RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit103l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit103l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 219 1 Rigi Staffel SZ WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 219 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1600 4703-829 1840 1975 - 219 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.533 0.264 1.401 4.923 0.391 0.519 2 219002 1894 1975 82 0.444 0.140 -0.223 2.683 0.309 0.324 3 219003 1898 1975 78 0.375 0.193 1.898 5.575 0.254 0.760 4 219004 1882 1975 94 0.227 0.118 2.223 8.868 0.278 0.456 5 219005 1928 1975 48 0.181 0.086 1.957 7.972 0.344 0.540 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.177 0.095 1.606 5.652 0.312 0.650 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.299 0.177 1.836 7.668 0.360 0.655 8 219008 1893 1975 83 0.333 0.148 0.033 2.428 0.341 0.603 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.319 0.081 0.443 2.858 0.267 0.160 10 219010 1903 1975 73 0.364 0.147 1.091 3.808 0.306 0.478 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.207 0.114 1.535 6.083 0.447 0.329 12 219013 1840 1975 136 0.196 0.118 1.156 3.857 0.424 0.671 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.282 0.125 0.370 3.019 0.334 0.565 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1840 TO 1975 136 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 0.303 0.139 1.179 5.030 0.336 0.516 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.108 0.050 0.790 2.161 0.058 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.299 0.125 1.401 4.923 0.334 0.540 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.157 0.035 1.393 3.064 0.054 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.177 0.081 -0.223 2.428 0.254 0.160 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.207 0.114 0.443 3.019 0.306 0.456 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.364 0.148 1.836 6.083 0.360 0.650 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 0.533 0.264 2.223 8.868 0.447 0.760 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.316 0.187 0.021 0.041 3.084 -0.184 0.769 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.184 SERIES 219001 AND 219008 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.769 SERIES 219004 AND 219006 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.449 0.292 0.218 SDEV 0.135 0.205 0.223 SERR 0.043 0.034 0.027 EPS 0.875 0.830 0.783 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.292 0.083 0.746 3.749 0.251 0.370 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.167 0.125 0.094 34 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.85 2.31 1.03 1.27 3.58 9.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 34. 48. 73. 107. 136. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.368 0.335 0.295 0.258 0.253 0.269 0.369 0.224 0.151 0.214 PACF 0.368 0.231 0.141 0.086 0.086 0.106 0.219 -0.032 -0.091 0.063 95% C.L. 0.171 0.193 0.210 0.221 0.230 0.238 0.247 0.263 0.268 0.271 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.216 0.243 0.196 0.156 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00351421 0.66090769 2 219002 1 0.49730015 0.00863525 0.00000000 0.08920935 3 219003 1 0.81734586 0.10883788 0.00000000 0.28375685 4 219004 1 0.39224055 0.05418859 0.00000000 0.15297215 5 219005 1 0.42094022 0.30727226 0.00000000 0.15624557 6 219006 1 0.27721310 0.01557376 0.00000000 0.04990718 7 219007 1 0.61316484 0.07907727 0.00000000 0.22769846 8 219008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008249 0.32978842 9 219009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019594 0.31414369 10 219010 1 0.21566467 0.03378201 0.00000000 0.28515548 11 219011 1 0.23948595 0.04421456 0.00000000 0.15793681 12 219013 1 0.33380452 0.01431219 0.00000000 0.05001132 13 219014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232357 0.43265989 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.997 0.468 1.525 5.616 0.385 0.507 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.290 0.366 5.438 0.306 -0.004 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.001 0.279 0.930 3.731 0.252 0.268 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.254 0.052 2.683 0.276 0.031 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.338 0.447 2.407 0.333 0.121 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.003 0.355 0.939 3.928 0.310 0.378 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.456 1.711 7.439 0.357 0.459 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.444 0.030 2.437 0.337 0.594 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.252 0.474 2.932 0.262 0.152 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.376 1.402 6.074 0.302 0.374 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.444 1.026 5.727 0.443 0.151 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.002 0.434 0.682 4.723 0.421 0.241 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.994 0.336 0.659 4.915 0.332 0.228 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.364 0.788 4.465 0.332 0.269 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.080 0.533 1.588 0.058 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.355 0.682 4.723 0.332 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.001 0.154 0.579 2.683 0.055 0.227 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.994 0.252 0.030 2.407 0.252 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.290 0.447 2.932 0.302 0.151 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.444 1.026 5.616 0.357 0.378 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.003 0.468 1.711 7.439 0.443 0.594 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 219002 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 219003 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 219004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 219005 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 219006 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 219007 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 219008 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 219009 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 219010 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 219011 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 219013 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 219014 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.992 0.385 0.950 4.358 0.382 0.262 2 219002 1894 1975 82 0.999 0.283 0.240 5.233 0.306 -0.024 3 219003 1898 1975 78 0.998 0.258 0.878 3.361 0.251 0.162 4 219004 1882 1975 94 0.999 0.240 0.013 2.567 0.276 -0.077 5 219005 1928 1975 48 0.994 0.312 0.419 2.592 0.333 0.006 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.994 0.314 0.880 3.856 0.310 0.229 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.994 0.398 1.229 5.348 0.357 0.315 8 219008 1893 1975 83 0.987 0.381 0.351 3.472 0.339 0.377 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.997 0.236 0.390 2.740 0.261 0.057 10 219010 1903 1975 73 0.994 0.325 0.727 3.219 0.302 0.263 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.998 0.429 0.820 4.947 0.443 0.115 12 219013 1840 1975 136 0.997 0.419 0.771 6.022 0.421 0.189 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.997 0.325 0.809 6.144 0.332 0.125 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 0.996 0.331 0.652 4.143 0.332 0.154 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.003 0.066 0.340 1.282 0.058 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.997 0.325 0.771 3.856 0.332 0.162 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.004 0.102 0.487 2.014 0.055 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.987 0.236 0.013 2.567 0.251 -0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.994 0.283 0.390 3.219 0.302 0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.998 0.385 0.878 5.233 0.357 0.262 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 0.999 0.429 1.229 6.144 0.443 0.377 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.274 0.130 0.015 0.058 2.211 0.041 0.556 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.041 SERIES 219007 AND 219008 83 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.556 SERIES 219004 AND 219006 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.311 0.212 0.284 SDEV 0.159 0.168 0.174 SERR 0.050 0.028 0.021 EPS 0.794 0.761 0.837 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.974 0.199 0.144 2.764 0.239 -0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.212 0.165 0.086 22 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 2.40 1.02 1.16 3.56 60.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.032 0.138 0.005 -0.070 -0.141 -0.058 0.015 -0.063 -0.089 0.031 PACF -0.032 0.137 0.013 -0.090 -0.152 -0.047 0.058 -0.048 -0.134 0.006 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.182 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.041 0.179 -0.088 -0.084 -0.189 -0.012 -0.095 -0.079 0.035 0.124 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.041 2 -0.034 0.177 3 -0.020 0.175 -0.077 4 -0.030 0.196 -0.079 -0.125 5 -0.052 0.183 -0.045 -0.130 -0.174 6 -0.051 0.183 -0.045 -0.131 -0.174 0.006 7 -0.050 0.175 -0.051 -0.134 -0.165 0.004 -0.050 8 -0.057 0.175 -0.073 -0.151 -0.172 0.027 -0.056 -0.131 9 -0.055 0.176 -0.073 -0.149 -0.170 0.028 -0.058 -0.131 0.011 10 -0.057 0.193 -0.066 -0.153 -0.147 0.048 -0.048 -0.154 0.019 0.134 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 844.17 845.94 843.60 844.79 844.65 842.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 844.46 846.12 845.76 847.74 847.28 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.034 0.177 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.034 0.178 -0.012 0.032 -0.003 0.006 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 219001 2 0.088 0.265 -0.012 2 219002 2 0.103 -0.018 0.276 3 219003 2 0.164 0.120 0.260 4 219004 2 0.023 -0.068 0.125 5 219005 2 0.083 0.005 0.284 6 219006 2 0.064 0.210 0.093 7 219007 2 0.164 0.233 0.265 8 219008 2 0.288 0.240 0.366 9 219009 2 0.068 0.051 0.151 10 219010 2 0.075 0.275 -0.022 11 219011 2 0.021 0.115 0.003 12 219013 2 0.076 0.151 0.200 13 219014 2 0.077 0.101 0.196 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.099 0.129 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.071 0.113 0.125 MEDIAN 2 0.077 0.120 0.196 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.035 0.181 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.021 -0.068 -0.022 LOWER HINGE 2 0.068 0.051 0.093 UPPER HINGE 2 0.103 0.233 0.265 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.288 0.275 0.366 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.372 0.770 3.959 0.428 -0.002 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.272 0.057 5.187 0.294 0.041 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.246 0.800 3.586 0.251 0.074 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.237 -0.049 2.483 0.270 0.007 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.299 0.408 2.816 0.322 0.003 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.304 0.846 3.490 0.335 0.006 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.364 0.967 5.320 0.381 -0.004 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.328 0.428 3.256 0.330 0.072 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.232 0.430 2.798 0.262 0.027 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.312 0.787 3.445 0.325 -0.004 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.001 0.424 0.877 5.139 0.460 0.002 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.403 0.818 6.506 0.440 -0.004 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.316 0.916 6.263 0.346 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.316 0.620 4.173 0.342 0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.062 0.333 1.351 0.068 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.312 0.787 3.586 0.330 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.092 0.417 1.931 0.087 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.232 -0.049 2.483 0.251 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.272 0.428 3.256 0.294 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.364 0.846 5.187 0.381 0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.001 0.424 0.967 6.506 0.460 0.074 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.299 0.113 0.013 0.042 1.973 0.067 0.510 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.067 SERIES 219002 AND 219013 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.510 SERIES 219004 AND 219006 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.330 0.232 0.316 SDEV 0.152 0.137 0.135 SERR 0.048 0.023 0.017 EPS 0.808 0.782 0.857 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.979 0.199 0.153 2.741 0.251 -0.157 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.165 0.117 0.114 21 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 1.22 1.06 1.31 2.53 10.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.156 0.005 0.015 -0.095 -0.141 0.016 0.077 -0.100 -0.043 0.062 PACF -0.156 -0.020 0.013 -0.093 -0.176 -0.040 0.077 -0.089 -0.118 0.009 95% C.L. 0.171 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.180 0.181 0.181 0.183 0.183 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.156 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.122 -0.159 0.002 0.064 -0.099 -0.052 0.041 PACF 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.122 -0.161 -0.001 0.065 -0.118 -0.101 0.017 95% C.L. 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.179 0.180 0.181 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.979 0.199 0.128 2.714 0.237 -0.046 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.046 0.159 -0.041 -0.085 -0.152 -0.024 0.026 -0.089 -0.061 0.031 PACF -0.046 0.157 -0.029 -0.116 -0.154 -0.006 0.073 -0.104 -0.130 0.033 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.176 0.176 0.178 0.181 0.181 0.182 0.183 0.183 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.09 MINUTES