RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit106e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit106e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 222 1 Chasseral NE (Süd) WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 222 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1400 4707-705 1845 1975 - 222 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 222017 1857 1975 119 0.853 0.297 0.916 4.184 0.238 0.546 2 222018 1886 1975 90 0.790 0.433 1.243 4.715 0.265 0.747 3 222019 1857 1975 119 1.054 0.835 1.279 3.578 0.286 0.847 4 222020 1879 1975 97 1.423 0.916 1.886 6.831 0.240 0.835 5 222021 1881 1975 95 0.845 0.684 1.642 4.803 0.322 0.856 6 222022 1854 1975 122 1.045 0.673 1.402 3.827 0.264 0.829 7 222023 1845 1975 131 1.126 0.654 1.246 4.013 0.262 0.833 8 222024 1862 1975 114 1.456 0.516 1.456 5.542 0.196 0.730 9 222025 1872 1975 104 1.231 0.331 0.268 3.083 0.200 0.578 10 222026 1873 1975 103 1.552 0.868 1.371 4.506 0.229 0.869 11 222027 1879 1975 97 1.095 0.559 0.908 4.759 0.264 0.783 12 222028 1874 1975 102 1.486 0.830 1.970 6.619 0.170 0.885 13 222029 1878 1975 98 1.470 0.841 0.984 2.910 0.198 0.890 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 13 FROM 1845 TO 1975 131 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.187 0.649 1.275 4.567 0.241 0.787 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.269 0.209 0.448 1.202 0.042 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.126 0.673 1.279 4.506 0.240 0.833 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.411 0.319 0.472 0.976 0.064 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.790 0.297 0.268 2.910 0.170 0.546 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.045 0.516 0.984 3.827 0.200 0.747 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.456 0.835 1.456 4.803 0.264 0.856 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.552 0.916 1.970 6.831 0.322 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.595 0.318 0.036 -1.281 3.574 -0.221 0.921 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.221 SERIES 222021 AND 222025 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.921 SERIES 222019 AND 222026 103 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 28. 78. 78. RBAR 0.601 0.502 0.442 SDEV 0.296 0.246 0.206 SERR 0.056 0.028 0.023 EPS 0.949 0.929 0.911 NSS 12.4 13.0 13.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1845 1975 131 1.332 0.656 1.012 3.268 0.191 0.855 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.354 0.161 0.255 21 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.75 1.00 1.01 1.76 14.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 103. 22. 90. 97. 119. 131. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.848 0.803 0.769 0.739 0.699 0.633 0.585 0.542 0.518 0.471 PACF 0.848 0.297 0.148 0.084 0.001 -0.128 -0.053 -0.020 0.061 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.175 0.273 0.337 0.387 0.428 0.462 0.487 0.508 0.526 0.541 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.795 0.547 0.372 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 222017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00248255 1.00147414 2 222018 1 1.48901165 0.03975770 0.00000000 0.39391840 3 222019 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 222020 1 3.52380967 0.05731064 0.00000000 0.80916572 5 222021 1 2.58094692 0.05399247 0.00000000 0.35824382 6 222022 1 2.16582108 0.02966595 0.00000000 0.47148031 7 222023 1 2.14951015 0.02604815 0.00000000 0.52455819 8 222024 1 1.61795247 0.00949405 0.00000000 0.47263616 9 222025 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00377307 1.03268301 10 222026 1 3.06933928 0.03214276 0.00000000 0.67336762 11 222027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01168578 1.66713917 12 222028 1 3.51694512 0.06558584 0.00000000 0.97844911 13 222029 1 2.98869824 0.02996531 0.00000000 0.52074194 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 222017 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.320 0.386 2.994 0.236 0.540 2 222018 1886 1975 90 0.999 0.308 -0.050 2.880 0.262 0.445 3 222019 1857 1975 119 0.993 0.333 0.135 2.697 0.283 0.485 4 222020 1879 1975 97 0.999 0.278 0.321 2.990 0.237 0.462 5 222021 1881 1975 95 0.999 0.360 0.306 2.685 0.317 0.462 6 222022 1854 1975 122 1.004 0.363 1.163 4.664 0.260 0.672 7 222023 1845 1975 131 1.000 0.340 0.961 4.290 0.258 0.603 8 222024 1862 1975 114 1.000 0.263 0.619 3.367 0.195 0.540 9 222025 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.249 0.054 3.191 0.198 0.485 10 222026 1873 1975 103 1.000 0.228 -0.547 4.380 0.227 0.307 11 222027 1879 1975 97 0.989 0.426 0.980 3.591 0.261 0.725 12 222028 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.211 0.547 4.232 0.167 0.514 13 222029 1878 1975 98 1.002 0.292 0.745 3.554 0.196 0.629 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.999 0.305 0.432 3.501 0.238 0.528 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.004 0.060 0.475 0.684 0.041 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.308 0.386 3.367 0.237 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.001 0.077 0.610 1.242 0.063 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.989 0.211 -0.547 2.685 0.167 0.307 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.999 0.263 0.135 2.990 0.198 0.462 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.340 0.745 4.232 0.261 0.603 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.004 0.426 1.163 4.664 0.317 0.725 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 222017 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 222018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 222019 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 222020 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 222021 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 222022 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 222023 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 222024 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 222025 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 222026 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 222027 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 222028 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 222029 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 222017 1857 1975 119 0.997 0.304 0.486 3.916 0.236 0.460 2 222018 1886 1975 90 0.994 0.247 -0.558 3.327 0.260 0.213 3 222019 1857 1975 119 0.994 0.312 0.001 2.674 0.282 0.408 4 222020 1879 1975 97 0.997 0.266 0.392 3.141 0.236 0.415 5 222021 1881 1975 95 0.992 0.332 0.158 2.548 0.317 0.385 6 222022 1854 1975 122 0.995 0.272 0.312 2.946 0.260 0.410 7 222023 1845 1975 131 0.996 0.307 0.506 3.198 0.258 0.513 8 222024 1862 1975 114 0.999 0.255 0.557 3.180 0.194 0.514 9 222025 1872 1975 104 0.998 0.233 -0.072 3.034 0.198 0.422 10 222026 1873 1975 103 0.999 0.224 -0.621 4.313 0.227 0.280 11 222027 1879 1975 97 0.985 0.308 0.323 2.977 0.262 0.454 12 222028 1874 1975 102 0.999 0.203 0.508 4.353 0.167 0.467 13 222029 1878 1975 98 0.996 0.264 0.538 3.051 0.196 0.560 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 0.996 0.271 0.195 3.281 0.238 0.423 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.004 0.039 0.402 0.569 0.041 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 0.996 0.266 0.323 3.141 0.236 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.003 0.060 0.505 0.350 0.062 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.985 0.203 -0.621 2.548 0.167 0.213 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 0.994 0.247 0.001 2.977 0.198 0.408 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.998 0.307 0.506 3.327 0.260 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 0.999 0.332 0.557 4.353 0.317 0.560 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.495 0.118 0.013 -0.520 2.658 0.210 0.690 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.210 SERIES 222021 AND 222028 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.690 SERIES 222018 AND 222026 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 28. 78. 78. RBAR 0.445 0.551 0.569 SDEV 0.145 0.137 0.120 SERR 0.027 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.909 0.941 0.945 NSS 12.4 13.0 13.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1845 1975 131 0.989 0.197 -0.210 3.143 0.197 0.331 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.248 0.113 0.070 32 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.41 1.01 1.06 1.47 5.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.328 0.158 0.172 0.147 -0.029 -0.168 -0.117 -0.029 -0.138 -0.209 PACF 0.328 0.056 0.117 0.061 -0.127 -0.180 -0.039 0.060 -0.084 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.175 0.193 0.197 0.201 0.204 0.204 0.209 0.211 0.211 0.214 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.113 0.331 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.346 0.097 0.170 0.144 -0.030 -0.236 -0.108 0.007 -0.142 -0.202 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.346 2 0.355 -0.025 3 0.359 -0.083 0.164 4 0.352 -0.080 0.150 0.040 5 0.357 -0.063 0.141 0.079 -0.111 6 0.329 -0.044 0.176 0.064 -0.023 -0.248 7 0.335 -0.043 0.174 0.059 -0.022 -0.257 0.026 8 0.334 -0.027 0.175 0.055 -0.032 -0.254 0.005 0.062 9 0.340 -0.027 0.150 0.052 -0.027 -0.237 0.002 0.095 -0.099 10 0.331 -0.018 0.150 0.032 -0.029 -0.232 0.015 0.093 -0.070 -0.086 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 850.27 835.58 837.49 835.92 837.71 838.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 831.73 833.64 835.13 835.83 836.86 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.346 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.96 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.59 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.346 0.120 0.041 0.014 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 222017 1 0.272 0.491 2 222018 1 0.061 0.218 3 222019 1 0.172 0.411 4 222020 1 0.183 0.420 5 222021 1 0.154 0.389 6 222022 1 0.211 0.413 7 222023 1 0.297 0.514 8 222024 1 0.303 0.519 9 222025 1 0.191 0.437 10 222026 1 0.080 0.280 11 222027 1 0.211 0.459 12 222028 1 0.232 0.470 13 222029 1 0.316 0.561 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.206 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 0.095 MEDIAN 1 0.211 0.437 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.100 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.061 0.218 LOWER HINGE 1 0.172 0.411 UPPER HINGE 1 0.272 0.491 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.316 0.561 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 222017 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.261 0.286 4.337 0.292 -0.118 2 222018 1886 1975 90 1.000 0.241 -0.387 3.167 0.274 0.027 3 222019 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.284 -0.177 2.722 0.337 -0.027 4 222020 1879 1975 97 1.000 0.241 0.439 2.867 0.270 0.040 5 222021 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.306 0.250 3.118 0.371 -0.016 6 222022 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.247 0.255 2.718 0.304 -0.091 7 222023 1845 1975 131 1.000 0.264 0.495 3.136 0.312 -0.109 8 222024 1862 1975 114 1.000 0.218 0.358 3.124 0.247 -0.115 9 222025 1872 1975 104 1.000 0.209 -0.166 2.584 0.226 0.024 10 222026 1873 1975 103 1.000 0.215 -0.481 3.634 0.251 -0.010 11 222027 1879 1975 97 1.000 0.274 0.020 3.381 0.306 0.004 12 222028 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.180 0.152 3.439 0.200 0.059 13 222029 1878 1975 98 1.000 0.218 0.550 3.861 0.250 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 107 1.000 0.243 0.123 3.238 0.280 -0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.000 0.035 0.335 0.496 0.047 0.062 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.241 0.250 3.136 0.274 -0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.046 0.524 0.572 0.056 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.180 -0.481 2.584 0.200 -0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 97 1.000 0.218 -0.166 2.867 0.250 -0.091 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.264 0.358 3.439 0.306 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 131 1.000 0.306 0.550 4.337 0.371 0.059 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 78 0.544 0.083 0.009 -0.198 3.058 0.339 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.339 SERIES 222019 AND 222025 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 222022 AND 222023 122 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 76.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 28. 78. 78. RBAR 0.485 0.567 0.613 SDEV 0.119 0.093 0.084 SERR 0.023 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.921 0.945 0.954 NSS 12.4 13.0 13.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1845 1975 131 0.995 0.189 -0.186 2.589 0.238 -0.122 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.088 0.037 0.121 25 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.45 1.01 1.18 1.63 8.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.121 -0.014 0.068 0.106 0.008 -0.165 -0.046 0.079 -0.086 -0.152 PACF -0.121 -0.029 0.064 0.124 0.041 -0.166 -0.112 0.043 -0.047 -0.128 95% C.L. 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.180 0.180 0.185 0.185 0.186 0.187 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.022 0.082 0.119 0.000 -0.175 -0.057 0.065 -0.098 -0.168 PACF -0.004 -0.022 0.081 0.120 0.006 -0.180 -0.085 0.047 -0.068 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.178 0.178 0.184 0.184 0.185 0.186 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1845 1975 131 0.997 0.200 -0.253 3.110 0.194 0.345 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.343 0.128 0.149 0.143 -0.010 -0.171 -0.099 -0.021 -0.147 -0.209 PACF 0.343 0.012 0.115 0.065 -0.101 -0.182 -0.008 0.035 -0.116 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.175 0.194 0.197 0.200 0.203 0.203 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.212 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.119 0.345 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.99 MINUTES