RUN: swed002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED021E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED021E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 728 1 Tornetrask fos., Bartoli WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 728 2 Sweeden Scots pine, Scotch pine 400 6814-1940 441 1936 - 728 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 728310 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1742 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 728320 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1453 1453 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 728330 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1644 1647 / 1707 1707 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 728340 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1601 1601 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 728350 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1601 1601 / 1718 1718 / 1724 1724 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 728370 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1680 1680 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 728390 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1327 1327 / 1642 1642 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 728430 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1474 1474 / 1510 1510 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 728450 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 167 IN 4 GAPS / 1106 1106 / 1120 1120 / 1133 1296 / 1309 1309 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 728460 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1199 1199 / 1277 1277 / 1292 1292 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 728500 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1255 1255 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 728520 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1263 1263 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 728530 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1197 1197 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 728740 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 578 582 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 728760 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 536 536 / 677 677 / 685 685 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 728810 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 452 452 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 728310 1336 1947 612 0.366 0.241 1.992 8.940 0.240 0.883 2 728320 1446 1789 344 0.517 0.294 0.882 2.818 0.253 0.852 3 728330 1486 1789 304 0.352 0.325 1.428 4.489 0.311 0.938 4 728340 1353 1611 259 0.304 0.223 1.619 5.829 0.271 0.894 5 728350 1455 1734 280 0.519 0.226 0.112 2.330 0.244 0.764 6 728360 1434 1729 296 0.503 0.226 0.673 3.725 0.269 0.757 7 728370 1315 1698 384 0.483 0.318 0.980 3.430 0.290 0.860 8 728380 1395 1602 208 0.559 0.250 0.935 3.966 0.228 0.828 9 728390 1292 1666 375 0.333 0.260 1.539 5.100 0.273 0.900 10 728400 1348 1632 285 0.485 0.240 0.923 3.741 0.219 0.851 11 728410 1267 1522 256 0.461 0.295 1.406 4.807 0.251 0.893 12 728420 1316 1525 210 0.392 0.157 0.269 2.404 0.237 0.777 13 728430 1242 1516 275 0.572 0.485 1.502 4.377 0.305 0.896 14 728440 1303 1501 199 0.539 0.215 0.407 3.165 0.235 0.751 15 728450 867 1452 586 0.299 0.147 0.314 2.358 0.266 0.805 16 728460 931 1312 382 0.500 0.456 2.178 9.620 0.324 0.888 17 728470 1077 1382 306 0.358 0.140 0.898 5.038 0.278 0.646 18 728480 1166 1356 191 0.627 0.436 1.027 3.222 0.236 0.924 19 728490 1140 1338 199 0.487 0.181 0.566 3.319 0.264 0.662 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 728500 1052 1318 267 0.415 0.244 0.966 3.394 0.282 0.846 21 728510 1170 1261 92 0.568 0.409 1.003 2.872 0.301 0.840 22 728520 1092 1297 206 0.487 0.222 0.884 3.250 0.226 0.773 23 728530 958 1227 270 0.583 0.346 0.757 2.605 0.257 0.852 24 728540 801 1211 411 0.599 0.230 -0.001 2.716 0.220 0.757 25 728550 899 1176 278 0.350 0.169 0.919 3.520 0.254 0.790 26 728560 805 1147 343 0.521 0.235 0.260 2.808 0.307 0.677 27 728570 842 1110 269 0.370 0.153 0.676 3.478 0.278 0.703 28 728580 747 1090 344 0.278 0.223 1.694 4.995 0.277 0.925 29 728600 547 1036 490 0.295 0.139 0.823 3.808 0.353 0.592 30 728610 664 1040 377 0.682 0.373 1.472 6.011 0.258 0.798 31 728620 850 1019 170 0.495 0.166 0.371 2.749 0.286 0.447 32 728630 671 1025 355 0.334 0.105 0.182 4.070 0.275 0.476 33 728640 691 1015 325 0.475 0.264 1.483 4.875 0.229 0.850 34 728660 700 920 221 0.359 0.162 0.437 2.813 0.293 0.717 35 728670 668 984 317 0.628 0.300 0.525 3.043 0.285 0.760 36 728690 606 894 289 0.338 0.182 1.354 5.042 0.269 0.806 37 728710 626 814 189 0.838 0.460 1.292 4.570 0.239 0.826 38 728720 557 784 228 0.409 0.184 0.416 2.691 0.290 0.738 39 728730 591 748 158 0.312 0.106 0.249 3.065 0.315 0.426 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 728740 547 775 229 0.638 0.278 1.034 4.200 0.220 0.800 41 728750 547 720 174 0.805 0.376 0.360 2.072 0.248 0.836 42 728760 448 703 256 0.510 0.341 1.689 5.306 0.321 0.788 43 728770 497 694 198 0.559 0.274 0.791 3.252 0.243 0.812 44 728780 517 647 131 0.597 0.200 0.331 2.721 0.258 0.594 45 728790 542 671 130 0.916 0.310 0.554 2.924 0.274 0.515 46 728800 452 638 187 0.688 0.310 0.376 3.118 0.238 0.797 47 728810 441 592 152 0.789 0.252 0.716 3.784 0.199 0.644 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 47 FROM 441 TO 1947 1507 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 273 0.500 0.258 0.878 3.882 0.266 0.769 STANDARD DEVIATION 99 0.152 0.094 0.529 1.509 0.033 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 269 0.495 0.241 0.882 3.430 0.266 0.798 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 135 0.216 0.127 0.911 1.685 0.046 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.278 0.105 -0.001 2.072 0.199 0.426 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.362 0.183 0.411 2.845 0.240 0.727 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 334 0.578 0.310 1.323 4.530 0.285 0.851 MAXIMUM VALUE 611 0.916 0.485 2.178 9.620 0.353 0.938 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 401 0.399 0.231 0.012 -0.723 3.361 -0.452 0.868 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.452 SERIES 728430 AND 728450 211 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.868 SERIES 728460 AND 728670 54 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 37.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 3.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| 51 RUNNING RBAR SEGMENTS CALCULATED AND STORED IN FILE |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 441 1947 1507 0.439 0.197 1.444 7.028 0.209 0.832 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.352 0.205 0.106 422 1085 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.78 1.89 1.00 1.20 3.09 25.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.14 0.00 0.80 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 269. 135. 92. 199. 334. 612. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.832 0.793 0.776 0.746 0.733 0.708 0.697 0.681 0.665 0.639 PACF 0.832 0.329 0.218 0.085 0.098 0.029 0.061 0.032 0.022 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.052 0.080 0.098 0.113 0.126 0.137 0.146 0.155 0.162 0.169 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.757 0.421 0.170 0.179 0.061 0.105 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 728310 1 0.97926944 0.01977555 0.00000000 0.28531274 2 728320 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200812 0.86365867 3 728330 1 1.02524054 0.01529006 0.00000000 0.13038708 4 728340 1 0.68946773 0.01678656 0.00000000 0.14757134 5 728350 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00211295 0.81189352 6 728360 1 0.52835470 0.01013646 0.00000000 0.33688703 7 728370 1 0.98030287 0.03566171 0.00000000 0.41110837 8 728380 1 0.61452508 0.00968963 0.00000000 0.29615554 9 728390 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088373 0.49757633 10 728400 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002061 0.48228070 11 728410 1 0.96640956 0.01326167 0.00000000 0.18797801 12 728420 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101577 0.49921167 13 728430 1 1.75213063 0.01775331 0.00000000 0.21624443 14 728440 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184998 0.72449523 15 728450 1 0.27744570 0.00793263 0.00000000 0.18033446 16 728460 1 1.53426492 0.01224979 0.00000000 0.17480950 17 728470 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072638 0.46960440 18 728480 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 728490 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056412 0.54354805 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 728500 1 0.48475778 0.01951744 0.00000000 0.32295015 21 728510 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 728520 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00275448 0.77100134 23 728530 1 1.25032032 0.00731526 0.00000000 0.03913877 24 728540 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057477 0.71772146 25 728550 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041903 0.29147393 26 728560 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040848 0.59139585 27 728570 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073094 0.46864006 28 728580 1 0.85200560 0.01593370 0.00000000 0.12482622 29 728600 1 0.21184540 0.00884508 0.00000000 0.24677609 30 728610 1 0.65104270 0.00663765 0.00000000 0.44394553 31 728620 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022358 0.47541317 32 728630 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007231 0.34732106 33 728640 1 0.94690293 0.01618003 0.00000000 0.29706061 34 728660 1 0.18803944 0.02161028 0.00000000 0.32020637 35 728670 1 0.54635859 0.00757540 0.00000000 0.42153141 36 728690 1 0.47292957 0.00917502 0.00000000 0.17256087 37 728710 1 1.35337818 0.01447462 0.00000000 0.37859532 38 728720 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076408 0.32189929 39 728730 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123163 0.21373135 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 728740 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00300173 0.98844153 41 728750 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00517705 1.25781941 42 728760 1 1.02351642 0.01499629 0.00000000 0.24715653 43 728770 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00385744 0.94260269 44 728780 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024630 0.58069056 45 728790 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00334919 1.13514137 46 728800 1 0.66029006 0.02020114 0.00000000 0.51847535 47 728810 1 0.73488683 0.01559434 0.00000000 0.51441675 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 728310 1336 1947 612 1.000 0.460 0.700 3.447 0.240 0.792 2 728320 1446 1789 344 1.025 0.434 0.544 2.841 0.256 0.725 3 728330 1486 1789 304 1.031 0.786 2.412 11.121 0.314 0.903 4 728340 1353 1611 259 1.001 0.469 0.828 3.169 0.273 0.708 5 728350 1455 1734 280 0.990 0.309 0.320 3.446 0.246 0.525 6 728360 1434 1729 296 1.000 0.366 0.069 2.739 0.269 0.660 7 728370 1315 1698 384 1.000 0.615 1.080 3.991 0.290 0.823 8 728380 1395 1602 208 1.000 0.372 0.859 3.528 0.227 0.729 9 728390 1292 1666 375 0.977 0.656 1.507 5.160 0.276 0.869 10 728400 1348 1632 285 1.000 0.494 0.911 3.718 0.218 0.847 11 728410 1267 1522 256 0.996 0.353 0.308 3.096 0.250 0.617 12 728420 1316 1525 210 0.997 0.364 0.206 2.518 0.236 0.727 13 728430 1242 1516 275 1.002 0.442 0.799 3.523 0.303 0.641 14 728440 1303 1501 199 0.996 0.344 0.258 3.065 0.234 0.677 15 728450 867 1452 586 0.999 0.646 1.128 3.811 0.248 0.869 16 728460 931 1312 382 0.987 0.467 1.344 7.031 0.324 0.658 17 728470 1077 1382 306 0.998 0.336 0.404 3.100 0.277 0.514 18 728480 1166 1356 191 1.001 0.298 0.279 3.152 0.235 0.523 19 728490 1140 1338 199 1.000 0.360 0.440 3.118 0.263 0.628 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 728500 1052 1318 267 1.000 0.563 1.662 6.955 0.281 0.792 21 728510 1170 1261 92 1.000 0.305 0.372 2.433 0.296 0.269 22 728520 1092 1297 206 1.006 0.295 0.400 3.040 0.225 0.523 23 728530 958 1227 270 1.005 0.341 1.033 5.394 0.255 0.539 24 728540 801 1211 411 0.998 0.376 0.135 2.741 0.219 0.752 25 728550 899 1176 278 0.998 0.466 0.934 3.664 0.254 0.776 26 728560 805 1147 343 0.999 0.456 0.390 2.991 0.306 0.677 27 728570 842 1110 269 1.000 0.372 0.409 3.367 0.277 0.614 28 728580 747 1090 344 1.000 0.321 0.330 3.076 0.277 0.426 29 728600 547 1036 490 1.000 0.443 0.740 3.705 0.353 0.561 30 728610 664 1040 377 1.000 0.455 0.779 3.730 0.257 0.752 31 728620 850 1019 170 1.000 0.335 0.344 2.689 0.284 0.436 32 728630 671 1025 355 1.000 0.311 0.116 3.825 0.274 0.472 33 728640 691 1015 325 1.000 0.289 0.589 3.277 0.228 0.491 34 728660 700 920 221 1.000 0.450 0.703 3.591 0.292 0.699 35 728670 668 984 317 1.000 0.457 1.246 7.308 0.284 0.735 36 728690 606 894 289 1.001 0.384 0.709 3.914 0.269 0.680 37 728710 626 814 189 1.000 0.361 1.001 4.734 0.239 0.611 38 728720 557 784 228 1.000 0.440 0.625 3.600 0.288 0.731 39 728730 591 748 158 1.001 0.298 0.013 2.837 0.313 0.217 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 728740 547 775 229 1.000 0.269 0.204 3.010 0.220 0.486 41 728750 547 720 174 0.993 0.301 -0.265 2.822 0.248 0.520 42 728760 448 703 256 1.003 0.398 1.332 5.867 0.332 0.364 43 728770 497 694 198 1.018 0.334 1.465 6.614 0.242 0.481 44 728780 517 647 131 1.000 0.334 0.332 2.681 0.256 0.591 45 728790 542 671 130 0.999 0.309 0.523 2.516 0.272 0.409 46 728800 452 638 187 0.999 0.385 -0.184 2.811 0.237 0.723 47 728810 441 592 152 1.000 0.232 0.337 3.946 0.197 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 277 1.000 0.401 0.653 3.887 0.265 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 107 0.008 0.111 0.518 1.637 0.033 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.372 0.544 3.446 0.263 0.641 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 135 0.001 0.128 0.598 0.869 0.045 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.977 0.232 -0.265 2.433 0.197 0.217 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.999 0.328 0.325 3.000 0.239 0.517 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 334 1.000 0.456 0.923 3.870 0.284 0.730 MAXIMUM VALUE 612 1.031 0.786 2.412 11.121 0.353 0.903 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 728310 -67 410 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 728320 -67 230 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 728330 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 728340 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 728350 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 728360 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 728370 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 728380 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 728390 -67 251 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 728400 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 728410 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 728420 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 728430 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 728440 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 728450 -67 392 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 728460 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 728470 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 728480 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 728490 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 728500 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 728510 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 728520 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 728530 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 728540 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 728550 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 728560 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 728570 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 728580 -67 230 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 728600 -67 328 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 728610 -67 252 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 728620 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 728630 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 728640 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 728660 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 728670 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 728690 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 728710 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 728720 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 728730 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 728740 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 41 728750 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 42 728760 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 43 728770 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 44 728780 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 45 728790 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 46 728800 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 47 728810 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 728310 1336 1947 612 0.990 0.376 0.639 4.100 0.240 0.709 2 728320 1446 1789 344 0.991 0.350 0.154 2.596 0.255 0.617 3 728330 1486 1789 304 0.975 0.427 0.788 4.584 0.313 0.659 4 728340 1353 1611 259 0.985 0.409 0.857 3.408 0.273 0.629 5 728350 1455 1734 280 0.997 0.290 0.259 3.174 0.246 0.434 6 728360 1434 1729 296 0.992 0.340 0.116 2.737 0.268 0.605 7 728370 1315 1698 384 0.988 0.521 1.468 6.979 0.290 0.762 8 728380 1395 1602 208 0.990 0.325 0.680 3.248 0.227 0.659 9 728390 1292 1666 375 0.980 0.511 1.617 8.409 0.276 0.777 10 728400 1348 1632 285 0.971 0.353 0.603 2.967 0.218 0.732 11 728410 1267 1522 256 0.993 0.311 0.563 3.546 0.250 0.476 12 728420 1316 1525 210 0.989 0.293 -0.076 2.798 0.236 0.545 13 728430 1242 1516 275 0.988 0.377 0.809 4.455 0.303 0.509 14 728440 1303 1501 199 0.994 0.295 0.208 3.563 0.234 0.540 15 728450 867 1452 586 0.957 0.405 0.668 3.471 0.248 0.733 16 728460 931 1312 382 0.997 0.451 1.109 5.491 0.324 0.599 17 728470 1077 1382 306 0.996 0.320 0.548 3.425 0.277 0.466 18 728480 1166 1356 191 0.999 0.295 0.256 3.114 0.235 0.518 19 728490 1140 1338 199 0.992 0.329 0.300 3.078 0.263 0.555 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 728500 1052 1318 267 0.990 0.514 1.488 6.063 0.281 0.766 21 728510 1170 1261 92 0.999 0.300 0.362 2.375 0.296 0.253 22 728520 1092 1297 206 0.995 0.259 0.194 3.037 0.225 0.403 23 728530 958 1227 270 0.995 0.313 0.854 4.788 0.255 0.464 24 728540 801 1211 411 0.996 0.331 0.367 3.344 0.219 0.667 25 728550 899 1176 278 0.993 0.349 0.426 3.080 0.253 0.621 26 728560 805 1147 343 0.988 0.435 0.620 3.358 0.306 0.646 27 728570 842 1110 269 0.996 0.353 0.348 3.338 0.277 0.567 28 728580 747 1090 344 0.999 0.312 0.301 3.016 0.277 0.385 29 728600 547 1036 490 0.992 0.401 0.506 2.968 0.353 0.477 30 728610 664 1040 377 0.981 0.383 0.636 3.815 0.257 0.667 31 728620 850 1019 170 0.996 0.316 0.231 2.561 0.284 0.377 32 728630 671 1025 355 0.998 0.299 0.007 3.475 0.274 0.434 33 728640 691 1015 325 0.997 0.273 0.467 3.108 0.228 0.447 34 728660 700 920 221 0.986 0.392 0.513 3.136 0.292 0.623 35 728670 668 984 317 0.991 0.429 1.108 6.353 0.284 0.707 36 728690 606 894 289 0.996 0.359 0.747 4.255 0.269 0.635 37 728710 626 814 189 0.993 0.307 0.598 3.802 0.238 0.476 38 728720 557 784 228 0.986 0.402 0.632 3.701 0.289 0.688 39 728730 591 748 158 0.998 0.287 -0.088 2.815 0.313 0.156 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 728740 547 775 229 0.998 0.261 0.139 2.942 0.220 0.448 41 728750 547 720 174 0.991 0.249 -0.387 3.684 0.247 0.257 42 728760 448 703 256 0.995 0.374 1.454 6.986 0.332 0.291 43 728770 497 694 198 0.995 0.262 0.749 3.983 0.242 0.290 44 728780 517 647 131 0.992 0.279 0.069 2.838 0.255 0.423 45 728790 542 671 130 0.998 0.294 0.533 2.648 0.271 0.351 46 728800 452 638 187 0.983 0.328 -0.192 2.891 0.237 0.610 47 728810 441 592 152 0.997 0.212 0.228 3.708 0.197 0.328 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 277 0.991 0.346 0.521 3.771 0.265 0.532 STANDARD DEVIATION 107 0.008 0.070 0.439 1.296 0.033 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 269 0.993 0.329 0.513 3.358 0.263 0.545 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 135 0.007 0.092 0.484 0.907 0.045 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.957 0.212 -0.387 2.375 0.197 0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 0.989 0.295 0.229 2.992 0.239 0.434 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 334 0.996 0.388 0.713 3.899 0.284 0.652 MAXIMUM VALUE 612 0.999 0.521 1.617 8.409 0.353 0.777 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 401 0.384 0.166 0.008 -0.583 3.387 -0.183 0.789 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.183 SERIES 728380 AND 728450 58 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.789 SERIES 728460 AND 728670 54 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 37.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 3.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| 51 RUNNING RBAR SEGMENTS CALCULATED AND STORED IN FILE |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 441 1947 1507 0.976 0.248 0.137 2.996 0.206 0.509 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.278 0.145 0.088 334 1173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.64 1.00 1.12 2.75 110.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.11 0.00 0.82 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.508 0.410 0.424 0.369 0.313 0.273 0.226 0.184 0.138 0.092 PACF 0.508 0.204 0.218 0.085 0.033 0.008 -0.018 -0.022 -0.039 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.052 0.063 0.070 0.077 0.081 0.084 0.087 0.088 0.089 0.090 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.329 0.342 0.106 0.187 0.086 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.517 0.436 0.428 0.379 0.307 0.249 0.192 0.156 0.106 0.061 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.517 2 0.398 0.230 3 0.353 0.153 0.194 4 0.336 0.139 0.162 0.091 5 0.335 0.139 0.162 0.089 0.003 6 0.335 0.141 0.166 0.093 0.011 -0.024 7 0.334 0.141 0.170 0.100 0.018 -0.009 -0.045 8 0.333 0.141 0.170 0.102 0.021 -0.006 -0.038 -0.021 9 0.333 0.140 0.170 0.103 0.025 0.000 -0.032 -0.008 -0.038 10 0.331 0.139 0.169 0.103 0.026 0.004 -0.026 -0.003 -0.025 -0.038 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 13460.30 12993.28 12913.12 12857.05 12846.62 12848.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 12849.73 12848.71 12850.05 12849.86 12849.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.336 0.139 0.162 0.091 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 33.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 151.06 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.336 0.252 0.294 0.279 0.206 0.178 0.160 0.137 0.116 0.1002 0.087 0.074 0.064 0.055 0.047 0.041 0.035 0.030 0.026 0.0222 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.0049 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0011 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 728310 4 0.536 0.548 0.067 0.113 0.089 2 728320 4 0.458 0.414 0.087 0.255 0.034 3 728330 4 0.495 0.469 0.103 0.215 0.011 4 728340 4 0.455 0.428 0.191 0.186 -0.044 5 728350 4 0.280 0.368 0.068 0.307 -0.152 6 728360 4 0.433 0.469 0.031 0.254 0.003 7 728370 4 0.617 0.547 0.159 0.137 0.004 8 728380 4 0.480 0.474 0.213 0.103 -0.023 9 728390 4 0.622 0.635 0.120 0.146 -0.080 10 728400 4 0.567 0.545 0.170 0.093 0.007 11 728410 4 0.236 0.441 0.067 -0.022 0.066 12 728420 4 0.336 0.452 0.058 0.127 0.039 13 728430 4 0.321 0.348 0.248 0.071 0.006 14 728440 4 0.308 0.522 0.052 -0.004 -0.024 15 728450 4 0.606 0.430 0.245 0.132 0.051 16 728460 4 0.408 0.448 0.228 0.112 -0.100 17 728470 4 0.254 0.373 0.086 0.147 0.015 18 728480 4 0.297 0.548 -0.051 0.094 -0.064 19 728490 4 0.351 0.432 0.139 0.091 0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 728500 4 0.604 0.642 0.199 0.044 -0.106 21 728510 4 0.125 0.243 -0.006 -0.044 -0.192 22 728520 4 0.265 0.283 0.340 0.082 -0.190 23 728530 4 0.310 0.282 0.150 0.174 0.106 24 728540 4 0.498 0.477 0.084 0.135 0.115 25 728550 4 0.421 0.485 0.105 0.066 0.095 26 728560 4 0.461 0.490 0.139 0.004 0.146 27 728570 4 0.352 0.471 0.086 0.112 0.014 28 728580 4 0.191 0.334 -0.007 0.150 0.101 29 728600 4 0.316 0.295 0.118 0.204 0.106 30 728610 4 0.489 0.490 0.148 0.083 0.068 31 728620 4 0.170 0.314 0.078 0.090 0.055 32 728630 4 0.231 0.347 0.097 0.099 0.059 33 728640 4 0.264 0.312 0.109 0.154 0.096 34 728660 4 0.496 0.348 0.339 0.142 -0.040 35 728670 4 0.538 0.533 0.111 0.112 0.053 36 728690 4 0.438 0.510 0.183 0.107 -0.110 37 728710 4 0.284 0.359 0.197 -0.021 0.123 38 728720 4 0.515 0.527 0.076 0.192 -0.001 39 728730 4 0.031 0.147 0.049 0.000 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 40 728740 4 0.283 0.313 0.276 0.015 0.031 41 728750 4 0.105 0.206 0.148 0.023 0.076 42 728760 4 0.111 0.263 0.043 0.012 0.145 43 728770 4 0.132 0.210 0.129 0.110 0.080 44 728780 4 0.198 0.390 0.047 -0.010 0.117 45 728790 4 0.149 0.381 -0.101 0.019 0.126 46 728800 4 0.408 0.513 0.045 0.058 0.118 47 728810 4 0.122 0.307 0.042 0.009 0.069 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.352 0.412 0.117 0.099 0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.158 0.113 0.090 0.079 0.085 MEDIAN 4 0.336 0.430 0.105 0.103 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.240 0.166 0.102 0.110 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.031 0.147 -0.101 -0.044 -0.192 LOWER HINGE 4 0.245 0.324 0.062 0.033 -0.012 UPPER HINGE 4 0.484 0.490 0.165 0.144 0.092 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.622 0.642 0.340 0.307 0.146 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 728310 1336 1947 612 1.000 0.257 0.678 5.975 0.286 -0.006 2 728320 1446 1789 344 1.000 0.258 0.118 3.216 0.294 -0.003 3 728330 1486 1789 304 1.000 0.303 0.238 3.646 0.339 -0.001 4 728340 1353 1611 259 1.000 0.302 0.679 4.470 0.318 0.002 5 728350 1455 1734 280 1.000 0.246 0.194 3.360 0.270 0.007 6 728360 1434 1729 296 1.000 0.257 0.040 3.005 0.299 0.001 7 728370 1315 1698 384 1.000 0.322 0.775 5.589 0.352 0.002 8 728380 1395 1602 208 1.000 0.234 0.169 2.913 0.269 0.001 9 728390 1292 1666 375 1.000 0.314 0.716 5.933 0.339 -0.001 10 728400 1348 1632 285 1.000 0.232 0.461 3.456 0.261 -0.001 11 728410 1267 1522 256 1.000 0.272 0.423 3.819 0.300 0.001 12 728420 1316 1525 210 1.000 0.240 0.220 2.839 0.270 -0.004 13 728430 1242 1516 275 1.000 0.311 0.493 3.874 0.341 0.000 14 728440 1303 1501 199 1.000 0.247 0.302 3.262 0.277 0.000 15 728450 867 1452 586 1.000 0.255 0.240 3.678 0.280 -0.004 16 728460 931 1312 382 1.000 0.347 0.576 4.181 0.372 0.009 17 728470 1077 1382 306 1.000 0.276 0.325 2.891 0.318 -0.002 18 728480 1166 1356 191 1.000 0.248 0.258 3.190 0.282 0.004 19 728490 1140 1338 199 1.000 0.264 0.055 2.905 0.306 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 728500 1052 1318 267 1.000 0.324 0.751 5.562 0.353 0.000 21 728510 1170 1261 92 1.000 0.283 0.510 3.119 0.314 -0.020 22 728520 1092 1297 206 1.000 0.222 0.002 3.381 0.248 0.006 23 728530 958 1227 270 1.000 0.262 0.323 3.273 0.286 -0.010 24 728540 801 1211 411 1.000 0.235 0.632 4.095 0.254 0.009 25 728550 899 1176 278 1.000 0.265 0.412 3.076 0.298 -0.006 26 728560 805 1147 343 1.000 0.320 0.588 3.976 0.349 -0.011 27 728570 842 1110 269 1.000 0.284 0.122 3.365 0.321 0.002 28 728580 747 1090 344 1.000 0.281 0.342 3.295 0.307 0.005 29 728600 547 1036 490 1.000 0.332 0.237 3.180 0.385 0.003 30 728610 664 1040 377 1.000 0.273 0.108 3.925 0.309 0.002 31 728620 850 1019 170 1.000 0.288 -0.083 3.000 0.329 0.001 32 728630 671 1025 355 1.000 0.263 -0.114 3.621 0.311 -0.008 33 728640 691 1015 325 1.000 0.234 0.271 3.148 0.263 -0.002 34 728660 700 920 221 1.000 0.280 0.341 2.883 0.317 0.007 35 728670 668 984 317 1.000 0.294 0.362 4.450 0.337 0.006 36 728690 606 894 289 1.000 0.270 0.335 3.557 0.316 -0.008 37 728710 626 814 189 1.000 0.259 0.251 4.351 0.281 0.000 38 728720 557 784 228 1.000 0.281 0.177 3.122 0.326 -0.002 39 728730 591 748 158 1.000 0.282 -0.134 2.950 0.337 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 728740 547 775 229 1.000 0.221 0.111 2.724 0.253 -0.002 41 728750 547 720 174 1.000 0.235 -0.733 4.605 0.267 0.002 42 728760 448 703 256 1.000 0.352 1.273 6.620 0.373 -0.003 43 728770 497 694 198 1.000 0.245 0.467 3.443 0.265 -0.002 44 728780 517 647 131 1.000 0.250 -0.110 2.918 0.296 -0.005 45 728790 542 671 130 1.000 0.271 0.469 2.698 0.312 0.001 46 728800 452 638 187 1.000 0.254 -0.060 3.165 0.291 -0.013 47 728810 441 592 152 1.000 0.200 -0.119 3.434 0.230 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 277 1.000 0.271 0.291 3.684 0.304 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 107 0.000 0.034 0.322 0.928 0.036 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 269 1.000 0.265 0.271 3.365 0.306 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 135 0.000 0.038 0.353 0.853 0.049 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.200 -0.733 2.698 0.230 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.248 0.114 3.097 0.279 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 334 1.000 0.286 0.468 3.951 0.328 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 612 1.000 0.352 1.273 6.620 0.385 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 401 0.424 0.126 0.006 -0.686 5.065 -0.121 0.831 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.121 SERIES 728390 AND 728460 21 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.831 SERIES 728670 AND 728760 36 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 37.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 3.71 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| 51 RUNNING RBAR SEGMENTS CALCULATED AND STORED IN FILE |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 441 1947 1507 0.994 0.197 -0.045 3.290 0.233 -0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.171 0.082 0.088 320 1187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.13 1.00 1.12 2.25 51.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.072 -0.046 0.034 0.019 0.032 0.011 0.022 0.011 -0.002 -0.026 PACF -0.072 -0.051 0.027 0.022 0.038 0.017 0.027 0.013 0.000 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.009 -0.076 -0.051 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.003 0.040 0.017 0.026 0.011 -0.003 -0.029 PACF -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.003 0.040 0.017 0.026 0.011 -0.003 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 0.052 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 441 1947 1507 0.993 0.243 0.140 2.963 0.196 0.528 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.527 0.448 0.440 0.394 0.335 0.280 0.244 0.197 0.150 0.105 PACF 0.527 0.236 0.198 0.095 0.026 -0.014 -0.009 -0.028 -0.036 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.052 0.064 0.072 0.079 0.084 0.087 0.090 0.092 0.093 0.093 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.351 0.337 0.141 0.164 0.096 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.32 MINUTES