RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED016E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED016E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 547 1 FjŠll,Glaskogen Naturres WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 547 2 Sweeden Scots pine, Scotch pine 250 5928-1224 1775 1978 - 547 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 547041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 547042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 547072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1786 1790 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 547112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1813 1813 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 547011 1833 1978 146 0.773 0.315 0.649 2.751 0.283 0.608 2 547012 1832 1978 147 0.712 0.226 0.511 3.147 0.223 0.642 3 547021 1856 1978 123 0.660 0.287 1.202 3.893 0.202 0.864 4 547022 1838 1978 141 0.763 0.389 1.649 5.827 0.236 0.830 5 547031 1861 1978 118 0.672 0.229 0.505 2.804 0.212 0.685 6 547032 1807 1978 172 0.504 0.210 0.357 3.102 0.313 0.647 7 547041 1784 1978 195 0.450 0.240 1.447 4.810 0.260 0.765 8 547042 1794 1978 185 0.502 0.240 1.296 5.442 0.291 0.680 9 547051 1883 1978 96 1.350 0.589 1.029 4.385 0.220 0.803 10 547052 1888 1978 91 1.406 0.459 0.653 3.568 0.207 0.694 11 547061 1837 1978 142 0.721 0.443 1.992 7.681 0.278 0.825 12 547062 1854 1978 125 0.720 0.401 2.134 8.321 0.278 0.755 13 547071 1811 1978 168 0.442 0.286 2.769 11.968 0.263 0.869 14 547072 1775 1978 204 0.461 0.278 2.119 8.607 0.302 0.767 15 547081 1875 1978 104 0.763 0.403 2.677 11.433 0.244 0.808 16 547082 1873 1978 106 0.817 0.459 1.675 6.781 0.246 0.794 17 547091 1845 1978 134 0.678 0.249 0.237 3.202 0.247 0.689 18 547092 1835 1978 144 0.779 0.289 0.506 3.731 0.237 0.631 19 547101 1784 1978 195 0.467 0.259 1.767 6.545 0.278 0.810 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 547102 1805 1978 174 0.443 0.225 1.521 5.637 0.267 0.791 21 547111 1786 1978 193 0.482 0.395 3.182 15.121 0.253 0.919 22 547112 1784 1978 195 0.441 0.334 2.714 10.754 0.273 0.896 23 547121 1821 1978 158 0.340 0.181 1.109 4.118 0.274 0.784 24 547122 1819 1978 160 0.444 0.231 2.447 16.667 0.265 0.463 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1775 TO 1978 204 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 150 0.658 0.317 1.506 6.679 0.256 0.751 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.264 0.103 0.864 3.947 0.030 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 0.666 0.287 1.484 5.540 0.262 0.775 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 54 0.307 0.163 1.475 4.814 0.041 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.340 0.181 0.237 2.751 0.202 0.463 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 0.456 0.235 0.651 3.650 0.237 0.682 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.763 0.398 2.126 8.464 0.278 0.817 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.406 0.589 3.182 16.667 0.313 0.919 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.428 0.186 0.011 -0.060 2.819 -0.089 0.873 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.089 SERIES 547052 AND 547121 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.873 SERIES 547101 AND 547102 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 55. 153. 231. 276. RBAR 0.422 0.272 0.215 0.398 0.439 SDEV 0.220 0.195 0.238 0.211 0.219 SERR 0.048 0.026 0.019 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.901 0.869 0.857 0.940 0.949 NSS 12.5 17.8 21.9 23.8 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1775 1978 204 0.534 0.225 1.288 5.145 0.206 0.822 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.728 0.387 0.016 84 120 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.60 1.51 1.01 1.16 2.67 11.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.08 0.00 0.83 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 146. 56. 91. 124. 180. 204. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.818 0.684 0.606 0.556 0.500 0.460 0.409 0.413 0.421 0.422 PACF 0.818 0.046 0.104 0.077 0.000 0.046 -0.035 0.154 0.061 0.046 95% C.L. 0.140 0.214 0.253 0.280 0.301 0.317 0.330 0.340 0.349 0.359 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.670 0.818 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 547011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049280 0.73679262 2 547012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00222718 0.54763770 3 547021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00416479 0.40202719 4 547022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00442909 0.44872645 5 547031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00182979 0.56324643 6 547032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090849 0.42525297 7 547041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162942 0.28141141 8 547042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071951 0.43382302 9 547051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402971 1.15455925 10 547052 1 0.34067705 0.04878321 0.00000000 1.33215427 11 547061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00591287 0.29856756 12 547062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00453051 0.43505806 13 547071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00278752 0.20624037 14 547072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082308 0.37421563 15 547081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00581991 0.45753175 16 547082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00522437 0.53785443 17 547091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033123 0.70026821 18 547092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084503 0.71762431 19 547101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145835 0.32446629 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 547102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110339 0.34684408 21 547111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00364315 0.12894592 22 547112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00283803 0.16205822 23 547121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236229 0.15251471 24 547122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00186271 0.29367688 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 547011 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.406 0.634 2.729 0.281 0.595 2 547012 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.289 0.416 2.835 0.222 0.517 3 547021 1856 1978 123 1.006 0.357 0.598 3.058 0.200 0.762 4 547022 1838 1978 141 1.014 0.437 0.701 2.875 0.235 0.771 5 547031 1861 1978 118 0.999 0.329 0.624 2.966 0.211 0.640 6 547032 1807 1978 172 0.999 0.421 0.555 3.531 0.311 0.631 7 547041 1784 1978 195 1.003 0.492 1.492 4.912 0.257 0.660 8 547042 1794 1978 185 1.000 0.481 1.412 6.092 0.296 0.662 9 547051 1883 1978 96 1.000 0.423 0.798 3.467 0.218 0.779 10 547052 1888 1978 91 1.000 0.325 0.811 4.247 0.205 0.685 11 547061 1837 1978 142 1.003 0.448 1.090 4.283 0.277 0.699 12 547062 1854 1978 125 1.001 0.458 1.406 5.377 0.275 0.661 13 547071 1811 1978 168 1.003 0.484 1.944 7.836 0.261 0.692 14 547072 1775 1978 204 1.002 0.578 1.861 7.297 0.304 0.715 15 547081 1875 1978 104 0.997 0.410 2.245 10.324 0.241 0.694 16 547082 1873 1978 106 0.992 0.487 1.432 6.407 0.244 0.749 17 547091 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.369 0.314 3.352 0.245 0.689 18 547092 1835 1978 144 1.000 0.371 0.564 3.870 0.235 0.619 19 547101 1784 1978 195 1.004 0.519 1.548 5.871 0.277 0.769 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 547102 1805 1978 174 1.003 0.487 1.299 4.950 0.266 0.739 21 547111 1786 1978 193 1.094 0.794 2.273 9.179 0.252 0.786 22 547112 1784 1978 195 1.051 0.657 1.598 5.104 0.275 0.778 23 547121 1821 1978 158 1.014 0.485 2.004 10.422 0.273 0.634 24 547122 1819 1978 160 1.002 0.585 6.140 58.596 0.264 0.238 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.008 0.462 1.407 7.482 0.255 0.674 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.021 0.112 1.172 11.130 0.031 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 1.001 0.453 1.352 4.931 0.259 0.691 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.004 0.101 1.101 3.442 0.041 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.992 0.289 0.314 2.729 0.200 0.238 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.389 0.629 3.409 0.235 0.637 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 179 1.004 0.490 1.730 6.852 0.276 0.755 MAXIMUM VALUE 204 1.094 0.794 6.140 58.596 0.311 0.786 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 547011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 547012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 547021 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 547022 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 547031 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 547032 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 547041 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 547042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 547051 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 547052 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 547061 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 547062 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 547071 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 547072 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 547081 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 547082 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 547091 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 547092 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 547101 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 547102 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 547111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 547112 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 547121 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 547122 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 547011 1833 1978 146 0.996 0.386 0.557 2.626 0.280 0.557 2 547012 1832 1978 147 0.997 0.273 0.407 2.943 0.222 0.447 3 547021 1856 1978 123 0.992 0.284 0.092 2.604 0.199 0.648 4 547022 1838 1978 141 0.993 0.320 0.600 3.496 0.235 0.604 5 547031 1861 1978 118 0.993 0.265 0.742 3.760 0.210 0.452 6 547032 1807 1978 172 0.994 0.402 0.705 4.354 0.311 0.590 7 547041 1784 1978 195 0.995 0.472 1.549 5.005 0.257 0.662 8 547042 1794 1978 185 0.996 0.468 1.418 6.475 0.296 0.633 9 547051 1883 1978 96 0.982 0.361 0.844 3.829 0.217 0.713 10 547052 1888 1978 91 0.992 0.287 0.895 4.367 0.204 0.614 11 547061 1837 1978 142 0.991 0.415 0.942 3.710 0.276 0.664 12 547062 1854 1978 125 0.989 0.405 1.062 4.282 0.275 0.609 13 547071 1811 1978 168 0.992 0.428 1.672 7.094 0.262 0.674 14 547072 1775 1978 204 0.995 0.494 1.177 5.107 0.305 0.674 15 547081 1875 1978 104 0.989 0.334 1.575 7.555 0.241 0.572 16 547082 1873 1978 106 0.988 0.375 0.871 4.778 0.245 0.623 17 547091 1845 1978 134 0.989 0.314 0.622 3.758 0.246 0.554 18 547092 1835 1978 144 0.993 0.295 1.103 6.487 0.236 0.404 19 547101 1784 1978 195 0.992 0.438 1.060 4.425 0.277 0.708 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 547102 1805 1978 174 0.991 0.363 0.561 3.564 0.266 0.609 21 547111 1786 1978 193 0.993 0.419 1.250 6.165 0.251 0.684 22 547112 1784 1978 195 0.987 0.403 1.410 6.399 0.275 0.640 23 547121 1821 1978 158 0.987 0.374 1.195 5.457 0.272 0.467 24 547122 1819 1978 160 0.990 0.478 4.882 44.003 0.263 0.209 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.992 0.377 1.133 6.343 0.255 0.584 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.003 0.069 0.892 8.142 0.031 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 0.992 0.381 1.001 4.396 0.259 0.612 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.004 0.107 0.667 2.549 0.041 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.982 0.265 0.092 2.604 0.199 0.209 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 0.989 0.317 0.663 3.734 0.235 0.556 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 179 0.993 0.424 1.330 6.282 0.276 0.663 MAXIMUM VALUE 204 0.997 0.494 4.882 44.003 0.311 0.713 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.381 0.137 0.008 0.201 3.061 -0.002 0.778 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.002 SERIES 547082 AND 547121 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.778 SERIES 547041 AND 547042 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 55. 153. 231. 276. RBAR 0.441 0.299 0.239 0.295 0.406 SDEV 0.186 0.197 0.205 0.202 0.197 SERR 0.041 0.027 0.017 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.908 0.884 0.873 0.909 0.942 NSS 12.5 17.8 21.9 23.8 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1775 1978 204 0.984 0.291 0.829 4.434 0.205 0.586 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.440 0.213 0.071 55 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.94 1.01 1.10 2.05 10.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.583 0.310 0.132 0.006 -0.045 -0.041 -0.139 -0.159 -0.121 -0.064 PACF 0.583 -0.046 -0.045 -0.065 -0.010 0.018 -0.171 -0.016 0.018 0.030 95% C.L. 0.140 0.181 0.192 0.193 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.196 0.198 0.200 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.343 0.585 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.667 0.470 0.289 0.176 0.072 0.034 -0.056 -0.080 -0.074 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.667 2 0.636 0.046 3 0.640 0.093 -0.074 4 0.639 0.094 -0.070 -0.006 5 0.639 0.090 -0.065 0.029 -0.056 6 0.640 0.089 -0.063 0.027 -0.073 0.026 7 0.643 0.081 -0.060 0.020 -0.062 0.101 -0.117 8 0.644 0.080 -0.059 0.020 -0.062 0.101 -0.120 0.005 9 0.644 0.084 -0.063 0.021 -0.062 0.103 -0.123 -0.015 0.032 10 0.643 0.084 -0.061 0.020 -0.062 0.102 -0.122 -0.016 0.024 0.012 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1717.89 1599.85 1601.41 1602.30 1604.29 1605.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1607.51 1606.71 1608.71 1610.50 1612.47 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.667 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 44.48 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 180.12 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.667 0.445 0.297 0.198 0.132 0.088 0.059 0.039 0.026 0.0174 0.012 0.008 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 547011 1 0.335 0.560 2 547012 1 0.212 0.459 3 547021 1 0.423 0.649 4 547022 1 0.389 0.607 5 547031 1 0.211 0.459 6 547032 1 0.366 0.590 7 547041 1 0.470 0.683 8 547042 1 0.415 0.644 9 547051 1 0.520 0.721 10 547052 1 0.390 0.620 11 547061 1 0.443 0.666 12 547062 1 0.373 0.610 13 547071 1 0.479 0.692 14 547072 1 0.460 0.678 15 547081 1 0.348 0.576 16 547082 1 0.402 0.633 17 547091 1 0.316 0.561 18 547092 1 0.165 0.406 19 547101 1 0.504 0.710 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 547102 1 0.383 0.614 21 547111 1 0.488 0.698 22 547112 1 0.414 0.642 23 547121 1 0.243 0.471 24 547122 1 0.052 0.210 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.367 0.590 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.390 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.126 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.052 0.210 LOWER HINGE 1 0.326 0.560 UPPER HINGE 1 0.452 0.672 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.520 0.721 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 547011 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.320 0.692 3.313 0.353 -0.098 2 547012 1832 1978 147 1.000 0.241 0.104 3.091 0.254 0.003 3 547021 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.216 0.091 2.768 0.257 -0.033 4 547022 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.254 0.180 2.836 0.285 0.111 5 547031 1861 1978 118 1.000 0.235 0.294 3.711 0.258 -0.015 6 547032 1807 1978 172 1.000 0.325 0.358 3.525 0.350 0.099 7 547041 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.339 0.976 5.136 0.351 0.036 8 547042 1794 1978 185 1.001 0.351 1.031 6.585 0.354 0.019 9 547051 1883 1978 96 1.000 0.249 0.235 2.945 0.283 0.015 10 547052 1888 1978 91 1.000 0.224 0.559 3.337 0.253 0.054 11 547061 1837 1978 142 1.000 0.309 0.483 3.117 0.347 0.003 12 547062 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.321 0.786 4.013 0.353 -0.026 13 547071 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.306 0.818 6.009 0.345 -0.038 14 547072 1775 1978 204 1.003 0.354 0.979 4.685 0.364 0.007 15 547081 1875 1978 104 1.000 0.273 1.101 7.369 0.315 -0.088 16 547082 1873 1978 106 1.000 0.290 0.481 5.390 0.332 -0.023 17 547091 1845 1978 134 1.000 0.259 0.344 3.139 0.304 -0.034 18 547092 1835 1978 144 1.000 0.269 1.149 6.348 0.276 -0.004 19 547101 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.308 0.394 3.442 0.360 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 547102 1805 1978 174 1.000 0.287 0.402 3.126 0.344 -0.058 21 547111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.298 0.474 4.099 0.339 -0.037 22 547112 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.309 0.325 3.869 0.341 0.040 23 547121 1821 1978 158 1.000 0.330 1.256 6.360 0.340 -0.080 24 547122 1819 1978 160 1.000 0.467 5.583 52.773 0.287 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.297 0.796 6.291 0.319 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.001 0.054 1.077 9.996 0.039 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.302 0.482 3.790 0.340 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.066 0.643 2.568 0.066 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.216 0.091 2.768 0.253 -0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.257 0.334 3.132 0.284 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 179 1.000 0.323 0.978 5.700 0.350 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 204 1.003 0.467 5.583 52.773 0.364 0.111 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.350 0.100 0.006 0.101 4.112 0.002 0.693 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.002 SERIES 547072 AND 547122 160 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.693 SERIES 547051 AND 547052 91 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.04 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 21. 55. 153. 231. 276. RBAR 0.424 0.303 0.283 0.324 0.352 SDEV 0.139 0.153 0.161 0.158 0.132 SERR 0.030 0.021 0.013 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.902 0.886 0.896 0.919 0.929 NSS 12.5 17.8 21.9 23.8 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1775 1978 204 0.996 0.227 0.495 4.193 0.253 0.019 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.139 0.081 66 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.51 1.00 1.06 1.57 30.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.019 -0.011 -0.050 -0.053 -0.085 0.112 -0.062 -0.102 -0.011 -0.007 PACF 0.019 -0.011 -0.050 -0.051 -0.085 0.112 -0.075 -0.110 -0.006 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.010 -0.049 -0.050 -0.086 0.115 -0.063 -0.100 -0.009 -0.008 PACF 0.000 -0.010 -0.049 -0.050 -0.088 0.112 -0.071 -0.111 -0.008 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1775 1978 204 0.999 0.293 0.774 4.126 0.194 0.632 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.629 0.365 0.174 0.056 -0.005 0.010 -0.075 -0.116 -0.083 -0.052 PACF 0.629 -0.052 -0.058 -0.029 -0.012 0.060 -0.159 -0.026 0.061 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.140 0.187 0.201 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.207 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.400 0.631 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES