RUN: swed002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWED022E.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWED022E.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 842 1 Gotland WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 842 2 Sweeden Scots pine, Scotch pine 50 5630-1500 1127 1987 - 842 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 842001 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1178 1178 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 842003 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1166 1166 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 842004 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1230 1230 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 842005 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1178 1178 / 1244 1244 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 842012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1253 1253 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 842026 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1474 1474 / 1628 1628 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 842027 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1562 1562 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 842029 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1493 1493 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 842030 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1535 1535 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 842031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1640 1640 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 842040 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 2 GAPS / 1551 1555 / 1633 1645 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 43 842047 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1639 1639 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 842050 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1625 1629 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 842001 1127 1203 77 1.104 0.521 1.381 4.019 0.197 0.789 2 842002 1127 1206 80 0.872 0.267 1.381 8.279 0.185 0.475 3 842003 1132 1250 119 0.533 0.364 1.526 5.415 0.218 0.887 4 842004 1148 1339 192 0.593 0.485 2.800 12.137 0.234 0.848 5 842005 1146 1338 193 0.449 0.319 2.051 7.043 0.281 0.836 6 842006 1153 1298 146 0.612 0.554 1.318 3.940 0.353 0.870 7 842007 1153 1339 187 0.638 0.582 2.479 8.720 0.223 0.887 8 842008 1154 1284 131 0.774 0.547 2.202 8.142 0.219 0.846 9 842009 1164 1244 81 0.843 0.540 2.313 8.921 0.249 0.716 10 842011 1181 1295 115 0.559 0.323 0.818 2.914 0.300 0.814 11 842012 1198 1338 141 0.593 0.288 1.598 5.959 0.239 0.792 12 842013 1281 1396 116 0.795 0.432 1.289 4.653 0.193 0.877 13 842014 1290 1389 100 0.513 0.164 0.403 3.641 0.281 0.451 14 842015 1310 1428 119 0.499 0.362 1.929 7.119 0.270 0.839 15 842016 1322 1457 136 0.471 0.365 3.811 19.992 0.261 0.829 16 842017 1323 1427 105 0.782 0.441 1.820 7.730 0.222 0.798 17 842018 1323 1427 105 0.546 0.287 1.144 4.937 0.253 0.760 18 842019 1330 1429 100 0.643 0.408 2.050 7.476 0.249 0.802 19 842020 1342 1543 202 0.463 0.482 1.635 5.152 0.274 0.872 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 842021 1358 1467 110 0.873 0.629 1.645 4.493 0.195 0.915 21 842022 1389 1555 167 0.447 0.271 1.012 3.368 0.334 0.744 22 842023 1413 1537 125 0.283 0.141 1.551 5.619 0.353 0.607 23 842024 1425 1535 111 0.369 0.121 0.728 2.954 0.247 0.612 24 842025 1431 1501 71 0.923 0.718 2.031 6.090 0.226 0.884 25 842026 1447 1671 225 0.353 0.303 2.846 12.613 0.346 0.842 26 842027 1446 1598 153 0.456 0.231 0.702 3.158 0.260 0.752 27 842028 1447 1535 89 0.417 0.174 1.072 3.355 0.285 0.678 28 842029 1454 1595 142 0.561 0.440 1.752 5.435 0.303 0.816 29 842030 1463 1559 97 0.537 0.248 0.698 3.193 0.282 0.714 30 842031 1467 1667 201 0.424 0.252 1.403 6.064 0.307 0.812 31 842032 1483 1576 94 0.818 0.569 1.543 5.775 0.255 0.732 32 842033 1487 1597 111 0.877 0.613 1.972 6.847 0.207 0.825 33 842034 1508 1624 117 0.743 0.663 2.724 11.951 0.234 0.858 34 842035 1508 1622 115 0.537 0.257 0.819 3.394 0.245 0.818 35 842036 1512 1665 154 0.523 0.182 0.853 3.574 0.229 0.699 36 842037 1506 1688 183 0.411 0.193 0.536 2.541 0.271 0.738 37 842038 1504 1695 192 0.504 0.242 0.543 2.727 0.303 0.747 38 842040 1532 1723 192 0.520 0.252 0.459 2.739 0.297 0.737 39 842042 1551 1650 100 0.798 0.568 2.166 8.828 0.277 0.794 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 842043 1554 1665 112 0.478 0.311 1.759 5.786 0.301 0.865 41 842044 1561 1702 142 0.516 0.516 1.895 6.424 0.341 0.857 42 842046 1578 1657 80 0.519 0.398 1.471 4.453 0.312 0.824 43 842047 1579 1753 175 0.485 0.443 2.413 8.098 0.332 0.862 44 842048 1654 1719 66 0.595 0.214 0.201 2.943 0.297 0.472 45 842049 1593 1754 162 0.452 0.533 3.043 12.469 0.281 0.909 46 842050 1593 1778 186 0.460 0.257 1.228 4.363 0.360 0.645 47 842051 1611 1703 93 0.587 0.464 2.066 6.963 0.303 0.814 48 842052 1651 1778 128 0.488 0.256 2.149 10.639 0.341 0.377 49 842053 1651 1793 143 0.556 0.380 1.002 2.979 0.225 0.859 50 842054 1658 1793 136 0.524 0.308 1.537 5.650 0.190 0.862 51 842055 1658 1746 89 0.925 0.364 1.493 5.980 0.274 0.531 52 842056 1664 1792 129 0.619 0.266 1.521 5.808 0.214 0.705 53 842057 1672 1792 121 0.625 0.233 1.277 5.769 0.226 0.616 54 842058 1673 1791 119 0.655 0.419 2.229 7.742 0.223 0.821 55 842059 1684 1792 109 0.594 0.308 1.120 4.211 0.375 0.599 56 842060 1678 1781 104 0.887 0.495 2.141 6.673 0.178 0.879 57 842061 1684 1782 99 0.742 0.464 1.074 3.687 0.405 0.723 58 842062 1694 1832 139 0.460 0.337 1.547 6.415 0.294 0.781 59 842063 1706 1853 148 0.686 0.522 2.156 8.380 0.228 0.855 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 60 842064 1709 1879 171 0.594 0.357 1.911 7.837 0.270 0.792 61 842065 1729 1879 151 0.494 0.366 1.930 6.536 0.277 0.873 62 842068 1593 1710 118 0.684 0.352 1.931 7.456 0.221 0.776 63 842069 1598 1708 111 0.999 1.126 2.279 7.303 0.316 0.861 64 842070 1601 1677 77 1.074 0.515 0.764 3.246 0.312 0.642 65 842071 1625 1708 84 0.685 0.522 2.220 8.351 0.262 0.752 66 842072 1719 1815 97 1.036 0.622 0.951 3.007 0.191 0.908 67 842073 1715 1829 115 0.707 0.477 2.013 7.903 0.250 0.794 68 842074 1722 1838 117 0.615 0.634 2.634 10.212 0.222 0.832 69 842077 1145 1210 66 0.928 0.546 1.666 4.906 0.228 0.809 70 842081 1156 1197 42 1.378 1.109 1.361 3.551 0.321 0.851 71 842083 1260 1340 81 0.673 0.277 0.561 2.990 0.289 0.574 72 842084 1275 1340 66 0.621 0.356 1.473 6.223 0.334 0.594 73 842085 1270 1338 69 0.693 0.275 1.192 3.786 0.250 0.647 74 842086 1250 1328 79 0.624 0.391 0.554 2.885 0.401 0.728 75 842087 1275 1340 66 0.652 0.426 2.057 7.334 0.349 0.685 76 842088 1247 1305 59 0.680 0.249 -0.285 2.998 0.372 0.286 77 842900 1740 1986 247 0.325 0.209 2.040 8.742 0.312 0.777 78 842910 1755 1987 233 0.340 0.165 1.388 5.426 0.264 0.727 79 842920 1786 1987 202 0.403 0.178 0.777 3.692 0.269 0.725 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 80 842930 1785 1986 202 0.305 0.157 0.858 3.465 0.383 0.539 81 842940 1879 1986 108 0.431 0.175 1.293 5.168 0.293 0.546 82 842950 1783 1986 204 0.418 0.187 1.476 6.498 0.282 0.655 83 842960 1790 1986 197 0.594 0.443 1.324 4.030 0.245 0.885 84 842970 1777 1987 211 0.428 0.235 1.470 5.621 0.241 0.807 85 842980 1751 1986 236 0.325 0.163 1.811 7.911 0.294 0.693 86 842990 1792 1987 196 0.480 0.173 0.662 3.031 0.262 0.486 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 86 FROM 1127 TO 1987 861 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.613 0.383 1.542 6.005 0.274 0.749 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.202 0.185 0.701 2.890 0.053 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 118 0.590 0.360 1.523 5.709 0.271 0.792 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.222 0.243 0.968 3.835 0.074 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.283 0.121 -0.285 2.541 0.178 0.286 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.471 0.252 1.072 3.641 0.229 0.693 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 167 0.693 0.495 2.040 7.476 0.303 0.848 MAXIMUM VALUE 247 1.378 1.126 3.811 19.992 0.405 0.915 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 954 0.351 0.303 0.010 -0.402 2.420 -0.590 0.930 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.590 SERIES 842037 AND 842046 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.930 SERIES 842065 AND 842072 87 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 26.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 2.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1152. 1180. 1205. 1230. 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. CORR 1. 28. 21. 21. 21. 15. 28. 1. 21. 15. RBAR 0.027 0.599 0.261 0.499 0.118 0.279 0.412 0.392 0.319 0.604 SDEV 0.000 0.186 0.379 0.178 0.166 0.214 0.190 0.190 0.188 0.090 SERR 0.000 0.035 0.083 0.039 0.036 0.055 0.036 0.000 0.041 0.023 EPS 0.158 0.944 0.789 0.901 0.567 0.822 0.901 0.883 0.821 0.931 NSS 6.8 11.3 10.6 9.1 9.8 11.9 12.9 11.7 9.8 8.8 YEAR 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. CORR 6. 6. 6. 28. 45. 36. 45. 45. 55. 105. RBAR 0.709 -0.015 0.294 0.220 0.263 0.390 0.269 0.129 0.175 0.260 SDEV 0.132 0.374 0.246 0.222 0.236 0.252 0.242 0.364 0.441 0.236 SERR 0.054 0.153 0.100 0.042 0.035 0.042 0.036 0.054 0.059 0.023 EPS 0.955 -0.136 0.797 0.768 0.838 0.911 0.849 0.703 0.790 0.866 NSS 8.7 8.3 9.4 11.7 14.5 16.0 15.2 16.0 17.7 18.3 YEAR 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. CORR 55. 45. 55. 66. 105. 45. 45. 55. 55. 36. RBAR 0.339 0.210 0.311 0.167 0.381 0.452 0.308 0.360 0.354 0.671 SDEV 0.442 0.272 0.310 0.225 0.292 0.255 0.244 0.224 0.284 0.110 SERR 0.060 0.041 0.042 0.028 0.029 0.038 0.036 0.030 0.038 0.018 EPS 0.908 0.845 0.900 0.798 0.926 0.940 0.881 0.887 0.865 0.955 NSS 19.2 20.6 20.1 19.8 20.2 19.0 16.7 13.9 11.7 10.5 YEAR 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.481 0.365 0.392 SDEV 0.153 0.180 0.162 SERR 0.023 0.027 0.024 EPS 0.903 0.852 0.866 NSS 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1127 1987 861 0.512 0.242 2.478 11.818 0.180 0.868 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.764 0.453 0.027 439 422 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.08 2.74 1.00 1.29 4.03 97.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.56 0.84 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 118. 70. 42. 97. 167. 247. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.867 0.796 0.742 0.691 0.672 0.667 0.644 0.625 0.630 0.629 PACF 0.867 0.178 0.084 0.029 0.125 0.126 0.001 0.022 0.132 0.069 95% C.L. 0.068 0.108 0.132 0.150 0.165 0.177 0.188 0.198 0.207 0.216 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.798 0.634 0.125 0.065 -0.034 0.038 0.112 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 842001 1 1.94457567 0.07815601 0.00000000 0.78904903 2 842002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00593753 1.11284494 3 842003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00870476 1.05804777 4 842004 1 2.23329163 0.05496078 0.00000000 0.38494307 5 842005 1 1.38197839 0.05640251 0.00000000 0.32387164 6 842006 1 2.00351834 0.02460334 0.00000000 0.07618454 7 842007 1 2.59062839 0.04440755 0.00000000 0.33253926 8 842008 1 2.97187209 0.12321119 0.00000000 0.60080659 9 842009 1 2.00294900 0.07896987 0.00000000 0.54290712 10 842011 1 0.99909222 0.01462519 0.00000000 0.07923890 11 842012 1 1.05002892 0.04411444 0.00000000 0.42817289 12 842013 1 1.47435188 0.02417305 0.00000000 0.30727512 13 842014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00198566 0.61357576 14 842015 1 1.27761686 0.04637494 0.00000000 0.27380404 15 842016 1 2.76259041 0.22306111 0.00000000 0.39018482 16 842017 1 1.39278793 0.04063313 0.00000000 0.46710986 17 842018 1 0.99359077 0.02133823 0.00000000 0.15393378 18 842019 1 1.76593912 0.08596708 0.00000000 0.44622147 19 842020 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 842021 1 2.34252071 0.04074964 0.00000000 0.36668798 21 842022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265596 0.67052591 22 842023 1 0.66126746 0.13318892 0.00000000 0.24574760 23 842024 1 0.05698367 0.01796837 0.00000000 0.34499797 24 842025 1 3.16406727 0.10238798 0.00000000 0.51018381 25 842026 1 1.39685202 0.05491146 0.00000000 0.24309370 26 842027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00343958 0.72017300 27 842028 1 0.51918811 0.16133583 0.00000000 0.38330987 28 842029 1 1.47287118 0.03258825 0.00000000 0.24896170 29 842030 1 0.58224857 0.07253118 0.00000000 0.45503080 30 842031 1 0.87856185 0.04113701 0.00000000 0.31958866 31 842032 1 1.91312170 0.02718989 0.00000000 0.13660151 32 842033 1 2.39840674 0.04901526 0.00000000 0.44905901 33 842034 1 2.95229936 0.07061405 0.00000000 0.39787027 34 842035 1 0.74387181 0.04184021 0.00000000 0.38697815 35 842036 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048552 0.56080979 36 842037 1 0.49179369 0.04111063 0.00000000 0.34731224 37 842038 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234389 0.72988331 38 842040 1 0.05381145 0.02235679 0.00000000 0.47662851 39 842042 1 1.91080248 0.04308832 0.00000000 0.37026957 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 842043 1 1.19718838 0.06399530 0.00000000 0.31650913 41 842044 1 1.92312241 0.03207194 0.00000000 0.10525553 42 842046 1 1.48443007 0.05196508 0.00000000 0.17694929 43 842047 1 1.94552433 0.05331526 0.00000000 0.28057873 44 842048 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00269617 0.50452679 45 842049 1 2.86147666 0.07647391 0.00000000 0.22972792 46 842050 1 0.64269924 0.02930702 0.00000000 0.33884236 47 842051 1 2.07075596 0.09394394 0.00000000 0.36064848 48 842052 1 1.12574124 0.16425978 0.00000000 0.43862569 49 842053 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00780841 1.11786962 50 842054 1 1.11590683 0.03612256 0.00000000 0.30224571 51 842055 1 1.21853030 0.00979522 0.00000000 0.11540996 52 842056 1 0.83445323 0.03161078 0.00000000 0.42122716 53 842057 1 0.73002523 0.05083912 0.00000000 0.50919414 54 842058 1 1.78904355 0.07432508 0.00000000 0.46005523 55 842059 1 0.87537009 0.01927957 0.00000000 0.23167133 56 842060 1 1.99147546 0.06777873 0.00000000 0.61439955 57 842061 1 1.60568285 0.01928498 0.00000000 0.03285116 58 842062 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 59 842063 1 2.08286095 0.04359842 0.00000000 0.37097147 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 60 842064 1 1.46516907 0.05291120 0.00000000 0.43666211 61 842065 1 1.59292173 0.05246239 0.00000000 0.29772919 62 842068 1 1.21700227 0.04364695 0.00000000 0.45424202 63 842069 1 4.85579205 0.06326571 0.00000000 0.32934609 64 842070 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01779825 1.76789808 65 842071 1 2.09932923 0.08302883 0.00000000 0.39611641 66 842072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01975542 2.00368547 67 842073 1 1.74317241 0.04916668 0.00000000 0.40775609 68 842074 1 2.86932492 0.06856129 0.00000000 0.26907372 69 842077 1 2.11827850 0.07104452 0.00000000 0.49583867 70 842081 1 3.97863770 0.06834006 0.00000000 0.11446636 71 842083 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443473 0.85441667 72 842084 1 0.96025556 0.05737453 0.00000000 0.38042524 73 842085 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00271538 0.78822678 74 842086 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01415092 1.19021416 75 842087 1 1.70970666 0.12242829 0.00000000 0.45282766 76 842088 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00479018 0.82387495 77 842900 1 0.95204526 0.05539794 0.00000000 0.25751448 78 842910 1 0.57992280 0.06438762 0.00000000 0.30214697 79 842920 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120320 0.52549136 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 80 842930 1 0.39067388 0.10247023 0.00000000 0.28658158 81 842940 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183300 0.53091729 82 842950 1 0.51466495 0.00784861 0.00000000 0.16288926 83 842960 1 1.57295787 0.01666794 0.00000000 0.13673879 84 842970 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229027 0.67030466 85 842980 1 0.92846406 0.13573720 0.00000000 0.29747298 86 842990 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134353 0.61192936 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 842001 1127 1203 77 1.000 0.263 0.654 3.602 0.199 0.513 2 842002 1127 1206 80 0.998 0.261 1.844 9.351 0.183 0.351 3 842003 1132 1250 119 1.179 1.025 7.198 59.620 0.225 0.478 4 842004 1148 1339 192 0.998 0.380 0.462 2.928 0.233 0.709 5 842005 1146 1338 193 1.001 0.423 0.639 4.208 0.287 0.674 6 842006 1153 1298 146 1.035 0.514 1.687 8.458 0.351 0.638 7 842007 1153 1339 187 1.001 0.286 0.154 2.599 0.222 0.561 8 842008 1154 1284 131 1.001 0.443 0.883 3.150 0.216 0.798 9 842009 1164 1244 81 1.000 0.332 0.238 2.882 0.247 0.574 10 842011 1181 1295 115 1.006 0.410 0.164 2.655 0.298 0.700 11 842012 1198 1338 141 1.000 0.274 0.233 3.055 0.242 0.398 12 842013 1281 1396 116 0.997 0.270 0.553 2.851 0.191 0.612 13 842014 1290 1389 100 0.999 0.293 0.082 3.136 0.278 0.368 14 842015 1310 1428 119 1.000 0.405 0.637 4.598 0.270 0.655 15 842016 1322 1457 136 1.002 0.413 0.074 2.793 0.260 0.745 16 842017 1323 1427 105 0.998 0.340 0.387 3.134 0.220 0.655 17 842018 1323 1427 105 0.999 0.303 -0.052 4.134 0.252 0.458 18 842019 1330 1429 100 1.001 0.346 0.384 3.068 0.246 0.617 19 842020 1342 1543 202 1.002 0.347 0.720 3.387 0.273 0.509 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 842021 1358 1467 110 1.007 0.242 -0.029 2.961 0.193 0.523 21 842022 1389 1555 167 0.996 0.493 0.764 3.394 0.332 0.694 22 842023 1413 1537 125 1.000 0.368 0.721 4.495 0.347 0.276 23 842024 1425 1535 111 1.000 0.328 0.790 3.159 0.245 0.600 24 842025 1431 1501 71 1.000 0.321 -0.022 3.556 0.219 0.685 25 842026 1447 1671 225 1.002 0.467 0.973 4.733 0.346 0.602 26 842027 1446 1598 153 0.990 0.359 0.731 3.542 0.267 0.569 27 842028 1447 1535 89 1.000 0.387 1.496 5.026 0.280 0.628 28 842029 1454 1595 142 1.004 0.387 0.208 2.535 0.303 0.580 29 842030 1463 1559 97 1.000 0.407 0.565 3.728 0.280 0.681 30 842031 1467 1667 201 1.001 0.432 0.267 3.169 0.310 0.691 31 842032 1483 1576 94 1.000 0.316 0.339 2.787 0.251 0.443 32 842033 1487 1597 111 0.998 0.240 0.270 2.759 0.204 0.460 33 842034 1508 1624 117 0.990 0.376 0.474 3.301 0.230 0.695 34 842035 1508 1622 115 1.000 0.370 0.774 4.667 0.243 0.677 35 842036 1512 1665 154 1.000 0.348 0.955 3.832 0.228 0.694 36 842037 1506 1688 183 0.999 0.413 0.449 2.661 0.270 0.688 37 842038 1504 1695 192 0.998 0.416 0.631 3.435 0.301 0.638 38 842040 1532 1723 192 1.000 0.546 0.449 2.741 0.291 0.788 39 842042 1551 1650 100 0.999 0.347 0.700 3.434 0.274 0.523 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 842043 1554 1665 112 1.001 0.374 0.318 3.271 0.299 0.530 41 842044 1561 1702 142 0.992 0.371 0.887 4.303 0.337 0.398 42 842046 1578 1657 80 1.003 0.346 0.608 4.957 0.303 0.369 43 842047 1579 1753 175 1.005 0.402 0.492 3.116 0.330 0.510 44 842048 1654 1719 66 0.999 0.360 0.405 3.046 0.292 0.453 45 842049 1593 1754 162 0.994 0.462 0.704 3.156 0.278 0.715 46 842050 1593 1778 186 1.000 0.433 0.486 3.300 0.360 0.527 47 842051 1611 1703 93 1.000 0.410 0.536 3.166 0.301 0.592 48 842052 1651 1778 128 1.000 0.403 0.512 3.015 0.338 0.421 49 842053 1651 1793 143 2.867 15.997 11.901135.722 0.240 0.163 50 842054 1658 1793 136 0.999 0.307 -0.004 2.540 0.188 0.711 51 842055 1658 1746 89 1.000 0.300 0.668 3.557 0.271 0.400 52 842056 1664 1792 129 1.000 0.247 -0.144 2.706 0.213 0.449 53 842057 1672 1792 121 1.000 0.266 0.404 3.594 0.224 0.412 54 842058 1673 1791 119 1.000 0.318 0.853 4.262 0.221 0.646 55 842059 1684 1792 109 0.999 0.366 0.268 2.685 0.372 0.278 56 842060 1678 1781 104 1.001 0.233 0.717 3.373 0.174 0.545 57 842061 1684 1782 99 1.000 0.373 0.804 4.456 0.400 0.148 58 842062 1694 1832 139 1.002 0.356 0.968 3.787 0.292 0.431 59 842063 1706 1853 148 0.998 0.334 0.383 2.713 0.227 0.627 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 60 842064 1709 1879 171 0.999 0.367 0.460 2.835 0.268 0.535 61 842065 1729 1879 151 1.000 0.356 0.330 3.098 0.275 0.605 62 842068 1593 1710 118 0.999 0.261 0.744 3.667 0.219 0.502 63 842069 1598 1708 111 0.992 0.388 0.787 3.980 0.315 0.420 64 842070 1601 1677 77 1.007 0.301 0.141 3.532 0.308 0.269 65 842071 1625 1708 84 0.999 0.386 0.957 3.592 0.258 0.642 66 842072 1719 1815 97 1.153 0.666 3.054 12.711 0.193 0.782 67 842073 1715 1829 115 1.000 0.332 -0.059 2.769 0.248 0.591 68 842074 1722 1838 117 0.988 0.299 0.487 2.992 0.220 0.590 69 842077 1145 1210 66 1.000 0.218 0.930 4.713 0.218 0.046 70 842081 1156 1197 42 1.025 0.356 0.269 2.817 0.307 0.475 71 842083 1260 1340 81 0.999 0.368 0.175 2.895 0.286 0.536 72 842084 1275 1340 66 1.001 0.378 -0.262 3.527 0.332 0.443 73 842085 1270 1338 69 1.000 0.387 1.088 3.396 0.247 0.621 74 842086 1250 1328 79 1.072 0.580 1.509 5.784 0.391 0.622 75 842087 1275 1340 66 1.001 0.377 0.011 3.378 0.341 0.488 76 842088 1247 1305 59 1.000 0.357 -0.277 2.950 0.367 0.298 77 842900 1740 1986 247 1.001 0.448 1.035 4.982 0.310 0.604 78 842910 1755 1987 233 1.000 0.413 1.191 5.057 0.263 0.634 79 842920 1786 1987 202 0.997 0.403 0.827 4.022 0.268 0.631 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 80 842930 1785 1986 202 1.000 0.493 0.838 3.508 0.381 0.510 81 842940 1879 1986 108 0.998 0.378 1.354 5.597 0.290 0.489 82 842950 1783 1986 204 0.999 0.313 0.337 3.103 0.281 0.431 83 842960 1790 1986 197 1.000 0.295 0.496 3.701 0.244 0.459 84 842970 1777 1987 211 0.995 0.392 1.465 6.276 0.241 0.683 85 842980 1751 1986 236 1.000 0.400 0.798 3.141 0.292 0.578 86 842990 1792 1987 196 0.999 0.300 0.056 2.724 0.261 0.364 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.027 0.555 0.802 5.942 0.272 0.539 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.203 1.688 1.491 15.460 0.052 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.368 0.544 3.382 0.270 0.565 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.002 0.092 0.559 1.174 0.073 0.193 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.988 0.218 -0.277 2.535 0.174 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.999 0.316 0.269 2.961 0.230 0.449 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 167 1.001 0.407 0.827 4.134 0.303 0.642 MAXIMUM VALUE 247 2.867 15.997 11.901135.722 0.400 0.798 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 842001 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 842002 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 842003 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 842004 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 842005 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 842006 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 842007 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 842008 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 842009 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 842011 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 842012 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 842013 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 842014 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 842015 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 842016 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 842017 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 842018 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 842019 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 842020 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 842021 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 842022 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 842023 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 842024 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 842025 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 842026 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 842027 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 842028 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 842029 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 842030 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 842031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 842032 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 842033 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 842034 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 34 842035 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 35 842036 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 36 842037 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 37 842038 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 38 842040 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 39 842042 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 40 842043 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 41 842044 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 42 842046 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 43 842047 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 44 842048 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 45 842049 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 46 842050 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 47 842051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 48 842052 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 49 842053 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 2.86730003 50 842054 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 51 842055 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 52 842056 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 53 842057 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 54 842058 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 55 842059 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 56 842060 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 57 842061 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 58 842062 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 59 842063 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 60 842064 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 61 842065 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 62 842068 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 63 842069 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 64 842070 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 65 842071 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 66 842072 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 67 842073 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 68 842074 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 69 842077 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 70 842081 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 71 842083 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 72 842084 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 73 842085 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 74 842086 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 75 842087 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 76 842088 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 77 842900 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 78 842910 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 79 842920 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 80 842930 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 81 842940 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 82 842950 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 83 842960 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 84 842970 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 85 842980 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 86 842990 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 842001 1127 1203 77 0.998 0.242 0.430 3.425 0.199 0.432 2 842002 1127 1206 80 0.999 0.234 1.948 9.889 0.183 0.212 3 842003 1132 1250 119 0.999 0.348 2.512 15.441 0.222 0.431 4 842004 1148 1339 192 0.987 0.335 0.430 3.100 0.233 0.644 5 842005 1146 1338 193 0.990 0.377 0.455 3.285 0.287 0.611 6 842006 1153 1298 146 0.988 0.361 0.569 3.955 0.350 0.314 7 842007 1153 1339 187 0.999 0.282 0.168 2.588 0.222 0.552 8 842008 1154 1284 131 0.986 0.318 0.290 3.008 0.216 0.611 9 842009 1164 1244 81 0.998 0.310 0.754 4.304 0.245 0.486 10 842011 1181 1295 115 0.985 0.343 -0.131 2.627 0.297 0.578 11 842012 1198 1338 141 0.999 0.272 0.338 3.183 0.242 0.392 12 842013 1281 1396 116 0.997 0.237 0.403 2.929 0.191 0.490 13 842014 1290 1389 100 0.998 0.284 0.113 3.305 0.278 0.332 14 842015 1310 1428 119 0.995 0.368 0.376 3.861 0.271 0.589 15 842016 1322 1457 136 0.994 0.355 -0.181 2.904 0.260 0.681 16 842017 1323 1427 105 0.995 0.299 -0.017 2.685 0.220 0.563 17 842018 1323 1427 105 0.996 0.296 -0.054 4.025 0.252 0.424 18 842019 1330 1429 100 0.995 0.284 -0.127 2.623 0.246 0.453 19 842020 1342 1543 202 0.998 0.333 0.671 3.506 0.273 0.477 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 842021 1358 1467 110 0.998 0.220 0.152 4.235 0.192 0.407 21 842022 1389 1555 167 0.990 0.466 0.723 3.487 0.332 0.654 22 842023 1413 1537 125 0.999 0.361 0.662 3.881 0.347 0.265 23 842024 1425 1535 111 0.993 0.291 0.590 3.111 0.245 0.502 24 842025 1431 1501 71 0.991 0.263 -0.328 3.741 0.219 0.501 25 842026 1447 1671 225 0.997 0.385 0.343 2.799 0.346 0.417 26 842027 1446 1598 153 0.996 0.324 0.445 3.296 0.267 0.460 27 842028 1447 1535 89 0.989 0.293 0.836 3.649 0.280 0.354 28 842029 1454 1595 142 0.999 0.381 0.208 2.505 0.303 0.569 29 842030 1463 1559 97 0.998 0.399 0.512 3.735 0.280 0.672 30 842031 1467 1667 201 0.995 0.396 0.136 3.319 0.309 0.576 31 842032 1483 1576 94 0.996 0.294 0.198 2.610 0.251 0.386 32 842033 1487 1597 111 0.997 0.223 0.237 2.844 0.204 0.380 33 842034 1508 1624 117 0.998 0.261 0.735 4.434 0.232 0.335 34 842035 1508 1622 115 0.990 0.329 0.484 3.758 0.242 0.593 35 842036 1512 1665 154 0.993 0.293 0.738 3.572 0.228 0.585 36 842037 1506 1688 183 0.983 0.348 0.381 2.478 0.269 0.589 37 842038 1504 1695 192 0.995 0.402 0.732 3.970 0.301 0.605 38 842040 1532 1723 192 0.965 0.482 0.512 3.073 0.291 0.731 39 842042 1551 1650 100 0.996 0.324 0.594 2.980 0.274 0.468 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 842043 1554 1665 112 0.989 0.323 0.063 2.681 0.300 0.387 41 842044 1561 1702 142 0.998 0.358 0.764 3.760 0.337 0.340 42 842046 1578 1657 80 0.996 0.328 0.543 4.148 0.302 0.304 43 842047 1579 1753 175 0.995 0.377 0.601 3.170 0.330 0.418 44 842048 1654 1719 66 0.997 0.332 1.208 6.431 0.290 0.281 45 842049 1593 1754 162 0.987 0.370 0.554 2.945 0.278 0.559 46 842050 1593 1778 186 0.996 0.417 0.430 3.156 0.360 0.484 47 842051 1611 1703 93 0.993 0.347 0.424 4.382 0.300 0.475 48 842052 1651 1778 128 0.995 0.387 0.428 2.878 0.338 0.383 49 842053 1651 1793 143 1.000 5.579 11.901135.722 0.240 0.163 50 842054 1658 1793 136 0.995 0.289 0.241 2.946 0.188 0.673 51 842055 1658 1746 89 0.998 0.288 0.542 3.435 0.271 0.356 52 842056 1664 1792 129 0.998 0.232 -0.153 2.699 0.213 0.378 53 842057 1672 1792 121 0.997 0.228 0.205 3.605 0.223 0.247 54 842058 1673 1791 119 0.998 0.280 0.515 3.187 0.222 0.558 55 842059 1684 1792 109 0.999 0.362 0.292 2.730 0.372 0.269 56 842060 1678 1781 104 0.998 0.203 0.355 3.096 0.175 0.424 57 842061 1684 1782 99 0.999 0.369 0.864 4.941 0.400 0.120 58 842062 1694 1832 139 0.998 0.343 0.881 3.677 0.292 0.405 59 842063 1706 1853 148 0.997 0.312 0.417 2.925 0.226 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 60 842064 1709 1879 171 0.997 0.340 0.345 2.719 0.268 0.473 61 842065 1729 1879 151 0.993 0.293 0.201 2.987 0.275 0.344 62 842068 1593 1710 118 0.996 0.227 0.430 3.264 0.219 0.344 63 842069 1598 1708 111 0.995 0.374 1.556 8.138 0.314 0.281 64 842070 1601 1677 77 0.997 0.278 -0.121 3.263 0.307 0.144 65 842071 1625 1708 84 0.994 0.324 0.571 2.751 0.258 0.505 66 842072 1719 1815 97 0.996 0.224 0.096 2.909 0.191 0.432 67 842073 1715 1829 115 0.997 0.313 -0.111 2.987 0.248 0.535 68 842074 1722 1838 117 0.995 0.275 0.416 2.762 0.219 0.506 69 842077 1145 1210 66 0.999 0.200 0.678 4.007 0.218 -0.107 70 842081 1156 1197 42 0.993 0.296 0.112 2.495 0.306 0.255 71 842083 1260 1340 81 0.995 0.341 -0.006 2.808 0.285 0.463 72 842084 1275 1340 66 0.997 0.366 -0.210 3.708 0.332 0.415 73 842085 1270 1338 69 0.991 0.319 0.798 3.531 0.243 0.485 74 842086 1250 1328 79 0.989 0.398 0.001 2.963 0.392 0.435 75 842087 1275 1340 66 0.995 0.365 0.048 3.674 0.341 0.454 76 842088 1247 1305 59 0.996 0.348 -0.300 2.901 0.366 0.259 77 842900 1740 1986 247 0.997 0.377 0.792 4.157 0.310 0.438 78 842910 1755 1987 233 0.995 0.362 0.802 3.870 0.264 0.560 79 842920 1786 1987 202 0.995 0.373 0.858 4.237 0.268 0.557 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 80 842930 1785 1986 202 0.995 0.468 0.850 3.624 0.382 0.455 81 842940 1879 1986 108 0.998 0.333 0.986 4.320 0.289 0.372 82 842950 1783 1986 204 0.998 0.302 0.262 3.042 0.281 0.389 83 842960 1790 1986 197 0.999 0.293 0.500 3.632 0.244 0.446 84 842970 1777 1987 211 0.991 0.317 0.792 4.228 0.240 0.524 85 842980 1751 1986 236 0.998 0.391 0.750 3.072 0.292 0.561 86 842990 1792 1987 196 0.998 0.290 0.192 3.135 0.261 0.256 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 0.995 0.385 0.584 5.184 0.272 0.440 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.005 0.570 1.312 14.340 0.052 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 118 0.996 0.326 0.430 3.275 0.270 0.449 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.004 0.077 0.532 0.937 0.071 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 42 0.965 0.200 -0.328 2.478 0.175 -0.107 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.994 0.289 0.192 2.925 0.232 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 167 0.998 0.366 0.723 3.861 0.302 0.557 MAXIMUM VALUE 247 1.000 5.579 11.901135.722 0.400 0.731 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 954 0.235 0.190 0.006 -0.104 2.844 -0.434 0.842 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.434 SERIES 842021 AND 842025 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.842 SERIES 842084 AND 842087 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 26.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 2.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1152. 1180. 1205. 1230. 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. CORR 1. 28. 21. 21. 21. 15. 28. 1. 21. 15. RBAR -0.024 0.170 0.215 0.257 0.203 0.383 0.457 0.361 0.233 0.452 SDEV 0.000 0.233 0.189 0.102 0.171 0.144 0.143 0.143 0.156 0.118 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.041 0.022 0.037 0.037 0.027 0.000 0.034 0.031 EPS -0.196 0.697 0.744 0.759 0.713 0.880 0.916 0.869 0.749 0.879 NSS 6.8 11.3 10.6 9.1 9.8 11.9 12.9 11.7 9.8 8.8 YEAR 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. CORR 6. 6. 6. 28. 45. 36. 45. 45. 55. 105. RBAR 0.419 0.025 0.180 0.188 0.296 0.337 0.254 0.179 0.183 0.197 SDEV 0.073 0.247 0.323 0.180 0.199 0.197 0.249 0.232 0.256 0.220 SERR 0.030 0.101 0.132 0.034 0.030 0.033 0.037 0.035 0.034 0.021 EPS 0.863 0.179 0.675 0.730 0.859 0.890 0.839 0.777 0.799 0.819 NSS 8.7 8.3 9.4 11.7 14.5 16.0 15.2 16.0 17.7 18.3 YEAR 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. CORR 55. 45. 55. 66. 105. 45. 45. 55. 55. 36. RBAR 0.206 0.264 0.161 0.164 0.245 0.293 0.240 0.387 0.382 0.645 SDEV 0.269 0.201 0.260 0.217 0.209 0.168 0.202 0.213 0.224 0.087 SERR 0.036 0.030 0.035 0.027 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.029 0.030 0.015 EPS 0.833 0.881 0.794 0.795 0.868 0.887 0.840 0.898 0.879 0.950 NSS 19.2 20.6 20.1 19.8 20.2 19.0 16.7 13.9 11.7 10.5 YEAR 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.488 0.420 0.365 SDEV 0.120 0.158 0.163 SERR 0.018 0.024 0.024 EPS 0.905 0.879 0.852 NSS 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1127 1987 861 0.981 0.191 0.035 3.304 0.174 0.388 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.335 0.155 0.123 250 611 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.86 1.00 1.09 1.95 1675.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.38 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.388 0.246 0.147 -0.007 -0.024 -0.062 -0.070 -0.078 -0.042 -0.035 PACF 0.388 0.113 0.022 -0.110 -0.013 -0.037 -0.020 -0.038 0.017 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.068 0.078 0.081 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.083 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.162 0.345 0.112 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.242 0.148 0.064 0.008 0.011 -0.015 -0.030 -0.018 -0.005 -0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.242 2 0.219 0.095 3 0.219 0.093 0.009 4 0.219 0.095 0.014 -0.024 5 0.219 0.095 0.014 -0.025 0.008 6 0.219 0.095 0.014 -0.023 0.012 -0.019 7 0.219 0.095 0.013 -0.023 0.014 -0.013 -0.025 8 0.219 0.095 0.013 -0.023 0.014 -0.013 -0.024 -0.003 9 0.219 0.095 0.013 -0.023 0.014 -0.013 -0.025 -0.005 0.008 10 0.219 0.095 0.013 -0.023 0.014 -0.013 -0.025 -0.005 0.008 0.000 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 7992.24 7942.08 7936.27 7938.19 7939.72 7941.67 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 7943.37 7944.83 7946.82 7948.77 7950.77 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.095 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.73 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 107.21 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.219 0.143 0.052 0.025 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 842001 2 0.230 0.351 0.189 2 842002 2 0.046 0.217 -0.015 3 842003 2 0.277 0.469 0.096 4 842004 2 0.419 0.617 0.045 5 842005 2 0.378 0.603 0.018 6 842006 2 0.103 0.295 0.061 7 842007 2 0.309 0.558 -0.008 8 842008 2 0.411 0.520 0.170 9 842009 2 0.336 0.654 -0.328 10 842011 2 0.339 0.596 -0.026 11 842012 2 0.160 0.378 0.035 12 842013 2 0.255 0.463 0.056 13 842014 2 0.117 0.342 -0.016 14 842015 2 0.351 0.607 -0.029 15 842016 2 0.475 0.759 -0.114 16 842017 2 0.347 0.529 0.088 17 842018 2 0.201 0.448 -0.017 18 842019 2 0.223 0.410 0.103 19 842020 2 0.234 0.516 -0.077 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 842021 2 0.180 0.437 -0.052 21 842022 2 0.438 0.629 0.048 22 842023 2 0.110 0.239 0.102 23 842024 2 0.277 0.426 0.159 24 842025 2 0.297 0.465 0.081 25 842026 2 0.180 0.415 0.012 26 842027 2 0.225 0.459 0.028 27 842028 2 0.186 0.265 0.257 28 842029 2 0.327 0.552 0.034 29 842030 2 0.480 0.795 -0.180 30 842031 2 0.380 0.440 0.239 31 842032 2 0.174 0.430 -0.074 32 842033 2 0.152 0.391 -0.013 33 842034 2 0.116 0.342 -0.009 34 842035 2 0.373 0.503 0.157 35 842036 2 0.348 0.587 -0.001 36 842037 2 0.357 0.538 0.090 37 842038 2 0.384 0.692 -0.136 38 842040 2 0.554 0.604 0.178 39 842042 2 0.266 0.582 -0.244 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 40 842043 2 0.164 0.403 -0.027 41 842044 2 0.119 0.350 -0.019 42 842046 2 0.100 0.330 -0.065 43 842047 2 0.197 0.351 0.162 44 842048 2 0.101 0.259 0.081 45 842049 2 0.322 0.549 0.029 46 842050 2 0.254 0.476 0.018 47 842051 2 0.232 0.491 -0.024 48 842052 2 0.222 0.279 0.274 49 842053 2 0.110 0.275 0.117 50 842054 2 0.470 0.577 0.146 51 842055 2 0.146 0.398 -0.053 52 842056 2 0.195 0.361 0.056 53 842057 2 0.092 0.229 0.085 54 842058 2 0.323 0.610 -0.089 55 842059 2 0.098 0.315 -0.163 56 842060 2 0.185 0.399 0.063 57 842061 2 0.028 0.124 -0.026 58 842062 2 0.201 0.357 0.146 59 842063 2 0.328 0.608 -0.115 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 60 842064 2 0.231 0.514 -0.087 61 842065 2 0.130 0.345 0.003 62 842068 2 0.129 0.325 0.060 63 842069 2 0.103 0.249 0.142 64 842070 2 0.042 0.124 0.145 65 842071 2 0.258 0.502 0.010 66 842072 2 0.216 0.490 -0.083 67 842073 2 0.300 0.593 -0.094 68 842074 2 0.276 0.451 0.121 69 842077 2 0.065 -0.117 -0.091 70 842081 2 0.119 0.255 0.031 71 842083 2 0.223 0.466 -0.001 72 842084 2 0.224 0.418 -0.004 73 842085 2 0.247 0.514 -0.035 74 842086 2 0.219 0.384 0.143 75 842087 2 0.249 0.442 0.031 76 842088 2 0.139 0.199 0.234 77 842900 2 0.264 0.337 0.231 78 842910 2 0.328 0.500 0.110 79 842920 2 0.365 0.460 0.207 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 80 842930 2 0.225 0.416 0.086 81 842940 2 0.164 0.370 0.018 82 842950 2 0.197 0.308 0.214 83 842960 2 0.200 0.466 -0.046 84 842970 2 0.351 0.368 0.301 85 842980 2 0.335 0.481 0.144 86 842990 2 0.123 0.205 0.204 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.240 0.429 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.113 0.148 0.117 MEDIAN 2 0.225 0.438 0.031 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.176 0.177 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.028 -0.117 -0.328 LOWER HINGE 2 0.152 0.342 -0.026 UPPER HINGE 2 0.328 0.520 0.121 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.554 0.795 0.301 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 842001 1127 1203 77 1.000 0.214 0.459 3.197 0.231 0.025 2 842002 1127 1206 80 1.000 0.229 2.223 11.464 0.194 0.000 3 842003 1132 1250 119 1.000 0.296 2.663 16.471 0.270 0.075 4 842004 1148 1339 192 1.000 0.255 0.253 3.243 0.291 0.000 5 842005 1146 1338 193 1.000 0.297 0.358 3.920 0.345 0.003 6 842006 1153 1298 146 1.000 0.342 0.638 4.388 0.391 -0.002 7 842007 1153 1339 187 1.000 0.235 0.066 3.210 0.265 0.001 8 842008 1154 1284 131 1.000 0.244 0.347 3.399 0.266 0.010 9 842009 1164 1244 81 1.000 0.254 0.540 4.883 0.284 0.041 10 842011 1181 1295 115 1.000 0.279 -0.016 2.901 0.337 0.004 11 842012 1198 1338 141 1.000 0.250 0.680 4.087 0.276 0.002 12 842013 1281 1396 116 1.000 0.206 0.805 4.812 0.225 0.007 13 842014 1290 1389 100 1.000 0.267 0.023 2.856 0.308 0.001 14 842015 1310 1428 119 1.000 0.296 0.100 4.530 0.335 0.002 15 842016 1322 1457 136 1.000 0.258 -0.320 3.882 0.325 -0.008 16 842017 1323 1427 105 1.000 0.243 0.171 2.597 0.271 0.022 17 842018 1323 1427 105 1.000 0.265 -0.179 3.196 0.307 0.016 18 842019 1330 1429 100 1.000 0.251 -0.025 2.766 0.302 -0.007 19 842020 1342 1543 202 1.000 0.291 0.477 3.293 0.334 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 842021 1358 1467 110 1.000 0.199 0.447 4.442 0.222 -0.004 21 842022 1389 1555 167 1.002 0.342 0.406 3.881 0.393 -0.001 22 842023 1413 1537 125 1.000 0.346 0.614 3.736 0.367 0.020 23 842024 1425 1535 111 1.000 0.247 0.197 3.262 0.282 0.004 24 842025 1431 1501 71 1.000 0.226 -0.004 4.643 0.254 0.022 25 842026 1447 1671 225 1.000 0.349 0.345 3.037 0.403 0.000 26 842027 1446 1598 153 1.000 0.283 0.350 3.652 0.309 -0.001 27 842028 1447 1535 89 1.000 0.264 0.601 4.078 0.303 -0.007 28 842029 1454 1595 142 1.000 0.312 0.428 2.787 0.348 0.001 29 842030 1463 1559 97 1.000 0.290 0.409 2.895 0.332 -0.018 30 842031 1467 1667 201 1.000 0.314 0.221 3.620 0.350 0.019 31 842032 1483 1576 94 1.000 0.267 0.440 2.864 0.300 0.007 32 842033 1487 1597 111 1.000 0.205 0.192 2.818 0.229 -0.002 33 842034 1508 1624 117 1.000 0.245 0.458 4.232 0.270 -0.001 34 842035 1508 1622 115 1.000 0.261 0.464 3.224 0.294 -0.008 35 842036 1512 1665 154 1.000 0.237 0.365 3.329 0.275 0.002 36 842037 1506 1688 183 1.000 0.279 0.061 3.080 0.333 -0.005 37 842038 1504 1695 192 1.000 0.315 0.675 3.912 0.349 0.002 38 842040 1532 1723 192 1.000 0.322 0.732 4.928 0.350 -0.007 39 842042 1551 1650 100 1.000 0.278 0.390 3.240 0.317 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 40 842043 1554 1665 112 1.000 0.296 0.049 2.653 0.345 -0.001 41 842044 1561 1702 142 1.000 0.336 0.644 3.329 0.389 0.003 42 842046 1578 1657 80 1.000 0.311 0.733 4.587 0.331 0.009 43 842047 1579 1753 175 1.000 0.338 0.457 3.281 0.383 -0.006 44 842048 1654 1719 66 1.000 0.317 1.221 6.278 0.327 0.008 45 842049 1593 1754 162 1.000 0.305 0.399 3.534 0.339 0.005 46 842050 1593 1778 186 1.000 0.365 0.496 3.420 0.418 -0.003 47 842051 1611 1703 93 1.000 0.304 -0.008 3.827 0.359 0.003 48 842052 1651 1778 128 1.000 0.343 0.421 2.973 0.378 -0.031 49 842053 1651 1793 143 1.000 5.261 12.083138.726 0.221 0.132 50 842054 1658 1793 136 1.000 0.210 0.144 4.054 0.227 0.003 51 842055 1658 1746 89 1.000 0.264 0.467 3.621 0.302 -0.015 52 842056 1664 1792 129 1.000 0.213 -0.411 3.440 0.252 0.009 53 842057 1672 1792 121 1.000 0.220 0.200 3.510 0.246 -0.016 54 842058 1673 1791 119 1.000 0.231 0.144 2.903 0.272 -0.008 55 842059 1684 1792 109 1.000 0.343 0.272 2.759 0.406 -0.005 56 842060 1678 1781 104 1.000 0.183 0.197 3.427 0.208 -0.003 57 842061 1684 1782 99 1.000 0.366 0.869 5.250 0.417 -0.003 58 842062 1694 1832 139 1.000 0.306 0.560 3.322 0.344 0.000 59 842063 1706 1853 148 1.000 0.259 -0.103 3.592 0.287 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 60 842064 1709 1879 171 1.000 0.299 0.076 3.296 0.320 -0.004 61 842065 1729 1879 151 1.000 0.275 0.113 2.780 0.315 0.001 62 842068 1593 1710 118 1.000 0.213 0.161 2.983 0.250 -0.005 63 842069 1598 1708 111 1.000 0.355 1.696 9.260 0.349 0.007 64 842070 1601 1677 77 1.000 0.271 -0.065 3.375 0.322 0.002 65 842071 1625 1708 84 1.000 0.279 0.367 2.846 0.314 0.000 66 842072 1719 1815 97 1.000 0.198 -0.099 2.927 0.227 0.011 67 842073 1715 1829 115 1.000 0.261 0.154 3.112 0.298 -0.003 68 842074 1722 1838 117 1.000 0.234 0.185 2.809 0.265 -0.005 69 842077 1145 1210 66 1.000 0.198 0.790 4.230 0.199 0.019 70 842081 1156 1197 42 1.000 0.285 0.232 2.518 0.329 0.007 71 842083 1260 1340 81 1.000 0.302 -0.369 3.582 0.362 -0.002 72 842084 1275 1340 66 1.000 0.333 0.280 6.006 0.373 -0.002 73 842085 1270 1338 69 1.000 0.277 0.341 4.169 0.288 0.007 74 842086 1250 1328 79 1.000 0.352 0.041 3.562 0.431 0.009 75 842087 1275 1340 66 1.000 0.324 0.307 3.917 0.391 0.009 76 842088 1247 1305 59 1.000 0.327 -0.138 3.067 0.383 0.034 77 842900 1740 1986 247 1.000 0.329 0.490 3.823 0.367 -0.045 78 842910 1755 1987 233 1.000 0.298 0.555 3.970 0.325 -0.007 79 842920 1786 1987 202 1.000 0.297 0.817 5.685 0.312 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 80 842930 1785 1986 202 1.000 0.415 0.667 3.740 0.468 -0.009 81 842940 1879 1986 108 1.000 0.308 0.502 3.216 0.342 0.003 82 842950 1783 1986 204 1.000 0.271 0.015 2.531 0.323 -0.019 83 842960 1790 1986 197 1.000 0.262 0.204 2.937 0.292 0.000 84 842970 1777 1987 211 1.000 0.257 0.527 4.164 0.278 -0.034 85 842980 1751 1986 236 1.001 0.317 0.259 3.239 0.357 -0.004 86 842990 1792 1987 196 1.000 0.274 0.339 3.606 0.295 -0.031 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 131 1.000 0.339 0.516 5.472 0.315 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.539 1.342 14.659 0.057 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 118 1.000 0.279 0.348 3.434 0.316 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 70 0.000 0.066 0.383 1.011 0.074 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 42 1.000 0.183 -0.411 2.518 0.194 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.250 0.144 3.067 0.275 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 167 1.000 0.315 0.527 4.078 0.349 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 247 1.002 5.261 12.083138.726 0.468 0.132 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 954 0.279 0.161 0.005 -0.193 3.163 -0.397 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.397 SERIES 842021 AND 842025 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 842084 AND 842087 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 26.10 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 2.37 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1152. 1180. 1205. 1230. 1255. 1280. 1305. 1330. 1355. 1380. CORR 1. 28. 21. 21. 21. 15. 28. 1. 21. 15. RBAR 0.052 0.253 0.235 0.273 0.271 0.346 0.391 0.308 0.258 0.396 SDEV 0.000 0.176 0.136 0.118 0.152 0.133 0.155 0.155 0.122 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.033 0.030 0.026 0.033 0.034 0.029 0.000 0.027 0.034 EPS 0.274 0.792 0.766 0.774 0.784 0.863 0.892 0.839 0.773 0.852 NSS 6.8 11.3 10.6 9.1 9.8 11.9 12.9 11.7 9.8 8.8 YEAR 1405. 1430. 1455. 1480. 1505. 1530. 1555. 1580. 1605. 1630. CORR 6. 6. 6. 28. 45. 36. 45. 45. 55. 105. RBAR 0.405 0.153 0.185 0.255 0.303 0.331 0.274 0.250 0.286 0.301 SDEV 0.105 0.165 0.262 0.162 0.172 0.160 0.213 0.143 0.180 0.167 SERR 0.043 0.067 0.107 0.031 0.026 0.027 0.032 0.021 0.024 0.016 EPS 0.856 0.600 0.682 0.800 0.863 0.888 0.852 0.842 0.877 0.887 NSS 8.7 8.3 9.4 11.7 14.5 16.0 15.2 16.0 17.7 18.3 YEAR 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. CORR 55. 45. 55. 66. 105. 45. 45. 55. 55. 36. RBAR 0.363 0.329 0.196 0.217 0.314 0.361 0.248 0.362 0.392 0.624 SDEV 0.144 0.160 0.212 0.235 0.196 0.155 0.183 0.161 0.177 0.099 SERR 0.019 0.024 0.029 0.029 0.019 0.023 0.027 0.022 0.024 0.017 EPS 0.916 0.910 0.830 0.846 0.902 0.915 0.846 0.888 0.883 0.946 NSS 19.2 20.6 20.1 19.8 20.2 19.0 16.7 13.9 11.7 10.5 YEAR 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.553 0.426 0.434 SDEV 0.124 0.135 0.132 SERR 0.018 0.020 0.020 EPS 0.925 0.881 0.885 NSS 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1127 1987 861 0.989 0.171 -0.057 3.314 0.203 -0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.247 0.105 0.123 269 592 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.63 1.00 1.12 1.74 1625.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.32 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.103 0.002 0.062 -0.082 -0.006 -0.055 -0.030 -0.056 0.023 -0.012 PACF -0.103 -0.009 0.062 -0.070 -0.022 -0.062 -0.034 -0.068 0.015 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.068 0.069 0.069 0.069 0.070 0.070 0.070 0.070 0.070 0.070 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 -0.103 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.006 0.054 -0.078 -0.020 -0.061 -0.042 -0.059 0.017 -0.007 PACF 0.000 0.006 0.054 -0.078 -0.021 -0.064 -0.034 -0.063 0.021 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.068 0.068 0.068 0.068 0.069 0.069 0.069 0.069 0.069 0.069 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.000 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1127 1987 861 0.989 0.176 0.053 3.337 0.176 0.247 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.246 0.152 0.084 -0.055 -0.044 -0.088 -0.073 -0.077 -0.011 -0.021 PACF 0.246 0.097 0.028 -0.102 -0.024 -0.061 -0.025 -0.044 0.034 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.068 0.072 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.075 0.075 0.076 0.076 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.070 0.223 0.097 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 4.92 MINUTES