RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED013E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED013E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 527 1 Duvberg WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 527 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 550 6204-1420 1846 1978 - 527 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.068 0.367 0.591 3.030 0.223 0.669 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.321 0.764 1.457 4.757 0.239 0.819 3 527021 1917 1978 62 2.316 1.053 0.390 2.463 0.302 0.557 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.594 0.668 0.253 2.074 0.268 0.569 5 527031 1873 1978 106 0.999 0.682 2.038 7.052 0.247 0.814 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.092 0.709 2.065 7.496 0.255 0.740 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.277 0.470 0.208 2.696 0.248 0.616 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.223 0.443 0.459 3.776 0.242 0.619 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.746 0.665 0.204 2.326 0.170 0.805 10 527052 1862 1978 117 1.700 0.700 0.055 2.231 0.180 0.843 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.603 0.649 1.016 3.509 0.200 0.798 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.483 0.823 2.395 10.064 0.207 0.766 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.416 0.769 0.321 2.132 0.182 0.851 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.400 0.879 0.661 2.586 0.160 0.934 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.234 0.506 0.994 3.263 0.215 0.728 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.497 0.638 0.801 3.218 0.222 0.751 17 527091 1867 1978 112 0.915 0.325 1.603 5.960 0.206 0.684 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.415 0.661 0.459 2.226 0.190 0.853 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.643 0.572 0.248 2.556 0.175 0.790 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.219 0.598 1.096 3.807 0.202 0.821 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.571 0.816 0.736 3.450 0.187 0.893 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.402 0.677 0.790 4.566 0.223 0.793 23 527121 1898 1978 81 2.391 1.234 0.522 2.407 0.184 0.863 24 527122 1901 1978 78 2.356 1.077 0.408 2.240 0.181 0.855 25 527131 1882 1978 97 2.128 1.043 0.297 2.173 0.192 0.891 26 527132 1887 1978 92 2.477 1.248 0.553 2.678 0.167 0.930 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1846 TO 1978 133 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.557 0.732 0.793 3.644 0.210 0.779 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.442 0.242 0.633 1.976 0.035 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.450 0.679 0.572 2.863 0.204 0.802 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.466 0.225 0.695 1.481 0.057 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.915 0.325 0.055 2.074 0.160 0.557 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.234 0.598 0.321 2.326 0.182 0.728 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.700 0.823 1.016 3.807 0.239 0.853 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 2.477 1.248 2.395 10.064 0.302 0.934 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.425 0.299 0.017 -0.837 2.979 -0.451 0.903 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.451 SERIES 527072 AND 527092 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.903 SERIES 527031 AND 527032 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.436 0.425 0.534 SDEV 0.257 0.299 0.222 SERR 0.023 0.019 0.012 EPS 0.946 0.950 0.968 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 1.649 0.695 1.447 5.347 0.167 0.779 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.054 0.526 42 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.78 1.02 1.10 1.87 11.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 106. 17. 62. 99. 116. 133. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.773 0.763 0.735 0.650 0.623 0.593 0.538 0.499 0.414 0.422 PACF 0.773 0.411 0.210 -0.077 0.003 0.050 -0.021 -0.043 -0.175 0.114 95% C.L. 0.173 0.257 0.318 0.365 0.399 0.427 0.451 0.470 0.486 0.496 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.711 0.337 0.304 0.268 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054049 1.03989363 2 527012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00596988 0.99612319 3 527021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03418222 3.39238501 4 527022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02024850 2.29298496 5 527031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070212 1.03661990 6 527032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00138015 1.16534770 7 527041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00911637 1.74226141 8 527042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00502187 1.50659263 9 527051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01632425 2.64398074 10 527052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01093400 2.34519148 11 527061 1 2.17560220 0.02851645 0.00000000 1.05035293 12 527062 1 3.64046526 0.06985207 0.00000000 1.06746876 13 527071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01670353 2.39344978 14 527072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02462115 2.76629186 15 527081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000754 1.23411465 16 527082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00626459 1.12697017 17 527091 1 1.37696671 0.10831692 0.00000000 0.80708796 18 527092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01309841 0.64865667 19 527101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00392673 1.87264466 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 1 2.41046882 0.11522815 0.00000000 1.02513063 21 527111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00928231 1.07433963 22 527112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01064183 0.84817815 23 527121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00630985 2.64981484 24 527122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007221 2.35836506 25 527131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01506562 1.38992918 26 527132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02384646 1.36787868 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.345 0.634 3.109 0.221 0.659 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.998 0.546 1.262 4.047 0.237 0.787 3 527021 1917 1978 62 0.985 0.357 0.754 3.002 0.297 0.394 4 527022 1911 1978 68 0.989 0.326 0.720 3.018 0.266 0.359 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.686 2.039 6.994 0.244 0.807 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.656 2.102 7.511 0.252 0.734 7 527041 1878 1978 101 0.998 0.321 0.643 3.314 0.245 0.493 8 527042 1867 1978 112 0.998 0.355 1.052 4.918 0.240 0.582 9 527051 1870 1978 109 0.996 0.249 0.884 4.480 0.169 0.548 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.989 0.347 0.391 2.943 0.178 0.777 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.227 0.255 3.091 0.198 0.440 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.234 0.220 3.384 0.205 0.386 13 527071 1863 1978 116 0.986 0.421 1.208 5.296 0.177 0.762 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.101 0.503 3.542 21.842 0.160 0.634 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.410 0.994 3.263 0.213 0.721 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.401 0.717 3.053 0.220 0.726 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.243 0.766 4.576 0.202 0.394 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.007 0.372 0.415 2.475 0.190 0.733 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.341 0.386 2.991 0.173 0.786 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.385 0.807 3.651 0.198 0.731 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.002 0.496 0.549 2.823 0.186 0.851 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.998 0.426 0.486 3.829 0.220 0.747 23 527121 1898 1978 81 0.999 0.504 0.435 2.281 0.182 0.850 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.457 0.408 2.241 0.178 0.845 25 527131 1882 1978 97 0.994 0.441 0.258 2.342 0.191 0.846 26 527132 1887 1978 92 0.989 0.427 0.711 3.123 0.166 0.895 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.001 0.403 0.871 4.369 0.208 0.673 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.021 0.116 0.722 3.798 0.035 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.393 0.714 3.193 0.200 0.732 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.004 0.116 0.578 1.489 0.059 0.239 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.985 0.227 0.220 2.241 0.160 0.359 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.996 0.341 0.415 2.991 0.178 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.457 0.994 4.480 0.237 0.787 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.101 0.686 3.542 21.842 0.297 0.895 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 527011 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 527012 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 527021 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 527022 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 527031 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 527032 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 527041 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 527042 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 527051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 527052 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 527061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 527062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 527071 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 527072 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 527081 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 527082 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 527091 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 527092 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 527101 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 527102 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 527111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 527112 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 527121 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 527122 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 527131 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 527132 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 0.986 0.255 0.517 3.235 0.219 0.450 2 527012 1871 1978 108 0.966 0.327 0.933 4.108 0.236 0.570 3 527021 1917 1978 62 0.997 0.238 -0.020 2.795 0.296 -0.224 4 527022 1911 1978 68 0.997 0.242 0.024 2.474 0.266 0.003 5 527031 1873 1978 106 0.987 0.372 1.155 4.417 0.242 0.587 6 527032 1873 1978 106 0.983 0.368 1.217 5.554 0.249 0.523 7 527041 1878 1978 101 0.996 0.303 0.849 3.628 0.245 0.458 8 527042 1867 1978 112 0.996 0.304 0.828 4.091 0.240 0.515 9 527051 1870 1978 109 0.996 0.219 0.553 3.606 0.169 0.454 10 527052 1862 1978 117 0.993 0.214 0.188 3.415 0.177 0.460 11 527061 1846 1978 133 0.999 0.219 0.187 3.150 0.198 0.402 12 527062 1858 1978 121 0.998 0.213 -0.058 3.294 0.204 0.301 13 527071 1863 1978 116 0.979 0.287 0.905 4.883 0.176 0.614 14 527072 1869 1978 110 0.993 0.281 1.257 5.338 0.159 0.626 15 527081 1880 1978 99 0.980 0.274 0.472 2.909 0.214 0.517 16 527082 1862 1978 117 0.981 0.285 0.198 2.794 0.219 0.548 17 527091 1867 1978 112 0.997 0.221 1.088 6.024 0.202 0.283 18 527092 1863 1978 116 0.981 0.248 0.444 3.040 0.188 0.492 19 527101 1863 1978 116 0.987 0.242 -0.261 3.227 0.173 0.646 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 0.994 0.237 0.343 3.021 0.199 0.424 21 527111 1873 1978 106 0.958 0.311 0.165 2.850 0.181 0.745 22 527112 1876 1978 103 0.979 0.343 0.110 3.433 0.219 0.674 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.004 0.338 2.370 12.317 0.186 0.555 24 527122 1901 1978 78 0.996 0.263 0.441 4.221 0.178 0.568 25 527131 1882 1978 97 0.969 0.278 0.086 3.128 0.186 0.660 26 527132 1887 1978 92 0.979 0.272 -0.206 2.650 0.162 0.759 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 0.987 0.275 0.530 3.985 0.207 0.485 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.011 0.047 0.585 1.940 0.035 0.213 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 0.990 0.273 0.442 3.354 0.200 0.520 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.016 0.066 0.795 1.200 0.058 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 62 0.958 0.213 -0.261 2.474 0.159 -0.224 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.980 0.238 0.110 3.021 0.178 0.450 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 0.996 0.304 0.905 4.221 0.236 0.614 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.004 0.372 2.370 12.317 0.296 0.759 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.382 0.163 0.009 0.223 2.683 -0.011 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.011 SERIES 527072 AND 527111 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 527041 AND 527042 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.415 0.456 0.425 SDEV 0.175 0.191 0.173 SERR 0.016 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.942 0.955 0.950 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.982 0.171 0.123 3.203 0.155 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.164 0.078 0.100 42 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.63 1.02 1.11 1.74 7.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.335 0.378 0.317 0.240 0.226 0.167 0.099 0.086 -0.062 0.169 PACF 0.335 0.299 0.158 0.036 0.043 -0.003 -0.057 -0.022 -0.161 0.221 95% C.L. 0.173 0.192 0.213 0.227 0.234 0.241 0.244 0.245 0.246 0.247 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.216 0.185 0.268 0.158 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.397 0.377 0.366 0.253 0.233 0.166 0.128 0.069 -0.072 0.201 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.397 2 0.294 0.261 3 0.243 0.204 0.193 4 0.241 0.201 0.189 0.014 5 0.240 0.196 0.184 0.008 0.029 6 0.241 0.196 0.189 0.013 0.035 -0.027 7 0.240 0.196 0.189 0.016 0.039 -0.023 -0.016 8 0.240 0.195 0.191 0.017 0.049 -0.012 -0.003 -0.056 9 0.230 0.195 0.189 0.026 0.052 0.022 0.032 -0.013 -0.178 10 0.284 0.198 0.179 0.019 0.036 0.014 -0.026 -0.072 -0.248 0.304 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1014.57 993.74 986.39 983.34 985.31 987.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 989.10 991.07 992.66 990.38 979.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.243 0.204 0.193 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.41 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.243 0.263 0.307 0.175 0.156 0.133 0.098 0.081 0.065 0.0513 0.041 0.033 0.026 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.0055 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 527011 3 0.205 0.465 -0.039 0.019 2 527012 3 0.349 0.514 0.050 0.073 3 527021 3 0.089 -0.231 0.054 0.180 4 527022 3 0.066 0.000 0.015 0.191 5 527031 3 0.375 0.574 -0.016 0.089 6 527032 3 0.374 0.312 0.308 0.100 7 527041 3 0.340 0.289 0.313 0.056 8 527042 3 0.311 0.390 0.217 0.036 9 527051 3 0.243 0.390 0.049 0.145 10 527052 3 0.322 0.298 0.362 -0.007 11 527061 3 0.207 0.347 0.230 -0.101 12 527062 3 0.107 0.285 0.107 -0.077 13 527071 3 0.398 0.512 0.084 0.109 14 527072 3 0.486 0.563 0.053 0.151 15 527081 3 0.289 0.468 0.090 0.037 16 527082 3 0.323 0.479 0.086 0.073 17 527091 3 0.119 0.251 0.018 0.190 18 527092 3 0.284 0.415 0.240 -0.101 19 527101 3 0.435 0.549 0.068 0.110 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 527102 3 0.258 0.324 0.055 0.262 21 527111 3 0.587 0.734 -0.125 0.197 22 527112 3 0.484 0.537 0.140 0.077 23 527121 3 0.449 0.634 0.120 -0.104 24 527122 3 0.435 0.666 -0.053 -0.124 25 527131 3 0.451 0.628 0.086 -0.034 26 527132 3 0.609 0.698 0.226 -0.165 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.331 0.426 0.105 0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.144 0.213 0.120 0.115 MEDIAN 3 0.331 0.466 0.085 0.073 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.193 0.251 0.168 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.066 -0.231 -0.125 -0.165 LOWER HINGE 3 0.243 0.312 0.049 -0.034 UPPER HINGE 3 0.435 0.563 0.217 0.145 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.609 0.734 0.362 0.262 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 527011 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.228 0.695 4.159 0.253 0.000 2 527012 1871 1978 108 1.000 0.267 0.694 5.372 0.276 0.011 3 527021 1917 1978 62 1.000 0.228 0.039 2.633 0.249 0.010 4 527022 1911 1978 68 1.000 0.237 0.189 2.592 0.244 0.031 5 527031 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.297 0.703 3.720 0.299 0.021 6 527032 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.292 1.135 5.446 0.278 0.014 7 527041 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.253 0.461 3.246 0.280 0.013 8 527042 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.253 0.711 4.153 0.278 -0.002 9 527051 1870 1978 109 1.000 0.192 -0.236 3.656 0.204 0.017 10 527052 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.177 -0.077 4.491 0.202 -0.005 11 527061 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.194 0.057 3.231 0.222 0.002 12 527062 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.201 -0.271 3.518 0.228 -0.005 13 527071 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.223 0.877 6.053 0.224 -0.003 14 527072 1869 1978 110 1.000 0.201 1.176 6.140 0.205 0.020 15 527081 1880 1978 99 1.000 0.230 0.281 3.023 0.251 -0.012 16 527082 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.234 0.368 3.107 0.257 -0.009 17 527091 1867 1978 112 1.000 0.207 1.044 6.333 0.224 0.010 18 527092 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.211 1.046 5.709 0.222 0.005 19 527101 1863 1978 116 1.000 0.182 0.468 3.441 0.204 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 527102 1877 1978 102 1.000 0.204 0.456 2.448 0.214 0.014 21 527111 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.200 0.600 4.065 0.215 0.013 22 527112 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.248 0.884 5.671 0.258 0.006 23 527121 1898 1978 81 1.000 0.230 0.411 5.720 0.258 -0.136 24 527122 1901 1978 78 1.000 0.203 0.589 4.546 0.217 0.008 25 527131 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.205 0.425 3.334 0.227 -0.007 26 527132 1887 1978 92 1.000 0.171 0.014 3.545 0.183 -0.030 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 104 1.000 0.222 0.490 4.206 0.237 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.032 0.411 1.216 0.030 0.030 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 106 1.000 0.217 0.465 3.892 0.227 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.000 0.036 0.523 2.200 0.043 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 62 1.000 0.171 -0.271 2.448 0.183 -0.136 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.201 0.189 3.246 0.215 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 116 1.000 0.237 0.711 5.446 0.258 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 133 1.000 0.297 1.176 6.333 0.299 0.031 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.433 0.129 0.007 0.022 2.722 0.125 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.125 SERIES 527021 AND 527131 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 527081 AND 527082 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 120. 253. 325. RBAR 0.410 0.506 0.495 SDEV 0.177 0.153 0.133 SERR 0.016 0.010 0.007 EPS 0.941 0.963 0.962 NSS 22.9 25.4 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.995 0.147 -0.016 3.147 0.176 -0.234 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.166 0.072 0.064 51 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.47 1.00 1.05 1.53 4.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.232 0.029 0.054 0.014 0.054 0.005 -0.012 0.004 -0.247 0.206 PACF -0.232 -0.026 0.058 0.043 0.070 0.031 -0.010 -0.011 -0.272 0.092 95% C.L. 0.173 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.193 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.055 -0.233 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.002 0.009 0.058 0.063 0.029 -0.026 -0.067 -0.225 0.190 PACF -0.003 -0.002 0.009 0.058 0.064 0.030 -0.027 -0.073 -0.238 0.187 95% C.L. 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.184 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.004 -0.003 -0.002 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1846 1978 133 0.994 0.168 0.063 3.093 0.139 0.427 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.424 0.405 0.396 0.301 0.260 0.184 0.130 0.083 -0.034 0.171 PACF 0.424 0.274 0.204 0.041 0.015 -0.051 -0.050 -0.047 -0.140 0.254 95% C.L. 0.173 0.202 0.225 0.245 0.256 0.264 0.268 0.270 0.271 0.271 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.278 0.248 0.217 0.207 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES