RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten ZŠnd, Tanne gesun LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 605 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 840 4618-737 1822 1980 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 605032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 605041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 605081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 605082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 3.087 0.689 0.683 4.207 0.200 0.332 2 605012 1871 1980 110 3.011 0.613 0.344 2.952 0.199 0.302 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.630 0.397 0.703 3.072 0.241 0.182 4 605022 1857 1980 124 2.497 0.644 0.346 3.205 0.228 0.454 5 605031 1828 1980 153 2.075 0.507 0.698 3.284 0.214 0.396 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.927 0.486 0.816 4.124 0.215 0.449 7 605041 1824 1980 157 2.564 0.963 1.022 4.475 0.269 0.576 8 605042 1824 1980 157 2.808 0.851 0.294 2.974 0.249 0.497 9 605051 1871 1980 110 2.684 0.609 0.866 4.576 0.187 0.348 10 605052 1871 1980 110 2.550 0.512 0.685 3.346 0.200 0.150 11 605061 1832 1980 149 2.705 0.691 0.789 4.581 0.249 0.250 12 605062 1837 1980 144 3.017 0.792 0.701 3.611 0.234 0.382 13 605071 1848 1980 133 2.121 0.514 1.138 5.587 0.220 0.220 14 605072 1849 1980 132 2.242 0.510 1.366 7.398 0.216 0.140 15 605081 1829 1980 152 2.550 0.744 0.947 3.956 0.242 0.328 16 605082 1833 1980 148 2.600 0.797 0.456 3.879 0.225 0.458 17 605091 1839 1980 142 2.456 0.779 1.020 3.707 0.225 0.550 18 605092 1857 1980 124 2.411 0.520 -0.186 2.860 0.203 0.359 19 605101 1822 1980 159 2.764 0.974 0.957 7.205 0.228 0.603 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 2.115 0.989 1.689 7.119 0.237 0.776 21 605111 1860 1980 121 3.208 0.866 2.188 12.787 0.237 0.180 22 605112 1909 1980 72 2.749 0.638 1.037 4.258 0.249 -0.030 23 605121 1843 1980 138 3.053 0.790 0.911 3.571 0.219 0.353 24 605122 1872 1980 109 3.550 0.694 0.032 3.351 0.224 0.019 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1822 TO 1980 159 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 2.599 0.690 0.813 4.587 0.225 0.345 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.443 0.168 0.501 2.195 0.020 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 132 2.582 0.690 0.803 3.917 0.225 0.351 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.583 0.278 0.451 1.264 0.024 0.255 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.630 0.397 -0.186 2.860 0.187 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 2.326 0.517 0.570 3.315 0.215 0.201 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 2.909 0.794 1.021 4.579 0.239 0.456 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 3.550 0.989 2.188 12.787 0.269 0.776 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.294 0.182 0.011 -0.623 3.816 -0.335 0.718 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.335 SERIES 605051 AND 605101 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.718 SERIES 605101 AND 605102 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.336 0.315 0.334 0.275 SDEV 0.144 0.174 0.184 0.193 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.910 0.912 0.922 0.901 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 2.605 0.455 0.770 4.536 0.154 0.382 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.338 0.168 0.265 36 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.49 1.01 1.08 1.57 14.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 38. 66. 110. 148. 159. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.187 0.293 0.360 0.237 0.208 0.159 0.291 0.247 0.216 PACF 0.379 0.050 0.243 0.215 0.035 0.067 -0.045 0.180 0.034 0.079 95% C.L. 0.159 0.180 0.185 0.196 0.212 0.219 0.224 0.226 0.236 0.242 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.146 0.379 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00431850 2.87763596 2 605012 1 1.25210643 0.03557170 0.00000000 2.70331502 3 605021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157833 1.57697439 4 605022 1 1.51571238 0.04823092 0.00000000 2.25003028 5 605031 1 0.66946822 0.02245509 0.00000000 1.88810694 6 605032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053109 1.90796530 7 605041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00654411 3.08922052 8 605042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01094134 3.67188144 9 605051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00940414 2.16243362 10 605052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00626576 2.20225024 11 605061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00211007 2.86288595 12 605062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00796202 2.44011474 13 605071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00369212 2.36864996 14 605072 1 0.60800427 0.02263778 0.00000000 2.05085397 15 605081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00842440 3.18242526 16 605082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01217954 3.50070977 17 605091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01147098 3.27644300 18 605092 1 1.06671345 0.03557822 0.00000000 2.17625308 19 605101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01269587 3.77944350 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 1 3.02537084 0.02967704 0.00000000 1.38918757 21 605111 1 0.47364438 0.14091206 0.00000000 3.18198347 22 605112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054216 2.72882247 23 605121 1 2.99799132 0.24265914 0.00000000 2.97415757 24 605122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00381976 3.33991337 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.217 0.355 3.408 0.197 0.321 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.174 -0.101 2.233 0.197 0.010 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.244 0.801 3.288 0.237 0.180 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.224 0.355 3.592 0.226 0.206 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.229 0.604 3.123 0.213 0.312 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.250 0.767 4.140 0.208 0.451 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.358 1.115 5.488 0.269 0.503 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.999 0.256 0.643 3.455 0.247 0.263 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.001 0.202 1.162 6.717 0.185 0.141 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.187 0.940 4.155 0.198 -0.043 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.252 0.671 4.197 0.248 0.229 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.001 0.239 0.558 3.151 0.232 0.252 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.227 0.896 5.411 0.219 0.172 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.216 1.484 8.593 0.214 0.056 15 605081 1829 1980 152 0.999 0.247 1.047 5.506 0.239 0.137 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.245 1.087 8.944 0.224 0.130 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.001 0.240 0.573 3.138 0.223 0.283 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.190 -0.320 3.886 0.202 0.190 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.995 0.270 0.702 5.968 0.227 0.357 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.284 0.418 3.348 0.234 0.478 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.270 2.246 13.260 0.235 0.174 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.232 1.053 4.352 0.246 -0.030 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.238 0.633 2.899 0.218 0.268 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.194 0.162 3.877 0.222 0.003 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.237 0.744 4.839 0.223 0.210 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.038 0.519 2.473 0.020 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.238 0.686 4.013 0.223 0.198 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.034 0.562 2.179 0.026 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.995 0.174 -0.320 2.233 0.185 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.217 0.488 3.318 0.210 0.133 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.251 1.050 5.497 0.236 0.297 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.001 0.358 2.246 13.260 0.269 0.503 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605031 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605032 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605061 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605062 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605082 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605101 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605112 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605121 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605122 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 0.999 0.179 -0.089 2.976 0.197 0.037 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.170 -0.057 2.195 0.197 -0.041 3 605021 1915 1980 66 0.999 0.235 0.710 2.921 0.236 0.119 4 605022 1857 1980 124 0.998 0.207 0.411 3.769 0.226 0.059 5 605031 1828 1980 153 0.999 0.213 0.503 2.913 0.213 0.192 6 605032 1847 1980 134 0.999 0.202 0.266 3.549 0.208 0.204 7 605041 1824 1980 157 0.993 0.328 1.701 9.649 0.269 0.374 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.999 0.250 0.584 3.308 0.247 0.245 9 605051 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.193 1.848 11.144 0.185 0.037 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.182 1.050 4.904 0.198 -0.081 11 605061 1832 1980 149 0.998 0.234 0.529 4.127 0.247 0.106 12 605062 1837 1980 144 0.998 0.210 0.432 3.017 0.232 0.031 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.224 0.926 5.523 0.219 0.142 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.214 1.648 9.832 0.214 0.022 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.238 0.795 4.680 0.239 0.083 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.999 0.240 1.146 9.809 0.224 0.095 17 605091 1839 1980 142 0.997 0.210 0.508 3.199 0.224 0.089 18 605092 1857 1980 124 0.999 0.176 -0.512 3.598 0.201 0.033 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.998 0.247 1.310 8.518 0.226 0.202 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 0.997 0.268 0.369 3.592 0.234 0.421 21 605111 1860 1980 121 0.998 0.257 2.002 11.438 0.235 0.119 22 605112 1909 1980 72 0.999 0.220 1.030 4.462 0.246 -0.106 23 605121 1843 1980 138 0.999 0.224 0.526 2.762 0.217 0.187 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.191 0.257 3.827 0.222 -0.057 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.999 0.221 0.746 5.238 0.223 0.105 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.001 0.035 0.632 2.981 0.020 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.999 0.217 0.556 3.798 0.224 0.092 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.001 0.041 0.708 3.912 0.025 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.993 0.170 -0.512 2.195 0.185 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.998 0.198 0.390 3.108 0.210 0.032 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.999 0.239 1.098 7.020 0.235 0.190 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.328 2.002 11.438 0.269 0.421 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.289 0.123 0.007 -0.131 4.018 -0.169 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 605011 AND 605021 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 605011 AND 605012 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.338 0.352 0.349 0.250 SDEV 0.135 0.168 0.162 0.167 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.910 0.925 0.927 0.889 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.987 0.139 0.443 4.863 0.156 0.093 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.558 0.243 -0.069 52 107 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.59 1.01 1.05 1.64 9.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.093 -0.011 0.079 0.050 -0.066 0.026 -0.114 0.023 -0.027 -0.034 PACF 0.093 -0.020 0.083 0.035 -0.073 0.036 -0.133 0.060 -0.041 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.023 0.073 0.105 -0.035 -0.054 0.175 -0.033 0.044 0.025 0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.023 2 0.022 0.072 3 0.014 0.070 0.103 4 0.019 0.073 0.103 -0.044 5 0.016 0.080 0.108 -0.043 -0.069 6 0.028 0.088 0.089 -0.057 -0.072 0.176 7 0.032 0.086 0.088 -0.055 -0.070 0.176 -0.024 8 0.033 0.081 0.090 -0.053 -0.072 0.174 -0.025 0.030 9 0.033 0.080 0.092 -0.054 -0.073 0.175 -0.024 0.030 -0.013 10 0.033 0.080 0.092 -0.056 -0.072 0.175 -0.025 0.029 -0.013 0.012 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1112.20 1114.12 1115.29 1115.61 1117.30 1118.54 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1115.57 1117.47 1119.33 1121.31 1123.28 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605011 0 0.001 2 605012 0 0.002 3 605021 0 0.015 4 605022 0 0.004 5 605031 0 0.038 6 605032 0 0.042 7 605041 0 0.141 8 605042 0 0.060 9 605051 0 0.001 10 605052 0 0.007 11 605061 0 0.011 12 605062 0 0.001 13 605071 0 0.021 14 605072 0 0.000 15 605081 0 0.007 16 605082 0 0.009 17 605091 0 0.008 18 605092 0 0.001 19 605101 0 0.043 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605102 0 0.190 21 605111 0 0.014 22 605112 0 0.012 23 605121 0 0.036 24 605122 0 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.028 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.046 MEDIAN 0 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.034 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.002 UPPER HINGE 0 0.037 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.190 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.179 -0.089 2.976 0.197 0.037 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.170 -0.057 2.195 0.197 -0.041 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.235 0.710 2.921 0.236 0.119 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.207 0.411 3.769 0.226 0.059 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.213 0.503 2.913 0.213 0.192 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.202 0.266 3.549 0.207 0.204 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.328 1.701 9.649 0.267 0.374 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.250 0.584 3.308 0.246 0.245 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.193 1.848 11.144 0.185 0.037 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.182 1.050 4.904 0.198 -0.081 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.234 0.529 4.127 0.247 0.106 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.210 0.432 3.017 0.231 0.031 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.224 0.926 5.523 0.219 0.142 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.214 1.648 9.832 0.214 0.022 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.238 0.795 4.680 0.239 0.083 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.240 1.146 9.809 0.223 0.095 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.210 0.508 3.199 0.223 0.089 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.176 -0.512 3.598 0.201 0.033 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.247 1.310 8.518 0.226 0.202 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.268 0.369 3.592 0.233 0.421 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.257 2.002 11.438 0.234 0.119 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.220 1.030 4.462 0.245 -0.106 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.224 0.526 2.762 0.217 0.187 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.191 0.257 3.827 0.222 -0.057 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.221 0.746 5.238 0.223 0.105 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.035 0.632 2.981 0.019 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.217 0.556 3.798 0.223 0.092 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.041 0.708 3.912 0.025 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.170 -0.512 2.195 0.185 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.198 0.390 3.108 0.210 0.032 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.239 1.098 7.020 0.235 0.190 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.328 2.002 11.438 0.267 0.421 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.289 0.123 0.007 -0.131 4.018 -0.169 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 605011 AND 605021 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 605011 AND 605012 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.338 0.352 0.349 0.250 SDEV 0.135 0.168 0.162 0.167 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.910 0.925 0.927 0.889 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.989 0.139 0.448 4.855 0.156 0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.558 0.243 -0.069 51 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.58 1.00 1.07 1.65 10.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.093 -0.011 0.079 0.050 -0.067 0.026 -0.114 0.022 -0.027 -0.034 PACF 0.093 -0.020 0.082 0.035 -0.074 0.036 -0.133 0.059 -0.041 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.989 0.139 0.448 4.855 0.156 0.094 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.093 -0.011 0.079 0.050 -0.067 0.026 -0.114 0.022 -0.027 -0.034 PACF 0.093 -0.020 0.082 0.035 -0.074 0.036 -0.133 0.059 -0.041 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES