RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED014P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED014P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 544 1 Vemdalskalet LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 544 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 800 6230-1359 1782 1978 - 544 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 544071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1819 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 544111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 544121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1831 1831 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 1.382 0.448 1.229 6.576 0.316 0.163 2 544021 1813 1978 166 1.631 0.627 0.789 4.757 0.419 0.136 3 544022 1782 1978 197 1.962 0.961 1.981 11.025 0.384 0.586 4 544031 1832 1978 147 0.989 0.425 0.362 3.644 0.513 0.111 5 544032 1832 1978 147 0.975 0.724 7.543 75.178 0.490 0.068 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.016 0.348 0.228 3.422 0.406 0.008 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.124 0.377 0.288 3.279 0.398 0.000 8 544051 1816 1978 163 1.488 0.634 1.064 3.933 0.414 0.180 9 544052 1882 1978 97 1.189 0.412 0.397 3.401 0.385 0.082 10 544061 1819 1978 160 1.374 0.496 0.888 4.003 0.349 0.190 11 544062 1822 1978 157 2.166 0.891 1.147 4.176 0.344 0.470 12 544071 1801 1978 178 1.696 0.666 0.700 3.732 0.410 0.272 13 544072 1796 1978 183 1.736 0.727 0.568 3.268 0.450 0.194 14 544081 1802 1978 177 1.232 0.628 2.024 10.250 0.409 0.428 15 544082 1809 1978 170 1.344 0.824 1.851 8.669 0.451 0.508 16 544091 1872 1978 107 1.507 0.465 0.174 3.226 0.325 0.245 17 544092 1791 1978 188 1.552 0.580 1.097 5.329 0.320 0.446 18 544101 1855 1978 124 1.564 0.487 0.138 3.047 0.305 0.215 19 544102 1827 1978 152 1.654 0.530 0.576 4.044 0.309 0.282 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 1.322 0.453 0.620 3.642 0.338 0.252 21 544112 1794 1978 185 1.469 0.470 1.188 6.465 0.286 0.312 22 544121 1786 1978 193 1.086 0.470 0.961 4.741 0.443 0.144 23 544122 1802 1978 177 1.527 0.822 0.868 3.214 0.427 0.620 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1782 TO 1978 197 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.434 0.586 1.160 7.957 0.387 0.257 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.304 0.172 1.493 14.827 0.062 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 1.469 0.530 0.868 4.003 0.398 0.215 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.387 0.236 0.685 2.486 0.092 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.975 0.348 0.138 3.047 0.286 0.000 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.211 0.459 0.483 3.411 0.332 0.140 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 1.597 0.695 1.168 5.897 0.423 0.370 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 2.166 0.961 7.543 75.178 0.513 0.620 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.383 0.147 0.009 0.039 2.749 0.034 0.807 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 544032 AND 544052 97 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.807 SERIES 544071 AND 544072 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.512 0.375 0.518 0.485 0.424 SDEV 0.153 0.199 0.179 0.192 0.196 SERR 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.950 0.927 0.960 0.956 0.944 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 1.456 0.438 0.602 3.381 0.284 0.379 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.453 0.229 0.158 87 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 0.92 1.00 1.15 2.07 57.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 163. 31. 97. 150. 180. 197. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.377 0.397 0.315 0.284 0.288 0.225 0.322 0.244 0.204 0.279 PACF 0.377 0.297 0.125 0.078 0.100 0.017 0.164 0.032 -0.033 0.119 95% C.L. 0.142 0.162 0.180 0.191 0.199 0.208 0.213 0.222 0.228 0.231 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.248 0.217 0.272 0.145 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 544011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00101863 1.30096245 2 544021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00253219 1.41946554 3 544022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00268161 1.69655085 4 544031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00329077 0.74525857 5 544032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402462 0.67714375 6 544041 1 1.08110082 0.19096301 0.00000000 0.97747815 7 544042 1 0.46853551 0.00313565 0.00000000 0.75320303 8 544051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122547 1.58852530 9 544052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00426520 1.39806700 10 544061 1 0.47859350 0.04519337 0.00000000 1.30909574 11 544062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061170 2.21386576 12 544071 1 2.34433198 0.13984953 0.00000000 1.61455119 13 544072 1 1.76702082 0.08267080 0.00000000 1.62441206 14 544081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00632412 0.66946971 15 544082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01088897 0.41346398 16 544091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007700 1.50303829 17 544092 1 1.04113483 0.09122055 0.00000000 1.49382663 18 544101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111456 1.49396932 19 544102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00225871 1.48161638 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 544111 1 0.76961213 0.07086014 0.00000000 1.26580667 21 544112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105006 1.37153411 22 544121 1 0.69169277 0.04530360 0.00000000 1.00821412 23 544122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00976368 0.65758604 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.324 1.403 8.045 0.314 0.154 2 544021 1813 1978 166 1.000 0.373 0.511 3.729 0.417 0.104 3 544022 1782 1978 197 1.001 0.479 1.603 8.163 0.382 0.586 4 544031 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.410 0.374 4.198 0.509 -0.018 5 544032 1832 1978 147 1.001 0.684 6.988 67.839 0.487 0.016 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.327 0.232 3.892 0.402 -0.121 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.000 0.331 0.232 3.282 0.396 -0.029 8 544051 1816 1978 163 1.000 0.425 1.088 4.020 0.412 0.170 9 544052 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.323 0.078 2.940 0.381 0.014 10 544061 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.353 0.875 4.070 0.347 0.148 11 544062 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.412 1.162 4.224 0.342 0.468 12 544071 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.363 0.583 3.889 0.406 0.103 13 544072 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.397 0.623 3.880 0.448 0.040 14 544081 1802 1978 177 1.008 0.405 1.001 5.578 0.407 0.212 15 544082 1809 1978 170 1.029 0.481 1.179 5.717 0.448 0.217 16 544091 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.309 0.178 3.228 0.322 0.243 17 544092 1791 1978 188 1.000 0.360 1.109 5.819 0.317 0.394 18 544101 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.313 0.248 3.268 0.302 0.203 19 544102 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.325 0.992 5.472 0.307 0.261 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.327 0.528 3.574 0.336 0.208 21 544112 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.315 1.010 5.418 0.284 0.303 22 544121 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.420 1.126 5.967 0.438 0.034 23 544122 1802 1978 177 1.011 0.447 0.912 5.142 0.424 0.419 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.002 0.387 1.045 7.450 0.384 0.180 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.007 0.084 1.363 13.240 0.062 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 1.000 0.363 0.912 4.198 0.396 0.170 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.090 0.675 1.843 0.092 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.309 0.078 2.940 0.284 -0.121 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.326 0.443 3.804 0.329 0.037 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.416 1.117 5.647 0.421 0.252 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.029 0.684 6.988 67.839 0.509 0.586 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 544011 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 544021 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 544022 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 544031 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 544032 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 544041 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 544042 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 544051 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 544052 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 544061 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 544062 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 544071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 544072 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 544081 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 544082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 544091 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 544092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 544101 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 544102 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 544111 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 544112 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 544121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 544122 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 0.998 0.305 0.959 5.414 0.314 0.084 2 544021 1813 1978 166 0.997 0.348 0.449 3.820 0.417 -0.029 3 544022 1782 1978 197 0.993 0.381 1.146 7.534 0.382 0.300 4 544031 1832 1978 147 0.998 0.398 0.185 3.696 0.510 -0.074 5 544032 1832 1978 147 0.995 0.623 6.410 60.564 0.487 -0.030 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.325 0.189 3.591 0.402 -0.160 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.000 0.328 0.207 3.256 0.396 -0.044 8 544051 1816 1978 163 0.998 0.408 1.433 6.037 0.412 0.114 9 544052 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.320 0.092 3.085 0.380 -0.007 10 544061 1819 1978 160 0.998 0.325 0.806 4.248 0.346 -0.033 11 544062 1822 1978 157 0.995 0.372 0.897 3.636 0.342 0.366 12 544071 1801 1978 178 0.998 0.356 0.630 4.260 0.406 0.065 13 544072 1796 1978 183 0.999 0.389 0.482 3.423 0.448 0.015 14 544081 1802 1978 177 0.999 0.382 0.952 5.164 0.407 0.104 15 544082 1809 1978 170 0.996 0.406 0.748 4.802 0.448 0.000 16 544091 1872 1978 107 0.998 0.293 0.038 3.319 0.322 0.152 17 544092 1791 1978 188 0.997 0.337 0.973 5.208 0.317 0.322 18 544101 1855 1978 124 0.997 0.293 0.717 5.229 0.302 -0.021 19 544102 1827 1978 152 0.997 0.310 1.027 5.977 0.307 0.184 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 0.997 0.309 0.375 3.443 0.336 0.112 21 544112 1794 1978 185 0.999 0.289 0.755 4.798 0.284 0.193 22 544121 1786 1978 193 0.999 0.421 1.227 6.493 0.438 0.012 23 544122 1802 1978 177 0.996 0.405 0.447 3.425 0.425 0.286 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 0.997 0.362 0.919 6.975 0.384 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.002 0.071 1.257 11.743 0.062 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 0.998 0.348 0.748 4.260 0.396 0.065 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.002 0.078 0.555 1.805 0.091 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.993 0.289 0.038 3.085 0.284 -0.160 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 0.997 0.315 0.411 3.517 0.329 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 0.999 0.393 0.966 5.321 0.421 0.168 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.000 0.623 6.410 60.564 0.510 0.366 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.436 0.139 0.009 -0.342 2.962 0.064 0.790 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.064 SERIES 544062 AND 544101 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.790 SERIES 544071 AND 544072 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.525 0.398 0.538 0.487 0.449 SDEV 0.152 0.185 0.162 0.191 0.189 SERR 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.953 0.933 0.963 0.956 0.949 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.984 0.240 0.158 3.322 0.280 -0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.375 0.144 0.090 77 120 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.52 1.00 1.07 1.59 11.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.119 0.020 -0.018 -0.029 -0.149 0.062 0.014 -0.044 0.078 PACF -0.004 0.119 0.021 -0.032 -0.035 -0.146 0.071 0.053 -0.057 0.062 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.046 0.094 -0.002 -0.016 -0.077 -0.203 0.065 0.045 -0.034 0.086 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.046 2 -0.042 0.092 3 -0.043 0.093 0.006 4 -0.042 0.095 0.005 -0.025 5 -0.044 0.095 0.012 -0.029 -0.080 6 -0.061 0.089 0.015 -0.009 -0.089 -0.209 7 -0.048 0.095 0.015 -0.009 -0.095 -0.206 0.062 8 -0.054 0.115 0.025 -0.009 -0.096 -0.215 0.067 0.097 9 -0.050 0.118 0.016 -0.013 -0.097 -0.214 0.071 0.094 -0.041 10 -0.048 0.112 0.012 0.000 -0.091 -0.213 0.070 0.088 -0.038 0.058 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1666.88 1668.46 1668.77 1670.76 1672.64 1673.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1666.55 1667.79 1667.94 1669.61 1670.94 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.061 0.089 0.015 -0.009 -0.089 -0.209 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.07 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.46 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.061 0.093 0.004 -0.001 -0.087 -0.199 0.009 -0.040 0.000 0.0063 0.035 0.040 0.002 0.012 -0.001 -0.004 -0.011 -0.008 -0.002 -.0032 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 544011 6 0.041 0.092 0.096 -0.083 0.047 -0.116 -0.006 2 544021 6 0.073 -0.039 0.146 0.087 0.012 -0.030 -0.207 3 544022 6 0.144 0.243 0.064 0.202 0.023 0.014 -0.107 4 544031 6 0.015 -0.077 -0.014 -0.006 -0.050 -0.040 -0.012 5 544032 6 0.017 -0.027 -0.024 -0.002 -0.050 0.024 -0.101 6 544041 6 0.139 -0.204 -0.119 0.016 -0.030 -0.155 -0.258 7 544042 6 0.055 -0.037 0.136 -0.001 0.109 0.002 -0.169 8 544051 6 0.056 0.101 0.078 -0.117 -0.042 -0.050 -0.080 9 544052 6 0.102 -0.037 -0.021 -0.239 -0.020 -0.156 -0.178 10 544061 6 0.049 -0.021 0.039 -0.146 -0.060 0.061 -0.145 11 544062 6 0.238 0.254 0.266 -0.021 0.123 0.061 -0.103 12 544071 6 0.036 0.056 0.078 -0.018 0.029 -0.032 -0.153 13 544072 6 0.047 0.007 0.163 -0.040 -0.058 -0.090 -0.048 14 544081 6 0.056 0.078 -0.030 -0.046 -0.032 -0.126 -0.139 15 544082 6 0.012 -0.003 0.054 -0.015 -0.056 -0.017 -0.072 16 544091 6 0.096 0.110 0.195 0.069 -0.009 -0.170 -0.019 17 544092 6 0.170 0.242 0.242 0.056 -0.078 0.065 -0.040 18 544101 6 0.035 -0.032 0.040 0.138 0.005 -0.069 -0.113 19 544102 6 0.099 0.165 0.173 0.080 -0.170 0.071 0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 544111 6 0.062 0.095 0.133 0.034 -0.040 0.014 -0.017 21 544112 6 0.051 0.187 0.053 -0.014 -0.021 0.105 -0.022 22 544121 6 0.058 0.001 0.131 0.093 0.052 0.038 -0.147 23 544122 6 0.154 0.222 0.138 0.077 0.089 -0.074 -0.143 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.078 0.060 0.088 0.004 -0.010 -0.029 -0.099 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.057 0.119 0.093 0.096 0.066 0.080 0.071 MEDIAN 6 0.056 0.056 0.078 -0.002 -0.021 -0.030 -0.103 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.057 0.167 0.102 0.104 0.076 0.113 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.012 -0.204 -0.119 -0.239 -0.170 -0.170 -0.258 LOWER HINGE 6 0.044 -0.029 0.039 -0.031 -0.050 -0.082 -0.146 UPPER HINGE 6 0.100 0.138 0.142 0.073 0.026 0.031 -0.031 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.238 0.254 0.266 0.202 0.123 0.105 0.004 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 544011 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.298 0.880 5.400 0.324 0.000 2 544021 1813 1978 166 1.000 0.336 0.467 3.814 0.386 0.014 3 544022 1782 1978 197 1.000 0.353 0.843 6.132 0.404 0.004 4 544031 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.396 0.140 3.576 0.492 -0.001 5 544032 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.618 6.339 59.678 0.479 -0.004 6 544041 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.305 0.115 3.936 0.357 -0.041 7 544042 1824 1978 155 1.000 0.319 0.198 3.312 0.374 -0.002 8 544051 1816 1978 163 1.000 0.399 1.305 5.556 0.432 0.006 9 544052 1882 1978 97 1.000 0.304 0.211 3.971 0.354 0.014 10 544061 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.317 0.717 4.093 0.340 -0.005 11 544062 1822 1978 157 1.000 0.327 0.828 3.360 0.358 0.012 12 544071 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.349 0.580 4.073 0.407 0.002 13 544072 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.380 0.421 3.542 0.439 0.003 14 544081 1802 1978 177 1.000 0.372 0.830 4.652 0.413 -0.008 15 544082 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.403 0.731 4.926 0.442 -0.001 16 544091 1872 1978 107 1.000 0.279 0.041 3.115 0.330 0.002 17 544092 1791 1978 188 1.000 0.307 0.683 3.993 0.345 -0.002 18 544101 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.288 0.581 4.718 0.301 0.004 19 544102 1827 1978 152 1.000 0.294 0.633 4.622 0.341 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 544111 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.304 0.313 3.448 0.349 0.003 21 544112 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.282 0.892 5.600 0.299 0.000 22 544121 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.410 1.176 6.003 0.425 0.013 23 544122 1802 1978 177 1.000 0.376 0.200 3.013 0.448 0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.000 0.349 0.832 6.719 0.384 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.072 1.248 11.582 0.055 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 163 1.000 0.327 0.633 4.073 0.374 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 31 0.000 0.074 0.574 1.604 0.085 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.279 0.041 3.013 0.299 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 149 1.000 0.304 0.262 3.559 0.343 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.378 0.837 5.163 0.428 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.000 0.618 6.339 59.678 0.492 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.428 0.135 0.008 -0.477 3.142 0.042 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.042 SERIES 544032 AND 544092 147 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 544071 AND 544072 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 55. 171. 210. 253. 253. RBAR 0.503 0.404 0.541 0.465 0.439 SDEV 0.149 0.174 0.145 0.197 0.192 SERR 0.020 0.013 0.010 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.948 0.935 0.964 0.952 0.947 NSS 18.2 21.1 22.5 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.989 0.227 0.179 3.331 0.272 -0.087 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.293 0.113 0.114 64 133 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.75 1.00 1.08 1.83 13.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.087 0.022 0.005 -0.035 -0.035 -0.088 0.076 0.012 -0.066 0.083 PACF -0.087 0.014 0.009 -0.034 -0.041 -0.094 0.063 0.028 -0.069 0.064 95% C.L. 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.005 -0.003 0.004 0.000 0.005 0.056 0.006 -0.075 0.066 PACF 0.006 0.005 -0.003 0.004 0.000 0.005 0.056 0.005 -0.076 0.067 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.003 0.006 0.005 -0.003 0.004 0.000 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1978 197 0.989 0.231 0.176 3.423 0.276 -0.057 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.056 0.088 0.003 -0.019 -0.069 -0.190 0.076 -0.014 -0.054 0.079 PACF -0.056 0.085 0.013 -0.025 -0.074 -0.197 0.069 0.032 -0.068 0.061 95% C.L. 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES