RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit109e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit109e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 225 1 Riederalp VS Aletschwald WIDTH_EARLY PICE - 225 2 Switzerland Swiss stone pine, Arolla pine 2000 4624-801 1788 1974 - 225 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 225007 1903 1974 72 1.850 0.358 0.201 3.185 0.167 0.344 2 225008 1849 1974 126 1.482 0.418 0.631 3.043 0.182 0.699 3 225009 1854 1974 121 1.463 0.521 1.084 3.736 0.172 0.729 4 225010 1874 1974 101 1.085 0.323 0.093 2.672 0.207 0.602 5 225011 1923 1974 52 1.742 0.383 0.129 2.536 0.152 0.578 6 225013 1889 1974 86 1.968 0.436 0.057 3.069 0.140 0.688 7 227030 1788 1974 187 0.743 0.560 1.453 4.076 0.183 0.939 8 227031 1809 1974 166 0.672 0.252 2.235 9.514 0.208 0.695 9 227032 1870 1974 105 0.723 0.228 0.494 2.604 0.183 0.695 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 9 FROM 1788 TO 1974 187 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.303 0.386 0.709 3.826 0.177 0.663 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.511 0.112 0.748 2.194 0.022 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 1.463 0.383 0.494 3.069 0.182 0.695 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 1.000 0.112 0.955 1.065 0.016 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 52 0.672 0.228 0.057 2.536 0.140 0.344 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 86 0.743 0.323 0.129 2.672 0.167 0.602 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.742 0.436 1.084 3.736 0.183 0.699 MAXIMUM VALUE 187 1.968 0.560 2.235 9.514 0.208 0.939 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.250 0.221 0.037 0.205 2.364 -0.126 0.667 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.126 SERIES 225010 AND 227030 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.667 SERIES 225013 AND 227032 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 1. 6. 21. 28. RBAR 0.554 -0.084 0.078 0.341 0.208 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.263 0.235 0.270 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.107 0.051 0.051 EPS 0.759 -0.496 0.355 0.807 0.698 NSS 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.1 8.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1974 187 1.166 0.398 1.029 3.972 0.141 0.845 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.096 -0.074 0.548 15 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.20 3.19 1.03 1.12 4.31 15.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.22 0.00 0.78 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 105. 40. 52. 86. 126. 187. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.841 0.784 0.734 0.680 0.626 0.561 0.522 0.486 0.482 0.445 PACF 0.841 0.263 0.099 0.010 -0.019 -0.070 0.029 0.032 0.132 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.146 0.227 0.279 0.318 0.348 0.371 0.389 0.403 0.416 0.427 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.750 0.571 0.226 0.108 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 225007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00697649 2.10478091 2 225008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00193479 1.60531938 3 225009 1 0.99924904 0.03133747 0.00000000 1.20974517 4 225010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00304112 0.93034852 5 225011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016136 1.73803163 6 225013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00950592 2.38187957 7 227030 1 2.10788035 0.02335755 0.00000000 0.27165836 8 227031 1 1.30964565 0.10902717 0.00000000 0.60362005 9 227032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00306707 0.88531685 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 225007 1903 1974 72 1.000 0.179 0.557 3.930 0.165 0.254 2 225008 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.277 0.592 2.921 0.180 0.684 3 225009 1854 1974 121 1.000 0.312 1.303 5.517 0.170 0.612 4 225010 1874 1974 101 1.001 0.300 0.474 3.195 0.205 0.585 5 225011 1923 1974 52 1.000 0.220 0.121 2.535 0.149 0.567 6 225013 1889 1974 86 1.000 0.191 0.087 2.831 0.138 0.535 7 227030 1788 1974 187 1.000 0.282 1.030 4.635 0.182 0.634 8 227031 1809 1974 166 1.000 0.234 0.160 2.906 0.206 0.383 9 227032 1870 1974 105 0.998 0.286 0.682 3.016 0.181 0.604 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.253 0.556 3.498 0.175 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.001 0.049 0.414 0.996 0.023 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.277 0.557 3.016 0.180 0.585 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.066 0.522 1.024 0.017 0.076 MINIMUM VALUE 52 0.998 0.179 0.087 2.535 0.138 0.254 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.220 0.160 2.906 0.165 0.535 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.286 0.682 3.930 0.182 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 187 1.001 0.312 1.303 5.517 0.206 0.684 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 225007 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 225008 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 225009 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 225010 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 225011 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 225013 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 227030 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 227031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 227032 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 225007 1903 1974 72 0.999 0.167 0.457 3.477 0.165 0.169 2 225008 1849 1974 126 0.999 0.266 0.422 2.653 0.180 0.657 3 225009 1854 1974 121 0.998 0.291 1.325 5.447 0.170 0.565 4 225010 1874 1974 101 0.997 0.271 0.235 2.938 0.205 0.522 5 225011 1923 1974 52 0.996 0.200 0.249 2.718 0.147 0.500 6 225013 1889 1974 86 0.998 0.180 0.043 2.865 0.138 0.479 7 227030 1788 1974 187 0.997 0.256 0.922 4.981 0.182 0.553 8 227031 1809 1974 166 0.999 0.228 0.171 2.973 0.206 0.348 9 227032 1870 1974 105 0.997 0.241 0.765 4.875 0.181 0.467 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.998 0.233 0.510 3.659 0.175 0.473 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.001 0.043 0.416 1.117 0.023 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 0.998 0.241 0.422 2.973 0.180 0.500 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.002 0.066 0.530 2.011 0.018 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 52 0.996 0.167 0.043 2.653 0.138 0.169 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 86 0.997 0.200 0.235 2.865 0.165 0.467 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 0.999 0.266 0.765 4.875 0.182 0.553 MAXIMUM VALUE 187 0.999 0.291 1.325 5.447 0.206 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.259 0.190 0.032 -0.029 2.075 -0.047 0.611 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.047 SERIES 225009 AND 227030 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.611 SERIES 227030 AND 227032 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 1. 6. 21. 28. RBAR 0.292 0.073 0.072 0.327 0.245 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.187 0.212 0.271 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.076 0.046 0.051 EPS 0.512 0.252 0.333 0.797 0.741 NSS 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.1 8.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1974 187 0.993 0.156 0.249 3.303 0.134 0.427 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.183 0.135 0.033 24 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.34 1.00 1.07 2.41 19.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.424 0.279 0.195 0.114 0.033 -0.064 -0.140 -0.198 -0.159 -0.145 PACF 0.424 0.121 0.049 -0.008 -0.049 -0.102 -0.107 -0.108 -0.001 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.146 0.171 0.180 0.185 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.189 0.193 0.196 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.195 0.373 0.122 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.400 0.276 0.201 0.115 -0.016 -0.146 -0.167 -0.231 -0.185 -0.187 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.400 2 0.345 0.138 3 0.336 0.117 0.061 4 0.337 0.118 0.065 -0.011 5 0.336 0.126 0.078 0.027 -0.112 6 0.317 0.130 0.091 0.048 -0.057 -0.164 7 0.305 0.126 0.095 0.054 -0.048 -0.141 -0.073 8 0.297 0.110 0.089 0.060 -0.037 -0.127 -0.039 -0.113 9 0.297 0.110 0.090 0.060 -0.037 -0.127 -0.039 -0.114 0.003 10 0.297 0.106 0.088 0.055 -0.039 -0.125 -0.036 -0.110 0.015 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 935.00 904.37 902.77 904.06 906.04 905.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 902.55 903.54 903.13 905.13 906.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.345 0.138 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.62 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.38 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.345 0.257 0.136 0.083 0.047 0.028 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.0032 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 225007 2 0.058 0.197 -0.147 2 225008 2 0.440 0.605 0.083 3 225009 2 0.337 0.624 -0.085 4 225010 2 0.326 0.401 0.245 5 225011 2 0.264 0.513 0.001 6 225013 2 0.233 0.462 0.038 7 227030 2 0.326 0.473 0.147 8 227031 2 0.211 0.240 0.313 9 227032 2 0.278 0.345 0.264 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.275 0.429 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.106 0.148 0.160 MEDIAN 2 0.278 0.462 0.083 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.093 0.168 0.244 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.058 0.197 -0.147 LOWER HINGE 2 0.233 0.345 0.001 UPPER HINGE 2 0.326 0.513 0.245 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.440 0.624 0.313 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 225007 1903 1974 72 1.000 0.163 0.299 2.976 0.177 0.017 2 225008 1849 1974 126 1.000 0.199 0.434 3.103 0.226 -0.001 3 225009 1854 1974 121 1.000 0.236 1.844 8.441 0.225 -0.014 4 225010 1874 1974 101 1.000 0.221 0.308 3.117 0.245 -0.018 5 225011 1923 1974 52 1.000 0.171 0.475 3.174 0.186 -0.008 6 225013 1889 1974 86 1.000 0.158 -0.174 3.898 0.172 -0.002 7 227030 1788 1974 187 1.000 0.210 1.164 6.641 0.219 0.010 8 227031 1809 1974 166 1.000 0.203 0.205 2.978 0.225 -0.020 9 227032 1870 1974 105 1.000 0.205 1.465 7.597 0.211 -0.020 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.196 0.669 4.658 0.209 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.000 0.027 0.666 2.239 0.025 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 105 1.000 0.203 0.434 3.174 0.219 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 40 0.000 0.039 0.864 3.538 0.040 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 52 1.000 0.158 -0.174 2.976 0.172 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 86 1.000 0.171 0.299 3.103 0.186 -0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 126 1.000 0.210 1.164 6.641 0.225 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 187 1.000 0.236 1.844 8.441 0.245 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.327 0.157 0.026 -0.223 2.169 0.043 0.634 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.043 SERIES 225008 AND 227030 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.634 SERIES 225011 AND 225013 52 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.67 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 1. 1. 6. 21. 28. RBAR 0.400 0.288 0.107 0.287 0.369 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.125 0.171 0.179 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.051 0.037 0.034 EPS 0.628 0.633 0.438 0.765 0.838 NSS 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.1 8.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1974 187 0.994 0.138 0.305 3.421 0.154 -0.026 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.196 0.130 -0.001 28 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 2.85 1.04 1.24 4.10 32.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.026 -0.065 0.012 -0.014 0.027 -0.064 -0.043 -0.132 -0.019 -0.001 PACF -0.026 -0.066 0.008 -0.017 0.027 -0.065 -0.043 -0.146 -0.032 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.150 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.001 0.010 -0.021 0.023 -0.075 -0.048 -0.140 -0.018 -0.013 PACF 0.001 -0.001 0.010 -0.021 0.023 -0.075 -0.048 -0.142 -0.018 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.150 0.150 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1788 1974 187 0.994 0.151 0.129 2.841 0.131 0.397 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.395 0.263 0.134 0.039 0.002 -0.103 -0.121 -0.182 -0.099 -0.080 PACF 0.395 0.127 -0.009 -0.046 -0.016 -0.113 -0.055 -0.103 0.041 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.146 0.168 0.176 0.178 0.179 0.179 0.180 0.182 0.185 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.170 0.345 0.128 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES