RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit103p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit103p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 219 1 Rigi Staffel SZ LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 219 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1600 4703-829 1840 1975 - 219 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 2.023 0.865 1.926 10.587 0.342 0.288 2 219002 1894 1975 82 2.134 0.595 0.709 7.577 0.278 0.050 3 219003 1898 1975 78 2.049 0.441 0.259 2.228 0.228 0.129 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.591 0.550 1.042 4.193 0.331 0.061 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.388 0.708 1.641 5.422 0.325 0.581 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.413 0.441 0.862 3.848 0.266 0.372 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.617 0.585 0.461 3.475 0.334 0.266 8 219008 1893 1975 83 2.323 0.779 0.638 3.938 0.291 0.371 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.455 0.353 1.089 4.708 0.213 0.183 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.965 0.550 1.204 6.419 0.253 0.359 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.260 0.578 0.426 2.964 0.420 0.445 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.553 0.621 0.872 5.883 0.392 0.150 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.839 0.780 5.481 48.938 0.325 0.032 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1840 TO 1975 136 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.739 0.604 1.278 8.475 0.308 0.253 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.335 0.148 1.349 12.355 0.061 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.617 0.585 0.872 4.708 0.325 0.266 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.568 0.158 0.566 2.572 0.068 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.260 0.353 0.259 2.228 0.213 0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.455 0.550 0.638 3.848 0.266 0.129 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 2.023 0.708 1.204 6.419 0.334 0.371 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 2.323 0.865 5.481 48.938 0.420 0.581 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.186 0.159 0.018 -0.136 3.042 -0.246 0.557 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 219004 AND 219005 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.557 SERIES 219004 AND 219009 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.289 0.205 0.209 SDEV 0.183 0.173 0.147 SERR 0.058 0.029 0.018 EPS 0.777 0.754 0.774 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 1.616 0.340 0.043 2.693 0.202 0.230 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.230 0.135 24 112 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 3.12 1.00 1.09 4.21 8.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 34. 48. 73. 107. 136. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.228 0.216 0.131 0.140 0.193 0.243 0.246 0.160 0.241 0.232 PACF 0.228 0.173 0.055 0.075 0.134 0.163 0.136 0.024 0.141 0.123 95% C.L. 0.171 0.180 0.188 0.190 0.193 0.199 0.207 0.216 0.219 0.227 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.085 0.190 0.176 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00469580 1.85138106 2 219002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00821421 1.79289067 3 219003 1 0.85658133 0.02974128 0.00000000 1.72095799 4 219004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00604906 1.30373371 5 219005 1 2.24922490 0.13083245 0.00000000 1.05309844 6 219006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402149 1.17758775 7 219007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00802897 2.03853989 8 219008 1 1.14601600 0.09772741 0.00000000 2.18904185 9 219009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00750282 1.25195205 10 219010 1 0.72791445 0.04489553 0.00000000 1.75556672 11 219011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01118390 0.65644330 12 219013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00410417 1.27232027 13 219014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022115 1.82492733 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.443 2.501 13.832 0.337 0.271 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.256 0.374 7.905 0.275 -0.033 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.190 0.363 3.133 0.225 -0.115 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.001 0.351 1.918 8.684 0.327 -0.085 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.001 0.408 2.616 11.892 0.318 0.294 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.999 0.295 0.869 3.817 0.264 0.316 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.998 0.335 0.591 3.366 0.331 0.137 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.329 0.951 5.140 0.287 0.331 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.239 2.022 10.242 0.209 0.037 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.255 0.629 4.406 0.249 0.222 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.378 0.126 3.214 0.416 0.109 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.375 0.604 5.701 0.390 0.115 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.422 5.415 48.220 0.323 0.032 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.329 1.460 9.966 0.304 0.126 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.001 0.078 1.459 12.021 0.060 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.335 0.869 5.701 0.318 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.001 0.122 1.431 6.425 0.067 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.998 0.190 0.126 3.133 0.209 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.256 0.591 3.817 0.264 0.032 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.378 2.022 10.242 0.331 0.271 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.001 0.443 5.415 48.220 0.416 0.331 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 219002 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 219003 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 219004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 219005 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 219006 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 219007 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 219008 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 219009 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 219010 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 219011 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 219013 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 219014 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.995 0.418 2.963 17.449 0.337 0.165 2 219002 1894 1975 82 0.999 0.248 0.155 6.791 0.274 -0.139 3 219003 1898 1975 78 0.999 0.185 0.346 3.135 0.225 -0.180 4 219004 1882 1975 94 0.997 0.305 1.093 5.343 0.326 -0.146 5 219005 1928 1975 48 0.992 0.343 2.007 8.547 0.317 0.133 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.998 0.264 0.705 3.313 0.264 0.154 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.997 0.305 0.661 4.270 0.331 -0.013 8 219008 1893 1975 83 0.997 0.300 0.539 4.356 0.287 0.250 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.998 0.202 0.756 3.930 0.208 -0.016 10 219010 1903 1975 73 0.999 0.251 0.631 4.343 0.249 0.198 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.998 0.368 0.038 3.129 0.416 0.066 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.374 0.701 6.577 0.390 0.106 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.999 0.414 5.465 49.111 0.323 0.017 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 0.998 0.306 1.235 9.253 0.304 0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.075 1.496 12.571 0.061 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.998 0.305 0.701 4.356 0.317 0.066 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.002 0.116 0.554 2.861 0.067 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.992 0.185 0.038 3.129 0.208 -0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.997 0.251 0.539 3.930 0.264 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.999 0.368 1.093 6.791 0.331 0.154 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.000 0.418 5.465 49.111 0.416 0.250 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.256 0.133 0.015 0.304 2.475 0.023 0.565 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.023 SERIES 219005 AND 219014 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.565 SERIES 219003 AND 219009 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.257 0.237 0.269 SDEV 0.204 0.167 0.135 SERR 0.064 0.028 0.017 EPS 0.747 0.786 0.826 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.982 0.181 0.073 3.576 0.209 -0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.044 0.030 0.180 31 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.38 2.18 1.02 1.35 3.53 13.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.046 0.006 -0.070 -0.102 -0.034 -0.020 0.040 -0.119 0.024 -0.010 PACF -0.046 0.004 -0.069 -0.109 -0.045 -0.029 0.023 -0.136 -0.002 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.177 0.177 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.114 -0.029 -0.100 -0.012 -0.034 0.009 -0.096 -0.146 0.003 0.107 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.114 2 -0.119 -0.043 3 -0.123 -0.056 -0.109 4 -0.128 -0.058 -0.114 -0.040 5 -0.130 -0.064 -0.117 -0.046 -0.050 6 -0.130 -0.065 -0.119 -0.047 -0.052 -0.016 7 -0.132 -0.070 -0.124 -0.060 -0.059 -0.030 -0.110 8 -0.153 -0.076 -0.136 -0.072 -0.083 -0.044 -0.135 -0.191 9 -0.165 -0.085 -0.139 -0.077 -0.088 -0.052 -0.140 -0.201 -0.064 10 -0.162 -0.074 -0.131 -0.074 -0.083 -0.048 -0.132 -0.196 -0.055 0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 807.93 808.16 809.91 810.27 812.05 813.71 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 815.67 816.02 812.98 814.41 815.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 219001 0 0.027 2 219002 0 0.020 3 219003 0 0.033 4 219004 0 0.022 5 219005 0 0.020 6 219006 0 0.024 7 219007 0 0.000 8 219008 0 0.063 9 219009 0 0.000 10 219010 0 0.042 11 219011 0 0.004 12 219013 0 0.011 13 219014 0 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.018 MEDIAN 0 0.020 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.063 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.418 2.963 17.449 0.335 0.165 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.248 0.155 6.791 0.274 -0.139 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.185 0.346 3.135 0.225 -0.180 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.305 1.093 5.343 0.325 -0.146 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.343 2.007 8.547 0.314 0.133 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.264 0.705 3.313 0.263 0.154 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.305 0.661 4.270 0.330 -0.013 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.300 0.539 4.356 0.286 0.250 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.202 0.756 3.930 0.208 -0.016 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.251 0.631 4.343 0.249 0.198 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.368 0.038 3.129 0.415 0.066 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.374 0.701 6.577 0.390 0.106 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.414 5.465 49.111 0.322 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.306 1.235 9.253 0.303 0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.075 1.496 12.571 0.060 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.305 0.701 4.356 0.314 0.066 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.116 0.554 2.861 0.066 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.185 0.038 3.129 0.208 -0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.251 0.539 3.930 0.263 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.368 1.093 6.791 0.330 0.154 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.000 0.418 5.465 49.111 0.415 0.250 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.256 0.133 0.015 0.304 2.475 0.023 0.565 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.023 SERIES 219005 AND 219014 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.565 SERIES 219003 AND 219009 53 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.257 0.237 0.269 SDEV 0.204 0.167 0.135 SERR 0.064 0.028 0.017 EPS 0.747 0.786 0.826 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.984 0.181 0.075 3.577 0.209 -0.048 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.043 0.029 0.181 32 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.33 2.34 1.01 1.26 3.60 13.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.17 0.00 0.83 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.047 0.006 -0.070 -0.102 -0.035 -0.018 0.040 -0.119 0.025 -0.010 PACF -0.047 0.004 -0.070 -0.109 -0.046 -0.028 0.022 -0.136 -0.002 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.177 0.177 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.984 0.181 0.075 3.577 0.209 -0.048 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.047 0.006 -0.070 -0.102 -0.035 -0.018 0.040 -0.119 0.025 -0.010 PACF -0.047 0.004 -0.070 -0.109 -0.046 -0.028 0.022 -0.136 -0.002 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.177 0.177 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES