RUN: SWIT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: SWIT113X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 605 1 Susten ZŠnd, Tanne gesun DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 605 2 Switzerland silver fir, European fir 840 4618-737 1822 1980 - 605 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 605032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 605041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 605081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1976 1976 / 1980 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 605082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 0.947 0.043 -0.613 3.539 0.040 0.364 2 605012 1871 1980 110 0.936 0.042 -0.054 3.123 0.040 0.361 3 605021 1915 1980 66 0.917 0.052 -1.353 4.907 0.052 0.285 4 605022 1857 1980 124 0.970 0.039 -0.766 3.898 0.044 0.090 5 605031 1828 1980 153 0.967 0.065 -0.279 3.166 0.047 0.551 6 605032 1847 1980 134 0.955 0.058 -0.644 3.995 0.062 0.113 7 605041 1824 1980 157 0.955 0.058 -0.757 3.714 0.046 0.529 8 605042 1824 1980 157 0.962 0.069 -0.885 3.378 0.046 0.652 9 605051 1871 1980 110 0.941 0.039 -0.015 2.356 0.044 0.152 10 605052 1871 1980 110 0.950 0.035 -0.151 3.259 0.037 0.166 11 605061 1832 1980 149 0.956 0.053 -2.196 14.847 0.050 0.187 12 605062 1837 1980 144 0.959 0.044 -0.490 3.140 0.046 0.230 13 605071 1848 1980 133 0.977 0.054 -0.492 3.024 0.037 0.599 14 605072 1849 1980 132 0.971 0.050 -0.538 3.291 0.040 0.537 15 605081 1829 1980 152 0.922 0.072 -1.422 6.477 0.050 0.562 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.924 0.094 -1.989 8.270 0.062 0.587 17 605091 1839 1980 142 0.936 0.051 -0.232 3.221 0.050 0.287 18 605092 1857 1980 124 0.913 0.047 -0.159 2.370 0.049 0.270 19 605101 1822 1980 159 0.934 0.075 -1.470 6.841 0.049 0.646 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 0.925 0.084 -1.680 6.071 0.057 0.616 21 605111 1860 1980 121 0.980 0.054 -0.414 3.191 0.051 0.322 22 605112 1909 1980 72 0.960 0.047 -0.293 2.749 0.048 0.178 23 605121 1843 1980 138 0.956 0.044 -1.366 8.732 0.042 0.213 24 605122 1872 1980 109 0.963 0.064 -2.404 9.707 0.042 0.620 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1822 TO 1980 159 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 0.949 0.056 -0.861 4.886 0.047 0.380 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.019 0.015 0.705 2.981 0.007 0.195 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 132 0.955 0.052 -0.629 3.458 0.047 0.341 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.027 0.021 1.108 3.121 0.008 0.375 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.913 0.035 -2.404 2.356 0.037 0.090 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.935 0.044 -1.394 3.153 0.042 0.200 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.963 0.065 -0.286 6.274 0.050 0.575 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 0.980 0.094 -0.015 14.847 0.062 0.652 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.385 0.208 0.013 -0.650 3.195 -0.231 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.231 SERIES 605041 AND 605122 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 605081 AND 605082 148 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.361 0.321 0.405 0.411 SDEV 0.206 0.222 0.172 0.209 SERR 0.022 0.015 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.918 0.914 0.942 0.944 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 0.954 0.036 -0.209 2.665 0.032 0.391 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.159 -0.060 0.099 64 95 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.31 1.00 1.11 2.42 7.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 38. 66. 110. 148. 159. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.388 0.320 0.336 0.247 0.304 0.317 0.311 0.282 0.271 0.200 PACF 0.388 0.200 0.194 0.045 0.152 0.128 0.112 0.047 0.052 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.159 0.181 0.195 0.209 0.216 0.226 0.237 0.247 0.255 0.263 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.239 0.265 0.152 0.213 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036910 0.96519297 2 605012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058684 0.96847874 3 605021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010333 0.91305363 4 605022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009810 0.97572780 5 605031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040623 0.99866527 6 605032 1 0.09644400 0.00867167 0.00000000 0.89748877 7 605041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061359 1.00380445 8 605042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111211 1.05034053 9 605051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020950 0.95244539 10 605052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009544 0.94479400 11 605061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024999 0.97485673 12 605062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007648 0.95306623 13 605071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089154 1.03672588 14 605072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062890 1.01303375 15 605081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055845 0.96126282 16 605082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00108121 1.00320876 17 605091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056145 0.97662270 18 605092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055393 0.94808811 19 605101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082658 1.00052857 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128632 1.01348042 21 605111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068710 1.02199590 22 605112 1 0.10630929 0.13783945 0.00000000 0.94959331 23 605121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001274 0.95491171 24 605122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099629 0.90795618 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.044 -0.892 4.407 0.040 0.315 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.040 -0.197 2.694 0.040 0.189 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.056 -1.352 4.934 0.051 0.279 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.040 -0.895 4.240 0.043 0.082 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.065 -0.565 3.450 0.047 0.499 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.056 -1.023 4.577 0.060 0.012 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.053 -0.958 4.284 0.046 0.366 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.050 -0.810 3.941 0.046 0.260 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.041 0.003 2.584 0.044 0.128 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.036 -0.156 3.219 0.037 0.158 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.054 -2.362 15.734 0.050 0.145 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.046 -0.419 3.070 0.046 0.227 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.043 -0.892 4.961 0.036 0.345 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.045 -0.765 3.367 0.040 0.391 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.079 -1.364 5.436 0.053 0.617 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.093 -1.727 6.852 0.062 0.546 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.048 -0.467 3.298 0.050 0.117 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.047 -0.398 2.722 0.049 0.127 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.071 -1.162 5.859 0.048 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.076 -1.291 5.725 0.056 0.454 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.049 -0.326 3.201 0.051 0.137 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.044 -0.492 3.082 0.048 0.009 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.046 -1.372 8.749 0.041 0.212 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.060 -1.929 9.092 0.042 0.511 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.053 -0.909 4.978 0.047 0.278 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.014 0.587 2.887 0.007 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.049 -0.892 4.262 0.047 0.243 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.014 0.879 2.370 0.009 0.290 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.036 -2.362 2.584 0.036 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.044 -1.322 3.210 0.042 0.133 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.058 -0.443 5.580 0.050 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.093 0.003 15.734 0.062 0.617 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 605011 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 605012 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 605021 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 605022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 605031 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 605032 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 605041 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 605042 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 605051 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 605052 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 605061 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 605062 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 605071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 605072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 605081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 605082 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 605091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 605092 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 605101 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 605102 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 605111 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 605112 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 605121 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 605122 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.037 -0.529 3.554 0.040 0.089 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.037 -0.291 2.887 0.040 0.090 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.048 -0.638 4.430 0.051 -0.027 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.038 -1.010 4.302 0.043 -0.053 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.051 -0.252 2.984 0.047 0.236 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.054 -1.002 4.813 0.060 -0.082 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.047 -1.033 4.781 0.046 0.186 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.044 -1.085 5.381 0.046 0.044 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.038 -0.122 2.716 0.044 -0.008 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.034 -0.363 3.518 0.037 0.068 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.052 -2.477 16.554 0.050 0.068 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.040 -0.315 2.878 0.046 -0.013 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.040 -1.086 5.471 0.036 0.250 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.039 -0.598 3.463 0.040 0.183 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.061 -0.772 4.643 0.052 0.356 16 605082 1833 1980 148 0.999 0.068 -1.324 6.875 0.062 0.162 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.046 -0.427 3.290 0.050 0.058 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.046 -0.416 2.742 0.049 0.108 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.060 -0.668 4.685 0.048 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.072 -0.693 5.199 0.056 0.401 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.045 -0.427 3.329 0.051 -0.003 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.041 -0.261 3.035 0.048 -0.125 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.045 -1.365 8.691 0.041 0.161 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.052 -2.297 11.865 0.042 0.359 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.047 -0.811 5.087 0.047 0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.010 0.600 3.221 0.007 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.046 -0.653 4.366 0.047 0.089 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.013 0.669 2.128 0.009 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.999 0.034 -2.477 2.716 0.036 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.039 -1.059 3.162 0.042 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.052 -0.390 5.290 0.050 0.211 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.072 -0.122 16.554 0.062 0.401 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.345 0.145 0.009 0.044 2.835 -0.038 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 605091 AND 605122 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 605101 AND 605102 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.386 0.313 0.392 0.401 SDEV 0.204 0.197 0.166 0.201 SERR 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.926 0.912 0.939 0.941 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.030 -0.196 2.315 0.032 0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.184 -0.071 0.104 65 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.45 1.00 1.10 2.55 11.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.095 0.043 0.064 -0.081 0.044 0.045 0.025 0.036 0.061 -0.044 PACF 0.095 0.035 0.057 -0.094 0.057 0.039 0.025 0.014 0.059 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.006 0.059 0.086 0.000 0.057 0.005 -0.050 -0.031 0.069 0.004 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.006 2 0.006 0.059 3 0.001 0.058 0.085 4 0.001 0.058 0.085 -0.004 5 0.001 0.054 0.082 -0.004 0.047 6 0.002 0.054 0.083 -0.004 0.047 -0.002 7 0.001 0.057 0.082 0.001 0.050 -0.002 -0.056 8 -0.001 0.057 0.084 0.001 0.054 0.000 -0.056 -0.041 9 0.002 0.061 0.084 -0.003 0.054 -0.006 -0.061 -0.041 0.076 10 0.001 0.062 0.085 -0.003 0.053 -0.006 -0.062 -0.042 0.076 0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 640.35 642.34 643.79 644.63 646.63 648.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 650.27 651.77 653.50 654.58 656.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 605011 0 0.008 2 605012 0 0.008 3 605021 0 0.001 4 605022 0 0.003 5 605031 0 0.060 6 605032 0 0.007 7 605041 0 0.036 8 605042 0 0.002 9 605051 0 0.000 10 605052 0 0.005 11 605061 0 0.005 12 605062 0 0.000 13 605071 0 0.064 14 605072 0 0.034 15 605081 0 0.136 16 605082 0 0.031 17 605091 0 0.003 18 605092 0 0.012 19 605101 0 0.163 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 605102 0 0.181 21 605111 0 0.000 22 605112 0 0.016 23 605121 0 0.026 24 605122 0 0.129 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.039 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.056 MEDIAN 0 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.045 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.048 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.181 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 605011 1885 1980 96 1.000 0.037 -0.529 3.554 0.040 0.089 2 605012 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.037 -0.291 2.887 0.040 0.090 3 605021 1915 1980 66 1.000 0.048 -0.638 4.430 0.051 -0.027 4 605022 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.038 -1.010 4.302 0.043 -0.053 5 605031 1828 1980 153 1.000 0.051 -0.252 2.984 0.047 0.236 6 605032 1847 1980 134 1.000 0.054 -1.002 4.813 0.060 -0.082 7 605041 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.047 -1.033 4.781 0.046 0.186 8 605042 1824 1980 157 1.000 0.044 -1.085 5.381 0.046 0.044 9 605051 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.038 -0.122 2.716 0.044 -0.008 10 605052 1871 1980 110 1.000 0.034 -0.363 3.518 0.037 0.068 11 605061 1832 1980 149 1.000 0.052 -2.478 16.554 0.050 0.068 12 605062 1837 1980 144 1.000 0.040 -0.315 2.878 0.046 -0.013 13 605071 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.040 -1.086 5.471 0.036 0.250 14 605072 1849 1980 132 1.000 0.039 -0.598 3.463 0.040 0.183 15 605081 1829 1980 152 1.000 0.061 -0.772 4.643 0.052 0.356 16 605082 1833 1980 148 1.000 0.068 -1.324 6.875 0.061 0.162 17 605091 1839 1980 142 1.000 0.046 -0.427 3.290 0.050 0.058 18 605092 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.046 -0.416 2.742 0.049 0.108 19 605101 1822 1980 159 1.000 0.060 -0.668 4.685 0.048 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 605102 1845 1980 136 1.000 0.072 -0.693 5.199 0.056 0.401 21 605111 1860 1980 121 1.000 0.045 -0.427 3.329 0.051 -0.003 22 605112 1909 1980 72 1.000 0.041 -0.261 3.035 0.048 -0.125 23 605121 1843 1980 138 1.000 0.045 -1.365 8.691 0.041 0.161 24 605122 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.052 -2.297 11.865 0.042 0.359 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 128 1.000 0.047 -0.811 5.087 0.047 0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.000 0.010 0.600 3.221 0.007 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.046 -0.653 4.366 0.047 0.089 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.013 0.669 2.128 0.009 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.034 -2.478 2.716 0.036 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.039 -1.059 3.162 0.042 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.052 -0.390 5.290 0.050 0.211 MAXIMUM VALUE 159 1.000 0.072 -0.122 16.554 0.061 0.401 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.345 0.145 0.009 0.044 2.835 -0.038 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 605091 AND 605122 109 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 605101 AND 605102 136 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 91. 210. 231. 276. RBAR 0.386 0.313 0.392 0.401 SDEV 0.204 0.197 0.166 0.201 SERR 0.021 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.926 0.912 0.939 0.941 NSS 19.9 22.6 23.7 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.030 -0.196 2.316 0.032 0.096 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.182 -0.070 0.103 66 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.46 1.00 1.09 2.56 11.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.095 0.043 0.064 -0.081 0.043 0.045 0.024 0.036 0.061 -0.044 PACF 0.095 0.035 0.057 -0.095 0.057 0.038 0.025 0.014 0.059 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1980 159 1.001 0.030 -0.196 2.316 0.032 0.096 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.095 0.043 0.064 -0.081 0.043 0.045 0.024 0.036 0.061 -0.044 PACF 0.095 0.035 0.057 -0.095 0.057 0.038 0.025 0.014 0.059 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES