RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit102e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit102e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 215 1 Grindelwald BE WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 215 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1370 4636-804 1859 1974 - 215 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 521001 1785 1977 193 0.946 0.377 1.062 4.482 0.239 0.744 2 521002 1798 1977 180 0.996 0.366 1.850 10.085 0.212 0.674 3 521003 1807 1977 171 0.788 0.282 0.087 3.095 0.244 0.676 4 521005 1887 1977 91 1.551 0.973 1.319 4.263 0.277 0.815 5 521006 1873 1977 105 1.799 1.251 2.033 6.950 0.193 0.872 6 521007 1863 1977 115 1.193 0.504 0.765 2.683 0.245 0.760 7 521008 1889 1977 89 1.726 0.620 0.043 2.840 0.221 0.711 8 521009 1812 1966 155 0.970 0.260 0.167 2.589 0.197 0.606 9 521010 1773 1973 201 0.498 0.241 0.253 2.601 0.292 0.814 10 521011 1890 1975 86 1.139 1.080 1.237 3.398 0.479 0.846 11 521012 1876 1977 102 1.149 0.326 0.111 2.332 0.218 0.576 12 215013 1770 1977 208 1.213 0.740 1.204 3.441 0.185 0.902 13 215014 1785 1977 193 1.329 1.004 1.633 5.972 0.231 0.912 14 215015 1739 1974 236 1.364 0.839 1.128 3.479 0.201 0.886 15 215016 1885 1974 90 1.215 0.268 0.902 4.540 0.135 0.590 16 215017 1880 1974 95 1.533 0.637 0.365 2.376 0.159 0.901 17 215018 1859 1974 116 1.435 0.411 0.304 3.440 0.200 0.621 18 215019 1877 1974 98 1.652 1.006 1.036 3.075 0.158 0.930 19 215020 1862 1958 97 1.634 0.616 1.973 7.719 0.169 0.796 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 215021 1884 1974 91 1.315 0.467 1.035 3.965 0.175 0.759 21 215022 1894 1974 81 1.881 0.518 0.570 3.517 0.182 0.458 22 215023 1889 1974 86 1.777 0.992 1.320 3.920 0.170 0.878 23 215151 1909 1974 66 1.821 0.942 0.627 2.781 0.192 0.861 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1739 TO 1977 239 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.345 0.640 0.914 4.067 0.216 0.765 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.363 0.312 0.616 1.919 0.069 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.329 0.616 1.035 3.441 0.200 0.796 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 85 0.499 0.586 0.943 1.562 0.056 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.498 0.241 0.043 2.332 0.135 0.458 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.144 0.371 0.335 2.810 0.178 0.675 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 175 1.643 0.957 1.278 4.373 0.235 0.875 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.881 1.251 2.033 10.085 0.479 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.290 0.338 0.021 -0.296 2.484 -0.576 0.914 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.576 SERIES 521005 AND 215015 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.914 SERIES 215015 AND 215151 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 28. 28. 55. 210. 231. RBAR 0.340 0.304 0.364 0.137 0.211 0.326 SDEV 0.301 0.270 0.211 0.317 0.427 0.331 SERR 0.095 0.051 0.040 0.043 0.029 0.022 EPS 0.784 0.782 0.864 0.740 0.858 0.917 NSS 7.1 8.2 11.1 17.9 22.5 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1977 239 1.200 0.502 1.062 3.822 0.149 0.846 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.169 0.110 0.311 74 165 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.65 2.08 1.00 1.18 3.26 31.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.80 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 102. 85. 66. 90. 176. 236. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.842 0.735 0.682 0.614 0.597 0.591 0.612 0.607 0.586 0.553 PACF 0.842 0.088 0.151 -0.027 0.168 0.080 0.193 -0.003 0.032 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.129 0.201 0.242 0.272 0.295 0.314 0.332 0.351 0.368 0.383 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.755 0.868 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 521001 1 1.53258264 0.08242849 0.00000000 0.85343581 2 521002 1 0.58549726 0.03971540 0.00000000 0.91594559 3 521003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00149557 0.91709870 4 521005 1 3.82402897 0.10718089 0.00000000 1.17980087 5 521006 1 5.41073036 0.06527305 0.00000000 1.03617191 6 521007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00752308 1.62981689 7 521008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01568131 2.43195105 8 521009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00168773 0.83880854 9 521010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00177996 0.67813432 10 521011 1 4.02459764 0.04076004 0.00000000 0.04776224 11 521012 1 0.39177287 0.04598638 0.00000000 1.06815362 12 215013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00350260 0.84719902 13 215014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00885992 0.46981055 14 215015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00284771 1.02695274 15 215016 1 0.99397606 0.01350588 0.00000000 0.64388800 16 215017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01993841 2.48978043 17 215018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00322727 1.24646330 18 215019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03038387 3.15583849 19 215020 1 1.32464814 0.00900539 0.00000000 0.75497609 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 215021 1 1.75406134 0.01107632 0.00000000 0.21632041 21 215022 1 1.46626484 0.01043361 0.00000000 0.89684200 22 215023 1 3.54520392 0.03576009 0.00000000 0.69708848 23 215151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04273980 3.25314689 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 521001 1785 1977 193 1.000 0.324 0.578 3.921 0.238 0.627 2 521002 1798 1977 180 1.000 0.335 1.565 9.509 0.211 0.633 3 521003 1807 1977 171 0.999 0.356 0.221 2.959 0.242 0.655 4 521005 1887 1977 91 0.999 0.474 1.093 4.464 0.271 0.766 5 521006 1873 1977 105 0.999 0.249 0.304 2.921 0.187 0.584 6 521007 1863 1977 115 0.997 0.330 0.203 2.759 0.243 0.616 7 521008 1889 1977 89 0.996 0.296 0.393 3.570 0.218 0.604 8 521009 1812 1966 155 1.000 0.256 0.084 2.537 0.196 0.569 9 521010 1773 1973 201 0.990 0.450 0.458 2.878 0.291 0.766 10 521011 1890 1975 86 1.037 0.490 0.958 4.972 0.473 0.226 11 521012 1876 1977 102 1.000 0.275 0.228 2.635 0.215 0.553 12 215013 1770 1977 208 1.005 0.607 1.538 5.700 0.184 0.850 13 215014 1785 1977 193 1.019 0.792 3.240 18.217 0.229 0.801 14 215015 1739 1974 236 1.006 0.617 1.102 3.151 0.200 0.871 15 215016 1885 1974 90 1.000 0.143 0.384 3.122 0.133 0.223 16 215017 1880 1974 95 1.009 0.257 0.869 4.358 0.159 0.659 17 215018 1859 1974 116 0.999 0.281 0.546 3.751 0.198 0.594 18 215019 1877 1974 98 1.116 0.628 3.800 19.134 0.159 0.822 19 215020 1862 1958 97 1.000 0.330 1.425 5.803 0.168 0.741 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 215021 1884 1974 91 1.000 0.220 -0.633 4.324 0.173 0.544 21 215022 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.252 1.147 7.020 0.179 0.355 22 215023 1889 1974 86 1.001 0.214 0.395 3.049 0.166 0.466 23 215151 1909 1974 66 1.011 0.256 0.928 4.895 0.188 0.462 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.008 0.367 0.905 5.463 0.214 0.608 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.025 0.163 0.980 4.479 0.068 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.324 0.578 3.921 0.198 0.616 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 85 0.006 0.206 0.781 2.332 0.057 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.990 0.143 -0.633 2.537 0.133 0.223 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.999 0.256 0.344 3.004 0.176 0.549 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 175 1.005 0.462 1.125 5.336 0.233 0.753 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.116 0.792 3.800 19.134 0.473 0.871 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 521001 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 521002 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 521003 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 521005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 521006 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 521007 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 521008 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 521009 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 521010 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 521011 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 521012 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 215013 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 215014 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 215015 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 215016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 215017 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 215018 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 215019 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 215020 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 215021 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 215022 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 215023 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 215151 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 521001 1785 1977 193 0.998 0.275 0.274 3.037 0.237 0.463 2 521002 1798 1977 180 0.997 0.325 1.734 10.609 0.211 0.613 3 521003 1807 1977 171 0.996 0.304 0.175 3.824 0.242 0.532 4 521005 1887 1977 91 0.973 0.319 0.536 3.657 0.268 0.507 5 521006 1873 1977 105 0.998 0.229 0.199 2.870 0.187 0.515 6 521007 1863 1977 115 0.987 0.258 0.023 3.666 0.244 0.404 7 521008 1889 1977 89 0.995 0.264 0.277 2.868 0.217 0.529 8 521009 1812 1966 155 0.998 0.240 -0.020 2.491 0.196 0.505 9 521010 1773 1973 201 0.992 0.360 0.236 3.189 0.291 0.527 10 521011 1890 1975 86 0.997 0.427 0.519 4.993 0.473 0.159 11 521012 1876 1977 102 0.997 0.254 0.236 2.474 0.215 0.479 12 215013 1770 1977 208 0.972 0.386 0.649 3.067 0.184 0.805 13 215014 1785 1977 193 0.945 0.421 1.312 6.071 0.230 0.755 14 215015 1739 1974 236 0.973 0.399 1.431 5.934 0.200 0.756 15 215016 1885 1974 90 1.000 0.139 0.299 2.894 0.133 0.181 16 215017 1880 1974 95 0.996 0.213 0.290 3.291 0.157 0.533 17 215018 1859 1974 116 0.996 0.241 0.637 4.141 0.199 0.452 18 215019 1877 1974 98 0.995 0.275 0.863 3.924 0.157 0.682 19 215020 1862 1958 97 0.992 0.273 1.030 5.204 0.167 0.655 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 215021 1884 1974 91 0.999 0.214 -0.561 4.726 0.172 0.508 21 215022 1894 1974 81 0.995 0.211 0.725 4.491 0.179 0.182 22 215023 1889 1974 86 0.998 0.198 0.246 2.973 0.166 0.394 23 215151 1909 1974 66 0.997 0.213 0.305 3.148 0.187 0.289 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.991 0.280 0.496 4.067 0.214 0.497 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.013 0.077 0.514 1.761 0.068 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 0.996 0.264 0.299 3.657 0.199 0.508 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 85 0.006 0.100 0.451 1.604 0.058 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.945 0.139 -0.561 2.474 0.133 0.159 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 0.992 0.222 0.236 3.005 0.176 0.428 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 175 0.998 0.322 0.687 4.609 0.234 0.573 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.000 0.427 1.734 10.609 0.473 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.206 0.193 0.012 0.147 2.561 -0.286 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.286 SERIES 521005 AND 215014 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 215013 AND 215015 205 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 28. 28. 55. 210. 231. RBAR 0.378 0.321 0.350 0.153 0.183 0.246 SDEV 0.235 0.265 0.272 0.251 0.252 0.257 SERR 0.074 0.050 0.051 0.034 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.811 0.795 0.857 0.764 0.835 0.882 NSS 7.1 8.2 11.1 17.9 22.5 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1977 239 0.988 0.195 0.259 3.551 0.162 0.449 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.226 0.167 0.060 65 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.98 1.00 1.14 2.12 14.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.78 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.447 0.229 0.122 0.035 0.017 0.008 0.074 0.100 0.076 0.006 PACF 0.447 0.037 0.008 -0.036 0.010 0.002 0.088 0.047 -0.001 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.129 0.153 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.203 0.449 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.382 0.233 0.129 -0.069 -0.023 -0.019 -0.103 -0.074 -0.134 -0.090 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.382 2 0.343 0.102 3 0.341 0.098 0.012 4 0.343 0.115 0.068 -0.166 5 0.350 0.112 0.064 -0.180 0.040 6 0.349 0.115 0.063 -0.182 0.034 0.018 7 0.351 0.118 0.045 -0.176 0.045 0.053 -0.099 8 0.348 0.120 0.046 -0.181 0.047 0.057 -0.087 -0.033 9 0.345 0.113 0.051 -0.177 0.031 0.061 -0.077 -0.003 -0.087 10 0.347 0.113 0.052 -0.178 0.030 0.064 -0.078 -0.005 -0.093 0.019 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1675.64 1640.00 1639.49 1641.46 1636.79 1638.40 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1640.32 1639.97 1641.71 1641.89 1643.81 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.343 0.102 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.29 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.343 0.220 0.110 0.060 0.032 0.017 0.009 0.005 0.003 0.0014 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 521001 2 0.222 0.423 0.087 2 521002 2 0.383 0.563 0.083 3 521003 2 0.293 0.476 0.107 4 521005 2 0.285 0.420 0.172 5 521006 2 0.293 0.548 -0.061 6 521007 2 0.220 0.329 0.190 7 521008 2 0.323 0.459 0.133 8 521009 2 0.258 0.496 0.020 9 521010 2 0.331 0.391 0.262 10 521011 2 0.027 0.157 0.027 11 521012 2 0.299 0.341 0.288 12 215013 2 0.676 0.754 0.081 13 215014 2 0.631 0.746 0.060 14 215015 2 0.582 0.732 0.037 15 215016 2 0.050 0.211 -0.121 16 215017 2 0.300 0.582 -0.071 17 215018 2 0.226 0.444 0.034 18 215019 2 0.482 0.663 0.042 19 215020 2 0.448 0.757 -0.147 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 215021 2 0.325 0.604 -0.173 21 215022 2 0.069 0.154 0.182 22 215023 2 0.175 0.353 0.123 23 215151 2 0.108 0.327 -0.100 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.304 0.475 0.055 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.173 0.183 0.124 MEDIAN 2 0.293 0.459 0.060 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.136 0.246 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.027 0.154 -0.173 LOWER HINGE 2 0.221 0.347 -0.020 UPPER HINGE 2 0.357 0.593 0.128 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.676 0.757 0.288 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 521001 1785 1977 193 1.000 0.243 0.024 3.463 0.284 -0.004 2 521002 1798 1977 180 1.000 0.256 1.452 11.274 0.262 0.006 3 521003 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.256 0.166 3.898 0.270 0.000 4 521005 1887 1977 91 1.000 0.270 0.502 4.271 0.316 0.014 5 521006 1873 1977 105 1.000 0.196 0.483 3.395 0.224 -0.011 6 521007 1863 1977 115 1.000 0.232 -0.058 3.773 0.280 -0.031 7 521008 1889 1977 89 1.000 0.222 0.171 2.542 0.251 0.026 8 521009 1812 1966 155 1.000 0.207 -0.131 2.597 0.237 -0.001 9 521010 1773 1973 201 1.000 0.294 0.499 4.807 0.326 -0.007 10 521011 1890 1975 86 1.000 0.422 0.395 4.439 0.494 0.001 11 521012 1876 1977 102 1.000 0.214 0.407 3.483 0.246 -0.027 12 215013 1770 1977 208 1.000 0.217 0.542 4.624 0.236 -0.016 13 215014 1785 1977 193 1.000 0.248 0.167 4.312 0.277 -0.041 14 215015 1739 1974 236 1.000 0.259 1.166 8.388 0.274 -0.003 15 215016 1885 1974 90 1.000 0.135 0.266 2.905 0.140 -0.008 16 215017 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.178 -0.122 3.939 0.189 0.003 17 215018 1859 1974 116 1.000 0.214 0.370 4.042 0.236 0.009 18 215019 1877 1974 98 1.000 0.197 0.706 3.761 0.203 -0.006 19 215020 1862 1958 97 1.000 0.202 0.388 6.196 0.228 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 215021 1884 1974 91 1.000 0.181 -0.403 3.525 0.207 -0.036 21 215022 1894 1974 81 1.000 0.203 1.013 5.250 0.190 -0.003 22 215023 1889 1974 86 1.000 0.180 0.047 3.899 0.193 -0.003 23 215151 1909 1974 66 1.000 0.202 0.174 2.827 0.210 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.227 0.358 4.418 0.251 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.000 0.055 0.430 1.953 0.069 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.214 0.370 3.899 0.237 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 85 0.000 0.052 0.394 1.058 0.067 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.135 -0.403 2.542 0.140 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.200 0.107 3.473 0.208 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 175 1.000 0.252 0.501 4.531 0.275 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.000 0.422 1.452 11.274 0.494 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.271 0.167 0.011 0.219 2.180 -0.084 0.640 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.084 SERIES 521006 AND 215151 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.640 SERIES 215019 AND 215151 66 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 41.17 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 28. 28. 55. 210. 231. RBAR 0.514 0.507 0.524 0.263 0.243 0.277 SDEV 0.137 0.160 0.145 0.183 0.197 0.231 SERR 0.043 0.030 0.027 0.025 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.882 0.894 0.925 0.865 0.879 0.898 NSS 7.1 8.2 11.1 17.9 22.5 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1977 239 0.996 0.160 -0.168 3.809 0.196 -0.134 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.082 0.047 0.104 67 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.07 1.04 1.12 2.19 3.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.15 0.00 0.79 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.134 -0.101 -0.020 -0.100 -0.015 -0.070 0.010 0.039 0.049 -0.036 PACF -0.134 -0.121 -0.053 -0.128 -0.062 -0.118 -0.044 -0.010 0.034 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.129 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.035 -0.150 -0.121 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.023 -0.074 -0.137 -0.046 -0.084 0.009 0.039 0.047 -0.038 PACF -0.006 -0.023 -0.074 -0.139 -0.055 -0.101 -0.020 0.005 0.020 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 -0.006 -0.023 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1977 239 0.997 0.167 0.159 2.939 0.150 0.332 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.331 0.136 -0.042 -0.152 -0.116 -0.119 -0.030 0.015 0.022 -0.042 PACF 0.331 0.029 -0.107 -0.127 -0.017 -0.061 0.021 0.010 -0.012 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.129 0.143 0.145 0.145 0.148 0.149 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.111 0.331 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES