RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit103e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit103e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 219 1 Rigi Staffel SZ WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 219 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1600 4703-829 1840 1975 - 219 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 2.178 0.804 0.613 2.975 0.200 0.660 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.716 0.621 0.520 2.418 0.137 0.875 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.421 0.543 2.192 7.699 0.186 0.715 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.323 0.767 1.287 3.476 0.234 0.783 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.190 0.343 -0.156 2.459 0.172 0.724 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.222 0.831 1.311 3.814 0.226 0.855 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.521 0.559 0.838 3.324 0.183 0.816 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.164 0.520 -0.149 2.569 0.190 0.900 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.919 0.459 0.650 3.000 0.131 0.702 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.482 0.452 0.516 2.955 0.192 0.762 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.735 1.156 1.274 3.765 0.178 0.942 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.136 0.664 0.885 2.639 0.187 0.901 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.293 0.492 -0.046 2.655 0.201 0.809 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1840 TO 1975 136 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.484 0.632 0.749 3.365 0.186 0.803 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.321 0.215 0.670 1.384 0.029 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.421 0.559 0.650 2.975 0.187 0.809 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.494 0.276 0.758 0.836 0.021 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.136 0.343 -0.156 2.418 0.131 0.660 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.222 0.492 0.516 2.639 0.178 0.724 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.716 0.767 1.274 3.476 0.200 0.875 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 2.178 1.156 2.192 7.699 0.234 0.942 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.289 0.362 0.041 -0.273 2.072 -0.541 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.541 SERIES 219008 AND 219009 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 219003 AND 219004 78 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.673 0.389 0.184 SDEV 0.179 0.279 0.333 SERR 0.057 0.047 0.041 EPS 0.946 0.883 0.744 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 1.567 0.496 0.684 2.823 0.151 0.762 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.140 0.075 0.417 25 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 2.01 1.04 1.11 3.12 6.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 34. 48. 73. 107. 136. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.757 0.704 0.606 0.600 0.581 0.577 0.571 0.529 0.547 0.490 PACF 0.757 0.308 0.009 0.165 0.120 0.084 0.090 -0.029 0.121 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.171 0.251 0.304 0.337 0.367 0.394 0.418 0.440 0.458 0.477 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.645 0.537 0.311 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02806579 3.20245695 2 219002 1 2.19907594 0.02425428 0.00000000 0.77290171 3 219003 1 2.26457906 0.13481773 0.00000000 1.22000086 4 219004 1 2.54678249 0.02720845 0.00000000 0.41638428 5 219005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01631350 0.79031914 6 219006 1 2.59502101 0.02169012 0.00000000 0.28410238 7 219007 1 1.86952293 0.07470017 0.00000000 1.28900588 8 219008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00766152 0.84183073 9 219009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00969118 2.18034101 10 219010 1 0.21439286 0.03230470 0.00000000 1.40051806 11 219011 1 4.21881485 0.02953531 0.00000000 0.47522134 12 219013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01413229 2.10453272 13 219014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00938903 1.90362036 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.003 0.236 -0.189 4.091 0.198 0.396 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.207 0.242 4.597 0.137 0.622 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.220 0.017 2.706 0.183 0.454 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.004 0.274 0.246 2.957 0.230 0.436 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.221 -0.359 3.794 0.168 0.493 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.013 0.394 0.402 2.530 0.223 0.734 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.999 0.276 0.486 3.334 0.180 0.686 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.005 0.408 -0.778 2.612 0.187 0.845 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.999 0.223 0.647 3.076 0.129 0.643 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.302 0.463 2.856 0.189 0.747 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.003 0.237 0.077 3.662 0.176 0.546 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.068 0.425 1.671 7.474 0.187 0.694 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.997 0.299 0.065 3.387 0.200 0.630 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.007 0.286 0.230 3.621 0.184 0.610 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.019 0.076 0.580 1.309 0.028 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.274 0.242 3.334 0.187 0.630 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.004 0.079 0.446 0.938 0.021 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.997 0.207 -0.778 2.530 0.129 0.396 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.223 0.017 2.856 0.176 0.493 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.004 0.302 0.463 3.794 0.198 0.694 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.068 0.425 1.671 7.474 0.230 0.845 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 219002 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 219003 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 219004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 219005 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 219006 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 219007 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 219008 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 219009 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 219010 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 219011 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 219013 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 219014 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.998 0.223 -0.306 4.482 0.197 0.340 2 219002 1894 1975 82 0.997 0.184 0.072 4.562 0.137 0.544 3 219003 1898 1975 78 0.999 0.207 0.032 2.983 0.182 0.392 4 219004 1882 1975 94 0.997 0.248 -0.028 2.457 0.229 0.343 5 219005 1928 1975 48 0.996 0.183 -0.520 5.654 0.165 0.226 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.984 0.281 0.420 3.301 0.222 0.520 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.995 0.243 0.533 3.196 0.179 0.585 8 219008 1893 1975 83 0.975 0.346 -0.129 3.019 0.185 0.809 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.997 0.158 -0.366 2.723 0.128 0.396 10 219010 1903 1975 73 0.994 0.250 0.120 2.639 0.187 0.620 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.231 0.053 3.714 0.176 0.525 12 219013 1840 1975 136 0.996 0.270 0.522 3.383 0.185 0.590 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.995 0.279 0.086 4.036 0.201 0.543 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 0.994 0.239 0.038 3.550 0.183 0.495 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.007 0.050 0.324 0.918 0.028 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.996 0.243 0.053 3.301 0.185 0.525 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.002 0.063 0.249 1.053 0.021 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.975 0.158 -0.520 2.457 0.128 0.226 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.995 0.207 -0.129 2.983 0.176 0.392 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.997 0.270 0.120 4.036 0.197 0.585 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 0.999 0.346 0.533 5.654 0.229 0.809 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.245 0.171 0.019 0.068 2.879 -0.204 0.617 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.204 SERIES 219002 AND 219008 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.617 SERIES 219003 AND 219005 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.293 0.248 0.253 SDEV 0.261 0.203 0.215 SERR 0.082 0.034 0.026 EPS 0.780 0.796 0.815 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.989 0.143 -0.264 3.058 0.131 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.083 0.057 0.136 30 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.33 1.02 1.21 2.53 4.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.311 0.133 -0.021 -0.036 -0.037 -0.020 0.007 -0.019 -0.131 -0.113 PACF 0.311 0.040 -0.081 -0.015 -0.011 -0.003 0.016 -0.030 -0.137 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.171 0.187 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.193 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.100 0.315 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.291 0.023 -0.027 -0.075 -0.068 -0.041 -0.039 -0.032 -0.099 -0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.291 2 0.311 -0.068 3 0.310 -0.063 -0.016 4 0.309 -0.067 0.005 -0.067 5 0.307 -0.067 0.003 -0.057 -0.030 6 0.306 -0.068 0.003 -0.058 -0.025 -0.017 7 0.306 -0.069 0.001 -0.058 -0.027 -0.008 -0.030 8 0.305 -0.069 0.000 -0.060 -0.027 -0.009 -0.024 -0.020 9 0.303 -0.071 -0.001 -0.062 -0.033 -0.009 -0.031 0.011 -0.102 10 0.301 -0.071 -0.001 -0.063 -0.034 -0.011 -0.031 0.009 -0.094 -0.026 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 742.07 732.01 733.38 735.35 736.74 738.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 740.58 742.45 744.40 744.99 746.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.291 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.291 0.085 0.025 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 219001 1 0.169 0.342 2 219002 1 0.296 0.544 3 219003 1 0.156 0.395 4 219004 1 0.196 0.346 5 219005 1 0.053 0.229 6 219006 1 0.287 0.523 7 219007 1 0.352 0.593 8 219008 1 0.663 0.813 9 219009 1 0.163 0.404 10 219010 1 0.386 0.621 11 219011 1 0.279 0.528 12 219013 1 0.372 0.598 13 219014 1 0.300 0.547 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.283 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.151 0.153 MEDIAN 1 0.287 0.528 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.183 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.053 0.229 LOWER HINGE 1 0.169 0.395 UPPER HINGE 1 0.352 0.593 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.663 0.813 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.209 -0.530 6.145 0.225 0.081 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.155 -0.441 4.446 0.177 0.001 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.191 -0.030 3.375 0.217 -0.002 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.232 0.009 2.838 0.276 -0.102 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.178 -0.759 7.297 0.184 0.005 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.240 0.464 3.931 0.267 -0.069 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.195 -0.055 3.168 0.224 -0.014 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.201 -0.399 3.893 0.230 -0.043 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.144 -0.577 3.601 0.149 -0.005 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.196 -0.129 3.312 0.238 -0.019 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.196 -0.658 4.973 0.220 -0.013 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.216 0.272 3.635 0.241 -0.080 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.003 0.217 -0.729 6.155 0.240 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.198 -0.274 4.367 0.222 -0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.001 0.027 0.392 1.376 0.035 0.046 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.196 -0.399 3.893 0.225 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.026 0.547 1.598 0.023 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.144 -0.759 2.838 0.149 -0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.191 -0.577 3.375 0.217 -0.043 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.216 -0.030 4.973 0.240 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.003 0.240 0.464 7.297 0.276 0.081 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.359 0.118 0.013 -0.101 3.145 0.024 0.637 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.024 SERIES 219001 AND 219008 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.637 SERIES 219003 AND 219005 48 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.390 0.378 0.403 SDEV 0.125 0.126 0.129 SERR 0.040 0.021 0.016 EPS 0.845 0.878 0.897 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.997 0.135 -0.412 4.434 0.157 -0.166 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.042 0.022 0.118 24 112 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.51 1.00 1.08 2.59 14.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.165 0.018 -0.055 -0.044 -0.003 0.000 0.031 0.029 -0.106 -0.036 PACF -0.165 -0.010 -0.055 -0.064 -0.022 -0.008 0.024 0.035 -0.100 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.171 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.179 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 -0.166 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.021 -0.061 -0.055 -0.011 0.005 0.039 0.017 -0.113 -0.078 PACF -0.002 -0.021 -0.061 -0.056 -0.014 -0.001 0.032 0.013 -0.113 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.175 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.998 0.138 -0.278 3.102 0.129 0.273 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.271 0.033 -0.056 -0.064 -0.025 0.009 0.035 -0.016 -0.142 -0.158 PACF 0.271 -0.044 -0.057 -0.035 0.002 0.013 0.026 -0.040 -0.138 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.171 0.184 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.185 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.077 0.275 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES