RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED014L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED014L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 544 1 Vemdalskalet WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 544 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 800 6230-1359 1782 1978 - 544 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 544071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1819 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 544111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 544121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1831 1831 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 0.146 0.059 1.552 8.278 0.344 0.392 2 544021 1813 1978 166 0.193 0.100 1.136 4.594 0.464 0.328 3 544022 1782 1978 197 0.177 0.093 0.613 2.993 0.440 0.505 4 544031 1832 1978 147 0.150 0.073 0.752 4.088 0.545 0.098 5 544032 1832 1978 147 0.113 0.063 1.774 8.355 0.508 0.257 6 544041 1845 1978 134 0.139 0.057 0.679 3.499 0.431 0.099 7 544042 1824 1978 155 0.146 0.070 1.050 4.155 0.455 0.370 8 544051 1816 1978 163 0.201 0.114 1.362 5.037 0.446 0.438 9 544052 1882 1978 97 0.159 0.066 0.447 2.825 0.414 0.337 10 544061 1819 1978 160 0.137 0.068 1.942 8.425 0.357 0.469 11 544062 1822 1978 157 0.273 0.201 1.521 4.831 0.413 0.684 12 544071 1801 1978 178 0.189 0.099 0.835 2.949 0.486 0.373 13 544072 1796 1978 183 0.209 0.102 0.662 3.307 0.524 0.202 14 544081 1802 1978 177 0.117 0.063 1.081 4.133 0.438 0.482 15 544082 1809 1978 170 0.097 0.063 2.039 9.555 0.509 0.381 16 544091 1872 1978 107 0.176 0.083 0.798 3.285 0.367 0.530 17 544092 1791 1978 188 0.195 0.099 1.224 5.214 0.338 0.613 18 544101 1855 1978 124 0.342 0.128 0.649 3.985 0.375 0.272 19 544102 1827 1978 152 0.285 0.110 1.267 5.139 0.357 0.294 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 0.179 0.118 1.112 3.701 0.369 0.734 21 544112 1794 1978 185 0.137 0.082 1.129 3.491 0.326 0.740 22 544121 1786 1978 193 0.148 0.082 1.365 5.783 0.477 0.275 23 544122 1802 1978 177 0.175 0.104 1.571 6.336 0.450 0.611 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1782 TO 1978 197 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 0.178 0.091 1.155 4.955 0.428 0.412 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.058 0.032 0.441 1.970 0.064 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 0.175 0.083 1.129 4.155 0.438 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.052 0.036 0.668 2.003 0.103 0.233 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.097 0.057 0.447 2.825 0.326 0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 0.142 0.067 0.775 3.495 0.368 0.285 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 0.194 0.103 1.443 5.499 0.470 0.517 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 0.342 0.201 2.039 9.555 0.545 0.740 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.488 0.128 0.008 -0.057 2.458 0.183 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.183 SERIES 544062 AND 544082 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 544111 AND 544112 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.494 0.373 0.492 0.564 0.614 SDEV 0.158 0.204 0.185 0.154 0.140 SERR 0.021 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.947 0.926 0.956 0.967 0.973 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.174 0.067 0.479 2.940 0.344 0.459 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.529 0.291 0.021 109 88 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.81 1.49 1.01 1.23 2.73 10.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 163. 31. 97. 150. 180. 197. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.457 0.461 0.429 0.378 0.367 0.271 0.383 0.325 0.266 0.317 PACF 0.457 0.319 0.197 0.093 0.085 -0.047 0.180 0.060 -0.036 0.074 95% C.L. 0.142 0.170 0.193 0.212 0.225 0.237 0.243 0.255 0.263 0.269 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.358 0.196 0.238 0.206 0.121 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 544011 1 0.30835664 0.23463143 0.00000000 0.13857825 2 544021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083385 0.26281929 3 544022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077993 0.25442091 4 544031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044813 0.18316187 5 544032 1 0.08281351 0.02275151 0.00000000 0.08971719 6 544041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059193 0.17861183 7 544042 1 0.19960919 0.06547111 0.00000000 0.12735525 8 544051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061959 0.25166553 9 544052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049666 0.18320233 10 544061 1 0.20272671 0.09359615 0.00000000 0.12414896 11 544062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069871 0.32819206 12 544071 1 0.24595341 0.02228682 0.00000000 0.13187879 13 544072 1 0.16092153 0.02329426 0.00000000 0.17217831 14 544081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076228 0.18462250 15 544082 1 0.15796317 0.02280803 0.00000000 0.05779539 16 544091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00116587 0.23847117 17 544092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031022 0.22452839 18 544101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010074 0.33555862 19 544102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000959 0.28406936 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 544111 1 0.29214093 0.02713812 0.00000000 0.12177255 21 544112 1 0.25541601 0.02228221 0.00000000 0.07637108 22 544121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066862 0.21402550 23 544122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033760 0.14503852 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.348 0.480 2.766 0.342 0.246 2 544021 1813 1978 166 1.002 0.475 1.358 6.622 0.461 0.262 3 544022 1782 1978 197 0.998 0.476 0.897 4.039 0.438 0.398 4 544031 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.468 0.811 5.084 0.542 0.089 5 544032 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.535 2.586 15.378 0.505 0.198 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.364 0.304 3.122 0.427 -0.029 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.000 0.415 1.011 5.268 0.453 0.091 8 544051 1816 1978 163 0.995 0.561 1.768 7.354 0.444 0.427 9 544052 1882 1978 97 0.999 0.403 0.515 3.266 0.410 0.346 10 544061 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.434 1.667 8.512 0.355 0.413 11 544062 1822 1978 157 0.998 0.773 1.905 6.185 0.411 0.709 12 544071 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.449 0.974 4.128 0.486 0.109 13 544072 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.464 0.698 3.170 0.522 0.093 14 544081 1802 1978 177 1.005 0.411 0.613 3.793 0.436 0.199 15 544082 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.432 0.508 3.327 0.506 0.017 16 544091 1872 1978 107 0.999 0.423 0.915 4.581 0.364 0.486 17 544092 1791 1978 188 0.999 0.510 1.341 5.241 0.336 0.621 18 544101 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.376 0.673 4.101 0.372 0.265 19 544102 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.385 1.265 5.127 0.355 0.292 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.620 2.291 10.634 0.363 0.723 21 544112 1794 1978 185 1.001 0.461 3.753 29.298 0.325 0.460 22 544121 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.487 1.327 6.141 0.473 0.115 23 544122 1802 1978 177 1.000 0.561 1.225 5.201 0.448 0.562 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.000 0.471 1.256 6.623 0.425 0.308 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.002 0.094 0.804 5.699 0.064 0.217 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 1.000 0.461 1.011 5.127 0.436 0.265 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.001 0.085 0.827 2.488 0.104 0.332 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.995 0.348 0.304 2.766 0.325 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.413 0.685 3.916 0.363 0.112 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.499 1.512 6.404 0.467 0.443 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.005 0.773 3.753 29.298 0.542 0.723 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 544011 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 544021 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 544022 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 544031 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 544032 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 544041 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 544042 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 544051 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 544052 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 544061 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 544062 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 544071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 544072 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 544081 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 544082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 544091 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 544092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 544101 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 544102 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 544111 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 544112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 544121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 544122 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 0.997 0.332 0.504 3.080 0.343 0.153 2 544021 1813 1978 166 0.993 0.449 1.464 7.600 0.461 0.190 3 544022 1782 1978 197 0.993 0.443 0.679 3.639 0.438 0.334 4 544031 1832 1978 147 0.996 0.456 0.821 5.416 0.542 0.043 5 544032 1832 1978 147 0.993 0.483 2.013 11.939 0.505 0.088 6 544041 1845 1978 134 0.998 0.357 0.238 3.032 0.427 -0.066 7 544042 1824 1978 155 0.997 0.386 0.602 4.085 0.453 0.010 8 544051 1816 1978 163 0.994 0.466 2.030 10.711 0.443 0.285 9 544052 1882 1978 97 0.996 0.352 0.007 2.372 0.409 0.089 10 544061 1819 1978 160 0.996 0.393 1.487 7.932 0.356 0.333 11 544062 1822 1978 157 0.978 0.593 1.274 4.033 0.412 0.574 12 544071 1801 1978 178 0.996 0.432 0.931 4.045 0.486 0.024 13 544072 1796 1978 183 0.998 0.458 0.716 3.294 0.521 0.046 14 544081 1802 1978 177 0.999 0.401 0.553 3.658 0.436 0.148 15 544082 1809 1978 170 0.999 0.432 0.535 3.448 0.506 0.007 16 544091 1872 1978 107 0.991 0.380 0.489 3.522 0.363 0.384 17 544092 1791 1978 188 0.993 0.449 0.996 4.253 0.336 0.577 18 544101 1855 1978 124 0.996 0.364 0.776 4.904 0.372 0.185 19 544102 1827 1978 152 0.995 0.348 1.008 4.316 0.355 0.153 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 0.979 0.505 1.629 7.624 0.363 0.620 21 544112 1794 1978 185 0.994 0.412 3.476 27.027 0.325 0.372 22 544121 1786 1978 193 0.992 0.466 1.598 8.716 0.473 0.000 23 544122 1802 1978 177 0.985 0.486 0.763 3.830 0.448 0.426 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 0.993 0.428 1.069 6.195 0.425 0.216 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.006 0.061 0.750 5.223 0.064 0.203 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 0.995 0.432 0.821 4.085 0.436 0.153 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.004 0.078 0.898 4.032 0.104 0.308 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.978 0.332 0.007 2.372 0.325 -0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 0.993 0.383 0.578 3.580 0.363 0.044 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 0.997 0.462 1.475 7.612 0.467 0.353 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 0.999 0.593 3.476 27.027 0.542 0.620 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.504 0.095 0.006 -0.174 2.852 0.213 0.723 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.213 SERIES 544022 AND 544062 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.723 SERIES 544041 AND 544042 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.485 0.401 0.511 0.592 0.591 SDEV 0.130 0.166 0.163 0.136 0.138 SERR 0.017 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.945 0.934 0.959 0.971 0.971 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.975 0.285 0.553 4.924 0.327 0.138 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.568 0.228 0.044 71 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.54 1.00 1.10 1.64 9.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.137 0.228 0.167 0.141 0.076 -0.033 0.168 0.081 -0.016 0.060 PACF 0.137 0.213 0.121 0.070 -0.001 -0.109 0.150 0.072 -0.083 0.017 95% C.L. 0.142 0.145 0.152 0.156 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.163 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.083 0.082 0.201 0.123 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.169 0.266 0.198 0.195 0.095 -0.018 0.205 0.088 0.003 0.073 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.169 2 0.128 0.244 3 0.095 0.227 0.135 4 0.081 0.204 0.125 0.103 5 0.082 0.205 0.128 0.105 -0.013 6 0.080 0.219 0.145 0.132 -0.002 -0.132 7 0.104 0.219 0.121 0.106 -0.041 -0.146 0.176 8 0.092 0.229 0.124 0.099 -0.049 -0.160 0.170 0.066 9 0.098 0.244 0.110 0.095 -0.040 -0.149 0.190 0.074 -0.088 10 0.100 0.242 0.105 0.098 -0.039 -0.152 0.187 0.068 -0.091 0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1765.34 1761.65 1751.53 1749.91 1749.79 1751.76 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1750.32 1746.09 1747.23 1747.69 1749.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.081 0.204 0.125 0.103 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.27 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.70 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.081 0.210 0.158 0.169 0.081 0.082 0.061 0.049 0.035 0.0290 0.022 0.017 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.0022 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 544011 4 0.055 0.122 0.147 0.033 0.038 2 544021 4 0.096 0.122 0.200 0.084 0.058 3 544022 4 0.141 0.289 0.051 0.134 0.008 4 544031 4 0.069 -0.005 0.145 0.124 0.149 5 544032 4 0.013 0.085 0.025 0.043 -0.002 6 544041 4 0.023 -0.073 -0.024 0.066 0.119 7 544042 4 0.108 -0.039 0.208 0.115 0.164 8 544051 4 0.109 0.234 0.154 0.039 -0.002 9 544052 4 0.093 0.119 0.180 -0.237 0.022 10 544061 4 0.148 0.273 0.192 -0.005 -0.004 11 544062 4 0.450 0.321 0.272 0.156 0.035 12 544071 4 0.008 0.021 0.032 0.029 0.065 13 544072 4 0.021 0.043 0.070 0.089 -0.070 14 544081 4 0.052 0.129 0.097 -0.007 0.131 15 544082 4 0.020 0.010 0.114 -0.026 0.030 16 544091 4 0.226 0.296 0.190 0.071 -0.032 17 544092 4 0.385 0.425 0.251 -0.014 0.038 18 544101 4 0.068 0.137 0.114 0.096 0.071 19 544102 4 0.076 0.112 0.193 0.113 -0.070 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 544111 4 0.444 0.409 0.237 0.120 -0.008 21 544112 4 0.151 0.336 0.073 0.036 0.008 22 544121 4 0.042 -0.024 0.151 0.112 0.057 23 544122 4 0.242 0.298 0.197 0.056 0.086 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.132 0.158 0.142 0.053 0.039 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.132 0.149 0.078 0.081 0.062 MEDIAN 4 0.093 0.122 0.151 0.066 0.035 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.103 0.261 0.110 0.082 0.070 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.008 -0.073 -0.024 -0.237 -0.070 LOWER HINGE 4 0.047 0.032 0.085 0.031 -0.002 UPPER HINGE 4 0.150 0.292 0.195 0.112 0.068 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.450 0.425 0.272 0.156 0.164 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.324 0.501 3.051 0.359 0.003 2 544021 1813 1978 166 1.000 0.427 1.339 7.615 0.476 0.001 3 544022 1782 1978 197 1.000 0.411 0.552 3.497 0.480 0.000 4 544031 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.440 0.739 5.139 0.532 -0.001 5 544032 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.481 2.065 12.574 0.514 0.000 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.353 0.251 2.973 0.411 0.003 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.000 0.367 0.535 4.221 0.435 -0.016 8 544051 1816 1978 163 1.000 0.440 1.815 10.467 0.483 0.001 9 544052 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.335 0.005 2.856 0.401 -0.005 10 544061 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.364 0.945 5.510 0.405 0.000 11 544062 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.442 0.880 3.786 0.468 0.014 12 544071 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.431 0.932 4.080 0.490 0.002 13 544072 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.453 0.660 3.288 0.535 -0.003 14 544081 1802 1978 177 1.000 0.390 0.450 3.230 0.457 -0.004 15 544082 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.428 0.585 3.661 0.502 0.002 16 544091 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.342 0.353 3.590 0.395 -0.008 17 544092 1791 1978 188 1.000 0.354 0.924 4.986 0.386 -0.004 18 544101 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.351 1.050 5.957 0.379 -0.001 19 544102 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.334 0.770 3.684 0.374 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.377 1.371 8.222 0.399 0.000 21 544112 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.380 2.871 21.223 0.387 -0.001 22 544121 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.456 1.705 9.568 0.466 -0.002 23 544122 1802 1978 177 1.000 0.424 0.671 4.357 0.495 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.000 0.396 0.955 5.980 0.445 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.047 0.657 4.250 0.055 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 1.000 0.390 0.770 4.221 0.457 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.082 0.651 3.243 0.089 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.324 0.005 2.856 0.359 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.353 0.543 3.543 0.397 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.435 1.195 6.786 0.486 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.000 0.481 2.871 21.223 0.535 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.504 0.096 0.006 -0.278 2.940 0.248 0.733 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.248 SERIES 544062 AND 544101 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.733 SERIES 544071 AND 544072 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.522 0.465 0.567 0.572 0.537 SDEV 0.115 0.136 0.125 0.133 0.141 SERR 0.015 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.952 0.948 0.967 0.969 0.964 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.985 0.266 0.320 3.822 0.334 -0.101 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.521 0.203 0.049 67 130 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.58 1.00 1.06 1.65 8.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.101 0.022 0.030 0.032 -0.003 -0.136 0.152 0.034 -0.082 0.034 PACF -0.101 0.011 0.034 0.038 0.003 -0.140 0.126 0.067 -0.073 0.018 95% C.L. 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.147 0.150 0.150 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.005 0.000 -0.005 -0.012 -0.125 0.139 0.037 -0.073 0.040 PACF 0.000 0.005 0.000 -0.005 -0.012 -0.125 0.141 0.038 -0.078 0.041 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.147 0.148 0.148 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.985 0.280 0.505 4.611 0.315 0.166 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.165 0.256 0.194 0.182 0.104 -0.007 0.181 0.079 -0.017 0.047 PACF 0.165 0.235 0.133 0.095 0.003 -0.113 0.144 0.051 -0.099 0.007 95% C.L. 0.142 0.146 0.155 0.160 0.164 0.166 0.166 0.169 0.170 0.170 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.107 0.094 0.219 0.136 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES