RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit107e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit107e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 223 1 Arosa GR Rot Tritt (Nord WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 223 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1940 4648-941 1690 1975 - 223 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 224021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223013 1696 1975 280 0.841 0.364 0.922 4.060 0.218 0.818 2 223014 1847 1975 129 0.945 0.391 0.958 4.003 0.223 0.764 3 223015 1842 1975 134 0.899 0.232 0.249 3.068 0.200 0.582 4 223016 1826 1975 150 0.957 0.292 0.426 2.606 0.183 0.703 5 224018 1842 1975 134 1.220 0.245 0.237 3.121 0.149 0.559 6 224019 1759 1975 217 1.124 0.356 0.691 2.989 0.200 0.690 7 224021 1690 1975 286 0.746 0.358 2.115 6.956 0.169 0.901 8 224022 1842 1975 134 0.634 0.135 -0.008 3.110 0.149 0.603 9 224023 1817 1975 159 1.082 0.310 0.705 3.266 0.140 0.801 10 224027 1793 1975 183 1.285 0.555 0.635 2.624 0.186 0.863 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1690 TO 1975 286 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.973 0.324 0.693 3.580 0.182 0.728 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.206 0.112 0.588 1.283 0.029 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 0.951 0.333 0.663 3.116 0.184 0.734 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 83 0.283 0.118 0.673 1.014 0.052 0.215 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.634 0.135 -0.008 2.606 0.140 0.559 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 0.841 0.245 0.249 2.989 0.149 0.603 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.124 0.364 0.922 4.003 0.200 0.818 MAXIMUM VALUE 285 1.285 0.555 2.115 6.956 0.223 0.901 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.200 0.302 0.045 -0.319 2.355 -0.409 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.409 SERIES 223013 AND 224021 280 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 224023 AND 224027 159 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 45. 45. 45. 45. RBAR -0.213 0.223 0.666 0.501 0.403 0.300 0.314 0.334 0.317 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.101 0.217 0.210 0.237 0.207 0.244 0.255 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.058 0.089 0.066 0.035 0.031 0.036 0.038 EPS -0.686 0.459 0.883 0.851 0.852 0.811 0.821 0.834 0.822 NSS 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.7 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1975 286 0.941 0.217 0.728 3.818 0.157 0.570 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.626 0.650 -0.234 21 265 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 0.91 1.01 1.12 2.03 21.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.98 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 154. 83. 129. 134. 217. 286. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.568 0.430 0.359 0.360 0.318 0.207 0.165 0.225 0.237 0.225 PACF 0.568 0.159 0.096 0.140 0.045 -0.086 -0.007 0.131 0.059 0.043 95% C.L. 0.118 0.152 0.168 0.178 0.188 0.196 0.199 0.200 0.204 0.208 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.372 0.445 0.103 0.031 0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 223013 1 0.99122626 0.01089126 0.00000000 0.53296012 2 223014 1 1.20338714 0.06034089 0.00000000 0.79543066 3 223015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218950 0.75146222 4 223016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201758 1.10886085 5 224018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00248352 1.05251145 6 224019 1 1.04394782 0.01662280 0.00000000 0.84458286 7 224021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00223101 0.42604467 8 224022 1 0.24482007 0.04838159 0.00000000 0.59752899 9 224023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00475782 1.46213520 10 224027 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00908303 2.12044740 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223013 1696 1975 280 1.000 0.319 0.302 2.626 0.217 0.647 2 223014 1847 1975 129 0.999 0.319 0.355 3.166 0.221 0.595 3 223015 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.245 0.339 2.956 0.198 0.499 4 223016 1826 1975 150 0.999 0.285 0.370 2.758 0.182 0.660 5 224018 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.187 0.263 2.948 0.148 0.479 6 224019 1759 1975 217 1.000 0.214 -0.007 2.752 0.200 0.344 7 224021 1690 1975 286 1.012 0.365 0.709 2.760 0.170 0.829 8 224022 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.196 -0.162 2.830 0.148 0.567 9 224023 1817 1975 159 1.001 0.199 0.307 3.212 0.139 0.609 10 224027 1793 1975 183 1.016 0.250 0.834 4.312 0.185 0.550 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.003 0.258 0.331 3.032 0.181 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.006 0.062 0.291 0.487 0.029 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.247 0.323 2.889 0.183 0.581 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 83 0.002 0.119 0.107 0.408 0.052 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.999 0.187 -0.162 2.626 0.139 0.344 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.199 0.263 2.758 0.148 0.499 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.001 0.319 0.370 3.166 0.200 0.647 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 1.016 0.365 0.834 4.312 0.221 0.829 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 223013 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 223014 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 223015 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 223016 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 224018 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 224019 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 224021 -67 191 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 224022 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 224023 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 224027 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223013 1696 1975 280 0.994 0.261 0.259 3.404 0.217 0.481 2 223014 1847 1975 129 0.994 0.281 0.482 3.341 0.221 0.484 3 223015 1842 1975 134 0.999 0.237 0.362 3.012 0.198 0.488 4 223016 1826 1975 150 0.996 0.217 0.391 3.336 0.181 0.438 5 224018 1842 1975 134 0.999 0.181 0.399 3.203 0.147 0.442 6 224019 1759 1975 217 0.999 0.206 0.005 2.891 0.200 0.284 7 224021 1690 1975 286 0.993 0.239 0.205 2.835 0.170 0.626 8 224022 1842 1975 134 0.998 0.172 0.019 2.829 0.148 0.426 9 224023 1817 1975 159 0.998 0.172 0.325 3.490 0.139 0.477 10 224027 1793 1975 183 0.998 0.200 0.316 2.990 0.185 0.329 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.997 0.217 0.276 3.133 0.181 0.447 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.002 0.038 0.159 0.251 0.029 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 0.998 0.211 0.321 3.108 0.183 0.460 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 83 0.005 0.058 0.186 0.450 0.052 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.993 0.172 0.005 2.829 0.139 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 0.994 0.181 0.205 2.891 0.148 0.426 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 0.999 0.239 0.391 3.341 0.200 0.484 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 0.999 0.281 0.482 3.490 0.221 0.626 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.319 0.126 0.019 -0.349 2.675 -0.012 0.546 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.012 SERIES 223015 AND 224023 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.546 SERIES 224022 AND 224027 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 45. 45. 45. 45. RBAR -0.158 0.215 0.632 0.546 0.405 0.249 0.348 0.405 0.391 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.111 0.181 0.145 0.203 0.174 0.156 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.064 0.074 0.046 0.030 0.026 0.023 0.022 EPS -0.462 0.448 0.867 0.872 0.853 0.768 0.842 0.872 0.865 NSS 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.7 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1975 286 0.993 0.150 -0.043 3.140 0.142 0.299 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.112 0.075 0.097 36 250 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.91 1.01 1.14 2.04 11.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.298 0.171 0.108 0.116 -0.020 -0.037 -0.068 -0.061 -0.104 -0.006 PACF 0.298 0.090 0.038 0.069 -0.092 -0.036 -0.051 -0.027 -0.059 0.063 95% C.L. 0.118 0.128 0.131 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.098 0.272 0.092 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.251 0.114 0.092 0.057 -0.081 -0.031 -0.013 -0.045 -0.093 -0.034 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.251 2 0.238 0.054 3 0.235 0.041 0.055 4 0.234 0.040 0.050 0.018 5 0.236 0.046 0.055 0.045 -0.116 6 0.236 0.046 0.055 0.045 -0.117 0.005 7 0.236 0.046 0.055 0.045 -0.117 0.004 0.003 8 0.236 0.046 0.051 0.046 -0.116 0.005 0.011 -0.032 9 0.234 0.047 0.051 0.038 -0.112 0.009 0.014 -0.015 -0.069 10 0.234 0.047 0.051 0.038 -0.112 0.009 0.014 -0.015 -0.070 0.000 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1621.50 1604.86 1606.03 1607.18 1609.08 1607.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1609.19 1611.19 1612.90 1613.51 1615.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.251 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.73 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.251 0.063 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 223013 1 0.248 0.481 2 223014 1 0.260 0.491 3 223015 1 0.247 0.497 4 223016 1 0.201 0.445 5 224018 1 0.205 0.449 6 224019 1 0.087 0.287 7 224021 1 0.413 0.626 8 224022 1 0.184 0.429 9 224023 1 0.228 0.478 10 224027 1 0.150 0.331 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.222 0.451 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.085 0.093 MEDIAN 1 0.216 0.464 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.063 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.087 0.287 LOWER HINGE 1 0.184 0.429 UPPER HINGE 1 0.248 0.491 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.413 0.626 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223013 1696 1975 280 1.000 0.229 0.216 3.074 0.260 -0.068 2 223014 1847 1975 129 1.000 0.245 0.187 3.603 0.284 -0.074 3 223015 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.205 -0.069 2.782 0.243 0.013 4 223016 1826 1975 150 1.000 0.193 0.335 3.144 0.220 -0.033 5 224018 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.162 0.478 3.312 0.178 -0.021 6 224019 1759 1975 217 1.000 0.197 -0.074 2.984 0.224 -0.018 7 224021 1690 1975 286 1.000 0.186 0.178 2.836 0.225 -0.114 8 224022 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.155 -0.360 2.951 0.178 -0.012 9 224023 1817 1975 159 1.000 0.151 0.302 3.775 0.164 -0.001 10 224027 1793 1975 183 1.000 0.189 0.175 3.265 0.216 -0.069 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.191 0.137 3.173 0.219 -0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 60 0.000 0.030 0.242 0.323 0.038 0.040 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.191 0.182 3.109 0.222 -0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 83 0.000 0.044 0.371 0.361 0.065 0.058 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.151 -0.360 2.782 0.164 -0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.162 -0.069 2.951 0.178 -0.069 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 217 1.000 0.205 0.302 3.312 0.243 -0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 286 1.000 0.245 0.478 3.775 0.284 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.426 0.100 0.015 -0.294 2.610 0.210 0.600 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.210 SERIES 223015 AND 224023 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.600 SERIES 224019 AND 224027 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.47 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 45. 45. 45. 45. RBAR 0.302 0.287 0.518 0.556 0.519 0.365 0.447 0.513 0.496 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.188 0.124 0.073 0.146 0.120 0.125 0.112 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.109 0.051 0.023 0.022 0.018 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.501 0.543 0.804 0.877 0.902 0.852 0.890 0.913 0.908 NSS 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.7 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1975 286 0.998 0.142 -0.204 3.000 0.177 -0.158 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.161 0.084 0.046 38 248 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.86 1.00 1.07 1.93 19.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 1.00 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.158 0.006 -0.028 0.078 -0.052 -0.015 -0.050 0.024 -0.102 0.072 PACF -0.158 -0.019 -0.031 0.071 -0.029 -0.028 -0.056 0.000 -0.098 0.043 95% C.L. 0.118 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.158 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.024 -0.015 0.069 -0.044 -0.032 -0.051 0.001 -0.090 0.067 PACF -0.004 -0.025 -0.015 0.068 -0.045 -0.029 -0.051 -0.007 -0.088 0.068 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.121 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1690 1975 286 0.998 0.145 -0.029 2.993 0.146 0.240 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.239 0.035 0.008 0.053 -0.040 -0.052 -0.065 -0.032 -0.074 0.048 PACF 0.239 -0.023 0.006 0.053 -0.069 -0.029 -0.047 -0.010 -0.062 0.088 95% C.L. 0.118 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.058 0.241 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.11 MINUTES