RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED010P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED010P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 351 1 Nyteboda LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 351 2 Sweeden Norway spruce -999 5609-1404 1815 1976 - 351 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 3.904 1.045 -0.130 3.474 0.282 0.166 2 351031 1861 1976 116 3.126 1.087 0.146 3.658 0.297 0.432 3 351041 1864 1976 113 3.582 1.256 0.609 2.675 0.212 0.756 4 351051 1883 1976 94 3.374 1.005 0.758 4.087 0.238 0.521 5 351061 1815 1976 162 2.483 0.835 0.231 3.040 0.235 0.590 6 351071 1868 1976 109 3.777 1.302 0.801 4.052 0.226 0.602 7 351081 1827 1976 150 3.395 0.880 0.112 3.715 0.212 0.378 8 351091 1833 1976 144 5.781 1.087 0.959 4.704 0.160 0.321 9 351101 1841 1976 136 4.331 0.903 0.344 2.947 0.135 0.664 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 9 FROM 1815 TO 1976 162 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 3.750 1.044 0.425 3.595 0.222 0.492 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.920 0.161 0.371 0.641 0.052 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 3.582 1.045 0.344 3.658 0.226 0.521 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.531 0.184 0.612 1.012 0.026 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 94 2.483 0.835 -0.130 2.675 0.135 0.166 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 3.374 0.903 0.146 3.040 0.212 0.378 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 3.904 1.087 0.758 4.052 0.238 0.602 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 5.781 1.302 0.959 4.704 0.297 0.756 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.163 0.163 0.027 -0.427 3.441 -0.273 0.471 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.273 SERIES 351041 AND 351071 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.471 SERIES 351031 AND 351041 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.199 0.100 0.117 0.269 SDEV 0.113 0.216 0.229 0.172 SERR 0.046 0.041 0.038 0.029 EPS 0.636 0.492 0.545 0.768 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 3.382 0.978 -0.949 3.952 0.187 0.657 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.655 0.358 -0.089 34 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 1.12 1.00 1.10 2.23 6.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 129. 31. 94. 113. 144. 162. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.653 0.632 0.565 0.498 0.481 0.443 0.443 0.391 0.354 0.304 PACF 0.653 0.358 0.132 0.022 0.077 0.041 0.081 -0.021 -0.032 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.157 0.214 0.256 0.285 0.306 0.324 0.339 0.353 0.363 0.371 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.540 0.331 0.317 0.182 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 351021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01172697 3.14208817 2 351031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00750802 2.68681550 3 351041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00407454 3.81437254 4 351051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02164390 2.34574461 5 351061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00392838 2.16304660 6 351071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02099778 2.62172794 7 351081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00810424 2.78313017 8 351091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121073 5.69354105 9 351101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00436508 4.03224182 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.239 -0.362 4.045 0.280 -0.025 2 351031 1861 1976 116 0.999 0.344 0.335 3.683 0.295 0.429 3 351041 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.342 0.421 2.453 0.210 0.732 4 351051 1883 1976 94 1.002 0.249 0.797 4.834 0.235 0.296 5 351061 1815 1976 162 0.999 0.338 0.473 3.166 0.234 0.597 6 351071 1868 1976 109 0.996 0.284 0.762 3.874 0.224 0.402 7 351081 1827 1976 150 0.999 0.238 0.487 6.753 0.210 0.254 8 351091 1833 1976 144 1.000 0.188 0.942 4.639 0.159 0.318 9 351101 1841 1976 136 1.000 0.206 0.370 2.928 0.134 0.644 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.270 0.469 4.042 0.220 0.405 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.001 0.060 0.377 1.276 0.051 0.231 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.249 0.473 3.874 0.224 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.001 0.100 0.392 1.473 0.025 0.301 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.996 0.188 -0.362 2.453 0.134 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.999 0.238 0.370 3.166 0.210 0.296 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.338 0.762 4.639 0.235 0.597 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.002 0.344 0.942 6.753 0.295 0.732 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 351021 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 351031 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 351041 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 351051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 351061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 351071 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 351081 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 351091 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 351101 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 0.999 0.232 -0.452 4.427 0.280 -0.095 2 351031 1861 1976 116 0.995 0.298 0.300 5.024 0.295 0.185 3 351041 1864 1976 113 0.987 0.251 -0.057 2.273 0.210 0.511 4 351051 1883 1976 94 0.999 0.233 0.607 4.706 0.236 0.233 5 351061 1815 1976 162 0.991 0.270 0.747 3.740 0.234 0.370 6 351071 1868 1976 109 0.998 0.257 1.952 9.622 0.224 0.136 7 351081 1827 1976 150 1.000 0.235 1.337 11.881 0.210 0.177 8 351091 1833 1976 144 0.999 0.181 1.014 5.124 0.159 0.273 9 351101 1841 1976 136 0.998 0.160 0.597 3.277 0.134 0.422 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.996 0.235 0.671 5.564 0.220 0.246 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.004 0.043 0.720 3.128 0.051 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 0.998 0.235 0.607 4.706 0.224 0.233 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.004 0.025 0.714 1.384 0.026 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.987 0.160 -0.452 2.273 0.134 -0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.995 0.232 0.300 3.740 0.210 0.177 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.999 0.257 1.014 5.124 0.236 0.370 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.298 1.952 11.881 0.295 0.511 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.187 0.123 0.020 -0.062 2.706 -0.060 0.441 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.060 SERIES 351051 AND 351091 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.441 SERIES 351031 AND 351041 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.243 0.121 0.162 0.292 SDEV 0.118 0.184 0.186 0.159 SERR 0.048 0.035 0.031 0.026 EPS 0.694 0.547 0.634 0.788 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 0.969 0.152 0.172 2.990 0.161 0.267 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.328 0.206 -0.043 37 125 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.11 2.59 1.00 1.18 3.76 12.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.266 0.138 0.124 0.028 -0.008 -0.002 -0.010 -0.034 0.010 0.063 PACF 0.266 0.072 0.076 -0.032 -0.027 -0.002 -0.005 -0.028 0.028 0.066 95% C.L. 0.157 0.168 0.171 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.077 0.269 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.164 0.058 0.105 0.012 -0.031 0.011 -0.077 -0.044 -0.005 0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.164 2 0.159 0.032 3 0.156 0.017 0.093 4 0.158 0.018 0.097 -0.021 5 0.157 0.021 0.097 -0.015 -0.038 6 0.157 0.022 0.096 -0.015 -0.040 0.013 7 0.159 0.018 0.095 -0.008 -0.038 0.026 -0.080 8 0.157 0.019 0.094 -0.008 -0.037 0.026 -0.078 -0.014 9 0.157 0.019 0.094 -0.007 -0.037 0.025 -0.078 -0.016 0.007 10 0.157 0.020 0.096 -0.008 -0.036 0.026 -0.081 -0.016 0.003 0.027 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 812.32 809.89 811.72 812.30 814.23 816.00 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 817.97 818.92 820.89 822.88 824.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.164 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.164 0.027 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 351021 1 0.015 -0.095 2 351031 1 0.058 0.188 3 351041 1 0.285 0.513 4 351051 1 0.071 0.234 5 351061 1 0.145 0.373 6 351071 1 0.019 0.136 7 351081 1 0.053 0.180 8 351091 1 0.095 0.274 9 351101 1 0.197 0.425 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.104 0.248 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.089 0.179 MEDIAN 1 0.071 0.234 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.092 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.015 -0.095 LOWER HINGE 1 0.053 0.180 UPPER HINGE 1 0.145 0.373 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.285 0.513 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 351021 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.231 -0.387 4.262 0.266 0.008 2 351031 1861 1976 116 1.000 0.292 0.188 4.779 0.316 -0.032 3 351041 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.215 -0.087 2.500 0.253 -0.087 4 351051 1883 1976 94 1.000 0.226 0.594 4.374 0.262 -0.030 5 351061 1815 1976 162 1.000 0.250 0.769 4.033 0.273 -0.034 6 351071 1868 1976 109 1.000 0.255 2.072 10.361 0.236 0.001 7 351081 1827 1976 150 1.000 0.231 1.405 12.625 0.225 -0.024 8 351091 1833 1976 144 1.000 0.174 1.107 5.341 0.179 -0.039 9 351101 1841 1976 136 1.000 0.144 0.092 3.511 0.168 -0.062 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.224 0.639 5.754 0.242 -0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.044 0.788 3.396 0.046 0.029 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.231 0.594 4.374 0.253 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.035 1.015 1.308 0.041 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.144 -0.387 2.500 0.168 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.215 0.092 4.033 0.225 -0.039 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.250 1.107 5.341 0.266 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 162 1.000 0.292 2.072 12.625 0.316 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.203 0.109 0.018 0.478 2.999 0.015 0.479 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.015 SERIES 351051 AND 351091 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.479 SERIES 351031 AND 351041 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.83 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 28. 36. 36. RBAR 0.262 0.159 0.204 0.288 SDEV 0.104 0.149 0.163 0.147 SERR 0.042 0.028 0.027 0.024 EPS 0.714 0.623 0.698 0.785 NSS 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 0.980 0.144 0.321 3.520 0.173 -0.026 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.398 0.282 -0.128 41 121 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.36 3.86 1.05 1.33 5.20 84.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 0.027 0.069 -0.024 -0.004 -0.020 -0.020 -0.046 -0.004 0.098 PACF -0.026 0.027 0.070 -0.021 -0.009 -0.024 -0.018 -0.045 -0.002 0.103 95% C.L. 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.029 0.069 -0.022 -0.005 -0.020 -0.022 -0.046 -0.002 0.095 PACF 0.001 0.029 0.069 -0.023 -0.009 -0.024 -0.019 -0.045 0.001 0.100 95% C.L. 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.159 0.159 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1815 1976 162 0.980 0.146 0.316 3.393 0.158 0.172 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.171 0.066 0.074 -0.012 -0.011 -0.025 -0.032 -0.049 0.001 0.071 PACF 0.171 0.038 0.059 -0.037 -0.010 -0.025 -0.021 -0.039 0.021 0.076 95% C.L. 0.157 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.173 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES