RUN: SPAI001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SPAI005N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SPAI005N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 495 1 Alcala de Selva DENSITY_MINIMUM PIMU - 495 2 Spain krummholz pine 1960 4023-40 1820 1977 - 495 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 495012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 495021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 495022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 495031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 495032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 495041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 495091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 495102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 0.360 0.028 -0.259 2.267 0.055 0.631 2 495012 1914 1977 64 0.337 0.020 0.728 4.746 0.066 0.053 3 495021 1882 1977 96 0.345 0.026 1.043 5.041 0.060 0.423 4 495022 1886 1977 92 0.330 0.025 0.675 3.394 0.052 0.591 5 495031 1917 1977 61 0.340 0.031 0.464 3.194 0.051 0.701 6 495032 1922 1977 56 0.339 0.022 0.936 3.389 0.043 0.604 7 495041 1889 1977 89 0.372 0.029 -0.013 3.212 0.059 0.408 8 495042 1885 1977 93 0.372 0.026 0.035 2.821 0.056 0.493 9 495051 1868 1977 110 0.333 0.022 0.281 3.176 0.060 0.316 10 495052 1864 1977 114 0.325 0.024 0.268 3.019 0.050 0.596 11 495081 1884 1977 94 0.328 0.023 -0.066 2.792 0.055 0.517 12 495082 1868 1977 110 0.330 0.024 0.945 5.206 0.054 0.567 13 495091 1836 1977 142 0.302 0.027 -0.502 5.608 0.066 0.424 14 495092 1854 1977 124 0.322 0.032 0.338 2.837 0.052 0.756 15 495101 1918 1977 60 0.312 0.022 -0.379 5.033 0.058 0.387 16 495102 1917 1977 61 0.317 0.024 0.305 3.730 0.060 0.468 17 495111 1881 1977 97 0.335 0.027 0.506 3.374 0.061 0.443 18 495112 1893 1977 85 0.334 0.020 0.676 4.115 0.053 0.267 19 495141 1831 1977 147 0.357 0.028 0.610 3.771 0.064 0.327 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 0.378 0.029 0.783 4.030 0.062 0.410 21 495151 1900 1977 78 0.317 0.020 0.192 3.432 0.050 0.494 22 495152 1897 1977 81 0.288 0.032 1.095 3.850 0.048 0.792 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1820 TO 1977 158 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 93 0.335 0.025 0.394 3.729 0.056 0.485 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.023 0.004 0.458 0.896 0.006 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 88 0.333 0.025 0.401 3.413 0.056 0.481 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.022 0.006 0.693 0.939 0.009 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.288 0.020 -0.502 2.267 0.043 0.053 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.322 0.022 0.035 3.176 0.052 0.408 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 0.345 0.028 0.728 4.115 0.060 0.596 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 0.378 0.032 1.095 5.608 0.066 0.792 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.153 0.255 0.017 -0.255 2.755 -0.576 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.576 SERIES 495042 AND 495152 81 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 495031 AND 495032 56 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.113 0.084 0.212 SDEV 0.295 0.252 0.251 SERR 0.120 0.055 0.023 EPS 0.542 0.594 0.847 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.342 0.022 1.524 5.902 0.039 0.701 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.349 -0.253 0.116 43 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.65 1.02 1.13 1.77 4.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 92. 45. 56. 65. 110. 158. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.697 0.616 0.566 0.560 0.510 0.510 0.465 0.416 0.412 0.390 PACF 0.697 0.253 0.143 0.162 0.031 0.104 -0.002 -0.040 0.056 0.002 95% C.L. 0.159 0.223 0.263 0.292 0.318 0.338 0.357 0.372 0.384 0.395 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.556 0.441 0.160 0.066 0.183 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 495011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019580 0.35323077 2 495012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004264 0.33522338 3 495021 1 0.05739721 0.04338427 0.00000000 0.33055511 4 495022 1 0.06781453 0.05326458 0.00000000 0.31704062 5 495031 1 0.17749390 0.01169020 0.00000000 0.21061794 6 495032 1 0.06399515 0.03708785 0.00000000 0.31058800 7 495041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079421 0.33307245 8 495042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061696 0.34283075 9 495051 1 0.06736291 0.14262490 0.00000000 0.32873249 10 495052 1 0.02497955 0.01154688 0.00000000 0.31154293 11 495081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056229 0.35426217 12 495082 1 0.05596887 0.09149045 0.00000000 0.32459858 13 495091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001308 0.30197650 14 495092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050049 0.29105821 15 495101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035121 0.30128813 16 495102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003479 0.31590533 17 495111 1 0.02522805 0.11020605 0.00000000 0.33251002 18 495112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018331 0.32564706 19 495141 1 0.05741915 0.08787274 0.00000000 0.35268620 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 495142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016329 0.36549947 21 495151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036520 0.33186147 22 495152 1 0.11660443 0.04366854 0.00000000 0.25621879 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.078 -0.148 2.287 0.054 0.617 2 495012 1914 1977 64 1.000 0.061 0.552 4.330 0.068 0.015 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.060 1.055 4.521 0.058 0.166 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.055 0.351 3.599 0.050 0.282 5 495031 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.052 0.797 3.449 0.049 0.239 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.044 1.053 3.422 0.041 0.233 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.065 0.284 2.663 0.057 0.301 8 495042 1885 1977 93 1.000 0.053 0.105 2.882 0.056 0.145 9 495051 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.058 0.197 3.375 0.059 0.155 10 495052 1864 1977 114 1.000 0.073 0.498 3.439 0.049 0.559 11 495081 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.051 -0.002 3.549 0.055 0.058 12 495082 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.064 0.645 3.644 0.054 0.461 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.090 -0.520 5.604 0.065 0.433 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.081 0.568 2.888 0.052 0.643 15 495101 1918 1977 60 1.000 0.066 -0.552 4.886 0.058 0.330 16 495102 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.075 0.318 3.667 0.057 0.474 17 495111 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.078 0.471 3.310 0.060 0.415 18 495112 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.059 0.505 3.276 0.052 0.240 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.073 0.736 4.374 0.063 0.259 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.074 0.847 4.256 0.061 0.370 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.058 0.070 2.963 0.049 0.372 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.044 0.483 2.955 0.048 0.019 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.064 0.378 3.606 0.055 0.308 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.012 0.433 0.782 0.006 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.063 0.477 3.444 0.055 0.291 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.019 0.539 1.293 0.008 0.266 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.044 -0.552 2.287 0.041 0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.055 0.105 2.963 0.050 0.166 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.074 0.645 4.256 0.059 0.433 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.090 1.055 5.604 0.068 0.643 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 495011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 495012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 495021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 495022 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 495031 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 495032 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 495041 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 495042 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 495051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 495052 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 495081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 495082 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 495091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 495092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 495101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 495102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 495111 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 495112 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 495141 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 495142 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 495151 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 495152 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.051 -0.264 2.789 0.055 0.169 2 495012 1914 1977 64 1.000 0.056 0.210 3.533 0.068 -0.127 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.059 1.112 4.832 0.058 0.115 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.051 0.486 4.046 0.050 0.153 5 495031 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.051 0.792 3.384 0.049 0.224 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.042 1.072 3.413 0.041 0.183 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.054 0.238 2.751 0.057 0.022 8 495042 1885 1977 93 1.000 0.050 0.015 2.941 0.056 0.009 9 495051 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.054 -0.111 4.354 0.059 0.048 10 495052 1864 1977 114 0.999 0.053 0.035 2.983 0.050 0.237 11 495081 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.050 0.027 3.622 0.055 0.032 12 495082 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.062 0.685 3.790 0.054 0.414 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.088 -0.616 5.786 0.065 0.402 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.066 0.143 2.967 0.052 0.449 15 495101 1918 1977 60 1.000 0.061 -0.364 4.377 0.058 0.223 16 495102 1917 1977 61 0.999 0.060 0.381 3.452 0.058 0.222 17 495111 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.072 0.705 3.581 0.061 0.316 18 495112 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.053 0.242 3.086 0.052 0.096 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.071 0.684 4.688 0.063 0.198 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.066 0.992 4.837 0.061 0.196 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.055 0.093 3.064 0.049 0.302 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.043 0.467 2.808 0.048 -0.039 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.058 0.319 3.686 0.055 0.175 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.010 0.467 0.820 0.006 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.054 0.240 3.493 0.055 0.190 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.010 0.658 1.370 0.009 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.999 0.042 -0.616 2.751 0.041 -0.127 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.051 0.027 2.983 0.050 0.048 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.062 0.685 4.354 0.059 0.237 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.088 1.112 5.786 0.068 0.449 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.224 0.156 0.010 -0.261 3.288 -0.294 0.590 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.294 SERIES 495011 AND 495092 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.590 SERIES 495111 AND 495112 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.183 0.125 0.233 SDEV 0.268 0.197 0.186 SERR 0.109 0.043 0.017 EPS 0.675 0.696 0.862 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.999 0.038 0.639 4.052 0.040 0.068 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.164 0.110 -0.064 48 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.86 1.01 1.05 1.92 142.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.068 0.078 -0.080 -0.019 -0.143 0.027 0.005 -0.009 0.070 0.041 PACF 0.068 0.074 -0.091 -0.013 -0.130 0.042 0.019 -0.039 0.076 0.019 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.051 0.039 -0.132 -0.119 -0.187 0.004 0.044 0.021 0.133 0.043 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.051 2 -0.049 0.037 3 -0.045 0.030 -0.129 4 -0.062 0.034 -0.135 -0.135 5 -0.089 0.007 -0.128 -0.148 -0.200 6 -0.096 0.002 -0.133 -0.147 -0.203 -0.036 7 -0.096 0.006 -0.130 -0.145 -0.203 -0.034 0.017 8 -0.095 0.004 -0.139 -0.152 -0.209 -0.034 0.013 -0.044 9 -0.091 0.003 -0.136 -0.135 -0.196 -0.022 0.012 -0.037 0.081 10 -0.094 0.004 -0.137 -0.134 -0.190 -0.018 0.017 -0.037 0.084 0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 554.20 555.79 557.58 556.93 556.01 551.59 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 553.39 555.35 557.03 557.99 559.83 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.089 0.007 -0.128 -0.148 -0.200 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.67 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.089 0.015 -0.130 -0.125 -0.178 0.047 0.027 0.065 0.040 0.0222 -0.023 -0.018 -0.020 -0.007 0.002 0.010 0.007 0.004 -0.001 -.0025 -0.003 -0.002 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 -.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 495011 5 0.086 0.165 0.035 0.058 0.063 -0.199 2 495012 5 0.062 -0.124 -0.113 0.109 -0.087 -0.085 3 495021 5 0.057 0.102 0.113 -0.062 -0.034 -0.120 4 495022 5 0.052 0.135 0.099 -0.020 -0.030 -0.126 5 495031 5 0.176 0.178 0.014 -0.139 -0.118 -0.180 6 495032 5 0.174 0.253 -0.190 -0.070 0.170 -0.314 7 495041 5 0.021 0.019 0.064 0.047 0.009 -0.118 8 495042 5 0.068 -0.029 0.165 0.141 0.124 -0.036 9 495051 5 0.078 0.033 0.104 -0.055 -0.049 -0.232 10 495052 5 0.086 0.208 0.111 0.048 0.017 -0.024 11 495081 5 0.016 0.033 0.093 -0.040 -0.030 0.048 12 495082 5 0.198 0.431 -0.018 -0.132 0.022 -0.085 13 495091 5 0.365 0.167 0.485 0.125 -0.083 0.010 14 495092 5 0.313 0.286 0.352 0.112 -0.078 -0.119 15 495101 5 0.112 0.187 0.011 -0.116 -0.168 -0.071 16 495102 5 0.255 0.260 0.133 0.006 0.317 -0.325 17 495111 5 0.151 0.259 0.213 -0.003 -0.029 -0.102 18 495112 5 0.102 0.088 0.002 0.102 -0.162 -0.152 19 495141 5 0.103 0.177 0.250 -0.107 0.006 0.032 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 495142 5 0.068 0.160 0.158 0.030 0.003 -0.012 21 495151 5 0.187 0.253 0.189 -0.051 -0.223 -0.011 22 495152 5 0.069 -0.043 0.097 -0.040 -0.057 -0.222 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.127 0.145 0.108 -0.003 -0.019 -0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.128 0.144 0.087 0.118 0.103 MEDIAN 5 0.094 0.166 0.102 -0.011 -0.030 -0.110 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.109 0.220 0.152 0.120 0.100 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.016 -0.124 -0.190 -0.139 -0.223 -0.325 LOWER HINGE 5 0.068 0.033 0.014 -0.062 -0.083 -0.180 UPPER HINGE 5 0.176 0.253 0.165 0.058 0.017 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.365 0.431 0.485 0.141 0.317 0.048 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.050 -0.125 2.622 0.059 -0.021 2 495012 1914 1977 64 1.000 0.054 0.249 3.525 0.063 -0.004 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.057 1.051 4.606 0.061 -0.012 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.049 0.454 4.090 0.053 0.002 5 495031 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.048 0.805 3.221 0.054 -0.042 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.038 1.073 3.413 0.042 0.004 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.053 0.185 2.724 0.059 -0.005 8 495042 1885 1977 93 1.000 0.048 -0.016 3.134 0.054 -0.001 9 495051 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.052 0.085 3.760 0.060 -0.004 10 495052 1864 1977 114 1.000 0.051 -0.005 3.042 0.056 0.003 11 495081 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.050 0.097 3.620 0.056 -0.005 12 495082 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.055 0.542 3.784 0.066 0.002 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.070 -0.596 6.791 0.068 -0.001 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.055 0.101 3.913 0.057 -0.009 15 495101 1918 1977 60 1.000 0.057 -0.158 3.585 0.062 0.000 16 495102 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.052 0.262 3.161 0.053 -0.045 17 495111 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.066 0.586 3.348 0.070 -0.005 18 495112 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.051 0.235 3.032 0.056 -0.027 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.067 0.684 4.975 0.069 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.064 0.754 4.195 0.067 -0.002 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.050 0.394 2.982 0.055 -0.004 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.041 0.405 3.130 0.047 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.054 0.321 3.666 0.058 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.008 0.407 0.909 0.007 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.052 0.256 3.469 0.058 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.008 0.501 0.782 0.009 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.038 -0.596 2.622 0.042 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.050 0.085 3.130 0.054 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.057 0.586 3.913 0.063 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.070 1.073 6.791 0.070 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.243 0.141 0.009 -0.202 3.271 -0.205 0.618 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 495051 AND 495092 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.618 SERIES 495011 AND 495012 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.277 0.235 0.263 SDEV 0.209 0.163 0.160 SERR 0.085 0.036 0.015 EPS 0.780 0.831 0.880 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.036 0.677 3.964 0.043 -0.124 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.152 0.094 -0.053 31 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.45 1.01 1.09 1.54 10.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.124 -0.067 -0.060 0.017 -0.069 0.067 0.007 -0.087 0.110 0.049 PACF -0.124 -0.083 -0.081 -0.008 -0.081 0.044 0.011 -0.089 0.101 0.061 95% C.L. 0.159 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.167 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.125 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.000 -0.004 0.013 0.006 0.040 0.003 -0.084 0.094 0.042 PACF 0.004 0.000 -0.004 0.013 0.006 0.040 0.003 -0.084 0.096 0.040 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.161 0.162 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.002 0.004 0.000 -0.004 0.013 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.999 0.037 0.719 3.925 0.042 -0.047 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.046 0.032 -0.126 -0.122 -0.201 0.060 0.041 -0.003 0.159 0.062 PACF -0.046 0.030 -0.123 -0.136 -0.214 0.023 0.024 -0.073 0.118 0.068 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.162 0.164 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.175 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES