RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit103x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit103x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 219 1 Rigi Staffel SZ DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 219 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1600 4703-829 1840 1975 - 219 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.777 0.096 -1.192 4.315 0.142 -0.084 2 219002 1894 1975 82 0.774 0.088 -0.964 3.681 0.135 -0.124 3 219003 1898 1975 78 0.854 0.086 -1.299 5.791 0.103 0.122 4 219004 1882 1975 94 0.755 0.082 -0.692 4.253 0.102 0.199 5 219005 1928 1975 48 0.720 0.138 0.259 2.505 0.203 0.195 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.710 0.087 -0.577 3.038 0.110 0.360 7 219007 1872 1975 104 0.730 0.094 -0.761 4.300 0.128 0.077 8 219008 1893 1975 83 0.772 0.086 -1.375 5.270 0.106 0.145 9 219009 1923 1975 53 0.842 0.074 -0.535 3.805 0.092 0.013 10 219010 1903 1975 73 0.833 0.079 -0.874 4.891 0.098 0.023 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.680 0.098 -0.463 3.256 0.154 0.095 12 219013 1840 1975 136 0.671 0.111 -0.459 3.459 0.185 0.020 13 219014 1847 1975 129 0.742 0.102 -0.678 3.626 0.156 0.030 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1840 TO 1975 136 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 0.759 0.094 -0.739 4.015 0.132 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.059 0.017 0.430 0.920 0.035 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 0.755 0.088 -0.692 3.805 0.128 0.077 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.057 0.012 0.429 0.856 0.051 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.671 0.074 -1.375 2.505 0.092 -0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 0.720 0.086 -0.964 3.459 0.103 0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 0.777 0.098 -0.535 4.315 0.154 0.145 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 0.854 0.138 0.259 5.791 0.203 0.360 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.523 0.176 0.020 -0.557 2.754 0.094 0.813 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.094 SERIES 219005 AND 219006 48 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.813 SERIES 219013 AND 219014 129 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.621 0.523 0.494 SDEV 0.166 0.185 0.203 SERR 0.052 0.031 0.025 EPS 0.933 0.929 0.927 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 0.742 0.071 -0.771 4.243 0.107 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.100 -0.050 0.119 16 120 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 2.99 1.02 1.09 4.08 42.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 83. 34. 48. 73. 107. 136. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 0.139 0.106 0.057 0.036 0.066 0.020 -0.098 0.087 0.077 PACF -0.022 0.139 0.113 0.045 0.009 0.043 0.007 -0.123 0.064 0.110 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.180 0.181 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026433 0.78687012 2 219002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029223 0.78615177 3 219003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039024 0.86951715 4 219004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011531 0.74984217 5 219005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00585432 0.86343086 6 219006 1 0.18371306 0.01028644 0.00000000 0.60371149 7 219007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106177 0.78535849 8 219008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034276 0.75765210 9 219009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019432 0.83664006 10 219010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012156 0.82824200 11 219011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035679 0.66045320 12 219013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005706 0.67508495 13 219014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076286 0.79198885 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.124 -1.165 4.239 0.140 -0.083 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.113 -0.935 3.504 0.133 -0.124 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.100 -1.246 5.751 0.101 0.114 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.108 -0.717 4.210 0.101 0.197 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.156 0.256 2.589 0.199 -0.274 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.113 -0.482 3.513 0.109 0.207 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.122 -0.837 4.346 0.127 -0.024 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.111 -1.345 5.214 0.105 0.134 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.087 -0.567 3.851 0.090 0.010 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.095 -0.868 4.896 0.097 0.022 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.143 -0.500 3.233 0.153 0.083 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.166 -0.432 3.447 0.183 0.019 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.132 -0.712 3.908 0.155 -0.051 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.121 -0.735 4.054 0.130 0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.023 0.419 0.862 0.034 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.113 -0.717 3.908 0.127 0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.024 0.435 0.842 0.051 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.087 -1.345 2.589 0.090 -0.274 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.108 -0.935 3.504 0.101 -0.051 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.132 -0.500 4.346 0.153 0.114 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.000 0.166 0.256 5.751 0.199 0.207 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219001 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 219002 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 219003 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 219004 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 219005 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 219006 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 219007 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 219008 -67 55 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 219009 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 219010 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 219011 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 219013 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 219014 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 0.999 0.113 -0.624 4.483 0.140 -0.406 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.110 -0.619 3.135 0.133 -0.219 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.093 -1.272 5.577 0.101 -0.072 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.102 -0.654 4.253 0.101 0.087 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.152 0.210 2.599 0.199 -0.318 6 219006 1860 1975 116 0.999 0.106 -0.316 3.508 0.109 0.092 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.114 -0.863 5.283 0.127 -0.204 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.106 -1.248 5.395 0.105 0.040 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.082 -0.531 3.442 0.091 -0.120 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.092 -0.783 4.893 0.097 -0.072 11 219011 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.136 -0.564 3.344 0.153 -0.021 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.162 -0.487 3.435 0.183 -0.040 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.130 -0.740 3.886 0.155 -0.099 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.115 -0.653 4.095 0.130 -0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.024 0.378 0.961 0.034 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.110 -0.624 3.886 0.127 -0.072 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.028 0.252 1.458 0.051 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 48 0.999 0.082 -1.272 2.599 0.091 -0.406 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.102 -0.783 3.435 0.101 -0.204 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.130 -0.531 4.893 0.153 -0.021 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.000 0.162 0.210 5.577 0.199 0.092 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.559 0.143 0.016 -0.343 2.827 0.190 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.190 SERIES 219002 AND 219006 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 219013 AND 219014 129 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.624 0.541 0.519 SDEV 0.173 0.179 0.175 SERR 0.055 0.030 0.021 EPS 0.934 0.933 0.933 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 1.001 0.091 -0.895 4.863 0.108 -0.145 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.094 -0.036 0.103 24 112 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.76 1.03 1.08 1.84 12.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.144 0.050 0.024 -0.061 -0.104 -0.041 -0.104 -0.181 0.058 0.012 PACF -0.144 0.030 0.036 -0.055 -0.126 -0.071 -0.111 -0.219 -0.015 0.015 95% C.L. 0.171 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.178 0.178 0.180 0.185 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.195 0.180 0.043 -0.057 -0.114 -0.065 -0.066 -0.153 0.023 0.010 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.195 2 -0.166 0.148 3 -0.182 0.166 0.108 4 -0.175 0.176 0.097 -0.062 5 -0.186 0.193 0.128 -0.092 -0.173 6 -0.205 0.183 0.141 -0.071 -0.194 -0.109 7 -0.209 0.176 0.139 -0.066 -0.187 -0.116 -0.038 8 -0.214 0.160 0.113 -0.075 -0.168 -0.092 -0.067 -0.138 9 -0.217 0.158 0.111 -0.079 -0.169 -0.089 -0.063 -0.143 -0.024 10 -0.216 0.165 0.114 -0.075 -0.161 -0.086 -0.068 -0.150 -0.014 0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 640.14 636.89 635.87 636.27 637.74 635.59 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 635.97 637.78 637.17 639.10 640.80 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.166 0.148 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.90 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.166 0.176 -0.054 0.035 -0.014 0.007 -0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 219001 2 0.166 -0.395 0.030 2 219002 2 0.056 -0.224 -0.002 3 219003 2 0.018 -0.064 0.108 4 219004 2 0.032 0.075 0.155 5 219005 2 0.172 -0.239 0.265 6 219006 2 0.060 0.073 0.224 7 219007 2 0.053 -0.207 -0.004 8 219008 2 0.055 0.031 0.231 9 219009 2 0.018 -0.129 -0.054 10 219010 2 0.085 -0.052 0.279 11 219011 2 0.038 -0.019 0.095 12 219013 2 0.026 -0.035 0.137 13 219014 2 0.034 -0.094 0.050 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.062 -0.098 0.116 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.051 0.137 0.110 MEDIAN 2 0.053 -0.064 0.108 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.028 0.188 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.018 -0.395 -0.054 LOWER HINGE 2 0.032 -0.207 0.030 UPPER HINGE 2 0.060 -0.019 0.224 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.172 0.075 0.279 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219001 1904 1975 72 1.000 0.103 -0.568 4.042 0.108 0.001 2 219002 1894 1975 82 1.000 0.107 -0.736 2.895 0.117 -0.003 3 219003 1898 1975 78 1.000 0.092 -1.222 5.256 0.098 0.003 4 219004 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.100 -0.649 4.559 0.107 -0.002 5 219005 1928 1975 48 1.000 0.139 0.282 3.014 0.156 -0.027 6 219006 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.103 -0.270 3.868 0.113 0.007 7 219007 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.111 -0.754 4.319 0.115 0.002 8 219008 1893 1975 83 1.000 0.103 -1.199 5.471 0.105 -0.003 9 219009 1923 1975 53 1.000 0.082 -0.525 3.171 0.084 0.003 10 219010 1903 1975 73 1.000 0.088 -0.825 4.460 0.097 -0.010 11 219011 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.136 -0.564 3.309 0.152 -0.015 12 219013 1840 1975 136 1.000 0.160 -0.460 3.189 0.182 -0.011 13 219014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.129 -0.688 3.585 0.147 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 90 1.000 0.112 -0.629 3.934 0.122 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.023 0.382 0.843 0.029 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 83 1.000 0.103 -0.649 3.868 0.113 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 34 0.000 0.029 0.228 1.272 0.042 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 48 1.000 0.082 -1.222 2.895 0.084 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 73 1.000 0.100 -0.754 3.189 0.105 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.129 -0.525 4.460 0.147 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 136 1.000 0.160 0.282 5.471 0.182 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.540 0.141 0.016 -0.316 2.910 0.176 0.852 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.176 SERIES 219002 AND 219006 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.852 SERIES 219013 AND 219014 129 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.68 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 10. 36. 66. RBAR 0.604 0.530 0.505 SDEV 0.183 0.182 0.173 SERR 0.058 0.030 0.021 EPS 0.929 0.930 0.930 NSS 8.6 11.8 12.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 1.001 0.090 -0.838 4.307 0.105 -0.069 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.022 0.087 19 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.09 1.02 1.11 2.19 9.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.068 -0.052 0.049 -0.065 -0.108 -0.028 -0.117 -0.181 0.064 0.027 PACF -0.068 -0.057 0.042 -0.062 -0.113 -0.054 -0.134 -0.211 -0.002 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.171 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.176 0.176 0.178 0.184 0.184 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.001 0.031 -0.075 -0.121 -0.060 -0.138 -0.188 0.046 0.024 PACF 0.002 -0.001 0.031 -0.075 -0.121 -0.062 -0.137 -0.199 0.018 0.001 95% C.L. 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.179 0.185 0.185 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1840 1975 136 1.001 0.092 -0.925 5.404 0.109 -0.186 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.185 0.165 -0.030 -0.036 -0.114 -0.055 -0.103 -0.173 0.053 -0.006 PACF -0.185 0.135 0.023 -0.063 -0.137 -0.085 -0.096 -0.208 -0.006 0.034 95% C.L. 0.171 0.177 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.191 0.191 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.053 -0.160 0.136 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES