RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit104e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit104e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 219 1 Rigi Klösterli SZ WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 219 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1400 4702-829 1805 1975 - 219 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219015 1884 1975 92 1.924 0.784 1.063 2.999 0.122 0.852 2 220017 1873 1975 103 1.156 0.462 2.078 6.798 0.146 0.823 3 220018 1866 1975 110 1.480 0.647 0.805 3.024 0.160 0.884 4 220019 1885 1975 91 1.571 0.518 0.283 2.947 0.153 0.792 5 220020 1865 1975 111 1.381 0.446 1.599 6.394 0.141 0.776 6 220021 1855 1975 121 1.498 0.660 1.328 5.426 0.195 0.835 7 220024 1805 1975 171 0.853 0.776 1.335 3.639 0.244 0.947 8 220025 1829 1975 147 0.736 0.259 0.268 2.100 0.196 0.780 9 220026 1854 1975 122 1.397 0.495 0.510 3.339 0.172 0.823 10 220027 1862 1975 114 1.411 0.766 1.412 4.140 0.216 0.851 11 220028 1866 1975 110 1.068 0.715 1.182 3.537 0.276 0.879 12 220029 1871 1975 105 1.689 0.876 1.077 4.002 0.189 0.889 13 220030 1875 1975 101 1.474 0.675 0.679 3.075 0.212 0.806 14 220031 1858 1975 118 1.434 0.934 1.162 3.184 0.210 0.892 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 14 FROM 1805 TO 1975 171 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.362 0.644 1.056 3.900 0.188 0.845 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.316 0.187 0.509 1.371 0.043 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.423 0.668 1.120 3.438 0.192 0.843 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.342 0.280 0.656 1.115 0.059 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.736 0.259 0.268 2.100 0.122 0.776 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.156 0.495 0.679 3.024 0.153 0.806 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 1.498 0.776 1.335 4.140 0.212 0.884 MAXIMUM VALUE 171 1.924 0.934 2.078 6.798 0.276 0.947 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 91 0.566 0.318 0.033 -1.636 5.108 -0.542 0.926 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.542 SERIES 219015 AND 220025 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.926 SERIES 220027 AND 220031 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 91. 91. RBAR -0.016 0.288 0.333 0.357 SDEV 0.000 0.351 0.375 0.356 SERR 0.000 0.111 0.039 0.037 EPS -0.106 0.828 0.875 0.886 NSS 6.1 11.9 14.0 14.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1805 1975 171 1.459 0.549 1.099 4.426 0.137 0.859 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.125 0.374 32 139 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.53 1.01 1.09 1.62 2.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.84 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 110. 18. 91. 103. 121. 171. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.854 0.775 0.697 0.638 0.576 0.537 0.485 0.449 0.417 0.389 PACF 0.854 0.167 0.013 0.038 -0.014 0.055 -0.030 0.020 0.023 0.009 95% C.L. 0.153 0.240 0.293 0.329 0.357 0.378 0.395 0.409 0.421 0.430 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.786 0.638 0.272 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219015 1 2.88269639 0.03186878 0.00000000 1.00809824 2 220017 1 1.82598996 0.06735283 0.00000000 0.90221131 3 220018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01596813 2.36632204 4 220019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01654467 2.33237362 5 220020 1 1.44138658 0.01612158 0.00000000 0.71566951 6 220021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01429176 2.37014461 7 220024 1 2.77088189 0.02156238 0.00000000 0.12853190 8 220025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074228 0.68139780 9 220026 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01148572 2.10374880 10 220027 1 2.73521709 0.03349940 0.00000000 0.72267389 11 220028 1 2.41267657 0.07087298 0.00000000 0.76976192 12 220029 1 2.88404226 0.03403085 0.00000000 0.91758358 13 220030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01951963 2.46956038 14 220031 1 3.33632231 0.02127248 0.00000000 0.22545448 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219015 1884 1975 92 1.000 0.140 0.332 3.498 0.120 0.301 2 220017 1873 1975 103 1.000 0.176 0.415 3.022 0.146 0.438 3 220018 1866 1975 110 1.004 0.257 0.805 4.017 0.158 0.636 4 220019 1885 1975 91 0.997 0.171 -0.090 2.907 0.152 0.378 5 220020 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.190 1.398 7.612 0.139 0.436 6 220021 1855 1975 121 1.006 0.270 1.193 5.331 0.194 0.566 7 220024 1805 1975 171 1.019 0.377 0.711 4.132 0.242 0.602 8 220025 1829 1975 147 1.000 0.347 0.216 2.090 0.195 0.768 9 220026 1854 1975 122 1.002 0.212 0.316 3.387 0.171 0.470 10 220027 1862 1975 114 1.000 0.220 0.157 2.989 0.214 0.253 11 220028 1866 1975 110 1.001 0.482 0.387 2.831 0.276 0.785 12 220029 1871 1975 105 0.998 0.329 0.759 3.362 0.187 0.740 13 220030 1875 1975 101 1.003 0.231 0.815 4.163 0.210 0.274 14 220031 1858 1975 118 1.007 0.263 0.912 4.841 0.208 0.426 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.003 0.262 0.595 3.870 0.187 0.505 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.006 0.094 0.417 1.374 0.043 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.001 0.244 0.563 3.443 0.190 0.454 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.004 0.140 0.499 1.174 0.058 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.997 0.140 -0.090 2.090 0.120 0.253 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.190 0.316 2.989 0.152 0.378 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 1.004 0.329 0.815 4.163 0.210 0.636 MAXIMUM VALUE 171 1.019 0.482 1.398 7.612 0.276 0.785 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 219015 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 220017 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 220018 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 220019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 220020 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 220021 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 220024 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 220025 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 220026 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 220027 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 220028 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 220029 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 220030 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 220031 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219015 1884 1975 92 0.999 0.131 0.300 3.559 0.119 0.215 2 220017 1873 1975 103 0.999 0.171 0.364 2.992 0.146 0.400 3 220018 1866 1975 110 0.994 0.197 0.488 3.542 0.157 0.426 4 220019 1885 1975 91 0.999 0.159 -0.091 2.845 0.152 0.294 5 220020 1865 1975 111 0.998 0.175 1.421 7.592 0.139 0.354 6 220021 1855 1975 121 0.996 0.229 0.861 5.265 0.193 0.444 7 220024 1805 1975 171 0.994 0.333 0.522 3.595 0.242 0.567 8 220025 1829 1975 147 0.986 0.288 0.335 2.518 0.195 0.666 9 220026 1854 1975 122 0.999 0.205 0.194 3.117 0.170 0.446 10 220027 1862 1975 114 0.999 0.213 0.235 2.876 0.214 0.205 11 220028 1866 1975 110 0.985 0.439 0.316 3.022 0.275 0.741 12 220029 1871 1975 105 0.991 0.213 0.031 2.699 0.188 0.407 13 220030 1875 1975 101 0.999 0.223 0.778 4.005 0.210 0.235 14 220031 1858 1975 118 0.996 0.235 0.913 4.726 0.207 0.319 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.995 0.229 0.476 3.739 0.186 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.005 0.079 0.399 1.355 0.042 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 0.997 0.213 0.350 3.329 0.190 0.404 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.005 0.060 0.542 1.129 0.058 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.985 0.131 -0.091 2.518 0.119 0.205 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.994 0.175 0.235 2.876 0.152 0.294 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 0.999 0.235 0.778 4.005 0.210 0.446 MAXIMUM VALUE 171 0.999 0.439 1.421 7.592 0.275 0.741 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 91 0.271 0.169 0.018 -0.594 3.227 -0.231 0.586 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.231 SERIES 220024 AND 220028 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.586 SERIES 220027 AND 220031 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 91. 91. RBAR 0.138 0.180 0.251 0.268 SDEV 0.000 0.220 0.228 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.070 0.024 0.023 EPS 0.495 0.723 0.825 0.837 NSS 6.1 11.9 14.0 14.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1805 1975 171 0.997 0.168 0.706 4.725 0.146 0.326 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.365 0.247 -0.076 63 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.93 1.00 1.13 2.06 9.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.23 0.00 0.77 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.324 0.295 0.227 0.186 0.173 0.156 0.165 0.056 0.008 -0.047 PACF 0.324 0.213 0.097 0.055 0.057 0.044 0.061 -0.073 -0.079 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.153 0.168 0.180 0.187 0.191 0.195 0.197 0.201 0.201 0.201 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.155 0.254 0.218 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.059 0.069 0.059 0.011 0.018 0.084 0.153 0.027 0.021 -0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.059 2 0.056 0.066 3 0.052 0.063 0.051 4 0.052 0.063 0.051 0.001 5 0.052 0.062 0.051 0.000 0.010 6 0.051 0.062 0.047 -0.005 0.006 0.080 7 0.040 0.061 0.047 -0.012 -0.003 0.073 0.144 8 0.040 0.061 0.047 -0.011 -0.003 0.072 0.144 0.001 9 0.040 0.062 0.048 -0.012 -0.003 0.073 0.145 0.002 -0.008 10 0.039 0.063 0.060 -0.005 -0.004 0.072 0.149 0.007 -0.005 -0.084 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 995.71 997.11 998.37 999.92 1001.92 1003.90 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1004.81 1003.20 1005.20 1007.19 1007.98 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 219015 0 0.047 2 220017 0 0.161 3 220018 0 0.184 4 220019 0 0.090 5 220020 0 0.128 6 220021 0 0.199 7 220024 0 0.322 8 220025 0 0.445 9 220026 0 0.200 10 220027 0 0.042 11 220028 0 0.553 12 220029 0 0.167 13 220030 0 0.055 14 220031 0 0.102 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.192 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.151 MEDIAN 0 0.164 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.042 LOWER HINGE 0 0.090 UPPER HINGE 0 0.200 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.553 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 219015 1884 1975 92 1.000 0.131 0.300 3.559 0.119 0.215 2 220017 1873 1975 103 1.000 0.171 0.364 2.992 0.146 0.400 3 220018 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.197 0.488 3.542 0.156 0.426 4 220019 1885 1975 91 1.000 0.159 -0.091 2.845 0.152 0.294 5 220020 1865 1975 111 1.000 0.175 1.421 7.592 0.139 0.354 6 220021 1855 1975 121 1.000 0.229 0.861 5.265 0.192 0.444 7 220024 1805 1975 171 1.000 0.333 0.522 3.595 0.240 0.567 8 220025 1829 1975 147 1.000 0.288 0.335 2.518 0.192 0.666 9 220026 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.205 0.194 3.117 0.170 0.446 10 220027 1862 1975 114 1.000 0.213 0.235 2.876 0.214 0.205 11 220028 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.439 0.316 3.022 0.268 0.741 12 220029 1871 1975 105 1.000 0.213 0.031 2.699 0.186 0.407 13 220030 1875 1975 101 1.000 0.223 0.778 4.005 0.210 0.235 14 220031 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.235 0.913 4.726 0.206 0.319 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.229 0.476 3.739 0.185 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.079 0.399 1.355 0.041 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.213 0.350 3.329 0.189 0.404 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.000 0.060 0.542 1.129 0.058 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.131 -0.091 2.518 0.119 0.205 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.175 0.235 2.876 0.152 0.294 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.235 0.778 4.005 0.210 0.446 MAXIMUM VALUE 171 1.000 0.439 1.421 7.592 0.268 0.741 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 91 0.271 0.169 0.018 -0.594 3.227 -0.231 0.586 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.231 SERIES 220024 AND 220028 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.586 SERIES 220027 AND 220031 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 91. 91. RBAR 0.138 0.180 0.251 0.268 SDEV 0.000 0.220 0.228 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.070 0.024 0.023 EPS 0.495 0.723 0.825 0.837 NSS 6.1 11.9 14.0 14.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1805 1975 171 1.002 0.169 0.708 4.708 0.146 0.332 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.362 0.243 -0.074 63 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.94 1.00 1.12 2.06 10.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.23 0.00 0.77 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.331 0.299 0.229 0.191 0.179 0.159 0.171 0.062 0.013 -0.044 PACF 0.331 0.213 0.095 0.057 0.060 0.043 0.065 -0.072 -0.078 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.153 0.169 0.181 0.187 0.192 0.196 0.199 0.202 0.203 0.203 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.159 0.259 0.218 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1805 1975 171 1.002 0.169 0.708 4.708 0.146 0.332 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.331 0.299 0.229 0.191 0.179 0.159 0.171 0.062 0.013 -0.044 PACF 0.331 0.213 0.095 0.057 0.060 0.043 0.065 -0.072 -0.078 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.153 0.169 0.181 0.187 0.192 0.196 0.199 0.202 0.203 0.203 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.159 0.259 0.218 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.10 MINUTES