RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT112P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT112P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 372 1 Lauenen BE BrŸchli LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 372 2 Switzerland Norway spruce 1500 4625-719 1701 1976 - 372 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 372011 1814 1976 163 2.500 0.446 0.284 3.025 0.193 0.075 2 372012 1810 1976 167 2.473 0.487 0.460 3.195 0.195 0.281 3 372021 1705 1976 272 2.831 0.650 0.715 4.089 0.216 0.236 4 372022 1726 1976 251 3.141 0.693 0.947 4.881 0.197 0.335 5 372031 1701 1976 276 3.424 0.912 0.645 3.433 0.157 0.720 6 372032 1709 1976 268 3.491 1.032 0.539 2.647 0.168 0.758 7 372041 1769 1976 208 3.049 0.701 0.521 3.048 0.171 0.524 8 372042 1748 1976 229 2.730 0.669 0.939 4.184 0.188 0.492 9 372051 1734 1976 243 2.632 0.671 0.060 4.946 0.224 0.420 10 372052 1755 1976 222 2.601 0.579 -0.369 3.913 0.222 0.319 11 372091 1813 1976 164 2.529 0.697 0.471 3.987 0.246 0.357 12 372092 1788 1976 189 2.422 0.653 0.193 3.561 0.241 0.417 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1701 TO 1976 276 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 221 2.819 0.683 0.450 3.742 0.202 0.411 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.373 0.160 0.372 0.724 0.029 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 2.681 0.670 0.496 3.737 0.196 0.387 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.581 0.085 0.441 1.015 0.043 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 163 2.422 0.446 -0.369 2.647 0.157 0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 178 2.514 0.615 0.239 3.121 0.180 0.300 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 3.095 0.699 0.680 4.136 0.223 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 276 3.491 1.032 0.947 4.946 0.246 0.758 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.364 0.157 0.019 -1.003 5.025 -0.205 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.205 SERIES 372032 AND 372091 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 372011 AND 372012 163 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 21. 28. 45. 66. 66. 66. 66. RBAR 0.351 0.284 0.382 0.433 0.490 0.499 0.501 0.455 SDEV 0.135 0.233 0.178 0.181 0.176 0.207 0.145 0.165 SERR 0.043 0.051 0.034 0.027 0.022 0.026 0.018 0.020 EPS 0.783 0.766 0.864 0.901 0.920 0.923 0.923 0.909 NSS 6.7 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1976 276 2.821 0.475 0.149 3.209 0.145 0.442 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.382 0.213 -0.021 84 192 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.69 1.99 1.00 1.19 3.18 16.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 226. 82. 163. 178. 260. 276. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.425 0.283 0.256 0.325 0.338 0.381 0.342 0.289 0.233 PACF 0.440 0.286 0.032 0.052 0.194 0.147 0.142 0.066 0.007 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.120 0.142 0.159 0.166 0.172 0.181 0.190 0.200 0.209 0.214 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.262 0.314 0.288 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 372011 1 0.40938279 0.05752075 0.00000000 2.45752406 2 372012 1 0.63779861 0.01678128 0.00000000 2.26083446 3 372021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00212265 2.54154491 4 372022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00267427 3.47807360 5 372031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235512 3.75056863 6 372032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00426365 4.06469250 7 372041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00172758 2.86884332 8 372042 1 2.59091806 0.10867970 0.00000000 2.63127637 9 372051 1 1.12569511 0.03291512 0.00000000 2.49358487 10 372052 1 0.21112318 0.02017506 0.00000000 2.55445123 11 372091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00444493 2.16195202 12 372092 1 1.47083330 0.04811221 0.00000000 2.26414084 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 372011 1814 1976 163 1.000 0.176 0.347 3.232 0.192 0.045 2 372012 1810 1976 167 1.000 0.187 0.545 3.219 0.194 0.173 3 372021 1705 1976 272 1.000 0.218 0.506 3.910 0.216 0.186 4 372022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.211 0.966 4.655 0.196 0.273 5 372031 1701 1976 276 1.000 0.258 0.588 3.450 0.157 0.691 6 372032 1709 1976 268 0.999 0.277 0.635 3.026 0.167 0.711 7 372041 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.224 0.361 2.975 0.171 0.501 8 372042 1748 1976 229 1.000 0.216 0.784 4.338 0.187 0.352 9 372051 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.243 0.081 5.400 0.223 0.326 10 372052 1755 1976 222 1.000 0.223 -0.346 3.905 0.221 0.311 11 372091 1813 1976 164 1.000 0.260 0.430 4.516 0.245 0.313 12 372092 1788 1976 189 1.000 0.246 0.143 4.178 0.239 0.256 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 221 1.000 0.228 0.420 3.900 0.201 0.345 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.030 0.346 0.751 0.028 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.223 0.468 3.908 0.195 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.038 0.366 1.202 0.044 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 163 0.999 0.176 -0.346 2.975 0.157 0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.214 0.245 3.225 0.179 0.221 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.252 0.611 4.427 0.222 0.427 MAXIMUM VALUE 276 1.000 0.277 0.966 5.400 0.245 0.711 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 372011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 372012 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 372021 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 372022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 372031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 372032 -67 179 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 372041 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 372042 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 372051 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 372052 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 372091 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 372092 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 372011 1814 1976 163 1.000 0.176 0.371 3.262 0.192 0.041 2 372012 1810 1976 167 1.000 0.185 0.504 3.073 0.194 0.153 3 372021 1705 1976 272 1.000 0.216 0.499 3.890 0.216 0.167 4 372022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.202 0.794 3.948 0.196 0.223 5 372031 1701 1976 276 0.995 0.189 0.519 3.599 0.157 0.442 6 372032 1709 1976 268 0.995 0.209 0.442 3.089 0.167 0.461 7 372041 1769 1976 208 0.997 0.191 0.405 3.070 0.171 0.357 8 372042 1748 1976 229 0.999 0.205 0.895 5.203 0.187 0.276 9 372051 1734 1976 243 0.999 0.222 -0.316 5.632 0.223 0.214 10 372052 1755 1976 222 0.999 0.216 -0.417 4.095 0.221 0.262 11 372091 1813 1976 164 0.998 0.240 0.065 4.129 0.245 0.219 12 372092 1788 1976 189 0.998 0.228 -0.088 4.285 0.239 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 221 0.998 0.207 0.306 3.940 0.200 0.248 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.002 0.019 0.412 0.823 0.028 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 0.999 0.207 0.423 3.919 0.195 0.221 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.002 0.030 0.523 1.031 0.044 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 163 0.995 0.176 -0.417 3.070 0.157 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 178 0.997 0.190 -0.012 3.175 0.179 0.164 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.219 0.512 4.207 0.222 0.317 MAXIMUM VALUE 276 1.000 0.240 0.895 5.632 0.245 0.461 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.444 0.104 0.013 0.173 3.066 0.226 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.226 SERIES 372031 AND 372041 208 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 372011 AND 372012 163 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 21. 28. 45. 66. 66. 66. 66. RBAR 0.295 0.304 0.397 0.439 0.530 0.544 0.523 0.481 SDEV 0.257 0.201 0.167 0.163 0.142 0.165 0.138 0.156 SERR 0.081 0.044 0.032 0.024 0.017 0.020 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.736 0.783 0.872 0.903 0.931 0.935 0.929 0.918 NSS 6.7 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1976 276 0.988 0.143 -0.011 3.457 0.144 0.195 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.174 0.074 0.068 54 222 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.47 1.01 1.12 2.59 12.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.194 0.164 -0.004 -0.042 0.066 0.091 0.192 0.130 0.090 0.017 PACF 0.194 0.131 -0.060 -0.056 0.098 0.084 0.144 0.054 0.025 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.120 0.125 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.134 0.135 0.136 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.058 0.169 0.131 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.140 0.099 -0.104 -0.115 0.011 0.039 0.205 0.085 0.090 0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.140 2 0.128 0.081 3 0.139 0.098 -0.132 4 0.126 0.108 -0.118 -0.096 5 0.133 0.116 -0.125 -0.105 0.066 6 0.130 0.120 -0.120 -0.110 0.060 0.042 7 0.123 0.110 -0.101 -0.089 0.040 0.019 0.171 8 0.118 0.109 -0.102 -0.087 0.043 0.016 0.167 0.028 9 0.117 0.100 -0.103 -0.089 0.047 0.022 0.162 0.021 0.053 10 0.115 0.100 -0.107 -0.089 0.046 0.024 0.164 0.019 0.050 0.024 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1777.54 1774.09 1774.26 1771.43 1770.85 1771.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1773.17 1766.99 1768.78 1770.01 1771.85 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.140 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.140 0.020 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 372011 1 0.002 0.041 2 372012 1 0.027 0.154 3 372021 1 0.060 0.167 4 372022 1 0.056 0.224 5 372031 1 0.226 0.443 6 372032 1 0.293 0.461 7 372041 1 0.178 0.358 8 372042 1 0.128 0.276 9 372051 1 0.055 0.214 10 372052 1 0.088 0.262 11 372091 1 0.065 0.219 12 372092 1 0.049 0.163 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.102 0.248 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.088 0.122 MEDIAN 1 0.062 0.222 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 0.041 LOWER HINGE 1 0.052 0.165 UPPER HINGE 1 0.153 0.317 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.293 0.461 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 372011 1814 1976 163 1.000 0.175 0.358 3.226 0.195 0.000 2 372012 1810 1976 167 1.000 0.183 0.468 2.972 0.208 -0.008 3 372021 1705 1976 272 1.000 0.213 0.541 3.862 0.234 -0.029 4 372022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.197 0.658 3.531 0.221 -0.018 5 372031 1701 1976 276 1.000 0.169 0.442 3.981 0.194 -0.085 6 372032 1709 1976 268 1.000 0.185 0.468 3.527 0.215 -0.143 7 372041 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.178 0.256 3.232 0.205 -0.085 8 372042 1748 1976 229 1.000 0.197 0.869 5.073 0.214 -0.065 9 372051 1734 1976 243 1.000 0.217 -0.250 5.046 0.242 -0.021 10 372052 1755 1976 222 1.000 0.209 -0.499 4.469 0.247 -0.038 11 372091 1813 1976 164 1.000 0.234 -0.060 4.074 0.272 -0.029 12 372092 1788 1976 189 1.000 0.225 -0.208 4.574 0.257 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 221 1.000 0.199 0.254 3.964 0.225 -0.045 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.000 0.021 0.415 0.707 0.025 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.197 0.400 3.921 0.218 -0.029 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.000 0.035 0.638 1.143 0.037 0.056 MINIMUM VALUE 163 1.000 0.169 -0.499 2.972 0.194 -0.143 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.181 -0.134 3.379 0.207 -0.075 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.215 0.504 4.522 0.244 -0.019 MAXIMUM VALUE 276 1.000 0.234 0.869 5.073 0.272 0.000 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.476 0.090 0.011 0.381 3.307 0.268 0.708 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.268 SERIES 372031 AND 372042 229 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.708 SERIES 372011 AND 372012 163 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 70.89 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 10. 21. 28. 45. 66. 66. 66. 66. RBAR 0.268 0.295 0.448 0.461 0.544 0.565 0.533 0.500 SDEV 0.229 0.184 0.162 0.130 0.122 0.134 0.119 0.133 SERR 0.072 0.040 0.031 0.019 0.015 0.017 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.709 0.776 0.893 0.910 0.935 0.940 0.932 0.923 NSS 6.7 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1976 276 0.992 0.138 -0.024 3.496 0.161 -0.098 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.199 0.087 0.044 51 225 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.75 1.00 1.20 1.96 11.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.098 0.110 -0.060 -0.080 0.054 0.017 0.160 0.040 0.064 -0.012 PACF -0.098 0.101 -0.041 -0.102 0.050 0.044 0.148 0.061 0.055 0.008 95% C.L. 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 -0.088 0.101 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.096 -0.057 -0.083 0.049 0.038 0.168 0.063 0.067 -0.006 PACF 0.010 0.096 -0.060 -0.092 0.063 0.053 0.149 0.052 0.051 0.005 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.126 0.127 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1701 1976 276 0.992 0.139 0.002 3.527 0.143 0.162 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.161 0.107 -0.051 -0.080 0.045 0.068 0.183 0.096 0.077 0.002 PACF 0.161 0.083 -0.083 -0.072 0.085 0.065 0.147 0.037 0.043 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.120 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.161 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.11 MINUTES