RUN: SPAI001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SPAI005P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SPAI005P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 495 1 Alcala de Selva LATEWOOD_PERCENT PIMU - 495 2 Spain krummholz pine 1960 4023-40 1820 1977 - 495 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 495102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.950 0.561 0.428 4.601 0.296 0.162 2 495012 1914 1977 64 2.245 0.616 -0.021 3.604 0.321 0.122 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.980 0.711 0.541 3.153 0.371 0.243 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.923 0.694 0.470 3.377 0.425 0.072 5 495031 1917 1977 61 2.001 0.614 0.572 3.084 0.329 0.082 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.596 0.459 -0.250 3.027 0.375 -0.126 7 495041 1889 1977 89 2.157 0.517 0.092 3.066 0.293 0.033 8 495042 1885 1977 93 2.433 0.622 -0.001 3.179 0.240 0.372 9 495051 1868 1977 110 2.012 0.553 0.653 3.936 0.290 0.155 10 495052 1864 1977 114 2.166 0.590 0.219 3.222 0.263 0.299 11 495081 1884 1977 94 2.096 0.631 -0.008 3.511 0.327 0.168 12 495082 1868 1977 110 1.675 0.633 -0.212 3.646 0.355 0.526 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.902 0.626 0.083 3.488 0.362 0.116 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.963 0.625 0.098 2.719 0.369 0.042 15 495101 1918 1977 60 2.289 0.920 0.973 4.878 0.315 0.478 16 495102 1917 1977 61 2.099 0.641 -0.453 3.690 0.308 0.431 17 495111 1881 1977 97 2.501 0.793 1.578 6.346 0.269 0.305 18 495112 1893 1977 85 2.488 0.598 0.214 3.043 0.241 0.237 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.749 1.079 0.943 3.509 0.655 0.317 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.914 1.195 1.091 5.579 0.663 0.323 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.681 0.673 0.667 3.335 0.341 0.531 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.272 0.483 0.802 5.780 0.403 0.187 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1820 TO 1977 158 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 2.004 0.674 0.386 3.808 0.355 0.231 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.299 0.180 0.498 0.992 0.110 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.991 0.625 0.324 3.498 0.328 0.212 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.264 0.104 0.668 0.784 0.077 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.272 0.459 -0.453 2.719 0.240 -0.126 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.902 0.590 -0.001 3.153 0.293 0.116 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 2.166 0.694 0.667 3.936 0.371 0.323 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 2.501 1.195 1.578 6.346 0.663 0.531 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.235 0.203 0.013 -0.357 2.967 -0.421 0.756 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.421 SERIES 495011 AND 495032 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.756 SERIES 495141 AND 495142 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.408 0.257 0.370 SDEV 0.227 0.207 0.154 SERR 0.093 0.045 0.014 EPS 0.864 0.847 0.924 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 1.873 0.575 -0.464 4.778 0.348 0.003 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.207 0.096 0.402 29 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.52 1.02 1.06 1.58 9.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 92. 45. 56. 65. 110. 158. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.131 0.146 0.039 0.073 0.071 0.049 0.067 -0.048 0.012 PACF 0.003 0.131 0.148 0.025 0.037 0.045 0.029 0.040 -0.077 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.162 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.042 -0.019 0.138 0.153 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 495011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00324869 2.05705285 2 495012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00374084 2.36626482 3 495021 1 0.85308802 0.04398031 0.00000000 1.78526115 4 495022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00137941 1.85933590 5 495031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022739 1.99409831 6 495032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033048 1.58683121 7 495041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00702111 1.84090400 8 495042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00895109 2.01273966 9 495051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00431310 1.77216852 10 495052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00483607 1.88745224 11 495081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00577358 1.82139325 12 495082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01127061 1.04966307 13 495091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113368 1.98288882 14 495092 1 0.62811196 0.00335941 0.00000000 1.44992566 15 495101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01406113 1.86046898 16 495102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00654085 1.91351616 17 495111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01055951 1.98351157 18 495112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00279187 2.36794949 19 495141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198460 1.60245919 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 495142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00424683 1.57623804 21 495151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200255 1.76038301 22 495152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236314 1.17545676 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.287 0.439 4.396 0.292 0.142 2 495012 1914 1977 64 1.000 0.274 -0.040 3.340 0.316 0.112 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.347 0.607 3.368 0.367 0.157 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.359 0.402 3.226 0.420 0.071 5 495031 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.307 0.569 3.067 0.324 0.081 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.287 -0.260 3.029 0.368 -0.123 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.224 -0.052 3.162 0.290 -0.129 8 495042 1885 1977 93 1.000 0.236 -0.193 2.868 0.237 0.250 9 495051 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.270 0.903 5.127 0.287 0.073 10 495052 1864 1977 114 0.999 0.263 0.419 3.693 0.261 0.232 11 495081 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.296 -0.056 3.482 0.324 0.121 12 495082 1868 1977 110 0.999 0.352 -0.076 3.904 0.352 0.372 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.331 0.136 3.462 0.359 0.110 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.319 0.155 2.814 0.366 0.029 15 495101 1918 1977 60 0.998 0.398 1.313 5.650 0.310 0.432 16 495102 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.298 -0.494 3.895 0.301 0.412 17 495111 1881 1977 97 0.999 0.276 1.107 4.845 0.266 0.178 18 495112 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.238 0.141 2.965 0.238 0.208 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.610 0.844 3.160 0.651 0.298 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.000 0.614 0.893 4.535 0.659 0.269 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.400 0.671 3.246 0.336 0.520 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.375 0.682 5.390 0.398 0.181 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.335 0.369 3.756 0.351 0.182 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.001 0.103 0.480 0.857 0.110 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.302 0.410 3.415 0.324 0.168 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.085 0.733 1.236 0.077 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.998 0.224 -0.494 2.814 0.237 -0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.274 -0.052 3.160 0.290 0.081 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.359 0.682 4.396 0.367 0.269 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.614 1.313 5.650 0.659 0.520 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 495011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 495012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 495021 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 495022 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 495031 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 495032 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 495041 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 495042 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 495051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 495052 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 495081 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 495082 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 495091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 495092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 495101 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 495102 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 495111 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 495112 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 495141 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 495142 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 495151 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 495152 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 0.999 0.274 0.208 4.046 0.292 0.064 2 495012 1914 1977 64 0.998 0.264 -0.019 3.632 0.316 0.046 3 495021 1882 1977 96 0.997 0.331 0.424 2.993 0.366 0.106 4 495022 1886 1977 92 0.998 0.343 0.202 2.981 0.420 0.021 5 495031 1917 1977 61 0.999 0.296 0.620 3.376 0.324 0.019 6 495032 1922 1977 56 0.999 0.288 -0.054 3.295 0.367 -0.146 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.222 -0.032 3.232 0.290 -0.150 8 495042 1885 1977 93 0.998 0.224 -0.182 2.884 0.237 0.168 9 495051 1868 1977 110 0.999 0.266 1.075 5.838 0.287 0.047 10 495052 1864 1977 114 0.998 0.230 0.443 4.609 0.261 -0.022 11 495081 1884 1977 94 0.997 0.289 -0.067 3.485 0.324 0.082 12 495082 1868 1977 110 0.996 0.342 -0.037 4.230 0.352 0.327 13 495091 1836 1977 142 0.999 0.327 0.131 3.408 0.359 0.070 14 495092 1854 1977 124 0.999 0.316 0.143 2.829 0.366 0.012 15 495101 1918 1977 60 0.996 0.286 0.257 4.113 0.310 -0.022 16 495102 1917 1977 61 0.994 0.251 -0.948 6.146 0.301 0.070 17 495111 1881 1977 97 0.999 0.264 1.460 6.498 0.266 0.060 18 495112 1893 1977 85 0.998 0.216 0.592 3.644 0.238 0.036 19 495141 1831 1977 147 0.991 0.569 0.692 2.874 0.650 0.182 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 0.989 0.571 0.609 3.642 0.660 0.178 21 495151 1900 1977 78 0.995 0.293 0.692 4.059 0.334 0.059 22 495152 1897 1977 81 0.998 0.354 0.321 4.410 0.398 0.107 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 0.997 0.310 0.297 3.919 0.351 0.060 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.003 0.093 0.489 1.049 0.110 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 0.998 0.289 0.232 3.637 0.324 0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.002 0.067 0.641 0.998 0.076 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 56 0.989 0.216 -0.948 2.829 0.237 -0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 0.996 0.264 -0.032 3.232 0.290 0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 0.999 0.331 0.609 4.230 0.366 0.106 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.000 0.571 1.460 6.498 0.660 0.327 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.227 0.202 0.013 -0.411 3.027 -0.406 0.782 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.406 SERIES 495011 AND 495032 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.782 SERIES 495021 AND 495022 92 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.408 0.237 0.359 SDEV 0.230 0.200 0.129 SERR 0.094 0.044 0.012 EPS 0.864 0.833 0.920 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.976 0.302 0.233 4.055 0.357 -0.057 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.204 0.091 0.168 43 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.71 1.00 1.10 1.81 4.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.057 -0.003 -0.024 -0.027 -0.077 0.046 -0.038 0.031 -0.148 -0.049 PACF -0.057 -0.007 -0.024 -0.030 -0.081 0.036 -0.037 0.023 -0.151 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.001 -0.225 -0.063 0.102 -0.069 0.002 0.064 0.044 -0.141 -0.084 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.001 2 0.001 -0.225 3 -0.014 -0.225 -0.065 4 -0.010 -0.213 -0.065 0.053 5 -0.005 -0.219 -0.086 0.052 -0.102 6 -0.002 -0.221 -0.084 0.060 -0.102 0.033 7 -0.003 -0.217 -0.086 0.063 -0.093 0.033 0.041 8 -0.004 -0.218 -0.083 0.061 -0.090 0.041 0.041 0.036 9 0.000 -0.214 -0.078 0.051 -0.083 0.032 0.017 0.036 -0.110 10 -0.009 -0.211 -0.077 0.053 -0.089 0.036 0.011 0.019 -0.110 -0.076 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1119.39 1121.39 1115.19 1116.52 1118.06 1118.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1120.24 1121.97 1123.76 1123.85 1124.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.001 -0.225 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.33 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.001 -0.225 0.000 0.051 0.000 -0.011 0.000 0.003 0.000 -.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 495011 2 0.006 0.067 -0.036 2 495012 2 0.081 0.046 0.003 3 495021 2 0.071 0.132 -0.236 4 495022 2 0.079 0.027 -0.268 5 495031 2 0.106 0.026 -0.323 6 495032 2 0.069 -0.179 -0.219 7 495041 2 0.029 -0.158 -0.044 8 495042 2 0.080 0.140 0.170 9 495051 2 0.011 0.044 0.065 10 495052 2 0.007 -0.021 0.045 11 495081 2 0.026 0.089 -0.014 12 495082 2 0.134 0.280 0.143 13 495091 2 0.020 0.078 -0.109 14 495092 2 0.002 0.012 0.015 15 495101 2 0.007 -0.024 -0.060 16 495102 2 0.053 0.087 -0.205 17 495111 2 0.018 0.068 -0.108 18 495112 2 0.018 0.039 -0.077 19 495141 2 0.051 0.202 -0.077 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 495142 2 0.047 0.175 0.030 21 495151 2 0.015 0.062 -0.029 22 495152 2 0.043 0.128 -0.176 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.044 0.060 -0.069 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.036 0.103 0.129 MEDIAN 2 0.036 0.065 -0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.055 0.102 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.002 -0.179 -0.323 LOWER HINGE 2 0.015 0.026 -0.176 UPPER HINGE 2 0.071 0.128 0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.134 0.280 0.170 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 495011 1913 1977 65 1.000 0.274 0.199 4.003 0.298 0.000 2 495012 1914 1977 64 1.000 0.264 -0.019 3.592 0.321 0.001 3 495021 1882 1977 96 1.000 0.320 0.467 3.065 0.369 -0.017 4 495022 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.331 0.341 3.513 0.393 -0.021 5 495031 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.280 0.532 3.550 0.317 -0.004 6 495032 1922 1977 56 1.000 0.278 0.298 4.164 0.329 0.003 7 495041 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.219 -0.102 3.290 0.269 0.001 8 495042 1885 1977 93 1.000 0.218 -0.272 2.851 0.255 -0.029 9 495051 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.266 0.989 5.426 0.294 -0.004 10 495052 1864 1977 114 1.000 0.230 0.376 4.586 0.258 0.003 11 495081 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.288 -0.015 3.547 0.334 -0.007 12 495082 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.320 0.083 3.894 0.380 0.014 13 495091 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.324 0.230 3.420 0.371 -0.007 14 495092 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.316 0.135 2.831 0.367 0.000 15 495101 1918 1977 60 1.000 0.285 0.171 4.133 0.307 0.004 16 495102 1917 1977 61 1.000 0.245 -1.115 6.533 0.303 0.014 17 495111 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.262 1.330 6.048 0.275 0.009 18 495112 1893 1977 85 1.000 0.215 0.642 3.675 0.240 -0.008 19 495141 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.557 0.679 2.774 0.680 0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 495142 1820 1977 158 1.001 0.560 0.579 3.698 0.693 -0.002 21 495151 1900 1977 78 1.000 0.292 0.660 4.005 0.340 -0.004 22 495152 1897 1977 81 1.000 0.347 0.444 4.555 0.388 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 94 1.000 0.304 0.301 3.961 0.354 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.091 0.484 0.981 0.117 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 92 1.000 0.283 0.319 3.686 0.325 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.059 0.496 0.744 0.077 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.215 -1.115 2.774 0.240 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 65 1.000 0.262 0.083 3.420 0.294 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.320 0.579 4.164 0.371 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 158 1.001 0.560 1.330 6.533 0.693 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.214 0.197 0.013 -0.321 3.091 -0.434 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.434 SERIES 495011 AND 495032 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 495021 AND 495022 92 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 6. 21. 120. RBAR 0.414 0.243 0.349 SDEV 0.218 0.198 0.132 SERR 0.089 0.043 0.012 EPS 0.867 0.838 0.917 NSS 9.3 16.0 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.984 0.308 0.319 4.368 0.376 -0.180 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.234 0.104 0.148 41 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.42 1.02 1.11 1.53 5.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.178 0.042 0.002 -0.033 -0.080 0.087 -0.075 0.048 -0.130 -0.028 PACF -0.178 0.010 0.011 -0.032 -0.095 0.061 -0.046 0.024 -0.128 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.159 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.170 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 -0.181 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.002 0.007 -0.050 -0.075 0.067 -0.052 0.015 -0.130 -0.081 PACF 0.002 -0.002 0.007 -0.050 -0.075 0.067 -0.052 0.014 -0.141 -0.079 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.164 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.002 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1820 1977 158 0.984 0.310 0.393 4.441 0.353 -0.003 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.212 0.024 -0.015 -0.069 0.058 -0.011 0.021 -0.103 -0.100 PACF -0.003 -0.212 0.023 -0.062 -0.061 0.043 -0.040 0.047 -0.128 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.169 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.048 -0.004 -0.218 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES