RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED010E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED010E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 351 1 Nyteboda WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 351 2 Sweeden Norway spruce -999 5609-1404 1815 1976 - 351 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 0.988 0.683 1.423 4.522 0.226 0.921 2 351031 1861 1976 116 1.071 0.728 1.340 3.993 0.253 0.889 3 351041 1864 1976 113 1.339 0.553 1.065 3.429 0.214 0.784 4 351051 1883 1976 94 1.298 1.005 1.318 3.540 0.214 0.892 5 351061 1815 1976 162 1.289 1.073 2.128 6.972 0.196 0.939 6 351071 1868 1976 109 1.369 0.867 0.447 2.147 0.213 0.923 7 351081 1827 1976 150 0.914 0.765 2.158 7.132 0.244 0.866 8 351091 1833 1976 144 0.534 0.235 0.443 3.225 0.322 0.626 9 351101 1841 1976 136 0.774 0.495 0.944 3.004 0.225 0.900 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 9 FROM 1815 TO 1976 162 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.064 0.712 1.252 4.218 0.234 0.860 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.289 0.261 0.619 1.734 0.037 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 1.071 0.728 1.318 3.540 0.225 0.892 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.383 0.314 0.480 1.297 0.030 0.055 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.534 0.235 0.443 2.147 0.196 0.626 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.914 0.553 0.944 3.225 0.214 0.866 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.298 0.867 1.423 4.522 0.244 0.921 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.369 1.073 2.158 7.132 0.322 0.939 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.455 0.295 0.049 -0.429 2.110 -0.163 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.163 SERIES 351051 AND 351091 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 351021 AND 351071 108 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.437 0.257 0.279 0.346 SDEV 0.090 0.300 0.419 0.223 SERR 0.037 0.057 0.070 0.037 EPS 0.845 0.752 0.777 0.827 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 1.312 1.047 2.173 7.397 0.160 0.941 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.013 -0.005 0.462 57 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.28 3.92 1.00 1.32 5.24 29.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 129. 31. 94. 113. 144. 162. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.936 0.895 0.843 0.787 0.759 0.723 0.688 0.628 0.567 0.513 PACF 0.936 0.160 -0.087 -0.080 0.183 0.008 -0.066 -0.251 -0.077 0.068 95% C.L. 0.157 0.261 0.328 0.378 0.416 0.449 0.477 0.501 0.520 0.535 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.905 0.723 0.237 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 351021 1 2.51049948 0.02951190 0.00000000 0.35307094 2 351031 1 2.51949549 0.02036725 0.00000000 0.11472238 3 351041 1 1.65273917 0.08526236 0.00000000 1.17514956 4 351051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 351061 1 4.30702496 0.04003125 0.00000000 0.63877231 6 351071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02505171 2.74720192 7 351081 1 3.06795287 0.04535267 0.00000000 0.47393787 8 351091 1 0.47976345 0.05704414 0.00000000 0.47680256 9 351101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00724391 1.26981044 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 0.992 0.267 0.178 2.512 0.225 0.521 2 351031 1861 1976 116 1.005 0.310 0.496 3.221 0.252 0.523 3 351041 1864 1976 113 0.999 0.333 0.640 3.357 0.212 0.683 4 351051 1883 1976 94 0.991 0.329 0.900 3.470 0.209 0.649 5 351061 1815 1976 162 1.002 0.337 1.045 4.228 0.194 0.707 6 351071 1868 1976 109 1.320 1.954 7.255 53.700 0.224 0.579 7 351081 1827 1976 150 1.003 0.381 1.501 6.682 0.242 0.710 8 351091 1833 1976 144 1.000 0.411 0.528 4.365 0.320 0.609 9 351101 1841 1976 136 0.977 0.488 1.287 4.437 0.223 0.849 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.032 0.534 1.537 9.552 0.234 0.648 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.108 0.536 2.184 16.597 0.037 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.337 0.900 4.228 0.224 0.649 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.011 0.082 0.759 1.080 0.030 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.977 0.267 0.178 2.512 0.194 0.521 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.992 0.329 0.528 3.357 0.212 0.579 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.003 0.411 1.287 4.437 0.242 0.707 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.320 1.954 7.255 53.700 0.320 0.849 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 351021 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 351031 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 351041 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 351051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 351061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 351071 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 351081 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 351091 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 351101 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 0.997 0.236 0.000 2.475 0.225 0.314 2 351031 1861 1976 116 0.997 0.295 0.413 3.286 0.251 0.482 3 351041 1864 1976 113 0.995 0.314 0.807 3.649 0.211 0.662 4 351051 1883 1976 94 0.995 0.305 0.912 3.658 0.209 0.605 5 351061 1815 1976 162 0.995 0.272 0.586 2.977 0.194 0.590 6 351071 1868 1976 109 1.020 0.444 1.725 11.171 0.222 0.675 7 351081 1827 1976 150 0.998 0.356 1.113 5.078 0.242 0.679 8 351091 1833 1976 144 0.992 0.371 0.389 5.188 0.319 0.514 9 351101 1841 1976 136 0.981 0.358 0.502 3.030 0.224 0.697 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.997 0.328 0.716 4.501 0.233 0.580 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.010 0.062 0.499 2.665 0.036 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 0.995 0.314 0.586 3.649 0.224 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.003 0.063 0.499 2.048 0.031 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.981 0.236 0.000 2.475 0.194 0.314 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.995 0.295 0.413 3.030 0.211 0.514 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.997 0.358 0.912 5.078 0.242 0.675 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.020 0.444 1.725 11.171 0.319 0.697 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.149 0.194 0.032 0.224 2.761 -0.234 0.580 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.234 SERIES 351031 AND 351071 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.580 SERIES 351031 AND 351041 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.237 0.239 0.161 0.135 SDEV 0.130 0.245 0.272 0.277 SERR 0.053 0.046 0.045 0.046 EPS 0.686 0.733 0.633 0.584 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 1.003 0.177 0.009 2.979 0.166 0.385 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.210 0.030 32 130 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.71 1.47 1.01 1.24 2.71 38.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.182 0.059 -0.035 -0.038 -0.083 -0.132 -0.067 -0.018 -0.047 PACF 0.383 0.042 -0.028 -0.066 -0.003 -0.064 -0.089 0.025 0.025 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.157 0.179 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.187 0.188 0.188 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.153 0.390 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 0.241 0.074 -0.028 -0.107 -0.123 -0.228 -0.173 -0.120 -0.045 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.450 2 0.428 0.049 3 0.431 0.076 -0.064 4 0.427 0.081 -0.037 -0.063 5 0.422 0.078 -0.030 -0.029 -0.080 6 0.419 0.077 -0.031 -0.026 -0.064 -0.038 7 0.412 0.066 -0.036 -0.031 -0.051 0.034 -0.172 8 0.411 0.066 -0.036 -0.031 -0.051 0.034 -0.171 -0.004 9 0.411 0.065 -0.036 -0.031 -0.051 0.034 -0.171 -0.002 -0.004 10 0.411 0.065 -0.033 -0.032 -0.050 0.034 -0.170 -0.003 -0.011 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 896.52 861.94 863.56 864.90 866.25 867.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 868.96 866.07 868.07 870.06 872.01 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.450 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.21 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.33 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.450 0.202 0.091 0.041 0.018 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 351021 1 0.172 0.315 2 351031 1 0.258 0.490 3 351041 1 0.451 0.670 4 351051 1 0.377 0.609 5 351061 1 0.397 0.592 6 351071 1 0.626 0.787 7 351081 1 0.465 0.680 8 351091 1 0.274 0.519 9 351101 1 0.511 0.703 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.392 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.141 0.140 MEDIAN 1 0.397 0.609 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.191 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.172 0.315 LOWER HINGE 1 0.274 0.519 UPPER HINGE 1 0.465 0.680 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.626 0.787 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.223 -0.010 2.513 0.257 -0.087 2 351031 1861 1976 116 1.000 0.257 0.113 2.949 0.307 -0.068 3 351041 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.233 0.208 2.968 0.258 0.053 4 351051 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.242 0.576 3.433 0.268 -0.056 5 351061 1815 1976 162 1.000 0.219 0.201 3.059 0.261 -0.158 6 351071 1868 1976 109 1.000 0.273 1.918 10.580 0.251 0.202 7 351081 1827 1976 150 1.000 0.261 0.429 3.279 0.294 0.047 8 351091 1833 1976 144 1.000 0.317 0.518 6.515 0.356 -0.032 9 351101 1841 1976 136 1.000 0.254 0.236 3.990 0.294 -0.124 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.253 0.465 4.365 0.283 -0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.030 0.577 2.611 0.034 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.254 0.236 3.279 0.268 -0.056 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.028 0.317 1.022 0.037 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.219 -0.010 2.513 0.251 -0.158 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.233 0.201 2.968 0.258 -0.087 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.261 0.518 3.990 0.294 0.047 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.317 1.918 10.580 0.356 0.202 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.237 0.137 0.023 0.190 3.007 -0.017 0.583 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.017 SERIES 351071 AND 351091 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.583 SERIES 351031 AND 351041 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.338 0.277 0.253 0.268 SDEV 0.132 0.180 0.156 0.138 SERR 0.054 0.034 0.026 0.023 EPS 0.782 0.770 0.753 0.767 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 0.999 0.156 -0.089 2.713 0.193 -0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.151 0.091 0.087 33 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.85 1.01 1.20 3.05 124.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.144 -0.049 0.003 -0.073 0.038 0.027 -0.172 -0.006 0.053 0.034 PACF -0.144 -0.071 -0.015 -0.081 0.015 0.026 -0.167 -0.062 0.028 0.042 95% C.L. 0.157 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.166 0.166 0.167 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.026 -0.147 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.069 -0.017 -0.070 0.036 0.007 -0.176 -0.026 0.060 0.037 PACF -0.013 -0.069 -0.019 -0.076 0.031 -0.003 -0.175 -0.036 0.041 0.028 95% C.L. 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.164 0.164 0.164 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 1.000 0.169 -0.048 2.829 0.156 0.401 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.398 0.107 0.005 -0.052 -0.017 -0.070 -0.181 -0.084 0.013 0.005 PACF 0.398 -0.061 -0.019 -0.049 0.029 -0.085 -0.150 0.056 0.046 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.157 0.180 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.187 0.188 0.188 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.166 0.402 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.44 MINUTES