RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED012E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED012E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 525 1 Middagsberg.Myckelgensjš WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 525 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 280 6321-1859 1858 1978 - 525 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 525011 1869 1978 110 1.672 0.814 1.092 4.223 0.172 0.898 2 525012 1858 1978 121 1.561 0.539 0.495 3.292 0.177 0.753 3 525021 1865 1978 114 1.382 0.464 1.026 5.443 0.176 0.729 4 525022 1878 1978 101 1.377 0.539 1.325 4.728 0.157 0.829 5 525031 1907 1978 72 2.220 1.071 1.291 3.970 0.173 0.863 6 525032 1906 1978 73 2.142 0.979 1.020 3.300 0.180 0.839 7 525041 1897 1978 82 1.842 0.833 1.618 5.788 0.205 0.674 8 525042 1889 1978 90 2.496 0.885 0.923 3.118 0.173 0.768 9 525051 1893 1978 86 2.198 0.718 0.816 3.301 0.154 0.794 10 525052 1880 1978 99 2.106 0.645 0.712 2.699 0.172 0.747 11 525061 1894 1973 80 2.267 1.112 0.550 2.929 0.216 0.855 12 525062 1882 1978 97 1.650 0.670 0.447 2.442 0.201 0.806 13 525071 1889 1978 90 1.373 0.526 0.756 3.998 0.216 0.802 14 525072 1864 1978 115 1.608 0.650 1.053 3.895 0.189 0.806 15 525081 1889 1978 90 2.072 1.033 1.301 4.469 0.191 0.770 16 525082 1876 1978 103 2.037 0.951 1.265 4.997 0.211 0.831 17 525091 1913 1978 66 2.773 0.952 0.346 2.556 0.200 0.773 18 525092 1897 1978 82 2.499 0.809 0.229 2.359 0.161 0.784 19 525101 1870 1978 109 1.944 0.681 0.834 3.890 0.165 0.793 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 525102 1873 1978 106 1.956 0.796 0.520 2.985 0.153 0.877 21 525111 1895 1978 84 2.236 0.812 0.531 2.746 0.167 0.819 22 525112 1891 1978 88 2.331 0.745 -0.078 2.165 0.129 0.859 23 525121 1869 1978 110 1.203 0.317 0.335 2.744 0.182 0.611 24 525122 1876 1978 103 1.446 0.447 0.345 2.702 0.179 0.691 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1858 TO 1978 121 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 1.933 0.749 0.781 3.531 0.179 0.790 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.420 0.211 0.421 1.008 0.022 0.067 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.996 0.770 0.786 3.296 0.177 0.798 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.644 0.326 0.601 1.388 0.029 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.203 0.317 -0.078 2.165 0.129 0.611 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 83 1.585 0.592 0.471 2.723 0.166 0.761 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 2.228 0.918 1.073 4.111 0.195 0.835 MAXIMUM VALUE 121 2.773 1.112 1.618 5.788 0.216 0.898 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.567 0.208 0.013 -1.147 4.295 -0.177 0.889 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 525011 AND 525062 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.889 SERIES 525032 AND 525082 73 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 66. 253. RBAR 0.464 0.450 SDEV 0.208 0.238 SERR 0.026 0.015 EPS 0.948 0.951 NSS 21.2 23.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1858 1978 121 1.809 0.537 1.085 3.961 0.122 0.848 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.719 0.359 -0.076 32 89 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.18 1.01 1.05 1.24 6.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 94. 24. 66. 83. 108. 121. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.841 0.762 0.728 0.661 0.585 0.503 0.494 0.432 0.369 0.370 PACF 0.841 0.184 0.178 -0.043 -0.075 -0.113 0.180 -0.089 -0.020 0.125 95% C.L. 0.182 0.283 0.344 0.392 0.427 0.453 0.471 0.488 0.500 0.509 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.738 0.635 0.073 0.193 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 525011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00497293 1.94827020 2 525012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352432 1.77638841 3 525021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00520706 1.68159914 4 525022 1 2.20207620 0.14256334 0.00000000 1.23483860 5 525031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00842964 2.52809858 6 525032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00923207 2.48391557 7 525041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00740806 2.14987350 8 525042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00776656 2.14306617 9 525051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326742 2.34015608 10 525052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055114 2.13381982 11 525061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02108580 1.41302538 12 525062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01569233 0.88076675 13 525071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00392551 1.55183268 14 525072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201191 1.72451711 15 525081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00596452 1.80039203 16 525082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062404 2.06914902 17 525091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03446592 3.92779016 18 525092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01406341 3.08216810 19 525101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00688805 2.32306314 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 525102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00790463 2.37865233 21 525111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00415926 2.05930281 22 525112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021759 2.32111287 23 525121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181525 1.30374646 24 525122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00464734 1.68768132 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 525011 1869 1978 110 0.997 0.469 1.018 3.980 0.170 0.886 2 525012 1858 1978 121 0.999 0.352 1.004 4.062 0.176 0.752 3 525021 1865 1978 114 0.999 0.325 1.877 9.175 0.174 0.703 4 525022 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.312 1.227 5.017 0.153 0.754 5 525031 1907 1978 72 0.998 0.477 1.394 4.148 0.171 0.854 6 525032 1906 1978 73 0.998 0.439 0.986 3.154 0.177 0.824 7 525041 1897 1978 82 0.998 0.441 1.747 6.008 0.202 0.656 8 525042 1889 1978 90 0.999 0.342 0.962 3.256 0.172 0.734 9 525051 1893 1978 86 1.000 0.322 0.805 3.386 0.152 0.786 10 525052 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.306 0.719 2.731 0.171 0.741 11 525061 1894 1973 80 0.987 0.433 0.658 2.982 0.212 0.807 12 525062 1882 1978 97 0.998 0.314 0.809 3.632 0.199 0.642 13 525071 1889 1978 90 0.999 0.373 0.685 4.040 0.214 0.779 14 525072 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.406 1.103 3.932 0.187 0.803 15 525081 1889 1978 90 0.999 0.489 1.314 4.512 0.189 0.754 16 525082 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.468 1.278 5.001 0.209 0.823 17 525091 1913 1978 66 0.994 0.224 -0.029 3.018 0.197 0.478 18 525092 1897 1978 82 0.997 0.292 0.461 2.498 0.158 0.735 19 525101 1870 1978 109 0.998 0.330 1.027 4.422 0.164 0.777 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 525102 1873 1978 106 0.996 0.394 0.791 3.195 0.151 0.867 21 525111 1895 1978 84 0.999 0.361 0.537 2.626 0.165 0.805 22 525112 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.320 -0.074 2.156 0.128 0.850 23 525121 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.261 0.512 3.178 0.180 0.604 24 525122 1876 1978 103 0.999 0.302 0.782 3.166 0.177 0.673 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 0.998 0.365 0.900 3.887 0.177 0.754 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.003 0.073 0.461 1.444 0.021 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 0.999 0.347 0.885 3.509 0.175 0.765 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.002 0.123 0.493 1.199 0.028 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.987 0.224 -0.074 2.156 0.128 0.478 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 83 0.998 0.313 0.672 3.086 0.164 0.719 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.436 1.165 4.285 0.193 0.815 MAXIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.489 1.877 9.175 0.214 0.886 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 525011 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 525012 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 525021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 525022 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 525031 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 525032 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 525041 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 525042 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 525051 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 525052 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 525061 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 525062 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 525071 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 525072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 525081 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 525082 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 525091 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 525092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 525101 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 525102 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 525111 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 525112 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 525121 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 525122 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 525011 1869 1978 110 0.990 0.288 0.406 3.724 0.167 0.706 2 525012 1858 1978 121 0.994 0.272 0.676 3.721 0.175 0.596 3 525021 1865 1978 114 0.995 0.260 1.231 7.036 0.174 0.581 4 525022 1878 1978 101 0.994 0.233 0.466 3.849 0.152 0.632 5 525031 1907 1978 72 0.994 0.246 0.476 2.824 0.168 0.587 6 525032 1906 1978 73 0.994 0.231 1.046 5.706 0.174 0.540 7 525041 1897 1978 82 0.996 0.278 1.296 5.964 0.201 0.412 8 525042 1889 1978 90 0.994 0.206 0.448 4.298 0.172 0.412 9 525051 1893 1978 86 0.997 0.237 0.768 3.952 0.152 0.574 10 525052 1880 1978 99 0.995 0.233 0.284 2.601 0.171 0.591 11 525061 1894 1973 80 0.993 0.273 0.830 3.485 0.208 0.518 12 525062 1882 1978 97 0.990 0.252 0.311 3.306 0.198 0.494 13 525071 1889 1978 90 0.993 0.262 -0.127 4.029 0.213 0.500 14 525072 1864 1978 115 0.984 0.262 0.506 3.402 0.187 0.598 15 525081 1889 1978 90 0.985 0.314 1.140 3.586 0.186 0.556 16 525082 1876 1978 103 0.984 0.320 0.968 4.689 0.211 0.625 17 525091 1913 1978 66 0.997 0.172 -0.752 3.909 0.196 0.147 18 525092 1897 1978 82 0.997 0.186 0.077 4.077 0.158 0.379 19 525101 1870 1978 109 0.996 0.217 0.704 3.983 0.165 0.418 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 525102 1873 1978 106 0.996 0.213 0.207 2.757 0.151 0.580 21 525111 1895 1978 84 0.996 0.188 -0.003 2.728 0.162 0.508 22 525112 1891 1978 88 0.995 0.174 -0.269 3.381 0.129 0.512 23 525121 1869 1978 110 0.996 0.221 0.121 2.894 0.180 0.458 24 525122 1876 1978 103 0.997 0.212 0.446 3.464 0.177 0.374 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 0.993 0.240 0.469 3.890 0.176 0.512 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.004 0.041 0.495 1.066 0.021 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 0.995 0.235 0.457 3.722 0.174 0.529 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.003 0.054 0.635 0.709 0.028 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.984 0.172 -0.752 2.601 0.129 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 83 0.993 0.213 0.164 3.344 0.164 0.438 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.996 0.267 0.799 4.053 0.191 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 121 0.997 0.320 1.296 7.036 0.213 0.706 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.383 0.161 0.010 -0.039 2.754 -0.030 0.784 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 525012 AND 525062 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.784 SERIES 525021 AND 525022 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 66. 253. RBAR 0.404 0.431 SDEV 0.179 0.166 SERR 0.022 0.010 EPS 0.935 0.948 NSS 21.2 23.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1858 1978 121 0.996 0.150 0.266 3.694 0.122 0.512 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.296 0.168 0.010 42 79 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.46 1.00 1.09 1.55 7.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.507 0.334 0.253 0.111 -0.013 -0.155 -0.132 -0.223 -0.289 -0.185 PACF 0.507 0.103 0.066 -0.082 -0.105 -0.170 0.032 -0.137 -0.116 0.062 95% C.L. 0.182 0.224 0.240 0.248 0.250 0.250 0.253 0.255 0.262 0.272 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.270 0.513 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.523 0.356 0.281 0.133 -0.027 -0.192 -0.168 -0.279 -0.355 -0.264 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.523 2 0.464 0.113 3 0.455 0.077 0.078 4 0.462 0.084 0.119 -0.089 5 0.449 0.102 0.131 -0.019 -0.152 6 0.417 0.098 0.159 0.003 -0.059 -0.209 7 0.424 0.100 0.159 -0.003 -0.062 -0.224 0.035 8 0.430 0.065 0.149 -0.003 -0.037 -0.208 0.102 -0.158 9 0.408 0.079 0.121 -0.008 -0.037 -0.188 0.111 -0.101 -0.134 10 0.413 0.082 0.117 -0.002 -0.036 -0.187 0.107 -0.104 -0.147 0.033 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 856.27 819.52 819.95 821.21 822.25 821.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 818.00 819.85 818.78 818.59 820.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.523 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 137.75 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.523 0.274 0.143 0.075 0.039 0.021 0.011 0.006 0.003 0.0015 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 525011 1 0.546 0.728 2 525012 1 0.380 0.610 3 525021 1 0.345 0.587 4 525022 1 0.407 0.635 5 525031 1 0.367 0.605 6 525032 1 0.302 0.548 7 525041 1 0.263 0.417 8 525042 1 0.173 0.413 9 525051 1 0.376 0.613 10 525052 1 0.373 0.607 11 525061 1 0.269 0.518 12 525062 1 0.261 0.504 13 525071 1 0.261 0.509 14 525072 1 0.380 0.612 15 525081 1 0.332 0.575 16 525082 1 0.433 0.658 17 525091 1 0.023 0.149 18 525092 1 0.150 0.385 19 525101 1 0.203 0.451 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 525102 1 0.352 0.587 21 525111 1 0.260 0.509 22 525112 1 0.290 0.539 23 525121 1 0.239 0.464 24 525122 1 0.171 0.384 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.298 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.120 MEDIAN 1 0.296 0.543 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.125 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.023 0.149 LOWER HINGE 1 0.249 0.457 UPPER HINGE 1 0.374 0.608 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.546 0.728 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 525011 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.195 0.821 3.956 0.222 -0.154 2 525012 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.216 0.630 4.423 0.238 -0.053 3 525021 1865 1978 114 1.000 0.210 1.499 7.419 0.224 -0.025 4 525022 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.180 0.606 3.692 0.200 0.050 5 525031 1907 1978 72 1.000 0.195 -0.764 7.077 0.226 0.020 6 525032 1906 1978 73 1.000 0.193 0.948 6.451 0.205 0.025 7 525041 1897 1978 82 1.000 0.252 1.374 6.339 0.263 -0.137 8 525042 1889 1978 90 1.000 0.188 0.641 4.397 0.199 -0.022 9 525051 1893 1978 86 1.000 0.183 0.846 4.821 0.197 -0.059 10 525052 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.184 -0.081 2.906 0.226 -0.067 11 525061 1894 1973 80 1.000 0.234 0.677 2.974 0.252 0.002 12 525062 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.217 0.189 3.118 0.251 -0.058 13 525071 1889 1978 90 1.000 0.224 -0.509 5.290 0.258 -0.032 14 525072 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.207 0.328 3.742 0.249 -0.042 15 525081 1889 1978 90 1.000 0.256 1.962 8.104 0.232 -0.024 16 525082 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.241 0.823 4.546 0.257 0.045 17 525091 1913 1978 66 1.000 0.170 -0.753 3.939 0.205 0.005 18 525092 1897 1978 82 1.000 0.171 0.100 4.140 0.186 0.016 19 525101 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.192 0.641 4.196 0.195 -0.012 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 525102 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.172 0.451 4.159 0.190 -0.056 21 525111 1895 1978 84 1.000 0.162 -0.289 2.903 0.191 0.006 22 525112 1891 1978 88 1.000 0.145 -0.244 3.170 0.159 -0.003 23 525121 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.195 -0.103 3.466 0.221 -0.074 24 525122 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.196 0.670 4.067 0.216 -0.051 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 95 1.000 0.199 0.436 4.554 0.219 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.028 0.685 1.482 0.027 0.050 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 93 1.000 0.195 0.618 4.149 0.222 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 24 0.000 0.035 0.914 1.476 0.046 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.145 -0.764 2.903 0.159 -0.154 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.181 -0.092 3.579 0.198 -0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.216 0.822 5.055 0.244 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.256 1.962 8.104 0.263 0.050 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.396 0.115 0.007 0.310 3.110 0.087 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.087 SERIES 525012 AND 525062 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 525021 AND 525022 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1910. 1935. CORR 66. 253. RBAR 0.399 0.456 SDEV 0.141 0.123 SERR 0.017 0.008 EPS 0.934 0.952 NSS 21.2 23.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1858 1978 121 0.998 0.127 0.428 4.021 0.154 -0.089 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.339 0.206 -0.056 45 76 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.61 1.00 1.11 1.72 5.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 0.029 0.150 -0.001 0.024 -0.162 0.064 -0.091 -0.172 -0.056 PACF -0.088 0.021 0.156 0.026 0.017 -0.189 0.029 -0.082 -0.142 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.187 0.187 0.188 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.199 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.036 0.154 0.015 0.008 -0.156 0.042 -0.101 -0.188 -0.069 PACF 0.001 0.036 0.154 0.015 -0.003 -0.185 0.037 -0.095 -0.144 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.191 0.191 0.193 0.199 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1858 1978 121 0.996 0.152 0.248 3.811 0.116 0.557 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.552 0.361 0.276 0.120 -0.007 -0.133 -0.117 -0.203 -0.258 -0.178 PACF 0.552 0.081 0.069 -0.107 -0.100 -0.145 0.050 -0.136 -0.086 0.046 95% C.L. 0.182 0.231 0.249 0.259 0.260 0.260 0.263 0.264 0.270 0.278 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.315 0.558 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES