RUN: RUSS011 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS151E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS151E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 076 1 Sarekungey (Kirgistan),j WIDTH_EARLY PCSH - 076 2 Russia Shrenk's spruce 2800 4140-7626 1850 1995 - 076 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 076031 1871 1994 124 0.922 0.491 0.766 3.181 0.254 0.827 2 076032 1875 1994 120 1.211 0.475 0.528 3.634 0.222 0.766 3 076041 1878 1995 118 0.841 0.308 0.787 4.296 0.246 0.634 4 076042 1850 1995 146 0.683 0.325 1.833 8.701 0.217 0.792 5 076111 1900 1995 96 1.351 0.661 1.393 4.406 0.211 0.852 6 076112 1909 1995 87 1.256 0.598 0.944 3.372 0.236 0.818 7 076121 1884 1995 112 0.932 0.677 1.118 3.256 0.275 0.909 8 076122 1888 1995 108 0.912 0.625 1.331 4.278 0.249 0.923 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1850 TO 1995 146 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.014 0.520 1.087 4.390 0.239 0.815 STANDARD DEVIATION 18 0.232 0.145 0.420 1.811 0.021 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.927 0.544 1.031 3.956 0.241 0.822 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.357 0.243 0.585 1.037 0.032 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.683 0.308 0.528 3.181 0.211 0.634 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.876 0.400 0.776 3.314 0.219 0.779 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.233 0.643 1.362 4.351 0.251 0.880 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.351 0.677 1.833 8.701 0.275 0.923 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.421 0.269 0.051 0.271 2.145 0.050 0.954 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.050 SERIES 076041 AND 076111 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.954 SERIES 076121 AND 076122 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 28. 28. RBAR 0.651 0.369 0.651 SDEV 0.175 0.325 0.173 SERR 0.055 0.061 0.033 EPS 0.930 0.824 0.937 NSS 7.2 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1995 146 0.906 0.351 0.445 2.520 0.212 0.810 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.679 0.496 -0.116 28 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.36 20.51 1.10 1.51 22.02 433.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.83 0.16 0.00 0.73 0.89 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 115. 20. 87. 102. 122. 146. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.804 0.703 0.592 0.506 0.408 0.323 0.254 0.214 0.191 0.200 PACF 0.804 0.161 -0.034 0.002 -0.063 -0.038 -0.002 0.046 0.050 0.100 95% C.L. 0.166 0.251 0.300 0.330 0.351 0.364 0.371 0.376 0.379 0.382 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.664 0.651 0.193 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 076031 1 1.06936967 0.00744825 0.00000000 0.22701357 2 076032 1 0.87528771 0.04314625 0.00000000 1.04634047 3 076041 1 0.19989768 0.03710255 0.00000000 0.79676259 4 076042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029763 0.70536894 5 076111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00770313 1.72474778 6 076112 1 1.25982130 0.01463868 0.00000000 0.54834700 7 076121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01371694 1.70741796 8 076122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01487834 1.72262895 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 076031 1871 1994 124 1.001 0.518 1.055 4.263 0.252 0.788 2 076032 1875 1994 120 0.999 0.360 0.508 3.852 0.221 0.688 3 076041 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.370 1.078 5.224 0.244 0.615 4 076042 1850 1995 146 1.000 0.482 2.015 9.724 0.215 0.785 5 076111 1900 1995 96 0.997 0.430 0.970 3.354 0.208 0.810 6 076112 1909 1995 87 1.001 0.421 0.685 2.766 0.233 0.766 7 076121 1884 1995 112 1.036 0.588 1.973 10.381 0.274 0.781 8 076122 1888 1995 108 1.107 0.777 3.770 19.382 0.248 0.784 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.018 0.493 1.507 7.368 0.237 0.752 STANDARD DEVIATION 18 0.038 0.138 1.066 5.642 0.022 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.456 1.067 4.743 0.239 0.783 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.019 0.158 1.167 6.450 0.032 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.997 0.360 0.508 2.766 0.208 0.615 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.395 0.827 3.603 0.218 0.727 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.019 0.553 1.994 10.052 0.250 0.786 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.107 0.777 3.770 19.382 0.274 0.810 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 076031 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 076032 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 076041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 076042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 076111 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 076112 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 076121 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 076122 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 076031 1871 1994 124 0.983 0.408 0.363 3.031 0.249 0.727 2 076032 1875 1994 120 0.997 0.317 -0.159 3.039 0.220 0.641 3 076041 1878 1995 118 0.994 0.329 0.656 4.364 0.243 0.533 4 076042 1850 1995 146 0.986 0.340 0.192 3.052 0.214 0.739 5 076111 1900 1995 96 0.982 0.297 0.523 2.595 0.207 0.616 6 076112 1909 1995 87 0.980 0.286 0.242 3.158 0.230 0.546 7 076121 1884 1995 112 0.979 0.418 0.167 2.776 0.273 0.708 8 076122 1888 1995 108 0.994 0.406 0.400 3.031 0.247 0.731 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 0.987 0.350 0.298 3.131 0.235 0.655 STANDARD DEVIATION 18 0.007 0.053 0.249 0.530 0.022 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.985 0.334 0.303 3.035 0.237 0.675 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.013 0.100 0.282 0.202 0.031 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.979 0.286 -0.159 2.595 0.207 0.533 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.981 0.307 0.180 2.903 0.217 0.581 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.994 0.407 0.462 3.105 0.248 0.729 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 0.997 0.418 0.656 4.364 0.273 0.739 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.565 0.185 0.035 -0.126 2.149 0.206 0.909 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.206 SERIES 076042 AND 076112 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.909 SERIES 076121 AND 076122 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 28. 28. RBAR 0.589 0.516 0.691 SDEV 0.132 0.271 0.154 SERR 0.042 0.051 0.029 EPS 0.911 0.895 0.947 NSS 7.2 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1995 146 0.976 0.295 -0.020 3.095 0.198 0.700 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.121 0.060 21 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.55 2.16 1.03 1.25 3.42 75.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.13 0.00 0.76 0.89 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.695 0.532 0.399 0.270 0.106 -0.031 -0.129 -0.177 -0.186 -0.128 PACF 0.695 0.095 -0.003 -0.060 -0.159 -0.116 -0.065 -0.002 0.034 0.115 95% C.L. 0.166 0.232 0.263 0.279 0.286 0.288 0.288 0.289 0.292 0.295 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.499 0.611 0.127 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.693 0.527 0.394 0.257 0.086 -0.057 -0.152 -0.227 -0.258 -0.176 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.693 2 0.631 0.090 3 0.631 0.090 -0.001 4 0.631 0.097 0.046 -0.075 5 0.618 0.105 0.063 0.033 -0.170 6 0.597 0.109 0.071 0.046 -0.094 -0.124 7 0.590 0.103 0.073 0.050 -0.087 -0.089 -0.058 8 0.586 0.098 0.068 0.053 -0.083 -0.083 -0.023 -0.059 9 0.586 0.098 0.068 0.052 -0.083 -0.083 -0.022 -0.055 -0.008 10 0.587 0.107 0.071 0.066 -0.069 -0.091 -0.033 -0.071 -0.106 0.169 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 920.69 827.15 827.97 829.97 831.15 828.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 828.61 830.13 831.62 833.61 831.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.693 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 48.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 192.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.693 0.480 0.333 0.231 0.160 0.111 0.077 0.053 0.037 0.0255 0.018 0.012 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 076031 1 0.547 0.739 2 076032 1 0.440 0.660 3 076041 1 0.320 0.536 4 076042 1 0.594 0.766 5 076111 1 0.393 0.620 6 076112 1 0.316 0.547 7 076121 1 0.533 0.719 8 076122 1 0.557 0.746 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.463 0.667 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.091 MEDIAN 1 0.487 0.690 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.195 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.316 0.536 LOWER HINGE 1 0.357 0.584 UPPER HINGE 1 0.552 0.743 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.594 0.766 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 076031 1871 1994 124 1.000 0.275 0.491 3.862 0.306 0.033 2 076032 1875 1994 120 1.000 0.237 -0.102 3.456 0.275 -0.050 3 076041 1878 1995 118 1.000 0.278 0.448 4.871 0.307 -0.111 4 076042 1850 1995 146 1.000 0.218 -0.076 3.229 0.261 -0.071 5 076111 1900 1995 96 1.000 0.233 0.392 3.316 0.274 -0.068 6 076112 1909 1995 87 1.000 0.240 0.380 3.922 0.268 -0.082 7 076121 1884 1995 112 1.000 0.288 -0.021 4.053 0.337 -0.133 8 076122 1888 1995 108 1.000 0.269 0.147 4.072 0.302 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 0.255 0.207 3.848 0.291 -0.059 STANDARD DEVIATION 18 0.000 0.026 0.249 0.530 0.026 0.056 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.255 0.263 3.892 0.289 -0.070 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.000 0.041 0.469 0.676 0.036 0.075 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.218 -0.102 3.229 0.261 -0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.235 -0.049 3.386 0.271 -0.096 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.276 0.420 4.063 0.307 -0.021 MAXIMUM VALUE 146 1.000 0.288 0.491 4.871 0.337 0.033 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.533 0.150 0.028 -0.245 3.117 0.169 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.169 SERIES 076042 AND 076112 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 076121 AND 076122 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. 1960. CORR 10. 28. 28. RBAR 0.529 0.550 0.656 SDEV 0.077 0.168 0.151 SERR 0.024 0.032 0.029 EPS 0.889 0.907 0.938 NSS 7.2 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1995 146 0.991 0.206 -0.110 4.095 0.241 -0.066 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.234 0.102 0.029 24 122 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.76 1.01 1.08 2.84 16.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.14 0.00 0.77 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.065 0.110 0.073 0.077 -0.022 -0.077 -0.084 -0.075 -0.167 0.056 PACF -0.065 0.107 0.088 0.077 -0.029 -0.107 -0.109 -0.075 -0.146 0.082 95% C.L. 0.166 0.166 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.172 0.173 0.177 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.113 0.086 0.081 -0.022 -0.084 -0.095 -0.092 -0.169 0.042 PACF 0.007 0.112 0.086 0.070 -0.041 -0.112 -0.107 -0.077 -0.135 0.092 95% C.L. 0.166 0.166 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.178 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.013 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1850 1995 146 0.984 0.303 0.047 2.959 0.187 0.736 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.731 0.552 0.391 0.238 0.067 -0.079 -0.169 -0.217 -0.226 -0.153 PACF 0.731 0.038 -0.052 -0.090 -0.156 -0.114 -0.030 -0.009 0.013 0.135 95% C.L. 0.166 0.238 0.271 0.286 0.291 0.292 0.292 0.295 0.299 0.304 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.546 0.737 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.07 MINUTES