RUN: SPAI001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SPAI007E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SPAI007E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 664 1 Torrecilla, Ronda WIDTH_EARLY ABPN - 664 2 Spain Spanish fir 1650 3640-505 1728 1982 - 664 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 664011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1851 1851 / 1961 1961 / 1963 1963 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 664012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 664022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1872 1872 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 664031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1809 1809 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 664032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 664041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 664051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1931 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 664071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1763 1764 / 1904 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 664092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1922 1922 / 1961 1961 / 1963 1964 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 664111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 664121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1805 1805 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 664122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1854 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 664131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1876 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 664011 1807 1982 176 0.630 0.312 0.499 3.438 0.197 0.872 2 664012 1807 1982 176 0.426 0.253 0.308 2.858 0.269 0.865 3 664021 1808 1982 175 0.700 0.342 0.910 3.799 0.200 0.838 4 664022 1841 1981 141 0.714 0.215 0.220 3.040 0.155 0.764 5 664031 1767 1982 216 0.758 0.290 1.396 4.423 0.158 0.798 6 664032 1779 1982 204 0.686 0.327 1.538 6.298 0.224 0.658 7 664041 1790 1982 193 0.464 0.208 0.771 3.441 0.221 0.781 8 664042 1771 1982 212 0.637 0.345 0.915 3.519 0.241 0.840 9 664051 1795 1982 188 0.772 0.431 1.039 4.733 0.260 0.721 10 664052 1789 1982 194 0.964 0.374 0.597 3.162 0.201 0.785 11 664071 1728 1945 218 1.037 0.520 0.704 3.192 0.175 0.817 12 664072 1749 1945 197 1.086 0.590 0.573 2.278 0.169 0.901 13 664081 1817 1982 166 0.924 0.438 0.086 2.332 0.193 0.869 14 664082 1817 1982 166 0.715 0.313 0.522 3.010 0.194 0.835 15 664091 1794 1982 189 0.546 0.312 0.987 3.462 0.233 0.804 16 664092 1808 1982 175 0.689 0.643 1.738 7.169 0.307 0.838 17 664111 1861 1982 122 1.094 0.330 2.525 14.757 0.204 0.462 18 664112 1807 1982 176 1.092 0.499 1.014 3.129 0.165 0.866 19 664121 1795 1982 188 0.658 0.391 1.056 4.007 0.216 0.880 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 664122 1755 1982 228 0.805 0.435 0.373 2.321 0.207 0.880 21 664131 1795 1982 188 0.556 0.269 0.969 3.796 0.250 0.795 22 664132 1802 1982 181 0.676 0.292 1.176 4.610 0.222 0.781 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1728 TO 1982 255 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 184 0.756 0.370 0.905 4.217 0.212 0.802 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.199 0.115 0.554 2.639 0.038 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 183 0.707 0.336 0.913 3.451 0.206 0.826 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.287 0.143 0.533 1.382 0.040 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.426 0.208 0.086 2.278 0.155 0.462 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 173 0.637 0.292 0.522 3.040 0.193 0.781 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 197 0.924 0.435 1.056 4.423 0.233 0.866 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.094 0.643 2.525 14.757 0.307 0.901 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.451 0.338 0.022 -1.246 4.024 -0.621 0.869 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.621 SERIES 664081 AND 664131 166 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.869 SERIES 664071 AND 664072 197 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 15. 78. 190. 210. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.539 0.539 0.407 0.278 0.232 0.361 0.327 0.229 SDEV 0.051 0.144 0.307 0.238 0.243 0.299 0.297 0.368 SERR 0.030 0.037 0.035 0.017 0.017 0.020 0.022 0.027 EPS 0.883 0.941 0.931 0.891 0.868 0.926 0.913 0.860 NSS 6.5 13.8 19.6 21.2 21.9 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1982 255 0.909 0.452 1.110 4.443 0.148 0.844 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.042 -0.013 0.294 78 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.46 1.00 1.09 1.56 6.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 188. 22. 122. 175. 197. 228. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.840 0.808 0.742 0.718 0.726 0.745 0.765 0.754 0.731 0.725 PACF 0.840 0.348 0.026 0.106 0.217 0.210 0.167 0.035 -0.008 0.095 95% C.L. 0.125 0.195 0.242 0.275 0.303 0.329 0.355 0.380 0.402 0.423 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.798 0.607 0.311 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 664011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00484178 1.05489349 2 664012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00421454 0.79769999 3 664021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00474212 1.11724925 4 664022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206459 0.86090136 5 664031 1 0.96157175 0.02887468 0.00000000 0.60826164 6 664032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00272727 0.96461886 7 664041 1 0.76454890 0.00631674 0.00000000 0.02169406 8 664042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00398325 1.06133902 9 664051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00488380 1.21388221 10 664052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00420870 1.37467813 11 664071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00694465 1.79802907 12 664072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00884322 1.96116436 13 664081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00806573 1.59764516 14 664082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00564629 1.18604386 15 664091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00424183 0.94895250 16 664092 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 664111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022616 1.10680544 18 664112 1 1.67690492 0.01159444 0.00000000 0.38164636 19 664121 1 1.31886637 0.01275489 0.00000000 0.16418594 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 664122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00533151 1.41381991 21 664131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00344108 0.23155990 22 664132 1 0.78973901 0.04783379 0.00000000 0.58671159 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 664011 1807 1982 176 0.986 0.308 0.143 2.871 0.195 0.703 2 664012 1807 1982 176 0.976 0.386 1.097 5.984 0.274 0.588 3 664021 1808 1982 175 1.014 0.399 1.345 5.400 0.198 0.728 4 664022 1841 1981 141 0.998 0.288 0.848 4.065 0.154 0.731 5 664031 1767 1982 216 0.999 0.239 0.581 3.031 0.158 0.620 6 664032 1779 1982 204 0.998 0.396 1.272 5.543 0.224 0.624 7 664041 1790 1982 193 1.002 0.330 0.700 4.235 0.224 0.594 8 664042 1771 1982 212 1.015 0.401 0.669 3.799 0.241 0.711 9 664051 1795 1982 188 1.007 0.494 1.304 7.370 0.260 0.674 10 664052 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.310 0.560 3.616 0.200 0.622 11 664071 1728 1945 218 1.019 0.297 0.534 3.145 0.174 0.692 12 664072 1749 1945 197 1.012 0.275 0.735 3.716 0.168 0.655 13 664081 1817 1982 166 0.993 0.249 0.133 2.855 0.193 0.510 14 664082 1817 1982 166 1.005 0.228 0.441 3.227 0.193 0.416 15 664091 1794 1982 189 1.014 0.364 0.722 3.388 0.232 0.625 16 664092 1808 1982 175 0.988 0.496 1.790 8.436 0.307 0.671 17 664111 1861 1982 122 1.000 0.300 2.513 14.548 0.201 0.459 18 664112 1807 1982 176 1.001 0.259 1.161 4.903 0.165 0.617 19 664121 1795 1982 188 0.998 0.355 0.549 3.592 0.217 0.742 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 664122 1755 1982 228 0.999 0.340 0.576 3.298 0.206 0.748 21 664131 1795 1982 188 1.014 0.393 1.612 7.695 0.249 0.549 22 664132 1802 1982 181 0.999 0.363 0.956 4.733 0.221 0.691 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 1.002 0.339 0.920 4.975 0.211 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.011 0.074 0.561 2.681 0.039 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.335 0.728 3.932 0.203 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.014 0.106 0.712 2.245 0.039 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.976 0.228 0.133 2.855 0.154 0.416 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 175 0.998 0.288 0.560 3.298 0.193 0.594 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 197 1.012 0.393 1.272 5.543 0.232 0.703 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.019 0.496 2.513 14.548 0.307 0.748 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 664011 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 664012 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 664021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 664022 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 664031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 664032 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 664041 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 664042 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 664051 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 664052 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 664071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 664072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 664081 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 664082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 664091 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 664092 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 664111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 664112 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 664121 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 664122 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 664131 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 664132 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 664011 1807 1982 176 0.995 0.272 0.300 3.477 0.195 0.587 2 664012 1807 1982 176 0.995 0.385 1.815 9.788 0.274 0.470 3 664021 1808 1982 175 0.992 0.321 1.016 4.488 0.199 0.646 4 664022 1841 1981 141 0.995 0.207 0.856 4.149 0.153 0.533 5 664031 1767 1982 216 0.999 0.214 0.489 3.375 0.158 0.543 6 664032 1779 1982 204 0.993 0.373 1.622 7.085 0.224 0.593 7 664041 1790 1982 193 0.995 0.285 0.193 3.354 0.224 0.502 8 664042 1771 1982 212 0.990 0.342 0.384 3.661 0.240 0.645 9 664051 1795 1982 188 0.984 0.453 1.788 10.278 0.259 0.619 10 664052 1789 1982 194 0.994 0.289 0.631 3.888 0.199 0.581 11 664071 1728 1945 218 0.994 0.231 0.133 2.862 0.174 0.512 12 664072 1749 1945 197 0.995 0.221 0.273 3.416 0.167 0.520 13 664081 1817 1982 166 0.999 0.246 0.350 3.097 0.193 0.475 14 664082 1817 1982 166 0.999 0.220 0.499 3.534 0.193 0.378 15 664091 1794 1982 189 0.991 0.293 0.370 3.104 0.232 0.470 16 664092 1808 1982 175 0.993 0.463 1.488 6.975 0.307 0.642 17 664111 1861 1982 122 0.997 0.272 2.451 13.582 0.201 0.371 18 664112 1807 1982 176 0.996 0.218 1.156 5.141 0.165 0.481 19 664121 1795 1982 188 0.998 0.348 0.475 3.326 0.216 0.731 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 664122 1755 1982 228 0.994 0.312 0.559 3.941 0.205 0.700 21 664131 1795 1982 188 0.997 0.336 0.884 4.899 0.249 0.476 22 664132 1802 1982 181 0.997 0.300 0.599 4.236 0.221 0.582 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 0.995 0.300 0.833 5.075 0.211 0.548 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.003 0.074 0.631 2.805 0.039 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 0.995 0.291 0.579 3.914 0.203 0.538 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.004 0.111 0.786 1.766 0.039 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 122 0.984 0.207 0.133 2.862 0.153 0.371 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 175 0.993 0.231 0.370 3.375 0.193 0.476 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 197 0.997 0.342 1.156 5.141 0.232 0.619 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 0.999 0.463 2.451 13.582 0.307 0.731 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.278 0.148 0.010 -0.420 2.834 -0.144 0.596 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.144 SERIES 664022 AND 664051 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.596 SERIES 664042 AND 664111 122 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 15. 78. 190. 210. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.573 0.522 0.336 0.240 0.243 0.332 0.323 0.292 SDEV 0.092 0.135 0.231 0.210 0.209 0.228 0.281 0.260 SERR 0.053 0.035 0.026 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.020 0.019 EPS 0.897 0.938 0.908 0.870 0.876 0.916 0.912 0.895 NSS 6.5 13.8 19.6 21.2 21.9 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1982 255 0.981 0.176 0.232 2.626 0.151 0.432 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.297 0.175 0.028 91 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.73 1.01 1.15 1.88 38.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.430 0.209 0.026 0.001 -0.039 -0.071 -0.005 0.017 -0.023 -0.061 PACF 0.430 0.029 -0.090 0.018 -0.035 -0.054 0.066 0.011 -0.063 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.125 0.147 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.152 0.152 0.152 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.191 0.437 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 0.194 0.065 0.032 0.006 -0.070 -0.003 0.012 0.010 -0.051 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.454 2 0.461 -0.015 3 0.461 -0.005 -0.023 4 0.461 -0.005 -0.030 0.017 5 0.462 -0.005 -0.031 0.022 -0.012 6 0.461 -0.003 -0.033 0.022 0.028 -0.087 7 0.468 -0.005 -0.035 0.024 0.029 -0.124 0.079 8 0.468 -0.005 -0.035 0.024 0.029 -0.124 0.080 -0.001 9 0.468 -0.005 -0.036 0.025 0.029 -0.124 0.080 0.003 -0.008 10 0.467 -0.005 -0.031 0.016 0.031 -0.123 0.077 0.003 0.023 -0.067 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1967.14 1910.13 1912.08 1913.94 1915.87 1917.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1917.89 1918.27 1920.27 1922.26 1923.12 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 126.03 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.454 0.207 0.094 0.043 0.019 0.009 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 664011 1 0.353 0.588 2 664012 1 0.250 0.472 3 664021 1 0.433 0.647 4 664022 1 0.294 0.542 5 664031 1 0.296 0.544 6 664032 1 0.356 0.595 7 664041 1 0.255 0.504 8 664042 1 0.423 0.646 9 664051 1 0.389 0.623 10 664052 1 0.342 0.584 11 664071 1 0.287 0.526 12 664072 1 0.291 0.534 13 664081 1 0.234 0.484 14 664082 1 0.150 0.379 15 664091 1 0.243 0.476 16 664092 1 0.422 0.648 17 664111 1 0.140 0.372 18 664112 1 0.233 0.482 19 664121 1 0.550 0.739 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 664122 1 0.505 0.702 21 664131 1 0.235 0.479 22 664132 1 0.350 0.591 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.320 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.095 MEDIAN 1 0.295 0.543 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.146 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.140 0.372 LOWER HINGE 1 0.243 0.482 UPPER HINGE 1 0.389 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.550 0.739 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 664011 1807 1982 176 1.000 0.220 0.495 4.601 0.248 -0.064 2 664012 1807 1982 176 1.000 0.339 1.835 10.184 0.340 -0.087 3 664021 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.245 0.709 4.115 0.247 0.102 4 664022 1841 1981 141 1.000 0.174 0.561 3.621 0.188 0.002 5 664031 1767 1982 216 1.000 0.179 0.415 3.493 0.198 -0.004 6 664032 1779 1982 204 1.000 0.299 1.332 7.222 0.280 0.036 7 664041 1790 1982 193 1.000 0.246 0.265 3.911 0.276 -0.021 8 664042 1771 1982 212 1.000 0.261 0.532 4.452 0.298 -0.063 9 664051 1795 1982 188 1.000 0.353 3.174 24.135 0.322 -0.028 10 664052 1789 1982 194 1.000 0.235 0.923 4.563 0.255 -0.025 11 664071 1728 1945 218 1.000 0.195 0.209 2.900 0.221 -0.075 12 664072 1749 1945 197 1.000 0.187 0.131 3.861 0.215 -0.036 13 664081 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.215 0.214 3.621 0.252 0.003 14 664082 1817 1982 166 1.000 0.203 0.463 3.392 0.223 0.031 15 664091 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.258 0.827 4.161 0.271 -0.068 16 664092 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.352 0.841 5.972 0.402 -0.047 17 664111 1861 1982 122 1.000 0.252 2.474 13.941 0.231 0.018 18 664112 1807 1982 176 1.000 0.191 0.776 4.804 0.209 -0.012 19 664121 1795 1982 188 1.000 0.234 0.178 3.359 0.272 -0.061 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 664122 1755 1982 228 1.000 0.222 0.236 2.850 0.270 -0.111 21 664131 1795 1982 188 1.000 0.295 1.596 8.218 0.283 0.044 22 664132 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.240 0.727 4.481 0.270 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 185 1.000 0.245 0.860 5.994 0.262 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.000 0.054 0.787 4.844 0.050 0.050 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.238 0.635 4.306 0.262 -0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.058 0.658 2.351 0.058 0.069 MINIMUM VALUE 122 1.000 0.174 0.131 2.850 0.188 -0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.203 0.265 3.621 0.223 -0.063 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 197 1.000 0.261 0.923 5.972 0.280 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 228 1.000 0.353 3.174 24.135 0.402 0.102 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.350 0.122 0.008 -0.206 2.744 0.016 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.016 SERIES 664021 AND 664092 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 664042 AND 664111 122 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.88 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 15. 78. 190. 210. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.458 0.483 0.398 0.363 0.342 0.349 0.369 0.376 SDEV 0.099 0.117 0.159 0.148 0.141 0.178 0.204 0.179 SERR 0.057 0.030 0.018 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.845 0.928 0.928 0.924 0.919 0.922 0.927 0.926 NSS 6.5 13.8 19.6 21.2 21.9 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1982 255 0.989 0.158 0.231 2.794 0.193 -0.127 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.282 0.137 0.018 96 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.10 1.00 1.14 2.24 16.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.85 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.126 0.017 -0.117 0.026 -0.021 -0.078 0.023 0.058 -0.025 -0.018 PACF -0.126 0.001 -0.117 -0.004 -0.019 -0.099 0.003 0.057 -0.032 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.128 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.014 -0.115 0.009 -0.029 -0.080 0.021 0.059 -0.020 -0.031 PACF 0.002 -0.014 -0.115 0.009 -0.033 -0.094 0.022 0.050 -0.041 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1728 1982 255 0.989 0.174 0.206 2.651 0.149 0.429 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.427 0.137 -0.041 -0.035 -0.064 -0.079 -0.003 0.031 -0.023 -0.058 PACF 0.427 -0.056 -0.097 0.032 -0.059 -0.048 0.069 0.007 -0.073 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.125 0.146 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.150 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.191 0.433 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.50 MINUTES