RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten ZŠnd, Tanne gesun DENSITY_MINIMUM ABAL - 605 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 840 4618-737 1822 1980 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 605022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 605031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1838 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 605032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 605041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 605081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 605082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 605102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 0.252 0.026 1.852 9.523 0.085 0.175 2 605012 1871 1980 110 0.251 0.034 1.322 5.310 0.084 0.531 3 605021 1915 1980 66 0.259 0.021 0.360 3.199 0.079 0.216 4 605022 1857 1980 124 0.268 0.021 2.002 11.667 0.061 0.386 5 605031 1828 1980 153 0.248 0.022 0.820 5.204 0.075 0.232 6 605032 1847 1980 134 0.252 0.030 1.277 6.418 0.095 0.373 7 605041 1824 1980 157 0.272 0.033 1.289 6.910 0.096 0.310 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.281 0.049 0.723 3.184 0.098 0.652 9 605051 1871 1980 110 0.270 0.028 1.907 10.230 0.076 0.257 10 605052 1871 1980 110 0.262 0.028 2.069 10.929 0.089 0.206 11 605061 1832 1980 149 0.254 0.031 1.243 5.937 0.093 0.313 12 605062 1837 1980 144 0.268 0.031 1.194 5.850 0.092 0.219 13 605071 1848 1980 133 0.258 0.033 0.967 4.868 0.092 0.378 14 605072 1849 1980 132 0.254 0.030 1.508 7.860 0.093 0.244 15 605081 1829 1980 152 0.253 0.031 0.994 4.728 0.093 0.385 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.262 0.030 2.664 18.617 0.088 0.170 17 605091 1839 1980 142 0.235 0.034 1.450 5.993 0.096 0.491 18 605092 1857 1980 124 0.223 0.026 2.396 15.106 0.091 0.220 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.257 0.027 0.682 4.097 0.072 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 0.240 0.031 1.854 6.771 0.067 0.718 21 605111 1860 1980 121 0.263 0.042 2.631 12.156 0.097 0.379 22 605112 1909 1980 72 0.266 0.038 2.383 10.792 0.105 0.149 23 605121 1843 1980 138 0.279 0.040 1.453 6.802 0.095 0.497 24 605122 1872 1980 109 0.287 0.037 1.882 8.633 0.095 0.282 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1822 TO 1980 159 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 0.259 0.031 1.538 7.949 0.088 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.014 0.007 0.632 3.814 0.011 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 131 0.259 0.031 1.451 6.786 0.092 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.016 0.006 0.860 5.254 0.014 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.223 0.021 0.360 3.184 0.061 0.149 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.252 0.028 1.094 5.257 0.081 0.219 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 147 0.268 0.034 1.954 10.511 0.095 0.439 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 0.287 0.049 2.664 18.617 0.105 0.718 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.520 0.140 0.008 -0.793 4.193 0.014 0.840 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 605062 AND 605102 136 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.840 SERIES 605042 AND 605112 72 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.410 0.661 0.691 0.419 SDEV 0.205 0.126 0.106 0.175 SERR 0.022 0.009 0.007 0.011 EPS 0.933 0.978 0.981 0.945 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.260 0.024 2.232 11.350 0.070 0.207 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.474 0.172 -0.018 46 113 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.28 1.00 1.06 1.34 10.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 38. 66. 110. 148. 159. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.206 0.173 0.085 0.196 0.017 0.118 0.031 0.081 0.088 0.100 PACF 0.206 0.136 0.028 0.162 -0.064 0.084 -0.013 0.029 0.080 0.029 95% C.L. 0.159 0.165 0.170 0.171 0.176 0.176 0.178 0.178 0.179 0.180 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.067 0.184 0.144 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 1 0.04012293 0.03148043 0.00000000 0.23933871 2 605012 1 0.23148376 0.00302055 0.00000000 0.05427155 3 605021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000209 0.25932401 4 605022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003752 0.26523936 5 605031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002850 0.24529834 6 605032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002717 0.24827676 7 605041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030782 0.29642072 8 605042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063152 0.33109996 9 605051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014548 0.26183486 10 605052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003661 0.26015013 11 605061 1 0.08495425 0.00435839 0.00000000 0.19174933 12 605062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014277 0.25763500 13 605071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001209 0.25746068 14 605072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006786 0.24965417 15 605081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014045 0.26394090 16 605082 1 0.02291846 0.03011099 0.00000000 0.25691491 17 605091 1 0.07115851 0.03070674 0.00000000 0.21941730 18 605092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009898 0.21663651 19 605101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024836 0.27703846 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 1 0.10885240 0.06017803 0.00000000 0.22661221 21 605111 1 0.12922476 0.11836410 0.00000000 0.25422803 22 605112 1 0.06505415 0.04507407 0.00000000 0.24700004 23 605121 1 0.18850903 0.20448378 0.00000000 0.27303749 24 605122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018719 0.29726809 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.096 2.103 10.966 0.084 0.025 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.108 1.179 5.751 0.084 0.286 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.082 0.362 3.202 0.078 0.213 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.078 2.028 11.991 0.059 0.388 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.089 0.867 5.257 0.074 0.235 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.123 1.250 6.222 0.094 0.407 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.111 1.909 10.632 0.096 0.170 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.139 0.989 5.867 0.097 0.467 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.102 2.068 11.061 0.076 0.230 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.109 2.110 11.057 0.088 0.202 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.114 1.491 7.855 0.092 0.200 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.113 1.319 6.051 0.092 0.192 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.127 0.978 4.869 0.091 0.375 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.119 1.547 7.855 0.092 0.237 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.120 1.068 5.098 0.091 0.361 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.111 3.013 21.998 0.088 0.134 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.120 1.487 7.663 0.095 0.305 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.118 2.476 15.569 0.090 0.203 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.096 0.742 3.935 0.072 0.436 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.082 0.901 5.198 0.067 0.299 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.139 3.342 19.881 0.096 0.184 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.124 1.828 9.392 0.103 0.008 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.120 1.495 9.280 0.094 0.352 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.127 1.744 8.469 0.094 0.261 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.111 1.596 8.963 0.087 0.257 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.017 0.711 4.737 0.011 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.114 1.493 7.855 0.091 0.236 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.023 1.020 5.508 0.014 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.078 0.362 3.202 0.059 0.008 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.099 1.028 5.504 0.081 0.196 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.122 2.048 11.012 0.094 0.356 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.139 3.342 21.998 0.103 0.467 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605031 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605032 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605061 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605062 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605082 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605101 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605112 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605121 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605122 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.092 2.350 12.370 0.084 -0.062 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.102 1.365 6.676 0.083 0.211 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.073 0.651 4.979 0.078 -0.005 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.073 1.725 10.736 0.059 0.312 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.085 0.768 4.870 0.074 0.162 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.111 0.995 5.723 0.094 0.295 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.107 1.833 10.121 0.096 0.109 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.998 0.117 1.033 6.751 0.097 0.280 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.098 2.246 11.623 0.076 0.176 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.107 2.285 12.217 0.088 0.171 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.112 1.682 9.445 0.092 0.162 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.110 1.452 6.921 0.092 0.134 13 605071 1848 1980 133 0.999 0.114 1.159 5.378 0.092 0.246 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.114 1.616 8.408 0.092 0.190 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.115 0.971 5.115 0.092 0.316 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.111 3.272 24.610 0.088 0.114 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.116 1.851 9.838 0.095 0.230 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.115 3.432 23.465 0.091 0.135 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.091 0.786 3.968 0.072 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.079 0.920 5.305 0.067 0.259 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.123 3.346 19.884 0.096 0.031 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.122 2.102 10.803 0.103 -0.033 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.117 1.437 8.349 0.094 0.325 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.123 1.982 8.581 0.095 0.216 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.105 1.719 9.839 0.087 0.182 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.015 0.806 5.589 0.011 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.111 1.649 8.495 0.092 0.183 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.021 1.160 5.663 0.013 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.998 0.073 0.651 3.968 0.059 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.095 1.014 5.550 0.081 0.124 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.116 2.174 11.213 0.094 0.270 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.123 3.432 24.610 0.103 0.383 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.594 0.098 0.006 -0.370 3.091 0.263 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.263 SERIES 605042 AND 605101 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 605051 AND 605052 110 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.461 0.691 0.715 0.464 SDEV 0.156 0.110 0.099 0.151 SERR 0.016 0.008 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.945 0.981 0.984 0.954 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.082 2.591 15.854 0.070 0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.412 0.109 -0.042 40 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.39 1.00 1.04 1.43 3.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.059 0.002 -0.088 0.068 -0.095 0.021 -0.098 -0.006 0.013 0.007 PACF 0.059 -0.002 -0.088 0.079 -0.106 0.028 -0.091 -0.016 0.034 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.000 -0.017 -0.164 0.047 -0.117 0.017 -0.140 -0.002 -0.016 -0.013 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.000 2 0.000 -0.017 3 -0.002 -0.017 -0.164 4 0.005 -0.016 -0.164 0.048 5 0.011 -0.036 -0.166 0.048 -0.126 6 0.011 -0.036 -0.167 0.048 -0.126 -0.007 7 0.010 -0.053 -0.161 0.025 -0.131 -0.005 -0.137 8 0.004 -0.054 -0.167 0.026 -0.138 -0.008 -0.137 -0.044 9 0.003 -0.056 -0.167 0.024 -0.138 -0.010 -0.137 -0.044 -0.016 10 0.002 -0.059 -0.178 0.023 -0.149 -0.008 -0.151 -0.048 -0.016 -0.081 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 974.13 976.13 978.09 975.73 977.37 976.82 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 978.81 977.80 979.49 981.45 982.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605011 0 0.004 2 605012 0 0.045 3 605021 0 0.000 4 605022 0 0.098 5 605031 0 0.027 6 605032 0 0.088 7 605041 0 0.012 8 605042 0 0.079 9 605051 0 0.031 10 605052 0 0.029 11 605061 0 0.026 12 605062 0 0.018 13 605071 0 0.060 14 605072 0 0.036 15 605081 0 0.101 16 605082 0 0.013 17 605091 0 0.053 18 605092 0 0.018 19 605101 0 0.158 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605102 0 0.069 21 605111 0 0.001 22 605112 0 0.001 23 605121 0 0.106 24 605122 0 0.048 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.047 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.041 MEDIAN 0 0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.015 UPPER HINGE 0 0.074 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.158 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.092 2.350 12.370 0.084 -0.062 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.102 1.365 6.676 0.083 0.211 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.073 0.651 4.979 0.078 -0.005 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.073 1.725 10.736 0.059 0.312 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.085 0.768 4.870 0.074 0.162 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.111 0.995 5.723 0.094 0.295 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.107 1.833 10.121 0.096 0.109 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.117 1.033 6.751 0.097 0.280 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.098 2.246 11.623 0.076 0.176 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.107 2.285 12.217 0.088 0.171 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.112 1.682 9.445 0.092 0.162 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.110 1.452 6.921 0.092 0.134 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.114 1.159 5.378 0.091 0.246 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.114 1.616 8.408 0.092 0.190 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.115 0.971 5.115 0.091 0.316 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.111 3.272 24.610 0.088 0.114 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.116 1.851 9.838 0.095 0.230 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.115 3.432 23.465 0.091 0.135 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.091 0.786 3.968 0.072 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.079 0.920 5.305 0.066 0.259 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.123 3.346 19.884 0.096 0.031 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.122 2.102 10.803 0.103 -0.033 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.117 1.437 8.349 0.094 0.325 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.123 1.982 8.581 0.095 0.216 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.105 1.719 9.839 0.087 0.182 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.015 0.806 5.589 0.011 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.111 1.649 8.495 0.091 0.183 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.021 1.160 5.663 0.013 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.073 0.651 3.968 0.059 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.095 1.014 5.550 0.081 0.124 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.116 2.174 11.213 0.094 0.270 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.123 3.432 24.610 0.103 0.383 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.594 0.098 0.006 -0.370 3.091 0.263 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.263 SERIES 605042 AND 605101 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 605051 AND 605052 110 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.461 0.691 0.715 0.464 SDEV 0.156 0.110 0.099 0.151 SERR 0.016 0.008 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.945 0.981 0.984 0.954 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.082 2.591 15.855 0.070 0.060 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.414 0.109 -0.043 40 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.38 1.00 1.04 1.42 3.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.060 0.002 -0.088 0.068 -0.095 0.021 -0.098 -0.006 0.013 0.007 PACF 0.060 -0.002 -0.088 0.080 -0.106 0.028 -0.091 -0.015 0.034 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.082 2.591 15.855 0.070 0.060 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.060 0.002 -0.088 0.068 -0.095 0.021 -0.098 -0.006 0.013 0.007 PACF 0.060 -0.002 -0.088 0.080 -0.106 0.028 -0.091 -0.015 0.034 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES