RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit108e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit108e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 223 1 Arosa GR Arlenwald (Süd) WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 223 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 2000 4648-941 1785 1975 - 223 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223006 1793 1975 183 0.387 0.325 1.470 4.861 0.256 0.914 2 223007 1858 1975 118 0.571 0.226 1.658 6.143 0.186 0.816 3 223008 1785 1975 191 0.473 0.263 0.443 2.147 0.232 0.891 4 223009 1796 1975 180 0.812 0.329 0.863 3.496 0.172 0.840 5 223010 1789 1975 187 0.684 0.198 0.225 2.936 0.221 0.515 6 223012 1796 1975 180 0.506 0.183 0.681 3.597 0.196 0.801 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 6 FROM 1785 TO 1975 191 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 173 0.572 0.254 0.890 3.863 0.211 0.796 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.154 0.063 0.568 1.429 0.031 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.538 0.245 0.772 3.547 0.209 0.828 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.211 0.127 1.027 1.924 0.046 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.387 0.183 0.225 2.147 0.172 0.515 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.473 0.198 0.443 2.936 0.186 0.801 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.684 0.325 1.470 4.861 0.232 0.891 MAXIMUM VALUE 191 0.812 0.329 1.658 6.143 0.256 0.914 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.225 0.511 0.132 -0.836 2.492 -0.687 0.821 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.687 SERIES 223006 AND 223008 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.821 SERIES 223006 AND 223009 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 10. 15. 15. 15. RBAR 0.519 0.172 0.270 0.327 0.215 SDEV 0.124 0.266 0.498 0.294 0.279 SERR 0.039 0.084 0.128 0.076 0.072 EPS 0.847 0.540 0.690 0.745 0.622 NSS 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1975 191 0.568 0.170 0.678 5.548 0.185 0.547 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.380 0.317 0.083 24 167 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.48 2.70 1.02 1.27 3.96 28.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 182. 7. 118. 180. 187. 191. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.544 0.585 0.416 0.400 0.295 0.215 0.154 0.120 0.096 0.038 PACF 0.544 0.411 0.008 0.042 -0.024 -0.090 -0.038 0.015 0.026 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.145 0.183 0.218 0.234 0.248 0.255 0.259 0.261 0.262 0.263 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.445 0.307 0.445 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 223006 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 223007 1 0.77176583 0.05173784 0.00000000 0.44761366 3 223008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00386548 0.10205566 4 223009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00483413 1.24954438 5 223010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109857 0.78732967 6 223012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153254 0.64491683 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223006 1793 1975 183 0.996 0.326 0.519 3.836 0.255 0.525 2 223007 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.233 -0.013 2.175 0.185 0.494 3 223008 1785 1975 191 1.001 0.321 0.096 2.827 0.232 0.579 4 223009 1796 1975 180 1.001 0.238 0.496 2.925 0.172 0.572 5 223010 1789 1975 187 1.000 0.271 0.014 2.837 0.220 0.492 6 223012 1796 1975 180 0.999 0.298 -0.004 3.442 0.195 0.716 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 173 0.999 0.281 0.185 3.007 0.210 0.563 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.040 0.253 0.572 0.032 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.284 0.055 2.881 0.207 0.549 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.002 0.083 0.501 0.615 0.047 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.996 0.233 -0.013 2.175 0.172 0.492 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.999 0.238 -0.004 2.827 0.185 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.001 0.321 0.496 3.442 0.232 0.579 MAXIMUM VALUE 191 1.001 0.326 0.519 3.836 0.255 0.716 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 223006 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 223007 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 223008 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 223009 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 223010 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 223012 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223006 1793 1975 183 0.997 0.310 0.382 3.450 0.255 0.482 2 223007 1858 1975 118 0.997 0.215 0.065 2.442 0.185 0.413 3 223008 1785 1975 191 0.992 0.269 -0.161 3.430 0.232 0.458 4 223009 1796 1975 180 0.999 0.230 0.531 3.071 0.171 0.541 5 223010 1789 1975 187 0.998 0.263 0.015 2.882 0.220 0.454 6 223012 1796 1975 180 0.996 0.282 0.062 3.886 0.195 0.678 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 173 0.997 0.261 0.149 3.193 0.210 0.504 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.035 0.256 0.506 0.032 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.997 0.266 0.064 3.250 0.208 0.470 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.002 0.052 0.366 0.569 0.047 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 118 0.992 0.215 -0.161 2.442 0.171 0.413 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.996 0.230 0.015 2.882 0.185 0.454 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.998 0.282 0.382 3.450 0.232 0.541 MAXIMUM VALUE 191 0.999 0.310 0.531 3.886 0.255 0.678 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.327 0.112 0.029 0.003 2.475 0.146 0.516 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.146 SERIES 223006 AND 223008 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.516 SERIES 223006 AND 223012 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 10. 15. 15. 15. RBAR 0.505 0.265 0.347 0.425 0.288 SDEV 0.149 0.174 0.151 0.151 0.182 SERR 0.047 0.055 0.039 0.039 0.047 EPS 0.840 0.670 0.761 0.816 0.708 NSS 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1975 191 0.997 0.192 -0.156 3.580 0.170 0.437 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.031 0.017 0.166 28 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.35 5.59 1.04 2.27 7.86 157.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.434 0.344 0.265 0.234 0.111 0.073 0.049 0.009 -0.065 -0.140 PACF 0.434 0.192 0.077 0.070 -0.073 -0.025 -0.001 -0.030 -0.081 -0.118 95% C.L. 0.145 0.170 0.184 0.192 0.198 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.200 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.227 0.352 0.196 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.439 0.322 0.296 0.190 0.065 0.067 0.067 0.022 -0.050 -0.145 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.439 2 0.369 0.160 3 0.347 0.111 0.135 4 0.348 0.112 0.139 -0.010 5 0.347 0.125 0.150 0.024 -0.097 6 0.349 0.125 0.147 0.022 -0.103 0.015 7 0.348 0.128 0.146 0.017 -0.107 0.003 0.035 8 0.349 0.128 0.145 0.017 -0.106 0.004 0.039 -0.009 9 0.348 0.132 0.146 0.008 -0.104 0.017 0.050 0.021 -0.087 10 0.334 0.135 0.154 0.011 -0.121 0.018 0.073 0.042 -0.032 -0.159 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 995.21 956.30 953.32 951.79 953.77 953.95 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 955.91 957.67 959.65 960.19 957.31 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.347 0.111 0.135 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.53 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.347 0.231 0.254 0.161 0.115 0.092 0.066 0.049 0.037 0.0271 0.020 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0014 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 223006 3 0.303 0.352 0.105 0.217 2 223007 3 0.183 0.405 0.048 -0.002 3 223008 3 0.222 0.415 0.071 0.051 4 223009 3 0.309 0.477 0.038 0.120 5 223010 3 0.261 0.337 0.219 0.047 6 223012 3 0.480 0.570 0.090 0.092 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.293 0.426 0.095 0.087 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.104 0.086 0.066 0.076 MEDIAN 3 0.282 0.410 0.080 0.071 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.087 0.126 0.058 0.073 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.183 0.337 0.038 -0.002 LOWER HINGE 3 0.222 0.352 0.048 0.047 UPPER HINGE 3 0.309 0.477 0.105 0.120 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.480 0.570 0.219 0.217 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 223006 1793 1975 183 1.000 0.259 0.247 3.509 0.285 0.014 2 223007 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.193 0.073 2.545 0.219 -0.007 3 223008 1785 1975 191 1.000 0.237 -0.282 4.231 0.267 -0.001 4 223009 1796 1975 180 1.000 0.191 0.554 3.677 0.212 0.001 5 223010 1789 1975 187 1.000 0.227 -0.100 3.903 0.257 -0.005 6 223012 1796 1975 180 1.000 0.203 0.261 3.305 0.230 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 173 1.000 0.219 0.126 3.528 0.245 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.027 0.295 0.579 0.029 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.215 0.160 3.593 0.244 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 7 0.000 0.043 0.361 0.598 0.048 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 118 1.000 0.191 -0.282 2.545 0.212 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.193 -0.100 3.305 0.219 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.237 0.261 3.903 0.267 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 191 1.000 0.259 0.554 4.231 0.285 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 15 0.395 0.073 0.019 -0.588 2.965 0.260 0.502 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.260 SERIES 223006 AND 223008 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.502 SERIES 223010 AND 223012 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 83.87 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 10. 10. 15. 15. 15. RBAR 0.431 0.318 0.444 0.519 0.423 SDEV 0.071 0.066 0.100 0.105 0.092 SERR 0.023 0.021 0.026 0.027 0.024 EPS 0.796 0.725 0.827 0.866 0.815 NSS 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1975 191 0.997 0.165 0.234 3.186 0.196 -0.068 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.012 0.007 0.147 25 166 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.13 1.50 1.00 1.21 2.71 47.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.19 0.00 0.81 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 0.011 -0.001 0.068 -0.055 -0.006 0.004 0.042 0.014 -0.121 PACF -0.067 0.007 0.000 0.068 -0.046 -0.014 0.003 0.039 0.026 -0.123 95% C.L. 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.005 0.064 -0.051 -0.011 0.007 0.044 0.008 -0.117 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.005 0.064 -0.051 -0.010 0.006 0.041 0.014 -0.120 95% C.L. 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.004 0.000 -0.001 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1975 191 1.000 0.188 -0.130 3.283 0.165 0.446 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.444 0.321 0.302 0.230 0.113 0.089 0.065 0.057 0.003 -0.085 PACF 0.444 0.155 0.143 0.036 -0.071 -0.006 -0.005 0.025 -0.041 -0.118 95% C.L. 0.145 0.171 0.183 0.193 0.199 0.200 0.201 0.201 0.202 0.202 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.237 0.354 0.104 0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 990.35 MINUTES