RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten ZŠnd, Tanne gesun WIDTH_RING ABAL - 605 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 840 4618-737 1822 1980 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 605032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 605041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 605081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 605082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.600 0.482 0.356 3.622 0.300 0.276 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.565 0.484 0.524 3.625 0.270 0.404 3 605021 1915 1980 66 0.820 0.334 1.360 5.307 0.202 0.666 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.536 0.715 0.813 2.984 0.172 0.895 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.456 0.657 0.614 3.241 0.227 0.792 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.112 0.622 1.228 4.271 0.249 0.788 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.302 0.649 1.029 3.767 0.261 0.763 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.407 0.646 1.034 4.226 0.276 0.713 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.370 0.655 0.631 2.620 0.279 0.786 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.342 0.595 0.400 2.585 0.276 0.716 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.357 0.607 0.773 3.695 0.295 0.656 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.194 0.703 0.982 3.765 0.335 0.724 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.350 0.657 0.508 2.686 0.264 0.764 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.396 0.725 0.555 2.658 0.264 0.754 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.256 0.652 0.314 2.727 0.290 0.735 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.192 0.698 0.304 2.294 0.295 0.796 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.837 0.831 0.308 2.759 0.254 0.732 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.906 0.952 0.328 2.495 0.253 0.773 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.488 0.786 0.487 3.228 0.230 0.842 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.277 0.673 0.747 4.400 0.235 0.794 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.303 0.499 1.154 5.572 0.307 0.452 22 605112 1909 1980 72 0.839 0.246 0.072 4.139 0.360 -0.049 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.349 0.520 0.641 3.516 0.292 0.594 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.377 0.521 0.731 3.690 0.298 0.532 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1822 TO 1980 159 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.359 0.621 0.662 3.495 0.270 0.662 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.246 0.150 0.333 0.863 0.040 0.210 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 132 1.353 0.651 0.622 3.569 0.273 0.734 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.205 0.180 0.520 1.246 0.044 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.820 0.246 0.072 2.294 0.172 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.267 0.520 0.378 2.707 0.251 0.625 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.472 0.700 0.898 3.953 0.295 0.787 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.906 0.952 1.360 5.572 0.360 0.895 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.610 0.217 0.013 -0.416 1.927 0.086 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.086 SERIES 605021 AND 605122 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 605071 AND 605072 132 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.675 0.619 0.624 0.599 SDEV 0.112 0.139 0.263 0.241 SERR 0.012 0.010 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.976 0.974 0.975 0.973 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.390 0.536 0.516 3.126 0.220 0.751 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.457 0.117 0.230 61 98 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.65 1.01 1.09 1.74 3.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 38. 66. 110. 148. 159. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.746 0.654 0.603 0.539 0.474 0.484 0.431 0.438 0.393 0.369 PACF 0.746 0.220 0.136 0.030 -0.011 0.148 -0.031 0.110 -0.054 0.013 95% C.L. 0.159 0.231 0.273 0.305 0.328 0.345 0.361 0.374 0.387 0.397 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.596 0.543 0.146 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093475 1.64554381 2 605012 1 1.14115787 0.17444374 0.00000000 1.51056671 3 605021 1 1.13210201 0.10561357 0.00000000 0.66570371 4 605022 1 2.50727201 0.02105807 0.00000000 0.65533674 5 605031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01038321 2.25519347 6 605032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01369784 2.10392642 7 605041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00738102 1.88540244 8 605042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00582719 1.86716318 9 605051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01669761 2.29635358 10 605052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01305678 2.06619692 11 605061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00714522 1.89260292 12 605062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01119994 2.00616264 13 605071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01240994 2.18116546 14 605072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01370297 2.30723214 15 605081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00887146 1.92035091 16 605082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01138661 2.03288579 17 605091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01036132 2.57738376 18 605092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01980686 3.14349318 19 605101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01069447 2.34367085 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01322287 2.18319273 21 605111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00196301 1.18281817 22 605112 1 0.25370097 0.16060424 0.00000000 0.81880295 23 605121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022905 1.36475933 24 605122 1 1.64553499 0.16200630 0.00000000 1.29122376 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.301 0.389 3.676 0.297 0.269 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.299 0.732 4.641 0.268 0.340 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.278 0.258 2.906 0.197 0.605 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.001 0.249 0.684 5.628 0.171 0.568 5 605031 1828 1980 153 0.990 0.300 0.583 3.612 0.226 0.583 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.044 0.410 0.952 3.742 0.247 0.696 7 605041 1824 1980 157 0.992 0.396 0.851 3.466 0.264 0.645 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.998 0.417 0.968 3.763 0.274 0.658 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.009 0.271 0.077 3.651 0.277 0.280 10 605052 1871 1980 110 0.992 0.310 0.816 5.521 0.274 0.455 11 605061 1832 1980 149 0.995 0.368 0.543 3.294 0.294 0.545 12 605062 1837 1980 144 0.995 0.411 0.900 4.010 0.333 0.481 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.008 0.350 0.089 2.733 0.261 0.598 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.003 0.360 0.369 3.363 0.263 0.568 15 605081 1829 1980 152 0.973 0.443 0.624 3.677 0.286 0.650 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.958 0.407 0.585 2.758 0.292 0.651 17 605091 1839 1980 142 0.987 0.386 0.383 2.713 0.251 0.651 18 605092 1857 1980 124 0.986 0.317 0.224 3.232 0.251 0.515 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.975 0.407 0.573 2.689 0.229 0.748 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 0.994 0.325 0.355 3.072 0.233 0.607 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.372 0.861 4.493 0.304 0.438 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.288 0.084 4.254 0.356 -0.098 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.384 0.616 3.471 0.290 0.588 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.334 0.248 3.163 0.295 0.466 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.996 0.349 0.532 3.647 0.268 0.521 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.015 0.055 0.282 0.798 0.040 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.999 0.355 0.578 3.542 0.271 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.009 0.101 0.468 0.770 0.044 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.958 0.249 0.077 2.689 0.171 -0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.991 0.301 0.306 3.117 0.249 0.460 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.401 0.774 3.887 0.293 0.648 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.044 0.443 0.968 5.628 0.356 0.748 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605031 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605032 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605061 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605062 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605082 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605101 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605112 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605121 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605122 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 0.998 0.288 0.252 3.598 0.297 0.222 2 605012 1871 1980 110 0.998 0.277 0.561 4.159 0.269 0.265 3 605021 1915 1980 66 0.994 0.237 0.119 3.244 0.196 0.464 4 605022 1857 1980 124 0.997 0.210 -0.123 3.111 0.171 0.457 5 605031 1828 1980 153 0.998 0.268 0.323 3.402 0.226 0.475 6 605032 1847 1980 134 0.993 0.293 0.494 3.979 0.246 0.467 7 605041 1824 1980 157 0.996 0.351 0.556 3.025 0.265 0.555 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.993 0.386 0.943 4.172 0.274 0.610 9 605051 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.259 0.074 4.029 0.277 0.234 10 605052 1871 1980 110 0.999 0.288 0.429 4.630 0.274 0.381 11 605061 1832 1980 149 0.998 0.341 0.399 3.320 0.294 0.478 12 605062 1837 1980 144 0.994 0.381 0.872 4.144 0.333 0.404 13 605071 1848 1980 133 0.991 0.311 -0.040 2.714 0.262 0.501 14 605072 1849 1980 132 0.994 0.337 0.351 3.408 0.263 0.510 15 605081 1829 1980 152 0.992 0.318 0.741 5.035 0.284 0.413 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.996 0.301 0.249 3.477 0.293 0.350 17 605091 1839 1980 142 0.995 0.276 0.004 3.665 0.250 0.422 18 605092 1857 1980 124 0.998 0.298 0.147 3.442 0.251 0.474 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.995 0.321 0.585 3.506 0.229 0.601 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 0.998 0.319 0.501 3.632 0.233 0.589 21 605111 1860 1980 121 0.993 0.305 0.540 3.773 0.304 0.236 22 605112 1909 1980 72 0.999 0.281 -0.019 4.413 0.357 -0.156 23 605121 1843 1980 138 0.993 0.350 0.401 3.404 0.290 0.510 24 605122 1872 1980 109 0.996 0.306 0.293 4.097 0.295 0.363 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.996 0.304 0.361 3.724 0.268 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.002 0.042 0.282 0.539 0.040 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 0.996 0.303 0.375 3.615 0.271 0.460 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.004 0.050 0.415 0.717 0.045 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.991 0.210 -0.123 2.714 0.171 -0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.994 0.279 0.133 3.403 0.248 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.998 0.329 0.548 4.120 0.293 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 0.999 0.386 0.943 5.035 0.357 0.610 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.630 0.099 0.006 -0.437 3.587 0.261 0.854 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.261 SERIES 605011 AND 605102 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.854 SERIES 605071 AND 605072 132 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.699 0.662 0.674 0.648 SDEV 0.102 0.114 0.130 0.130 SERR 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.979 0.978 0.980 0.978 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.987 0.241 0.148 4.022 0.226 0.382 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.521 0.144 0.043 41 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.55 1.02 1.07 1.62 23.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.221 0.112 0.047 -0.119 -0.037 -0.176 -0.063 -0.096 -0.109 PACF 0.379 0.090 0.002 -0.014 -0.167 0.061 -0.169 0.077 -0.061 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.159 0.180 0.187 0.188 0.189 0.191 0.191 0.195 0.195 0.197 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.151 0.380 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.360 0.221 0.134 0.092 -0.131 -0.030 -0.235 -0.082 -0.099 -0.076 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.360 2 0.322 0.105 3 0.319 0.096 0.029 4 0.319 0.094 0.023 0.021 5 0.323 0.098 0.043 0.090 -0.216 6 0.338 0.092 0.040 0.083 -0.238 0.068 7 0.355 0.034 0.060 0.093 -0.215 0.150 -0.244 8 0.382 0.018 0.084 0.082 -0.222 0.147 -0.284 0.111 9 0.386 0.008 0.089 0.075 -0.219 0.150 -0.283 0.124 -0.035 10 0.384 0.013 0.076 0.081 -0.229 0.153 -0.279 0.125 -0.017 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1324.24 1304.13 1304.37 1306.23 1308.16 1302.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1303.83 1296.03 1296.05 1297.86 1299.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.360 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.98 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.92 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.360 0.130 0.047 0.017 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605011 1 0.070 0.228 2 605012 1 0.077 0.265 3 605021 1 0.223 0.471 4 605022 1 0.223 0.471 5 605031 1 0.231 0.480 6 605032 1 0.254 0.469 7 605041 1 0.325 0.560 8 605042 1 0.379 0.612 9 605051 1 0.058 0.235 10 605052 1 0.146 0.382 11 605061 1 0.252 0.486 12 605062 1 0.180 0.405 13 605071 1 0.279 0.501 14 605072 1 0.286 0.511 15 605081 1 0.175 0.413 16 605082 1 0.141 0.350 17 605091 1 0.181 0.423 18 605092 1 0.232 0.478 19 605101 1 0.364 0.602 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605102 1 0.357 0.594 21 605111 1 0.080 0.236 22 605112 1 0.025 -0.157 23 605121 1 0.265 0.511 24 605122 1 0.132 0.363 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.206 0.412 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.101 0.166 MEDIAN 1 0.223 0.470 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.136 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.025 -0.157 LOWER HINGE 1 0.136 0.357 UPPER HINGE 1 0.272 0.506 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.379 0.612 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.280 0.213 3.997 0.329 -0.026 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.267 0.338 4.334 0.313 -0.021 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.208 -0.245 3.723 0.228 -0.019 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.185 -0.383 3.675 0.206 0.027 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.234 -0.136 3.758 0.277 -0.006 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.258 0.424 4.735 0.309 -0.099 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.290 0.234 3.664 0.345 -0.074 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.305 0.351 3.592 0.350 -0.051 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.251 -0.022 3.984 0.304 -0.012 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.266 0.181 4.880 0.307 -0.005 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.297 0.145 3.430 0.360 -0.077 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.349 0.755 4.349 0.395 -0.056 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.269 -0.129 3.305 0.323 -0.097 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.289 0.347 4.925 0.323 -0.094 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.289 0.310 4.510 0.342 -0.029 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.282 0.081 3.353 0.341 -0.051 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.250 -0.100 4.408 0.292 0.021 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.261 0.116 4.251 0.292 0.032 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.256 0.555 4.441 0.283 -0.031 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.256 0.504 4.310 0.296 -0.047 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.297 0.400 3.876 0.344 -0.038 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.277 0.070 4.620 0.326 0.002 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.301 0.482 3.981 0.343 -0.038 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.285 0.292 4.225 0.341 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.271 0.199 4.097 0.315 -0.033 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.033 0.274 0.473 0.041 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.273 0.224 4.111 0.323 -0.030 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.033 0.351 0.726 0.049 0.048 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.185 -0.383 3.305 0.206 -0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.256 0.024 3.699 0.294 -0.054 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.290 0.375 4.424 0.343 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.349 0.755 4.925 0.395 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.687 0.071 0.004 -0.154 2.959 0.498 0.871 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.498 SERIES 605101 AND 605112 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.871 SERIES 605061 AND 605062 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.699 0.723 0.752 0.714 SDEV 0.097 0.085 0.082 0.083 SERR 0.010 0.006 0.005 0.005 EPS 0.979 0.983 0.986 0.984 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.995 0.222 -0.146 4.417 0.270 -0.093 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.465 0.114 0.038 53 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.42 1.00 1.07 1.49 3.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.093 0.050 0.005 0.058 -0.177 0.085 -0.196 0.048 -0.054 0.023 PACF -0.093 0.042 0.014 0.058 -0.170 0.052 -0.179 0.022 -0.026 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.166 0.167 0.173 0.173 0.173 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.043 0.016 0.043 -0.167 0.051 -0.187 0.026 -0.048 0.000 PACF 0.004 0.043 0.015 0.041 -0.169 0.051 -0.182 0.037 -0.030 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.159 0.164 0.164 0.169 0.169 0.170 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.995 0.239 0.114 4.098 0.220 0.380 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.378 0.176 0.071 0.009 -0.145 -0.066 -0.184 -0.068 -0.089 -0.097 PACF 0.378 0.038 -0.009 -0.024 -0.166 0.050 -0.173 0.076 -0.070 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.159 0.180 0.184 0.185 0.185 0.188 0.188 0.193 0.193 0.194 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.144 0.378 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES