1693 1693 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 980121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 35 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 980122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 63 IN 1 GAPS / 1851 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 0.204 0.155 1.305 3.678 0.386 0.795 2 980012 1683 1990 308 0.203 0.134 1.791 6.346 0.373 0.688 3 980021 1607 1988 382 0.163 0.123 1.280 4.837 0.371 0.841 4 980022 1574 1990 417 0.191 0.153 1.321 4.160 0.331 0.892 5 980032 1868 1991 124 0.358 0.316 1.673 4.829 0.265 0.854 6 980041 1608 1991 384 0.151 0.127 1.697 5.960 0.419 0.854 7 980042 1577 1991 415 0.165 0.146 1.712 5.502 0.411 0.799 8 980051 1869 1991 123 0.353 0.317 1.524 4.455 0.273 0.855 9 980052 1871 1991 121 0.348 0.358 1.621 4.471 0.275 0.883 10 980061 1573 1735 163 0.262 0.195 2.002 8.656 0.468 0.642 11 980062 1578 1764 187 0.209 0.157 0.983 3.464 0.473 0.783 12 980071 1567 1736 170 0.339 0.306 2.194 9.117 0.440 0.665 13 980072 1565 1922 358 0.222 0.196 2.183 8.908 0.375 0.753 14 980081 1767 1991 225 0.298 0.170 1.294 5.431 0.304 0.778 15 980082 1741 1991 251 0.275 0.189 1.469 6.036 0.364 0.821 16 980091 1863 1991 129 0.297 0.147 0.575 2.805 0.310 0.642 17 980092 1864 1991 128 0.418 0.181 1.122 4.441 0.269 0.674 18 980101 1786 1991 206 0.354 0.192 0.718 3.589 0.261 0.821 19 980102 1788 1990 203 0.335 0.165 0.591 3.284 0.287 0.794 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 0.242 0.092 0.372 3.737 0.339 0.451 21 980112 1733 1990 258 0.238 0.095 0.607 3.933 0.359 0.513 22 980121 1699 1991 293 0.168 0.108 1.611 6.659 0.480 0.553 23 980122 1683 1991 309 0.201 0.143 2.125 9.443 0.428 0.654 24 980131 1716 1991 276 0.210 0.080 0.628 3.811 0.320 0.475 25 980132 1741 1991 251 0.225 0.081 0.371 3.255 0.310 0.435 26 980141 1739 1991 253 0.179 0.068 0.166 2.771 0.358 0.419 27 980142 1726 1991 266 0.197 0.086 1.093 6.398 0.394 0.314 28 980161 1773 1991 219 0.288 0.155 1.149 4.957 0.302 0.781 29 980162 1760 1991 232 0.250 0.124 1.018 4.430 0.327 0.688 30 980171 1785 1991 207 0.349 0.304 2.167 8.431 0.336 0.832 31 980172 1797 1990 194 0.324 0.290 1.898 7.340 0.352 0.868 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 31 FROM 1565 TO 1991 427 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 0.259 0.173 1.299 5.327 0.354 0.704 STANDARD DEVIATION 85 0.073 0.080 0.590 1.968 0.063 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 246 0.242 0.155 1.305 4.829 0.352 0.778 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 82 0.128 0.070 0.854 2.598 0.083 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.151 0.068 0.166 2.771 0.261 0.314 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 189 0.202 0.123 0.851 3.774 0.307 0.642 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 271 0.330 0.194 1.705 6.372 0.390 0.827 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 0.418 0.358 2.194 9.443 0.480 0.892 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.308 0.351 0.017 -0.300 2.557 -0.671 0.966 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.671 SERIES 980021 AND 980051 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.966 SERIES 980032 AND 980052 121 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.612 0.738 0.595 0.575 0.695 0.628 0.441 0.518 0.514 0.378 SDEV 0.167 0.106 0.153 0.167 0.141 0.209 0.195 0.161 0.148 0.236 SERR 0.043 0.020 0.029 0.028 0.024 0.031 0.018 0.013 0.010 0.015 EPS 0.922 0.960 0.933 0.937 0.968 0.964 0.936 0.958 0.960 0.934 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.450 0.280 0.247 0.472 SDEV 0.160 0.326 0.415 0.257 SERR 0.010 0.017 0.022 0.014 EPS 0.955 0.916 0.900 0.960 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.248 0.152 3.244 20.983 0.293 0.681 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.489 0.200 0.067 198 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.43 1.00 1.12 2.54 32.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 249. 110. 121. 190. 300. 417. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.679 0.723 0.621 0.638 0.562 0.588 0.462 0.475 0.438 0.396 PACF 0.679 0.486 0.093 0.141 0.007 0.106 -0.155 -0.021 0.073 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.097 0.134 0.167 0.187 0.207 0.220 0.235 0.243 0.252 0.259 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.643 0.246 0.375 0.024 0.073 0.151 0.193 -0.161 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 980011 1 0.48877659 0.01486742 0.00000000 0.10962699 2 980012 1 0.44749939 0.02582720 0.00000000 0.14760640 3 980021 1 0.39975205 0.01693610 0.00000000 0.10218163 4 980022 1 0.42936450 0.00885167 0.00000000 0.07843416 5 980032 1 1.23672545 0.04429343 0.00000000 0.13859399 6 980041 1 0.41802987 0.02267541 0.00000000 0.10356105 7 980042 1 0.47111070 0.01375952 0.00000000 0.08327983 8 980051 1 1.16446590 0.03362551 0.00000000 0.08051926 9 980052 1 1.36231923 0.03873814 0.00000000 0.06560266 10 980061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00271961 0.48533970 11 980062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00217723 0.41310915 12 980071 1 0.95533228 0.02231733 0.00000000 0.09572674 13 980072 1 0.62126881 0.01365103 0.00000000 0.09678812 14 980081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050224 0.35439801 15 980082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049245 0.33702821 16 980091 1 0.26401949 0.05551228 0.00000000 0.26161492 17 980092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00174153 0.30603102 18 980101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235562 0.59744781 19 980102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181050 0.52008927 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 980111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043172 0.18780185 21 980112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026877 0.20368293 22 980121 1 0.21022815 0.01881678 0.00000000 0.11834846 23 980122 1 0.15149172 0.01893653 0.00000000 0.16130760 24 980131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018161 0.23526166 25 980132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025291 0.25660750 26 980141 1 0.08975558 0.05245304 0.00000000 0.17289865 27 980142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002144 0.19428118 28 980161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140337 0.44208789 29 980162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107770 0.37533700 30 980171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116827 0.47029221 31 980172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166763 0.48620212 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 1.005 0.549 1.584 6.433 0.385 0.626 2 980012 1683 1990 308 1.000 0.466 1.373 5.708 0.371 0.514 3 980021 1607 1988 382 1.000 0.606 1.134 4.283 0.370 0.764 4 980022 1574 1990 417 1.017 0.612 1.165 4.545 0.331 0.808 5 980032 1868 1991 124 1.011 0.389 0.809 3.480 0.262 0.590 6 980041 1608 1991 384 1.002 0.692 1.631 5.745 0.418 0.807 7 980042 1577 1991 415 1.010 0.623 1.641 6.706 0.410 0.727 8 980051 1869 1991 123 1.023 0.392 0.887 3.574 0.270 0.600 9 980052 1871 1991 121 1.044 0.492 1.166 4.160 0.275 0.713 10 980061 1573 1735 163 1.029 0.544 1.189 5.425 0.463 0.210 11 980062 1578 1764 187 1.190 1.401 7.035 59.321 0.464 0.525 12 980071 1567 1736 170 1.006 0.473 0.544 2.866 0.438 0.318 13 980072 1565 1922 358 1.009 0.516 1.014 4.053 0.374 0.588 14 980081 1767 1991 225 0.996 0.557 1.292 5.275 0.303 0.771 15 980082 1741 1991 251 0.994 0.693 1.536 5.968 0.363 0.823 16 980091 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.479 0.879 4.130 0.308 0.609 17 980092 1864 1991 128 1.001 0.389 0.674 3.177 0.267 0.630 18 980101 1786 1991 206 0.986 0.372 0.987 4.561 0.260 0.646 19 980102 1788 1990 203 0.994 0.413 1.166 5.045 0.286 0.682 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 0.999 0.347 -0.107 2.999 0.338 0.348 21 980112 1733 1990 258 1.000 0.389 0.406 3.188 0.357 0.467 22 980121 1699 1991 293 0.999 0.574 1.061 4.147 0.464 0.560 23 980122 1683 1991 309 0.998 0.681 2.576 15.113 0.410 0.659 24 980131 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.374 0.733 4.901 0.318 0.451 25 980132 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.349 0.214 2.795 0.309 0.422 26 980141 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.372 0.141 2.977 0.356 0.376 27 980142 1726 1991 266 1.000 0.437 1.138 6.685 0.393 0.310 28 980161 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.444 1.114 5.583 0.301 0.700 29 980162 1760 1991 232 0.997 0.370 0.383 3.336 0.326 0.478 30 980171 1785 1991 207 0.982 0.815 2.214 8.743 0.335 0.816 31 980172 1797 1990 194 0.961 0.778 1.797 6.772 0.351 0.845 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 1.008 0.535 1.270 6.829 0.351 0.593 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.037 0.207 1.216 10.020 0.061 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 1.000 0.479 1.134 4.561 0.351 0.609 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.009 0.220 0.684 2.330 0.084 0.248 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.961 0.347 -0.107 2.795 0.260 0.210 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 0.999 0.389 0.771 3.527 0.305 0.472 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 1.007 0.609 1.455 5.857 0.389 0.720 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.190 1.401 7.035 59.321 0.464 0.845 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 980011 -67 231 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 980012 -67 206 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 980021 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 980022 -67 279 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 980032 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 980041 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 980042 -67 278 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 980051 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 980052 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 980061 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 980062 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 980071 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 980072 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 980081 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 980082 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 980091 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 980092 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 980101 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 980102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 980111 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 980112 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 980121 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 980122 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 980131 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 980132 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 980141 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 980142 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 980161 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 980162 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 980171 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 980172 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 0.988 0.435 0.936 4.271 0.385 0.417 2 980012 1683 1990 308 0.995 0.398 0.898 4.032 0.371 0.334 3 980021 1607 1988 382 0.977 0.372 0.210 3.100 0.371 0.345 4 980022 1574 1990 417 0.973 0.378 0.147 2.832 0.331 0.530 5 980032 1868 1991 124 0.992 0.312 0.317 2.596 0.261 0.477 6 980041 1608 1991 384 0.972 0.519 0.660 3.046 0.418 0.633 7 980042 1577 1991 415 0.976 0.474 0.881 4.616 0.410 0.562 8 980051 1869 1991 123 0.990 0.300 0.400 3.136 0.269 0.447 9 980052 1871 1991 121 0.979 0.336 0.442 3.458 0.274 0.530 10 980061 1573 1735 163 0.994 0.472 0.648 3.708 0.463 0.187 11 980062 1578 1764 187 0.992 0.506 1.515 10.408 0.464 0.325 12 980071 1567 1736 170 0.989 0.425 0.419 2.862 0.438 0.232 13 980072 1565 1922 358 0.993 0.421 0.471 2.957 0.375 0.408 14 980081 1767 1991 225 0.998 0.359 0.565 3.915 0.303 0.467 15 980082 1741 1991 251 1.037 0.651 3.748 26.651 0.363 0.667 16 980091 1863 1991 129 0.992 0.444 0.655 3.699 0.307 0.561 17 980092 1864 1991 128 0.993 0.351 0.552 3.115 0.267 0.543 18 980101 1786 1991 206 0.995 0.352 1.006 4.454 0.260 0.565 19 980102 1788 1990 203 0.993 0.371 0.796 3.708 0.286 0.567 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 0.997 0.340 0.123 3.610 0.338 0.236 21 980112 1733 1990 258 0.996 0.373 0.333 3.101 0.357 0.404 22 980121 1699 1991 293 0.980 0.486 0.886 3.757 0.464 0.405 23 980122 1683 1991 309 0.974 0.501 1.686 7.736 0.410 0.434 24 980131 1716 1991 276 0.996 0.358 0.709 5.120 0.319 0.403 25 980132 1741 1991 251 0.998 0.340 0.300 3.135 0.309 0.384 26 980141 1739 1991 253 0.995 0.350 0.064 2.859 0.356 0.250 27 980142 1726 1991 266 0.991 0.397 0.907 5.577 0.393 0.180 28 980161 1773 1991 219 0.991 0.402 0.792 4.829 0.301 0.643 29 980162 1760 1991 232 0.998 0.364 0.375 3.212 0.326 0.448 30 980171 1785 1991 207 1.008 0.483 1.137 4.748 0.334 0.544 31 980172 1797 1990 194 1.020 0.509 1.539 6.493 0.351 0.518 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 0.992 0.412 0.778 4.863 0.351 0.440 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.013 0.077 0.686 4.359 0.061 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 0.993 0.397 0.655 3.708 0.351 0.447 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.008 0.118 0.515 1.574 0.084 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 120 0.972 0.300 0.064 2.596 0.260 0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 0.988 0.355 0.387 3.108 0.305 0.364 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 0.996 0.473 0.902 4.682 0.389 0.544 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.037 0.651 3.748 26.651 0.464 0.667 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.382 0.169 0.008 -0.432 4.354 -0.438 0.824 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.438 SERIES 980062 AND 980082 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.824 SERIES 980032 AND 980051 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.671 0.564 0.590 0.629 0.655 0.611 0.460 0.537 0.541 0.406 SDEV 0.124 0.138 0.132 0.127 0.130 0.148 0.150 0.134 0.133 0.203 SERR 0.032 0.026 0.025 0.021 0.022 0.022 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.013 EPS 0.939 0.916 0.932 0.949 0.961 0.961 0.941 0.961 0.964 0.941 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.455 0.319 0.389 0.471 SDEV 0.159 0.245 0.283 0.223 SERR 0.010 0.013 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.956 0.929 0.946 0.960 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.976 0.295 0.294 3.012 0.298 0.271 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.416 0.134 0.153 134 293 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.04 1.00 1.15 2.18 18.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.270 0.240 0.190 0.163 0.171 0.149 0.047 0.048 0.030 -0.011 PACF 0.270 0.180 0.098 0.068 0.082 0.052 -0.063 -0.018 -0.014 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.097 0.104 0.109 0.112 0.114 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.116 0.205 0.158 0.098 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.295 0.224 0.267 0.209 0.191 0.155 0.035 0.064 0.003 -0.049 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.295 2 0.251 0.150 3 0.223 0.103 0.187 4 0.207 0.095 0.169 0.083 5 0.201 0.083 0.162 0.068 0.070 6 0.200 0.081 0.158 0.066 0.065 0.023 7 0.202 0.088 0.165 0.082 0.073 0.042 -0.098 8 0.201 0.088 0.165 0.082 0.075 0.043 -0.096 -0.007 9 0.201 0.081 0.168 0.088 0.080 0.054 -0.090 0.007 -0.069 10 0.196 0.082 0.162 0.091 0.086 0.060 -0.079 0.012 -0.055 -0.069 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4005.82 3969.00 3961.28 3948.06 3947.12 3947.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3948.79 3946.69 3948.67 3948.66 3948.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.201 0.083 0.162 0.068 0.070 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 117.48 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.201 0.123 0.204 0.152 0.151 0.099 0.080 0.073 0.058 0.0480 0.039 0.032 0.026 0.022 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.0066 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 980011 5 0.274 0.237 0.113 0.112 0.123 0.146 2 980012 5 0.177 0.229 0.085 0.071 0.123 0.120 3 980021 5 0.224 0.195 0.153 0.187 0.032 0.105 4 980022 5 0.330 0.406 0.059 0.132 0.031 0.096 5 980032 5 0.313 0.331 0.229 0.166 0.043 -0.197 6 980041 5 0.485 0.392 0.128 0.048 0.092 0.179 7 980042 5 0.383 0.392 0.108 0.025 0.093 0.159 8 980051 5 0.288 0.278 0.260 0.103 0.066 -0.050 9 980052 5 0.344 0.405 0.056 0.176 0.101 -0.032 10 980061 5 0.104 0.118 0.210 0.154 -0.033 -0.015 11 980062 5 0.171 0.239 0.200 0.138 -0.036 -0.027 12 980071 5 0.148 0.149 0.259 0.038 0.058 0.016 13 980072 5 0.223 0.296 0.207 0.002 0.065 0.052 14 980081 5 0.244 0.382 0.173 0.021 -0.004 -0.011 15 980082 5 0.502 0.528 0.116 0.202 -0.129 0.056 16 980091 5 0.402 0.458 -0.009 0.305 -0.058 0.047 17 980092 5 0.336 0.471 0.088 0.103 0.045 -0.117 18 980101 5 0.383 0.417 0.181 0.171 -0.012 -0.085 19 980102 5 0.389 0.427 0.049 0.245 0.062 -0.056 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 980111 5 0.125 0.175 0.058 0.233 0.024 0.024 21 980112 5 0.228 0.303 0.056 0.151 0.108 0.018 22 980121 5 0.222 0.303 0.064 0.138 0.045 0.098 23 980122 5 0.217 0.368 0.045 0.089 0.046 0.056 24 980131 5 0.215 0.340 0.000 0.181 0.057 0.036 25 980132 5 0.247 0.301 -0.036 0.290 0.011 0.101 26 980141 5 0.107 0.192 0.128 0.006 0.107 0.075 27 980142 5 0.097 0.116 0.045 0.182 0.100 0.067 28 980161 5 0.478 0.447 0.171 0.175 0.033 -0.064 29 980162 5 0.251 0.370 0.069 0.173 0.032 -0.066 30 980171 5 0.370 0.385 0.161 0.197 -0.070 0.042 31 980172 5 0.339 0.368 0.080 0.228 -0.001 0.050 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.278 0.323 0.113 0.143 0.037 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.108 0.078 0.080 0.060 0.085 MEDIAN 5 0.251 0.340 0.108 0.154 0.045 0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 0.160 0.115 0.089 0.074 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.097 0.116 -0.036 0.002 -0.129 -0.197 LOWER HINGE 5 0.216 0.238 0.057 0.096 0.005 -0.030 UPPER HINGE 5 0.357 0.398 0.172 0.184 0.079 0.085 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.502 0.528 0.260 0.305 0.123 0.179 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 980011 1646 1990 345 1.000 0.371 0.395 3.667 0.426 -0.007 2 980012 1683 1990 308 1.000 0.361 0.567 3.302 0.406 -0.005 3 980021 1607 1988 382 1.000 0.327 0.049 3.203 0.388 -0.006 4 980022 1574 1990 417 1.000 0.309 0.115 2.926 0.363 0.002 5 980032 1868 1991 124 1.000 0.259 -0.056 3.122 0.286 0.007 6 980041 1608 1991 384 1.000 0.372 0.056 3.009 0.430 -0.013 7 980042 1577 1991 415 1.000 0.371 0.461 3.933 0.443 -0.006 8 980051 1869 1991 123 1.000 0.254 0.113 3.355 0.296 0.002 9 980052 1871 1991 121 1.000 0.273 -0.015 3.744 0.320 -0.001 10 980061 1573 1735 163 1.000 0.446 0.416 3.511 0.488 -0.004 11 980062 1578 1764 187 1.001 0.459 1.397 10.926 0.499 0.020 12 980071 1567 1736 170 1.000 0.394 0.221 2.935 0.462 0.002 13 980072 1565 1922 358 1.000 0.371 0.338 3.283 0.421 -0.001 14 980081 1767 1991 225 1.000 0.312 0.617 4.464 0.343 0.000 15 980082 1741 1991 251 1.003 0.452 3.087 24.538 0.423 -0.006 16 980091 1863 1991 129 1.000 0.344 0.212 3.312 0.367 0.003 17 980092 1864 1991 128 1.000 0.288 0.144 2.991 0.322 0.020 18 980101 1786 1991 206 1.000 0.278 0.488 3.915 0.305 -0.004 19 980102 1788 1990 203 1.000 0.291 0.170 2.933 0.331 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 980111 1743 1991 249 1.000 0.318 0.078 3.825 0.352 0.001 21 980112 1733 1990 258 1.000 0.330 0.058 2.834 0.391 0.001 22 980121 1699 1991 293 1.000 0.430 0.503 3.275 0.510 -0.006 23 980122 1683 1991 309 1.000 0.443 1.444 7.485 0.475 -0.005 24 980131 1716 1991 276 1.000 0.317 0.879 5.847 0.341 0.005 25 980132 1741 1991 251 1.000 0.295 0.403 3.144 0.344 0.003 26 980141 1739 1991 253 1.000 0.331 0.153 3.114 0.374 -0.003 27 980142 1726 1991 266 1.000 0.377 0.741 4.994 0.399 -0.005 28 980161 1773 1991 219 1.000 0.294 0.235 3.102 0.338 -0.011 29 980162 1760 1991 232 1.000 0.317 0.154 3.420 0.367 -0.012 30 980171 1785 1991 207 1.000 0.384 0.972 5.768 0.386 -0.012 31 980172 1797 1990 194 1.001 0.407 1.110 6.664 0.422 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 247 1.000 0.348 0.500 4.727 0.388 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 87 0.001 0.059 0.622 4.058 0.061 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 249 1.000 0.331 0.338 3.355 0.386 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 110 0.000 0.078 0.463 1.080 0.082 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 120 1.000 0.254 -0.056 2.834 0.286 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 190 1.000 0.302 0.130 3.118 0.342 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 300 1.000 0.380 0.592 4.199 0.425 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 417 1.003 0.459 3.087 24.538 0.510 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 416 0.458 0.121 0.006 -0.361 5.032 -0.074 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.074 SERIES 980062 AND 980082 24 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 980071 AND 980072 170 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 89.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 39.84 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 15. 28. 28. 36. 36. 45. 120. 153. 231. 253. RBAR 0.693 0.624 0.618 0.672 0.715 0.631 0.513 0.592 0.576 0.462 SDEV 0.078 0.102 0.120 0.083 0.085 0.129 0.123 0.105 0.111 0.135 SERR 0.020 0.019 0.023 0.014 0.014 0.019 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.944 0.934 0.939 0.957 0.970 0.964 0.951 0.969 0.969 0.952 NSS 7.5 8.5 9.5 11.0 13.1 15.8 18.6 21.4 23.0 23.3 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 351. 351. 351. RBAR 0.483 0.432 0.416 0.408 SDEV 0.121 0.157 0.129 0.146 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.960 0.955 0.951 0.949 NSS 25.8 28.0 27.6 27.1 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.993 0.273 0.118 3.196 0.325 -0.098 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.316 0.092 0.133 116 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.86 1.00 1.07 1.93 53.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.097 -0.008 -0.049 -0.029 -0.002 0.074 -0.028 0.005 -0.002 -0.042 PACF -0.097 -0.017 -0.052 -0.039 -0.010 0.070 -0.018 0.001 0.005 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.098 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.006 0.066 -0.027 0.001 -0.002 -0.040 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.006 0.066 -0.027 0.001 -0.002 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.005 0.001 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1565 1991 427 0.994 0.295 0.354 3.083 0.287 0.300 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.229 0.274 0.206 0.194 0.175 0.079 0.081 0.056 0.006 PACF 0.299 0.153 0.191 0.075 0.073 0.044 -0.056 -0.012 -0.027 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.097 0.105 0.110 0.116 0.119 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.155 0.205 0.084 0.168 0.060 0.071 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.49 MINUTES