RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED017E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED017E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 542 1 Arjeplog WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 542 2 Sweeden Norway spruce 600 6604-1759 1634 1978 - 542 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 542011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1951 1951 / 1959 1959 / 1961 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 542012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 3 GAPS / 1928 1928 / 1931 1931 / 1953 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 542021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1790 1790 / 1806 1806 / 1887 1887 / 1902 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 542022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1928 1928 / 1931 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 542042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1948 1948 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 542091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1856 1856 / 1948 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 542092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1856 1856 / 1902 1902 / 1948 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 542121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1731 1731 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 542122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1741 1741 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 542011 1747 1978 232 0.421 0.313 1.836 6.227 0.285 0.890 2 542012 1727 1978 252 0.593 0.460 1.598 5.790 0.276 0.907 3 542021 1674 1978 305 0.427 0.395 2.073 7.765 0.334 0.915 4 542022 1740 1978 239 0.403 0.281 1.481 5.043 0.341 0.861 5 542031 1850 1978 129 1.191 0.572 1.457 4.754 0.211 0.837 6 542032 1843 1978 136 1.088 0.608 1.407 4.209 0.202 0.900 7 542041 1744 1978 235 0.590 0.325 0.960 3.606 0.343 0.803 8 542042 1749 1978 230 0.455 0.284 1.045 3.436 0.355 0.836 9 542051 1838 1978 141 0.996 0.421 0.871 3.189 0.190 0.827 10 542052 1839 1978 140 0.945 0.648 0.817 2.708 0.214 0.936 11 542061 1862 1978 117 0.847 0.355 0.333 2.777 0.267 0.743 12 542062 1853 1978 126 1.058 0.265 -0.149 3.046 0.224 0.444 13 542071 1809 1977 169 0.619 0.337 1.028 4.304 0.289 0.811 14 542072 1856 1978 123 0.465 0.256 0.391 2.147 0.356 0.792 15 542081 1848 1937 90 1.398 0.464 0.243 2.376 0.223 0.710 16 542082 1856 1978 123 1.349 0.574 0.015 2.497 0.218 0.835 17 542091 1762 1978 217 0.706 0.361 1.345 5.296 0.230 0.837 18 542092 1842 1978 137 0.730 0.325 0.534 2.475 0.252 0.719 19 542101 1866 1978 113 1.142 0.269 0.610 3.346 0.180 0.596 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 542102 1858 1978 121 1.090 0.234 -0.028 3.092 0.184 0.502 21 542111 1853 1978 126 1.135 0.364 0.886 4.518 0.217 0.619 22 542112 1854 1978 125 1.040 0.328 0.147 2.396 0.214 0.687 23 542121 1634 1858 225 0.672 0.335 0.271 2.400 0.345 0.695 24 542122 1639 1855 217 0.500 0.267 0.447 2.742 0.335 0.747 25 542131 1741 1978 238 0.508 0.348 1.602 5.377 0.306 0.907 26 542132 1753 1843 91 0.830 0.450 0.860 3.145 0.247 0.900 27 542141 1852 1978 127 1.034 0.558 1.283 5.058 0.321 0.729 28 542142 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.577 1.121 4.171 0.306 0.796 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1634 TO 1978 345 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 165 0.830 0.392 0.874 3.853 0.267 0.778 STANDARD DEVIATION 57 0.302 0.122 0.599 1.402 0.059 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.839 0.351 0.879 3.391 0.260 0.807 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.524 0.163 1.013 2.173 0.112 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.403 0.234 -0.149 2.147 0.180 0.444 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.549 0.299 0.362 2.725 0.216 0.715 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 226 1.073 0.462 1.376 4.899 0.327 0.875 MAXIMUM VALUE 301 1.398 0.648 2.073 7.765 0.356 0.936 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 331 0.559 0.205 0.011 -0.386 2.433 0.005 0.963 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.005 SERIES 542021 AND 542062 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.963 SERIES 542131 AND 542132 91 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 87.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 3. 10. 55. 55. 36. 55. 276. 276. RBAR 0.687 0.448 0.329 0.597 0.606 0.705 0.564 0.384 0.408 0.492 SDEV 0.000 0.358 0.223 0.216 0.270 0.091 0.231 0.199 0.226 0.201 SERR 0.000 0.207 0.129 0.068 0.036 0.012 0.038 0.027 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.861 0.726 0.751 0.936 0.945 0.965 0.954 0.933 0.945 0.960 NSS 2.8 3.3 6.1 9.9 11.1 11.7 15.9 22.3 25.0 25.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 276. RBAR 0.644 SDEV 0.143 SERR 0.009 EPS 0.978 NSS 24.5 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1978 345 0.741 0.260 0.331 3.089 0.225 0.718 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.372 0.289 0.109 55 290 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.95 1.01 1.15 3.10 16.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 137. 104. 90. 124. 228. 305. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.716 0.590 0.600 0.565 0.479 0.419 0.438 0.464 0.424 0.388 PACF 0.716 0.158 0.275 0.085 -0.035 -0.028 0.110 0.138 0.017 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.108 0.153 0.178 0.200 0.218 0.229 0.238 0.247 0.257 0.265 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.567 0.533 -0.006 0.225 0.092 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 542011 1 1.08670831 0.03260537 0.00000000 0.27506518 2 542012 1 1.45239782 0.00949389 0.00000000 0.02210646 3 542021 1 1.58897197 0.02301010 0.00000000 0.19836073 4 542022 1 0.94517648 0.01747889 0.00000000 0.17984863 5 542031 1 1.99118781 0.04999715 0.00000000 0.89041430 6 542032 1 1.96568322 0.02763751 0.00000000 0.58466476 7 542041 1 0.88153172 0.01724529 0.00000000 0.37772548 8 542042 1 0.94039094 0.01195647 0.00000000 0.13365075 9 542051 1 1.35368145 0.01920922 0.00000000 0.53353131 10 542052 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 542061 1 1.08173227 0.02013133 0.00000000 0.43541065 12 542062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134917 1.14329147 13 542071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00534752 1.07353342 14 542072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00539062 0.79934025 15 542081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00851858 1.78581774 16 542082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01271182 2.13683200 17 542091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00379958 1.09335947 18 542092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00703185 1.16309667 19 542101 1 0.93928802 0.28612855 0.00000000 1.11676586 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 542102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143741 1.17784715 21 542111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00531024 1.47243810 22 542112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00459668 1.32999098 23 542121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00355471 1.07190621 24 542122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00343589 0.87447786 25 542131 1 1.07207584 0.01362267 0.00000000 0.19284062 26 542132 1 1.42967045 0.01951100 0.00000000 0.16814697 27 542141 1 1.37525380 0.03202460 0.00000000 0.70720667 28 542142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00762634 1.52592528 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 542011 1747 1978 232 1.002 0.523 1.707 8.558 0.292 0.714 2 542012 1727 1978 252 0.995 0.423 0.507 3.014 0.274 0.699 3 542021 1674 1978 305 0.994 0.476 0.805 3.604 0.347 0.648 4 542022 1740 1978 239 0.999 0.392 0.709 3.883 0.344 0.482 5 542031 1850 1978 129 1.000 0.304 0.657 4.146 0.210 0.611 6 542032 1843 1978 136 1.002 0.310 0.662 2.892 0.200 0.640 7 542041 1744 1978 235 1.001 0.433 0.657 3.469 0.342 0.577 8 542042 1749 1978 230 0.999 0.380 0.905 5.241 0.358 0.303 9 542051 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.262 0.968 4.957 0.189 0.598 10 542052 1839 1978 140 1.002 0.295 0.670 4.428 0.213 0.579 11 542061 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.313 0.137 3.167 0.265 0.502 12 542062 1853 1978 126 1.000 0.245 -0.213 3.142 0.222 0.406 13 542071 1809 1977 169 1.003 0.324 0.476 3.020 0.287 0.419 14 542072 1856 1978 123 1.024 0.450 0.817 3.885 0.354 0.554 15 542081 1848 1937 90 0.999 0.283 -0.049 2.875 0.221 0.555 16 542082 1856 1978 123 1.005 0.318 0.077 4.321 0.216 0.661 17 542091 1762 1978 217 0.996 0.394 1.149 4.451 0.229 0.703 18 542092 1842 1978 137 1.019 0.341 1.234 5.433 0.254 0.478 19 542101 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.223 0.654 3.815 0.177 0.569 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 542102 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.213 0.155 3.241 0.182 0.478 21 542111 1853 1978 126 0.999 0.262 0.580 3.183 0.215 0.461 22 542112 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.278 0.259 2.887 0.213 0.609 23 542121 1634 1858 225 0.987 0.365 0.446 3.289 0.346 0.438 24 542122 1639 1855 217 0.997 0.329 0.204 3.641 0.334 0.276 25 542131 1741 1978 238 1.007 0.390 0.572 3.260 0.305 0.588 26 542132 1753 1843 91 1.002 0.408 1.134 4.903 0.244 0.761 27 542141 1852 1978 127 1.000 0.436 0.988 3.989 0.319 0.610 28 542142 1842 1978 137 1.002 0.482 0.763 3.190 0.305 0.723 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.001 0.352 0.630 3.924 0.266 0.559 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.007 0.083 0.422 1.173 0.060 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 137 1.000 0.335 0.657 3.622 0.260 0.578 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.003 0.126 0.509 1.199 0.112 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.987 0.213 -0.213 2.875 0.177 0.276 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 0.999 0.289 0.352 3.175 0.214 0.478 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 1.002 0.415 0.861 4.375 0.327 0.644 MAXIMUM VALUE 305 1.024 0.523 1.707 8.558 0.358 0.761 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 542011 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 542012 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 542021 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 542022 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 542031 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 542032 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 542041 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 542042 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 542051 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 542052 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 542061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 542062 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 542071 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 542072 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 542081 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 542082 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 542091 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 542092 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 542101 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 542102 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 542111 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 542112 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 542121 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 542122 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 542131 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 542132 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 542141 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 542142 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 542011 1747 1978 232 0.990 0.473 1.233 5.996 0.292 0.697 2 542012 1727 1978 252 0.990 0.388 0.512 3.413 0.274 0.628 3 542021 1674 1978 305 0.988 0.442 0.703 3.471 0.347 0.600 4 542022 1740 1978 239 0.991 0.350 0.391 3.186 0.344 0.377 5 542031 1850 1978 129 0.997 0.274 0.407 3.504 0.210 0.544 6 542032 1843 1978 136 0.997 0.272 0.415 2.764 0.199 0.550 7 542041 1744 1978 235 0.993 0.406 0.581 3.168 0.342 0.519 8 542042 1749 1978 230 0.998 0.371 0.900 5.614 0.358 0.251 9 542051 1838 1978 141 0.999 0.254 0.794 4.462 0.188 0.577 10 542052 1839 1978 140 0.999 0.290 0.673 4.634 0.212 0.586 11 542061 1862 1978 117 0.996 0.297 0.152 3.319 0.265 0.452 12 542062 1853 1978 126 0.998 0.226 -0.277 2.989 0.222 0.304 13 542071 1809 1977 169 0.999 0.319 0.421 2.979 0.287 0.409 14 542072 1856 1978 123 0.986 0.349 0.399 3.582 0.354 0.356 15 542081 1848 1937 90 0.994 0.244 -0.031 3.288 0.220 0.406 16 542082 1856 1978 123 0.995 0.296 -0.182 3.569 0.216 0.617 17 542091 1762 1978 217 0.992 0.337 0.795 3.497 0.229 0.607 18 542092 1842 1978 137 0.997 0.295 0.900 4.653 0.254 0.361 19 542101 1866 1978 113 0.999 0.207 0.173 3.229 0.177 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 542102 1858 1978 121 0.999 0.210 0.233 3.454 0.182 0.467 21 542111 1853 1978 126 0.997 0.236 0.386 2.961 0.215 0.360 22 542112 1854 1978 125 0.997 0.255 -0.052 2.664 0.213 0.539 23 542121 1634 1858 225 0.998 0.346 0.371 3.488 0.346 0.338 24 542122 1639 1855 217 0.999 0.329 0.256 3.841 0.334 0.262 25 542131 1741 1978 238 0.997 0.357 0.397 3.210 0.305 0.538 26 542132 1753 1843 91 0.985 0.331 0.687 4.287 0.244 0.655 27 542141 1852 1978 127 0.995 0.399 0.638 2.766 0.319 0.542 28 542142 1842 1978 137 0.981 0.397 0.584 2.909 0.304 0.606 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.995 0.320 0.445 3.603 0.266 0.488 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.005 0.070 0.343 0.819 0.060 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 137 0.997 0.324 0.411 3.434 0.259 0.529 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.007 0.101 0.436 0.633 0.112 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.981 0.207 -0.277 2.664 0.177 0.251 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 0.992 0.263 0.245 3.078 0.214 0.369 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 0.998 0.364 0.680 3.711 0.326 0.593 MAXIMUM VALUE 305 0.999 0.473 1.233 5.996 0.358 0.697 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 331 0.526 0.132 0.007 -0.122 3.046 0.159 0.923 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.159 SERIES 542021 AND 542081 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.923 SERIES 542141 AND 542142 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 87.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 3. 10. 55. 55. 36. 55. 276. 276. RBAR 0.711 0.167 0.480 0.458 0.543 0.753 0.525 0.276 0.412 0.553 SDEV 0.000 0.548 0.241 0.291 0.153 0.079 0.197 0.216 0.183 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.316 0.139 0.092 0.021 0.011 0.033 0.029 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.874 0.395 0.850 0.893 0.930 0.973 0.946 0.895 0.946 0.969 NSS 2.8 3.3 6.1 9.9 11.1 11.7 15.9 22.3 25.0 25.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 276. RBAR 0.639 SDEV 0.124 SERR 0.007 EPS 0.977 NSS 24.5 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1978 345 0.985 0.255 0.215 3.397 0.236 0.427 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.267 0.097 0.102 81 264 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.00 1.08 1.42 16.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.426 0.261 0.279 0.172 0.011 -0.048 -0.021 0.008 -0.008 -0.038 PACF 0.426 0.097 0.169 -0.014 -0.129 -0.084 0.017 0.070 0.023 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.108 0.126 0.132 0.138 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.213 0.369 0.031 0.170 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.423 0.322 0.307 0.125 -0.001 0.019 -0.024 -0.078 -0.098 -0.094 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.423 2 0.349 0.175 3 0.322 0.122 0.152 4 0.338 0.134 0.184 -0.100 5 0.324 0.158 0.202 -0.055 -0.132 6 0.326 0.159 0.199 -0.058 -0.137 0.015 7 0.326 0.159 0.199 -0.058 -0.137 0.015 0.001 8 0.326 0.160 0.194 -0.060 -0.130 0.021 0.013 -0.037 9 0.324 0.160 0.195 -0.069 -0.134 0.034 0.024 -0.015 -0.068 10 0.322 0.160 0.196 -0.068 -0.138 0.032 0.030 -0.011 -0.058 -0.030 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2973.45 2907.49 2898.81 2892.75 2891.28 2887.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2889.13 2891.13 2892.65 2893.07 2894.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.324 0.158 0.202 -0.055 -0.132 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 132.17 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.324 0.263 0.339 0.161 0.009 0.039 -0.007 -0.048 -0.030 -.0222 -0.026 -0.015 -0.005 -0.004 -0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 542011 5 0.549 0.671 0.076 0.108 -0.077 -0.071 2 542012 5 0.437 0.479 0.173 0.120 0.045 -0.115 3 542021 5 0.463 0.358 0.197 0.259 -0.046 0.024 4 542022 5 0.225 0.267 0.178 0.226 -0.021 -0.115 5 542031 5 0.317 0.524 -0.021 0.136 0.016 -0.064 6 542032 5 0.332 0.488 0.062 0.142 -0.007 -0.101 7 542041 5 0.313 0.443 0.113 0.171 -0.107 -0.051 8 542042 5 0.088 0.222 0.063 0.099 0.058 -0.080 9 542051 5 0.374 0.481 0.121 0.162 -0.045 -0.128 10 542052 5 0.404 0.473 0.164 0.122 0.027 -0.241 11 542061 5 0.286 0.328 0.223 0.187 -0.103 -0.162 12 542062 5 0.158 0.256 0.111 0.068 -0.062 -0.176 13 542071 5 0.264 0.322 0.160 0.238 -0.163 -0.150 14 542072 5 0.203 0.309 0.109 0.197 -0.169 -0.104 15 542081 5 0.257 0.387 -0.008 -0.119 -0.230 0.021 16 542082 5 0.438 0.459 0.194 0.194 -0.081 -0.069 17 542091 5 0.409 0.481 0.253 0.007 -0.099 0.032 18 542092 5 0.193 0.270 0.201 0.118 0.010 -0.123 19 542101 5 0.316 0.402 0.199 0.143 -0.162 -0.091 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 542102 5 0.299 0.345 0.261 0.063 -0.038 -0.201 21 542111 5 0.147 0.371 -0.029 0.045 -0.070 0.032 22 542112 5 0.324 0.452 0.184 0.009 -0.078 0.035 23 542121 5 0.190 0.282 -0.005 0.237 0.055 -0.004 24 542122 5 0.094 0.233 0.036 0.031 0.086 0.060 25 542131 5 0.348 0.432 0.124 0.232 -0.110 -0.052 26 542132 5 0.515 0.575 0.083 0.226 -0.114 -0.195 27 542141 5 0.349 0.471 0.107 0.210 -0.192 -0.049 28 542142 5 0.425 0.525 0.086 0.249 -0.221 0.041 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.311 0.404 0.122 0.139 -0.068 -0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.121 0.112 0.081 0.090 0.086 0.083 MEDIAN 5 0.316 0.417 0.117 0.142 -0.073 -0.076 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.193 0.164 0.120 0.134 0.114 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.088 0.222 -0.029 -0.119 -0.230 -0.241 LOWER HINGE 5 0.214 0.316 0.069 0.084 -0.112 -0.126 UPPER HINGE 5 0.406 0.480 0.189 0.218 0.002 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.549 0.671 0.261 0.259 0.086 0.060 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 542011 1747 1978 232 1.000 0.317 0.564 5.224 0.348 0.037 2 542012 1727 1978 252 1.000 0.292 0.660 5.191 0.310 0.005 3 542021 1674 1978 305 1.000 0.324 0.256 3.312 0.368 0.007 4 542022 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.308 0.075 3.152 0.375 0.005 5 542031 1850 1978 129 1.000 0.226 0.631 4.772 0.249 0.003 6 542032 1843 1978 136 1.000 0.222 0.486 4.203 0.237 0.001 7 542041 1744 1978 235 1.000 0.336 0.051 3.107 0.386 0.006 8 542042 1749 1978 230 1.000 0.354 0.668 5.659 0.390 -0.003 9 542051 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.201 0.363 4.408 0.228 0.007 10 542052 1839 1978 140 1.000 0.224 0.381 4.992 0.244 0.005 11 542061 1862 1978 117 1.000 0.251 -0.173 3.238 0.282 0.008 12 542062 1853 1978 126 1.000 0.209 -0.348 3.010 0.239 0.023 13 542071 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.274 -0.083 3.237 0.328 -0.011 14 542072 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.312 0.192 3.325 0.360 0.013 15 542081 1848 1937 90 1.000 0.210 -0.010 3.058 0.252 -0.005 16 542082 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.221 -0.100 3.652 0.255 -0.001 17 542091 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.259 0.421 3.625 0.290 0.001 18 542092 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.265 0.724 4.388 0.281 0.004 19 542101 1866 1978 113 1.000 0.171 0.021 2.899 0.201 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 542102 1858 1978 121 1.000 0.176 -0.116 2.546 0.206 0.007 21 542111 1853 1978 126 1.000 0.219 0.502 3.530 0.248 -0.002 22 542112 1854 1978 125 1.000 0.211 -0.230 2.506 0.249 0.004 23 542121 1634 1858 225 1.000 0.313 0.143 3.167 0.376 -0.002 24 542122 1639 1855 217 1.000 0.314 0.330 4.727 0.361 0.004 25 542131 1741 1978 238 1.000 0.288 -0.047 3.708 0.342 -0.002 26 542132 1753 1843 91 1.000 0.234 -0.295 3.870 0.284 -0.041 27 542141 1852 1978 127 1.000 0.322 0.270 3.923 0.378 0.002 28 542142 1842 1978 137 1.000 0.301 0.094 3.247 0.346 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.263 0.194 3.774 0.300 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 58 0.000 0.052 0.314 0.852 0.061 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 137 1.000 0.262 0.168 3.577 0.287 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.000 0.093 0.519 1.238 0.112 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.171 -0.348 2.506 0.201 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.220 -0.065 3.160 0.249 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 227 1.000 0.313 0.454 4.398 0.361 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 305 1.000 0.354 0.724 5.659 0.390 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 331 0.556 0.102 0.006 0.224 3.026 0.302 0.890 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.302 SERIES 542092 AND 542112 125 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.890 SERIES 542141 AND 542142 127 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 87.57 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 33.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1690. 1715. 1740. 1765. 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. CORR 1. 3. 3. 10. 55. 55. 36. 55. 276. 276. RBAR 0.754 0.133 0.395 0.510 0.590 0.705 0.593 0.413 0.505 0.592 SDEV 0.000 0.548 0.227 0.207 0.120 0.097 0.114 0.162 0.145 0.117 SERR 0.000 0.316 0.131 0.066 0.016 0.013 0.019 0.022 0.009 0.007 EPS 0.896 0.333 0.801 0.911 0.941 0.965 0.959 0.940 0.962 0.973 NSS 2.8 3.3 6.1 9.9 11.1 11.7 15.9 22.3 25.0 25.0 YEAR 1940. CORR 276. RBAR 0.628 SDEV 0.105 SERR 0.006 EPS 0.976 NSS 24.5 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1978 345 0.995 0.219 -0.172 3.535 0.262 0.012 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.150 0.049 0.107 91 254 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.36 1.00 1.08 1.44 5.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 -0.038 0.027 0.023 -0.064 -0.084 -0.013 0.042 0.032 0.007 PACF 0.012 -0.038 0.028 0.021 -0.063 -0.082 -0.017 0.040 0.038 0.010 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.109 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.001 0.005 -0.001 -0.001 -0.080 -0.017 0.038 0.032 0.008 PACF -0.005 0.001 0.005 0.000 -0.001 -0.080 -0.018 0.039 0.033 0.009 95% C.L. 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.007 -0.005 0.001 0.005 0.000 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1634 1978 345 0.994 0.250 0.203 3.409 0.230 0.419 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.418 0.315 0.286 0.104 -0.015 -0.046 -0.050 -0.032 -0.019 -0.034 PACF 0.418 0.170 0.132 -0.105 -0.126 -0.050 0.024 0.053 0.019 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.108 0.125 0.134 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.238 0.325 0.159 0.188 -0.066 -0.132 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.05 MINUTES