RUN: files FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: swit110e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: swit110e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 225 1 Riederalp VS Aletschwald WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 225 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 2000 4624-801 1778 1974 - 225 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226012 1874 1974 101 1.073 0.256 0.123 2.503 0.159 0.666 2 226021 1847 1974 128 1.076 0.227 0.274 2.917 0.151 0.582 3 226023 1784 1974 191 0.648 0.158 0.019 2.867 0.172 0.576 4 226026 1880 1974 95 0.795 0.179 0.676 3.116 0.157 0.528 5 226028 1834 1974 141 1.016 0.225 0.221 3.353 0.144 0.681 6 226029 1887 1974 88 0.794 0.230 0.813 3.663 0.200 0.605 7 226034 1860 1974 115 0.494 0.159 0.992 3.544 0.184 0.765 8 226035 1778 1974 197 0.817 0.247 0.641 4.031 0.231 0.564 9 226036 1828 1974 147 0.780 0.176 0.081 2.846 0.209 0.340 10 226037 1846 1974 129 1.051 0.164 0.163 3.244 0.119 0.505 11 227040 1873 1974 102 1.029 0.455 0.806 3.077 0.175 0.890 12 227042 1868 1974 107 1.179 0.441 0.312 2.141 0.193 0.786 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1778 TO 1974 197 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.896 0.243 0.427 3.108 0.175 0.624 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.205 0.102 0.337 0.513 0.031 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 0.917 0.226 0.293 3.096 0.173 0.593 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.275 0.081 0.598 0.592 0.043 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 88 0.494 0.158 0.019 2.141 0.119 0.340 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.787 0.170 0.143 2.856 0.154 0.546 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.062 0.251 0.741 3.448 0.197 0.723 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.179 0.455 0.992 4.031 0.231 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.294 0.260 0.032 -0.227 2.588 -0.312 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.312 SERIES 226028 AND 226029 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 227040 AND 227042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 3. 15. 55. 66. RBAR 0.209 0.385 0.128 0.266 0.379 SDEV 0.000 0.265 0.228 0.252 0.263 SERR 0.000 0.153 0.059 0.034 0.032 EPS 0.466 0.794 0.589 0.811 0.880 NSS 3.3 6.2 9.8 11.9 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1778 1974 197 0.851 0.158 -0.268 2.784 0.141 0.548 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.435 0.361 -0.059 20 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.72 1.01 1.05 1.77 143.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 122. 42. 88. 102. 144. 197. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.545 0.480 0.466 0.461 0.362 0.345 0.391 0.372 0.353 0.379 PACF 0.545 0.261 0.199 0.162 -0.019 0.032 0.134 0.067 0.056 0.092 95% C.L. 0.142 0.180 0.204 0.225 0.243 0.254 0.263 0.275 0.285 0.294 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.395 0.319 0.154 0.137 0.170 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 226012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00412720 1.28306139 2 226021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00225997 1.22162771 3 226023 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055873 0.70143896 4 226026 1 0.37959179 0.03701886 0.00000000 0.69182879 5 226028 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234997 1.18316007 6 226029 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00553177 0.54804075 7 226034 1 0.44351885 0.01609872 0.00000000 0.29394293 8 226035 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118233 0.93400496 9 226036 1 0.29179454 0.02701890 0.00000000 0.70847839 10 226037 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072294 1.00393891 11 227040 1 1.54815185 0.03698501 0.00000000 0.63575727 12 227042 1 1.19536448 0.02831873 0.00000000 0.80845118 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226012 1874 1974 101 0.999 0.211 0.330 2.325 0.157 0.569 2 226021 1847 1974 128 1.000 0.193 0.203 3.084 0.150 0.490 3 226023 1784 1974 191 1.000 0.237 -0.109 2.939 0.171 0.553 4 226026 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.190 0.397 2.538 0.156 0.398 5 226028 1834 1974 141 0.999 0.197 0.036 3.555 0.143 0.612 6 226029 1887 1974 88 1.002 0.229 0.269 2.670 0.198 0.358 7 226034 1860 1974 115 1.000 0.230 0.246 2.828 0.182 0.526 8 226035 1778 1974 197 1.000 0.290 0.543 3.676 0.230 0.511 9 226036 1828 1974 147 1.000 0.206 -0.093 2.879 0.208 0.181 10 226037 1846 1974 129 1.000 0.155 0.305 3.469 0.118 0.486 11 227040 1873 1974 102 1.000 0.267 0.386 3.765 0.172 0.720 12 227042 1868 1974 107 1.000 0.311 1.339 6.279 0.191 0.682 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.226 0.321 3.334 0.173 0.507 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.001 0.045 0.376 1.037 0.031 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.220 0.287 3.011 0.171 0.519 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.057 0.272 0.866 0.042 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 88 0.999 0.155 -0.109 2.325 0.118 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.195 0.120 2.749 0.153 0.442 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.252 0.391 3.616 0.194 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.002 0.311 1.339 6.279 0.230 0.720 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 226012 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 226021 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 226023 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 226026 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 226028 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 226029 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 226034 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 226035 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 226036 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 226037 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 227040 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 227042 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226012 1874 1974 101 0.999 0.180 0.166 2.554 0.157 0.448 2 226021 1847 1974 128 0.999 0.162 -0.282 3.388 0.150 0.296 3 226023 1784 1974 191 0.997 0.217 0.375 4.205 0.171 0.438 4 226026 1880 1974 95 0.999 0.179 0.397 2.570 0.156 0.329 5 226028 1834 1974 141 0.999 0.175 0.004 3.785 0.143 0.479 6 226029 1887 1974 88 0.997 0.197 0.228 3.318 0.198 0.166 7 226034 1860 1974 115 0.998 0.217 0.219 2.753 0.182 0.472 8 226035 1778 1974 197 0.997 0.268 0.427 3.359 0.230 0.430 9 226036 1828 1974 147 0.999 0.203 0.002 3.007 0.208 0.145 10 226037 1846 1974 129 0.999 0.143 0.221 3.557 0.118 0.409 11 227040 1873 1974 102 0.994 0.205 -0.331 3.586 0.171 0.503 12 227042 1868 1974 107 0.993 0.233 0.512 4.586 0.190 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.998 0.198 0.161 3.389 0.173 0.380 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.002 0.034 0.269 0.621 0.031 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 0.998 0.200 0.220 3.374 0.171 0.434 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.002 0.041 0.383 0.805 0.041 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 88 0.993 0.143 -0.331 2.554 0.118 0.145 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.997 0.177 0.003 2.880 0.153 0.312 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.999 0.217 0.386 3.686 0.194 0.460 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 0.999 0.268 0.512 4.586 0.230 0.503 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.333 0.134 0.016 -0.233 3.255 -0.031 0.658 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.031 SERIES 226026 AND 226028 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.658 SERIES 227040 AND 227042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 3. 15. 55. 66. RBAR 0.172 0.405 0.184 0.299 0.424 SDEV 0.000 0.145 0.206 0.194 0.190 SERR 0.000 0.083 0.053 0.026 0.023 EPS 0.406 0.808 0.688 0.835 0.898 NSS 3.3 6.2 9.8 11.9 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1778 1974 197 0.992 0.144 -0.180 3.755 0.144 0.160 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.348 0.222 -0.061 32 165 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.15 1.00 1.10 2.25 8.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.159 0.084 0.051 0.043 -0.083 -0.131 -0.074 -0.019 -0.027 0.029 PACF 0.159 0.060 0.029 0.027 -0.101 -0.114 -0.031 0.018 -0.002 0.044 95% C.L. 0.142 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.151 0.152 0.152 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 0.160 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 0.014 0.147 0.080 -0.060 -0.033 -0.080 -0.064 -0.053 0.005 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.109 2 0.109 0.003 3 0.108 -0.013 0.147 4 0.101 -0.013 0.142 0.050 5 0.105 -0.002 0.141 0.057 -0.076 6 0.102 0.000 0.147 0.057 -0.072 -0.042 7 0.098 -0.006 0.152 0.071 -0.072 -0.032 -0.096 8 0.095 -0.007 0.150 0.074 -0.067 -0.032 -0.092 -0.033 9 0.094 -0.010 0.149 0.072 -0.065 -0.028 -0.093 -0.030 -0.025 10 0.095 -0.008 0.153 0.073 -0.063 -0.031 -0.099 -0.030 -0.028 0.041 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1092.55 1092.19 1094.19 1091.88 1093.39 1094.24 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1095.90 1096.09 1097.88 1099.76 1101.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.19 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.21 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.109 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 226012 1 0.207 0.449 2 226021 1 0.091 0.299 3 226023 1 0.222 0.458 4 226026 1 0.115 0.336 5 226028 1 0.238 0.484 6 226029 1 0.034 0.169 7 226034 1 0.229 0.479 8 226035 1 0.217 0.431 9 226036 1 0.028 0.146 10 226037 1 0.188 0.415 11 227040 1 0.267 0.512 12 227042 1 0.207 0.455 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.170 0.386 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.082 0.123 MEDIAN 1 0.207 0.440 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.122 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.028 0.146 LOWER HINGE 1 0.103 0.318 UPPER HINGE 1 0.226 0.469 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.267 0.512 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 226012 1874 1974 101 1.000 0.161 -0.222 2.868 0.177 0.037 2 226021 1847 1974 128 1.000 0.155 -0.437 3.704 0.173 -0.012 3 226023 1784 1974 191 1.000 0.191 0.276 3.732 0.208 -0.071 4 226026 1880 1974 95 1.000 0.168 0.663 3.495 0.186 -0.020 5 226028 1834 1974 141 1.000 0.152 -0.183 3.611 0.168 0.028 6 226029 1887 1974 88 1.000 0.194 0.241 3.455 0.212 -0.010 7 226034 1860 1974 115 1.000 0.190 0.107 3.242 0.220 -0.005 8 226035 1778 1974 197 1.000 0.242 0.285 3.561 0.286 -0.085 9 226036 1828 1974 147 1.000 0.200 -0.058 3.106 0.223 -0.012 10 226037 1846 1974 129 1.000 0.130 0.308 3.686 0.141 -0.050 11 227040 1873 1974 102 1.000 0.176 -0.630 4.035 0.203 -0.031 12 227042 1868 1974 107 1.000 0.207 -0.148 4.575 0.222 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.181 0.017 3.589 0.202 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.000 0.030 0.363 0.438 0.037 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.183 0.025 3.586 0.205 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.040 0.483 0.370 0.047 0.038 MINIMUM VALUE 88 1.000 0.130 -0.630 2.868 0.141 -0.085 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.158 -0.202 3.349 0.175 -0.041 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.197 0.281 3.718 0.221 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 197 1.000 0.242 0.663 4.575 0.286 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.445 0.107 0.013 0.000 3.565 0.194 0.774 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.194 SERIES 226026 AND 226036 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.774 SERIES 227040 AND 227042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.96 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 3. 15. 55. 66. RBAR 0.465 0.479 0.275 0.420 0.536 SDEV 0.000 0.118 0.178 0.142 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.068 0.046 0.019 0.018 EPS 0.741 0.850 0.787 0.896 0.933 NSS 3.3 6.2 9.8 11.9 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1778 1974 197 0.998 0.141 -0.162 3.600 0.171 -0.221 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.340 0.180 -0.047 38 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.73 1.00 1.05 1.78 6.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.220 0.009 0.020 0.055 -0.061 -0.072 -0.024 0.028 -0.012 0.009 PACF -0.220 -0.042 0.013 0.066 -0.036 -0.099 -0.071 0.006 0.007 0.019 95% C.L. 0.142 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.051 -0.222 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 -0.035 0.036 0.050 -0.072 -0.097 -0.036 0.025 -0.003 0.020 PACF -0.011 -0.035 0.035 0.049 -0.068 -0.098 -0.047 0.021 0.010 0.029 95% C.L. 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1778 1974 197 0.998 0.138 -0.114 3.529 0.144 0.094 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.094 -0.019 0.038 0.044 -0.077 -0.108 -0.044 0.021 0.003 0.025 PACF 0.094 -0.028 0.043 0.036 -0.084 -0.093 -0.033 0.028 0.012 0.032 95% C.L. 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES